Post by therealriga on Dec 20, 2023 9:24:25 GMT
South Antrim has existed since 1950, with an earlier, smaller incarnation existing from 1885 to 1918. In both incarnations it has been a safe Unionist constituency. Until the millennium it was a safe UUP constituency, but since then it has been a marginal seat between the UUP and DUP.
Though the constituency has significant rural sections, much of it is urban and suburban, functioning as commuter territory for North Belfast. From east to west, the constituency begins at dormitory communities in the North Belfast suburbs and then stretches out to the largest settlement: the county town of Antrim. It then follows the north shore of Lough Neagh to Toome. From north to south it begins north of Ballyclare, passes Aldergrove, location of Belfast International Airport, before ending at Glenavy, a few miles north of Lisburn.
The Belfast commuter territory consists of estates such as Carnmoney and Mossley, which developed rapidly in the 1970s as people fled the violence of the Troubles. Further west, the Mallusk area has seen rapid recent growth in new housing developments, with its proximity to Belfast and industrial zone providing a good base for commuters. In the first decade of the 21st century Mallusk’s electorate grew from 2,000 to over 5,000. The more rural area north of this has also seen increases, with the largest town, Ballyclare, seeing a 13% increase. This area is also exceptionally Protestant. 4 of the 5 wards in the Ballyclare DEA are in the 15 with the lowest Catholic % in Northern Ireland with 5% or less and even the 5th only manages 6%.
The county town of Antrim has traditionally been a more working-class town and has seen rapid growth in the last half century, firstly with new developments in the south east of the town (the Protestant Stiles estate) in the 1970s and more recently with an influx of newcomers from Belfast. Between 2001 and 2011 Antrim saw a 17% increase in its population. In more recent times, the town has gained unwanted publicity for its social problems, being often mentioned with Ballymena in a “heroin belt” with associated criminality.
South of Antrim, the village of Crumlin has also seen rapid expansion, becoming a popular new living place for better off former residents of nationalist West Belfast. In the decade to 2011, Crumlin experienced a 20% growth in population.
In South Antrim at the 2011 census, 31.9% of the population had a Catholic community background, the seventh lowest figure in NI. There were concentrations of Catholics in the south around Crumlin (80.3%) and Glenavy (84.2%.) Another pocket is found to the west of Antrim town: 55% in Randalstown and 91% in Toome. Antrim itself was 34.1% Catholic. However, east of the town and around Ballyclare, the area is overwhelmingly Protestant. Doagh’s figure of 2.5% Catholic is the lowest in NI, while similarly low figures are found in Ballyclare (5.3%) Ballyrobert (4.9%) and Parkgate (5.6%.) The newer estates between Mallusk and Glengormley are increasingly Catholic, while Carnmoney and Mossley were traditionally more loyalist, especially the latter. In common with most other Protestant majority constituencies, South Antrim backed Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum, albeit narrowly: 50.4%.
In general, South Antrim is a prosperous constituency. None of the constituency’s wards were in the 10% most deprived in NI. The unemployment claimant count in 2015 was the lowest of NI’s 18. Only one ward, Antrim’s Farranshane, exceeded 5% unemployment. Owner occupancy rates in some of the Newtownabbey areas such as Burnthill exceeded 90%. Crumlin reached 80% with Ballyclare at 73% and Antrim slightly below the NI average at 64%.
When recreated in 1950, South Antrim was a huge constituency, including the town of Lisburn and stretching to Larne Lough in the east. By the 1970 general election, the electorate had passed 143,000, probably the second highest electorate a constituency had ever reached, behind the inter-war Harrow constituency. For the 1974 election, nearly 20,000 voters around the town of Carrickfergus were transferred to North Antrim, but South kept growing, reaching 132,000 at the 1982 regional election. The boundary changes for the 1983 election were substantial, with the southern end around Lisburn forming the new Lagan Valley constituency and the eastern part of Newtownabbey going to East Antrim. The 1983 constituency contained only 43% of its predecessor: the whole of Antrim council and 12 of Newtownabbey’s 21 wards. The former council was a UUP stronghold until 2005. The party maintained rare majority control from 1973 to 1981 and 1989 to 1993. However, the DUP, Alliance and SDLP always maintained a presence, each usually holding 2 or 3 of the council's 19 seats. From 1993 on Sinn Féin built up their strength from 1 to 4 councillors. Newtownabbey was also UUP led, though only with a plurality and the DUP, Alliance and Independent Unionists were always able to maintain a base. The constituency was mostly unchanged in 1997, only losing the Jordanstown ward to East Antrim. Changes for the 2010 election were more substantial, ceding 6 wards in the south of Newtownabbey around Glengormley to Belfast North, while gaining the Glenavy ward from Lagan Valley.
Elections before 1983 were a walkover for the UUP. They had one of the last uncontested Westminster elections in 1951 and, in 1959, polled over 95% of the vote against a Sinn Féin candidate to win by over 50,000. From 1970, the MP was Jim Molyneaux, who would go on to lead the UUP.
In 1983, Molyneaux decided to follow the Lagan Valley section, becoming MP there, and the new South Antrim UUP candidate Clifford Forsythe kept a solid majority of nearly 7,000 over the DUP. Lack of DUP opposition for the rest of the century meant that he was able to win with majorities between 16,000 and 25,000.
Forsythe, a former local footballer, died in April 2000. His death came at a time of heightened tensions between the two major Unionist parties following the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The DUP selected William McCrea, who had served as MP for neighbouring Mid Ulster until losing his seat at the previous general election. The UUP selected David Burnside, who, like UUP leader Trimble, had been a candidate for the more hardline Vanguard Party. McCrea managed to harness Unionist discontent and win by 822 votes in the by-election.
In the following year’s general election, Burnside was able to turn the tables to beat McCrea, however his majority was scarcely larger: 1,011. This allowed the DUP to maintain their focus and they regained the seat in 2005, with McCrea winning by over 3,000.
The UUP, now in a regional alliance with the NI Conservatives, heavily targeted the seat at the 2010 election, however, UUP leader Reg Empey, yet another member of the 1975 Vanguard cohort, was only able to cut McCrea’s majority to 1,183.
Now standing again in their own right, the UUP retook the seat in 2015 with another narrow majority: Danny Kinahan beat McCrea by 949 votes. His time as MP was shortlived. The new DUP candidate, Paul Girvan won over 3,000 in 2017. The Alliance Party surge of 2019 saw both Unionist parties’ votes fall, with Girvan maintaining a lead of 2,689 over Kinahan.
The constituency remains marginal and Kinahan is generally seen as being one of the more moderate UUP members, however his inability to attract more tactical votes does not bode well for his party and the prevailing winds here seem to be in the DUP’s favour, making this a DUP leaning marginal with both Alliance and Sinn Féinm despite recent increases for both, still well behind. The boundary changes see mostly minor tinkering in the Newtownabbey area to harmonise ward boundaries and will not affect the parties' strength in any significant way.
Though the constituency has significant rural sections, much of it is urban and suburban, functioning as commuter territory for North Belfast. From east to west, the constituency begins at dormitory communities in the North Belfast suburbs and then stretches out to the largest settlement: the county town of Antrim. It then follows the north shore of Lough Neagh to Toome. From north to south it begins north of Ballyclare, passes Aldergrove, location of Belfast International Airport, before ending at Glenavy, a few miles north of Lisburn.
The Belfast commuter territory consists of estates such as Carnmoney and Mossley, which developed rapidly in the 1970s as people fled the violence of the Troubles. Further west, the Mallusk area has seen rapid recent growth in new housing developments, with its proximity to Belfast and industrial zone providing a good base for commuters. In the first decade of the 21st century Mallusk’s electorate grew from 2,000 to over 5,000. The more rural area north of this has also seen increases, with the largest town, Ballyclare, seeing a 13% increase. This area is also exceptionally Protestant. 4 of the 5 wards in the Ballyclare DEA are in the 15 with the lowest Catholic % in Northern Ireland with 5% or less and even the 5th only manages 6%.
The county town of Antrim has traditionally been a more working-class town and has seen rapid growth in the last half century, firstly with new developments in the south east of the town (the Protestant Stiles estate) in the 1970s and more recently with an influx of newcomers from Belfast. Between 2001 and 2011 Antrim saw a 17% increase in its population. In more recent times, the town has gained unwanted publicity for its social problems, being often mentioned with Ballymena in a “heroin belt” with associated criminality.
South of Antrim, the village of Crumlin has also seen rapid expansion, becoming a popular new living place for better off former residents of nationalist West Belfast. In the decade to 2011, Crumlin experienced a 20% growth in population.
In South Antrim at the 2011 census, 31.9% of the population had a Catholic community background, the seventh lowest figure in NI. There were concentrations of Catholics in the south around Crumlin (80.3%) and Glenavy (84.2%.) Another pocket is found to the west of Antrim town: 55% in Randalstown and 91% in Toome. Antrim itself was 34.1% Catholic. However, east of the town and around Ballyclare, the area is overwhelmingly Protestant. Doagh’s figure of 2.5% Catholic is the lowest in NI, while similarly low figures are found in Ballyclare (5.3%) Ballyrobert (4.9%) and Parkgate (5.6%.) The newer estates between Mallusk and Glengormley are increasingly Catholic, while Carnmoney and Mossley were traditionally more loyalist, especially the latter. In common with most other Protestant majority constituencies, South Antrim backed Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum, albeit narrowly: 50.4%.
In general, South Antrim is a prosperous constituency. None of the constituency’s wards were in the 10% most deprived in NI. The unemployment claimant count in 2015 was the lowest of NI’s 18. Only one ward, Antrim’s Farranshane, exceeded 5% unemployment. Owner occupancy rates in some of the Newtownabbey areas such as Burnthill exceeded 90%. Crumlin reached 80% with Ballyclare at 73% and Antrim slightly below the NI average at 64%.
When recreated in 1950, South Antrim was a huge constituency, including the town of Lisburn and stretching to Larne Lough in the east. By the 1970 general election, the electorate had passed 143,000, probably the second highest electorate a constituency had ever reached, behind the inter-war Harrow constituency. For the 1974 election, nearly 20,000 voters around the town of Carrickfergus were transferred to North Antrim, but South kept growing, reaching 132,000 at the 1982 regional election. The boundary changes for the 1983 election were substantial, with the southern end around Lisburn forming the new Lagan Valley constituency and the eastern part of Newtownabbey going to East Antrim. The 1983 constituency contained only 43% of its predecessor: the whole of Antrim council and 12 of Newtownabbey’s 21 wards. The former council was a UUP stronghold until 2005. The party maintained rare majority control from 1973 to 1981 and 1989 to 1993. However, the DUP, Alliance and SDLP always maintained a presence, each usually holding 2 or 3 of the council's 19 seats. From 1993 on Sinn Féin built up their strength from 1 to 4 councillors. Newtownabbey was also UUP led, though only with a plurality and the DUP, Alliance and Independent Unionists were always able to maintain a base. The constituency was mostly unchanged in 1997, only losing the Jordanstown ward to East Antrim. Changes for the 2010 election were more substantial, ceding 6 wards in the south of Newtownabbey around Glengormley to Belfast North, while gaining the Glenavy ward from Lagan Valley.
Elections before 1983 were a walkover for the UUP. They had one of the last uncontested Westminster elections in 1951 and, in 1959, polled over 95% of the vote against a Sinn Féin candidate to win by over 50,000. From 1970, the MP was Jim Molyneaux, who would go on to lead the UUP.
In 1983, Molyneaux decided to follow the Lagan Valley section, becoming MP there, and the new South Antrim UUP candidate Clifford Forsythe kept a solid majority of nearly 7,000 over the DUP. Lack of DUP opposition for the rest of the century meant that he was able to win with majorities between 16,000 and 25,000.
Forsythe, a former local footballer, died in April 2000. His death came at a time of heightened tensions between the two major Unionist parties following the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The DUP selected William McCrea, who had served as MP for neighbouring Mid Ulster until losing his seat at the previous general election. The UUP selected David Burnside, who, like UUP leader Trimble, had been a candidate for the more hardline Vanguard Party. McCrea managed to harness Unionist discontent and win by 822 votes in the by-election.
In the following year’s general election, Burnside was able to turn the tables to beat McCrea, however his majority was scarcely larger: 1,011. This allowed the DUP to maintain their focus and they regained the seat in 2005, with McCrea winning by over 3,000.
The UUP, now in a regional alliance with the NI Conservatives, heavily targeted the seat at the 2010 election, however, UUP leader Reg Empey, yet another member of the 1975 Vanguard cohort, was only able to cut McCrea’s majority to 1,183.
Now standing again in their own right, the UUP retook the seat in 2015 with another narrow majority: Danny Kinahan beat McCrea by 949 votes. His time as MP was shortlived. The new DUP candidate, Paul Girvan won over 3,000 in 2017. The Alliance Party surge of 2019 saw both Unionist parties’ votes fall, with Girvan maintaining a lead of 2,689 over Kinahan.
The constituency remains marginal and Kinahan is generally seen as being one of the more moderate UUP members, however his inability to attract more tactical votes does not bode well for his party and the prevailing winds here seem to be in the DUP’s favour, making this a DUP leaning marginal with both Alliance and Sinn Féinm despite recent increases for both, still well behind. The boundary changes see mostly minor tinkering in the Newtownabbey area to harmonise ward boundaries and will not affect the parties' strength in any significant way.
