Post by andrewp on Dec 21, 2023 14:13:01 GMT
This one is a joint effort between myself and @froome, which must make me @eastsomerset!
Until 1950 there was a parliamentary constituency which took its admirably concise title from the north east Somerset market town of Frome. In addition to the titular town the constituency also included what was then an active Somerset coalfield around the towns of Midsomer Norton and Radstock. From 1918 until 1950 it was a hard fought marginal parliamentary constituency between the Conservatives and Labour and the relatively new Labour party managed 3 wins in 1923, 1929 and 1945.
In 1950, the Frome constituency was split in two with Frome itself being placed into the Wells constituency and that town disappeared from parliamentary constituency names until 1983 when re emerging in partnership with Somerton, whilst the coalfield was placed in the new North Somerset consituency.
Now, 73 years later a constituency is reformed named Frome and East Somerset, and which is quite similar to the Frome constituency abolished in 1950, and of which the main towns are once again Frome, Midsomer Norton and Radstock.
Compared to the Frome constituency which was abolished all those years ago the area has moved geographically just a little to the South.
About 42500 or 60% of the electorate come from Frome and the far north east corner of the administrative county of Somerset. Apart from Frome itself, there are no other towns in this area. The remaining 27500 electors or 40% are from the BANES ( Bath and North East Somerset) council area.
Perhaps unlike the other crossing of the Somerset and former county of Avon border near Weston Super Mare, this crossing leads to a sensible constituency. Frome is quite geographically isolated within the administrative county of Somerset and has stronger links to Bath, North East Somerset and the West Wiltshire towns including Trowbridge and Chippenham than it does to Taunton ‘ the county town at the end of the world’ to some in Frome, and Bridgwater in the M5 corridor.
Starting with the larger half of the seat, that from the Somerset Council area, this territory is currently part of the Somerton and Frome constituency which was gained by the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives at a July 2023 by election. We start with Frome, a town with a population of 26000. It was traditionally a woollen cloth making town and in the 18th century Daniel Defoe estimated that Frome was larger than nearby Bath. Frome has a vibrant arts scene and is rapidly becoming more alternative. It has a good range of Independent shops and restaurants. In the past Frome itself has had a Labour vote, with Frome South electing a Labour county councillor in the 1980s and as recently as 1999, the party won 3 of the 5 Mendip district council wards in the town. In more recent years, the Green Party has started to do very well in Frome- the town increasingly has Green vibes - winning both Frome East and West divisions in the inaugural elections to the Somerset unitary council in 2022. Frome North which includes more villages elected 1 Liberal Democrat and 1 Conservative councillor last year.
The rest of the Somerset council section of the seat contains about 15000 rural electors in territory to the West and South West of Frome, stretching down from the edge of the Mendip hills onto the flatter levels and reaching into the centre of Somerset at West Pennard and Ditcheat near, but not including, the Glastonbury festival site. All of this territory will vote Conservative at general elections, but would have been carried by the Liberal Democrat’s at the 2023 parliamentary by election. In the 2022 Somerset elections, the two large rural divisions mostly covering this area were split with the Liberal Democrat’s winning Mendip South and the Conservatives winning Mendip Central and East.
The B&NES area included covers the whole area south of the Bath city borders, running from the edge of the Georgian city and as far west as Midsomer Norton and Marksbury. It is a diverse area, in which no party can lay claim to overall dominance. There are 7 wards which elect 13 councillors, and in 2023, when the Lib Dems swept most of B&NES, this was their weakest area. The current councillors split 4 Lib Dem, 4 Labour, 3 Independent and 2 Conservative.
The northern area, nearest to Bath, is the most rural, a very attractive area of hills and deep valleys, with many small villages, and is still largely agricultural, but with a mainly commuting and retired population in the many affluent villages (though probably much less commuting from here than further south). This area is covered by one ward, Bathavon South, which is now fairly safely Lib Dem in local elections, though in 2015 and earlier the predecessor wards (which were smaller) had both Lib Dem and Conservative representatives. If Labour campaign hard, this would probably be their weakest area, while if the Greens campaign hard they would get a reasonable vote here.
The rest of the area covers what used to be the Somerset coalfield, and there are still relics of the coal mining industry here, not least in the Somerset coalfield museum in Radstock. The mines had all closed by the end of the 1950s, and different parts of the area have gone in different ways demographically and politically.
Midsomer Norton and Radstock are between them are made up of 4 wards (Radstock, Westfield and the two Midsomer Norton wards). Radstock and Westfield have retained the legacy of the mining industry and are still relatively strongly Labour at local elections, comprising mostly terraced housing surrounded by council housing. Westfield is very safe for Labour, and would probably vote for them even in a very targeted Lib Dem campaign. Radstock has become more diverse (in 2019 it elected one Labour and one Lib Dem) and all 4 parties get a decent vote here, though Labour are ahead and now have both councillors. Midsomer Norton has an attractive town centre and large suburban estates, which is largely populated by commuters. Its southern ward, Midsomer Norton Redfield, now has 2 Conservative councillors (out of 3 across the whole of B&NES), with Labour a clear second. Midsomer Norton North now has one Lib Dem and one Independent councillor, with both Conservatives and Labour close behind.
The other 2 wards cover ex mining villages between Bath and these towns. The northernmost is Peasedown St John, which is now a large village populated by a commuting population. It elected 2 Independents in 2023, with Labour close behind and the other 3 parties a little way back. In the early 2010s it was a Lib Dem heartland, but their councillors split from the party to form a localist Independent party, who the current councillors will have developed from.
All these wards apart from Bathavon South have potential for Labour to do well in the general election. The Lib Dems could poll fairly well across all these wards in a strong campaign, but will find it difficult to challenge Labour in those areas with the strongest mining legacy. From the Green perspective, apart from Radstock, the area is fairly weak.
The demographics here are fairly average as a whole. It is slightly older than average but not much, with a younger demographic particularly in Frome, and is slightly more owner occupied than average, It is 96.8% white.
This constituency would undoubtedly have been won comfortably by the Conservatives in 2019, but would have been marginal in the past. We await a notional result here but it would be something in the region of 50% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat, 20% Labour. There are areas of strength for the Liberal Democrat’s, Labour and the Greens. The challenge will be for one of those parties to emerge as the main opposition to the high profile Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg. Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat winner of the Somerton and Frome by election, has decided not to run here, but in Glastonbury and Somerton instead. Labour will presumably rise on the national tide and should receive a respectable vote whilst the Liberal Democrat’s probably have the highest non Conservative vote ceiling here and probably start in 2nd place. It may even be a fascinating close 3 way contest in 2024.
Until 1950 there was a parliamentary constituency which took its admirably concise title from the north east Somerset market town of Frome. In addition to the titular town the constituency also included what was then an active Somerset coalfield around the towns of Midsomer Norton and Radstock. From 1918 until 1950 it was a hard fought marginal parliamentary constituency between the Conservatives and Labour and the relatively new Labour party managed 3 wins in 1923, 1929 and 1945.
In 1950, the Frome constituency was split in two with Frome itself being placed into the Wells constituency and that town disappeared from parliamentary constituency names until 1983 when re emerging in partnership with Somerton, whilst the coalfield was placed in the new North Somerset consituency.
Now, 73 years later a constituency is reformed named Frome and East Somerset, and which is quite similar to the Frome constituency abolished in 1950, and of which the main towns are once again Frome, Midsomer Norton and Radstock.
Compared to the Frome constituency which was abolished all those years ago the area has moved geographically just a little to the South.
About 42500 or 60% of the electorate come from Frome and the far north east corner of the administrative county of Somerset. Apart from Frome itself, there are no other towns in this area. The remaining 27500 electors or 40% are from the BANES ( Bath and North East Somerset) council area.
Perhaps unlike the other crossing of the Somerset and former county of Avon border near Weston Super Mare, this crossing leads to a sensible constituency. Frome is quite geographically isolated within the administrative county of Somerset and has stronger links to Bath, North East Somerset and the West Wiltshire towns including Trowbridge and Chippenham than it does to Taunton ‘ the county town at the end of the world’ to some in Frome, and Bridgwater in the M5 corridor.
Starting with the larger half of the seat, that from the Somerset Council area, this territory is currently part of the Somerton and Frome constituency which was gained by the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives at a July 2023 by election. We start with Frome, a town with a population of 26000. It was traditionally a woollen cloth making town and in the 18th century Daniel Defoe estimated that Frome was larger than nearby Bath. Frome has a vibrant arts scene and is rapidly becoming more alternative. It has a good range of Independent shops and restaurants. In the past Frome itself has had a Labour vote, with Frome South electing a Labour county councillor in the 1980s and as recently as 1999, the party won 3 of the 5 Mendip district council wards in the town. In more recent years, the Green Party has started to do very well in Frome- the town increasingly has Green vibes - winning both Frome East and West divisions in the inaugural elections to the Somerset unitary council in 2022. Frome North which includes more villages elected 1 Liberal Democrat and 1 Conservative councillor last year.
The rest of the Somerset council section of the seat contains about 15000 rural electors in territory to the West and South West of Frome, stretching down from the edge of the Mendip hills onto the flatter levels and reaching into the centre of Somerset at West Pennard and Ditcheat near, but not including, the Glastonbury festival site. All of this territory will vote Conservative at general elections, but would have been carried by the Liberal Democrat’s at the 2023 parliamentary by election. In the 2022 Somerset elections, the two large rural divisions mostly covering this area were split with the Liberal Democrat’s winning Mendip South and the Conservatives winning Mendip Central and East.
The B&NES area included covers the whole area south of the Bath city borders, running from the edge of the Georgian city and as far west as Midsomer Norton and Marksbury. It is a diverse area, in which no party can lay claim to overall dominance. There are 7 wards which elect 13 councillors, and in 2023, when the Lib Dems swept most of B&NES, this was their weakest area. The current councillors split 4 Lib Dem, 4 Labour, 3 Independent and 2 Conservative.
The northern area, nearest to Bath, is the most rural, a very attractive area of hills and deep valleys, with many small villages, and is still largely agricultural, but with a mainly commuting and retired population in the many affluent villages (though probably much less commuting from here than further south). This area is covered by one ward, Bathavon South, which is now fairly safely Lib Dem in local elections, though in 2015 and earlier the predecessor wards (which were smaller) had both Lib Dem and Conservative representatives. If Labour campaign hard, this would probably be their weakest area, while if the Greens campaign hard they would get a reasonable vote here.
The rest of the area covers what used to be the Somerset coalfield, and there are still relics of the coal mining industry here, not least in the Somerset coalfield museum in Radstock. The mines had all closed by the end of the 1950s, and different parts of the area have gone in different ways demographically and politically.
Midsomer Norton and Radstock are between them are made up of 4 wards (Radstock, Westfield and the two Midsomer Norton wards). Radstock and Westfield have retained the legacy of the mining industry and are still relatively strongly Labour at local elections, comprising mostly terraced housing surrounded by council housing. Westfield is very safe for Labour, and would probably vote for them even in a very targeted Lib Dem campaign. Radstock has become more diverse (in 2019 it elected one Labour and one Lib Dem) and all 4 parties get a decent vote here, though Labour are ahead and now have both councillors. Midsomer Norton has an attractive town centre and large suburban estates, which is largely populated by commuters. Its southern ward, Midsomer Norton Redfield, now has 2 Conservative councillors (out of 3 across the whole of B&NES), with Labour a clear second. Midsomer Norton North now has one Lib Dem and one Independent councillor, with both Conservatives and Labour close behind.
The other 2 wards cover ex mining villages between Bath and these towns. The northernmost is Peasedown St John, which is now a large village populated by a commuting population. It elected 2 Independents in 2023, with Labour close behind and the other 3 parties a little way back. In the early 2010s it was a Lib Dem heartland, but their councillors split from the party to form a localist Independent party, who the current councillors will have developed from.
All these wards apart from Bathavon South have potential for Labour to do well in the general election. The Lib Dems could poll fairly well across all these wards in a strong campaign, but will find it difficult to challenge Labour in those areas with the strongest mining legacy. From the Green perspective, apart from Radstock, the area is fairly weak.
The demographics here are fairly average as a whole. It is slightly older than average but not much, with a younger demographic particularly in Frome, and is slightly more owner occupied than average, It is 96.8% white.
This constituency would undoubtedly have been won comfortably by the Conservatives in 2019, but would have been marginal in the past. We await a notional result here but it would be something in the region of 50% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat, 20% Labour. There are areas of strength for the Liberal Democrat’s, Labour and the Greens. The challenge will be for one of those parties to emerge as the main opposition to the high profile Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg. Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat winner of the Somerton and Frome by election, has decided not to run here, but in Glastonbury and Somerton instead. Labour will presumably rise on the national tide and should receive a respectable vote whilst the Liberal Democrat’s probably have the highest non Conservative vote ceiling here and probably start in 2nd place. It may even be a fascinating close 3 way contest in 2024.
