Post by therealriga on Dec 20, 2023 14:53:15 GMT
Lagan Valley was one of the new constituencies that emerged as part of Northern Ireland’s increase in representation for the 1983 election. The constituency has been a safe unionist seat, only distinguishing itself with a few results coming close to breaking records: a 38% swing in a general election and a winning vote share of over 90%, though both were down to very specific circumstances.
The constituency is centred around Lisburn, NI’s fourth largest urban area, which gained city status in 2002. Dromore is the second largest area, with just 6,000 people. In the main the constituency consists of comfortable Belfast commuter territory. In 2017, Lagan Valley had the second lowest number of people claiming unemployment benefits, and the second lowest number of overall benefit claimants. The percentage of those with higher education qualifications was slightly above the regional average and those with health conditions well below average. None of the 48 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Lagan Valley are ranked in the 10% most deprived in NI, with small areas of deprivation in the Old Warren and Hillhall wards of Lisburn. The Catholic community is spread across the constituency, but more around Lisburn, with the highest concentration in the Tonagh estate. In the areas south of Lisburn it struggles to pass 5%. While Lagan Valley escaped the worst of the Troubles, Lisburn did serve as a base of operations for the loyalist paramilitary UDA, whose political wing won seats on the council in the 1990s and narrowly missed winning an Assembly seat here in 1998.
At the 2011 census, the average age was 38.6 years, the sixth highest. 19% of the population had a Catholic community background, the fourth lowest in NI. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 53.1% backed leave: the fourth highest leave vote in NI.
When first proposed in January 1980, it was to be called “Lagan” and was to include the whole of Lisburn council plus three wards around the town of Dromore in Banbridge council. During the local enquiries, it was instead called Lagan Valley, sharing its name with a short-lived former Northern Ireland parliament constituency which had covered a smaller area. Dromore was excluded and one Castlereagh ward, Carryduff, was awkwardly tagged on instead. The 1994-1995 review reversed this, excluding Carryduff and adding Dromore, though also removing the Irish Republican West Belfast overspill estates of Poleglass and Twinbrook. The changes which took place for the 2010 election reduced the small nationalist vote even further, transferring the Glenavy area to South Antrim and Dunmurry and the Lagmore estate to Belfast West. The latter change involved splitting the Derryaghy ward, making this constituency and Belfast West the only ones in the UK which deliberately contained a split ward. These changes reduced the nationalist vote by over 6%. For the 2010 election it consisted of 23.5 of Lisburn’s 30 wards, plus 4 Banbridge council wards. Since the 2014 local government reorganisation it has consisted of most of Lisburn & Castlereagh council plus the Dromore wards from Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon council.
The constituency was a UUP stronghold until the 1998 Good Friday Agreement era. Lisburn council was one of the few councils which saw single party control, with the UUP having a majority of seats from 1989 to 1997. On Banbridge council, UUP control lasted even longer: from its 1973 creation until 2001. The DUP surpassed the UUP in 2005, solidifying their local lead after that until faltering in 2019, losing seats to the UUP in both Lisburn DEAs and Downshire East.
From 2014 to 2019 there was only one nationalist councillor in the constituency, and even that was debatable since he drew greater support from the part of Killultagh DEA (Glenavy) which is in South Antrim. The centrist Alliance Party has usually counted this as one of their better areas, often benefitting from nationalist tactical voting.
Results at Westminster level have mirrored those at local level. Most of Lagan Valley had come from the hugely oversized South Antrim constituency and indeed it was a closer successor to that constituency than the constituency which has borne the name since 1983. As a result, South Antrim MP and UUP leader James Molyneaux chose to follow more of his voters into this constituency, beating the DUP comfortably in 1983. With the UUP-DUP electoral pact in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement in operation for the rest of the 1980s, he was able to enjoy huge majorities: beating the Workers’ Party by 90%-10% in a two-way contest in the 1986 election and receiving 70% of the vote the following year. Molyneaux was succeeded by Jeffrey Donaldson for the 1997 election. Despite the DUP contesting the constituency for the first time since 1983, Donaldson won by nearly 17,000.
Subsequently, Donaldson emerged as one of the fiercest critics of UUP leader David Trimble following the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. As a result, he was the only UUP MP who improved his position relative to the DUP in 2001. In December 2003 Donaldson quit the UUP and defected to the DUP the following month. Despite the change of allegiance, he received a similar vote share, resulting in a nominal swing from UUP to DUP of 38.1% at the 2005 election. Donaldson held on comfortably at subsequent elections and became the longest serving Northern Ireland MP in 2019. However, that election saw him record the largest drop in vote share of any DUP MP with his majority cut from over 19,000 to 6,499 votes. This came about as a result of a surge for the Alliance Party, who nearly tripled their vote. While Donaldson’s majority still looks comfortable, and there are very few votes for Alliance to squeeze, he can no longer rest as comfortably as before. The boundary changes are also more favourable to Alliance, with the heavily nationalist ward of Aghagallon being added from Upper Bann. Magheralin ward is also added from the latter constituency. To make room for these, Lagan Valley sheds the Derriaghy and Drumbo wards to Belfast constituencies. Though the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 locals saw further Alliance advances, the DUP were still over 5,000 votes ahead of Alliance and Donaldson will be tough to beat.
The constituency is centred around Lisburn, NI’s fourth largest urban area, which gained city status in 2002. Dromore is the second largest area, with just 6,000 people. In the main the constituency consists of comfortable Belfast commuter territory. In 2017, Lagan Valley had the second lowest number of people claiming unemployment benefits, and the second lowest number of overall benefit claimants. The percentage of those with higher education qualifications was slightly above the regional average and those with health conditions well below average. None of the 48 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Lagan Valley are ranked in the 10% most deprived in NI, with small areas of deprivation in the Old Warren and Hillhall wards of Lisburn. The Catholic community is spread across the constituency, but more around Lisburn, with the highest concentration in the Tonagh estate. In the areas south of Lisburn it struggles to pass 5%. While Lagan Valley escaped the worst of the Troubles, Lisburn did serve as a base of operations for the loyalist paramilitary UDA, whose political wing won seats on the council in the 1990s and narrowly missed winning an Assembly seat here in 1998.
At the 2011 census, the average age was 38.6 years, the sixth highest. 19% of the population had a Catholic community background, the fourth lowest in NI. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 53.1% backed leave: the fourth highest leave vote in NI.
When first proposed in January 1980, it was to be called “Lagan” and was to include the whole of Lisburn council plus three wards around the town of Dromore in Banbridge council. During the local enquiries, it was instead called Lagan Valley, sharing its name with a short-lived former Northern Ireland parliament constituency which had covered a smaller area. Dromore was excluded and one Castlereagh ward, Carryduff, was awkwardly tagged on instead. The 1994-1995 review reversed this, excluding Carryduff and adding Dromore, though also removing the Irish Republican West Belfast overspill estates of Poleglass and Twinbrook. The changes which took place for the 2010 election reduced the small nationalist vote even further, transferring the Glenavy area to South Antrim and Dunmurry and the Lagmore estate to Belfast West. The latter change involved splitting the Derryaghy ward, making this constituency and Belfast West the only ones in the UK which deliberately contained a split ward. These changes reduced the nationalist vote by over 6%. For the 2010 election it consisted of 23.5 of Lisburn’s 30 wards, plus 4 Banbridge council wards. Since the 2014 local government reorganisation it has consisted of most of Lisburn & Castlereagh council plus the Dromore wards from Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon council.
The constituency was a UUP stronghold until the 1998 Good Friday Agreement era. Lisburn council was one of the few councils which saw single party control, with the UUP having a majority of seats from 1989 to 1997. On Banbridge council, UUP control lasted even longer: from its 1973 creation until 2001. The DUP surpassed the UUP in 2005, solidifying their local lead after that until faltering in 2019, losing seats to the UUP in both Lisburn DEAs and Downshire East.
From 2014 to 2019 there was only one nationalist councillor in the constituency, and even that was debatable since he drew greater support from the part of Killultagh DEA (Glenavy) which is in South Antrim. The centrist Alliance Party has usually counted this as one of their better areas, often benefitting from nationalist tactical voting.
Results at Westminster level have mirrored those at local level. Most of Lagan Valley had come from the hugely oversized South Antrim constituency and indeed it was a closer successor to that constituency than the constituency which has borne the name since 1983. As a result, South Antrim MP and UUP leader James Molyneaux chose to follow more of his voters into this constituency, beating the DUP comfortably in 1983. With the UUP-DUP electoral pact in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement in operation for the rest of the 1980s, he was able to enjoy huge majorities: beating the Workers’ Party by 90%-10% in a two-way contest in the 1986 election and receiving 70% of the vote the following year. Molyneaux was succeeded by Jeffrey Donaldson for the 1997 election. Despite the DUP contesting the constituency for the first time since 1983, Donaldson won by nearly 17,000.
Subsequently, Donaldson emerged as one of the fiercest critics of UUP leader David Trimble following the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. As a result, he was the only UUP MP who improved his position relative to the DUP in 2001. In December 2003 Donaldson quit the UUP and defected to the DUP the following month. Despite the change of allegiance, he received a similar vote share, resulting in a nominal swing from UUP to DUP of 38.1% at the 2005 election. Donaldson held on comfortably at subsequent elections and became the longest serving Northern Ireland MP in 2019. However, that election saw him record the largest drop in vote share of any DUP MP with his majority cut from over 19,000 to 6,499 votes. This came about as a result of a surge for the Alliance Party, who nearly tripled their vote. While Donaldson’s majority still looks comfortable, and there are very few votes for Alliance to squeeze, he can no longer rest as comfortably as before. The boundary changes are also more favourable to Alliance, with the heavily nationalist ward of Aghagallon being added from Upper Bann. Magheralin ward is also added from the latter constituency. To make room for these, Lagan Valley sheds the Derriaghy and Drumbo wards to Belfast constituencies. Though the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 locals saw further Alliance advances, the DUP were still over 5,000 votes ahead of Alliance and Donaldson will be tough to beat.
