Post by Robert Waller on Dec 18, 2023 14:00:07 GMT
This is largely based on collating the previous work of MacShimidh (he is the first person 'I' below) with some additions and updates by myself
Before the boundary changes, Glasgow North was the smallest seat in Scotland (in acreage, not in electorate) - a left-winger’s paradise. It is now considerably expanded, and even more composed of an extraordinary variety of differing neighbourhoods. Although nearly a quarter of the seat in its ‘west end’ section has been shifted into Glasgow West, it has been extended in two directions, to the south gaining 23% of the abolished Glasgow Central, the second largest chunk of that seat and covering much of the heart of the city, and to the east taking 23% of Glasgow NE, including perhaps the most fearsomely deprived parts of the whole of Glasgow.
This seat can now be roughly divided into three parts – those parts lying within Glasgow’s West End, the city centre, and those parts lying further north and east. The West End is a loosely defined area concentrated mainly around Argyle Street, Byres Road and Great Western Road. In recent decades it has become the most gentrified and over-priced area in the city. The West End almost feels like a separate city from Glasgow itself, and it is possible to live here and go for days without hearing a proper Glaswegian accent. For this reason, it is held in low regard by many “real” Glaswegians, who see it (somewhat fairly) as being full of pretentious students and outsiders. The West End is partly covered by this seat, though significantly less so after the boundary changes that remove most (15,600 electors) of the west-end ward of Partick East & Kelvindale including the neighbourhoods of Partick, Partickhill, Dowanhill and Hyndland, to the new Glasgow West.
Still in the North seat, though, the University of Glasgow is the crown jewel of the West End, and it lies next to the River Kelvin. This is part of the Hillhead ward, at one time the last redoubt of Glaswegian Conservatism but now a hotbed of student politics (the ward’s occupational figures revealed 32.5% full time students in the last available census figures) and an area of strength for the Greens. Although there are many trendy bars and restaurants in this area, the housing here is largely a bit crap, with some unscrupulous landlords taking advantage of clueless students. The section of the Woodlands in this seat contains some of the sketchiest areas of the West End in my opinion. Still overwhelmingly student dominated but a bit dodgy. Walking down West Prince's Street late at night is the only time I ever felt unsafe living in Glasgow! Overall, the West End is a staunchly left-wing area, with an increasing level of support for the Greens: Hillhead was the one ward in the city where they took the most first preferences in May 2022, an impressive 36% compared with 29% for the SNP and only 22% for Labour. The Conservatives were down to just 6.7% in the Hillhead ward in which they had once been so strong. In general elections, though, it is likely that most unionists will tend to stick with Labour.
Of the section gained from Glasgow Central, the northwestern-most corner is perhaps its wealthiest area, as it is home to the gorgeous Park Circus which sits on a hill overlooking Kelvingrove Park. It also contains a large portion of the West End which runs from the Kelvingrove Art Gallery, down the trendy, bohemian Argyle Street, and terminates in the Finnieston area. Finnieston is a former working-class area most famous for being the birthplace of Billy Connolly. It is today almost completely gentrified and unrecognisable from when he was born, although the Finnieston Crane still stands next to the Clyde as a monument to Glasgow’s shipbuilding past.
Heading east, we come to the M8 motorway and the Anderston district, which serves as the eastern boundary of the West End. On the other side of the motorway is Glasgow City Centre and some of the city’s busiest and most famous streets which serve as its central business district: Sauchiehall Street, Buchanan Street and St. Vincent Street. Glasgow’s most iconic sights are also here, such as George Square, the Merchant City, the statue of Wellington with a cone on his head and many others, though eastern parts of the city centre like the cathedral and the necropolis are now in the East and North East constituencies. Like most city centres, relatively few people live here, but the Merchant City is known for having many large and luxurious flats. Politically this is a marginal area between Labour and the SNP, but with such a young studenty population (the ward had 42% full time students among its residents in 2011) the Greens also do well here. In the most recent city council elections in May 2022, the central Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward, the vast majority of which has been transferred into the North constituency, gave 33% of its first preferences to the SNP, 30% to Labour, and 26% to the Greens.
Going north from the Botanic Gardens, by the time we get to Maryhill Road the character of this constituency shifts quite noticeably. This part of Glasgow North – which features the areas of Maryhill and Summerston – is more traditionally working-class and stereotypically Glaswegian. Geographically, the main feature here is a grotty section of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Partick Thistle’s Firhill Stadium is also located here – a fair walk from Partick, mind. Firhill is essentially an extension of Maryhill and is home to the huge student accommodation complex on Murano Street. Wyndford is a pretty rough area that contains the only high rise flats in this ward if I remember correctly The brilliant comedy Still Game was filmed in Maryhill (fictional Craiglang), and although Maryhill and Summerston have historically had a bad reputation, the reality today is that they are about as safe and developed as anywhere else in Glasgow. Indeed, plenty of students live here for the cheaper accommodation. Somewhat surprisingly, the northernmost extremity of Glasgow North contains a substantial section of agriculture and has more farms than any other Glasgow seat. Before 2015, this northern half of the seat was far more monolithically Labour than the West End, and though they have since been usurped by the SNP, they still have substantial support here. In Maryhill ward in May 2022 the SNP were 8% ahead of Labour, 42% to 34% - the strongest Nationalist showing within the new lines of the North constituency.
The section of Glasgow NE that has been transferred into North is its northwestern-most corner, on the banks of the Forth and Clyde Canal. North of the canal lies an expanse of agricultural ground – among the only such land in Glasgow – but to the south lie the interlinked communities of Lambhill, Milton, Possilpark and Ruchill. Once an industrial powerhouse centred around the Saracen Foundry, these communities are today collectively the most deprived in Glasgow, with a high crime rate and a high incidence of health problems. Unemployment is also remarkably high, Possilpark has the lowest life expectancy of anywhere in the city, and the legacy of a heroin epidemic in the 80s and 90s is still very present in this area. Sadly, this is by some distance modern Glasgow’s worst area, although Ruchill is starting to develop a better reputation among younger people for its cheap rented accommodation and proximity to the West End. This grim territory is in the Canal ward, where in 2022 the SNP took 38% of first preferences to Labour’s 35%. That this is far from a middle class area is indicated by the Green share of little more than 5%. One difference between the newly arrived Canal ward and the rest of the North seat is that a clear majority of its population identifying as Christian in the census returns are Roman Catholic, and there are very few other religions recorded, unlike the Buddhists, Hindus and Muslims of the wards near the city centre. Also, it still had a little over 50% living in social rented housing in the 2011 census.
Overall North will remain an urban constituency, consisting in part of a trendy, bohemian, university area. It is a young seat, with more than two-fifths of the population aged 18-35. It is one of Scotland’s most multicultural seats, being only 86.6% white. , in 2011, and it will be even less so now, including because of the effect of the boundary changes: the central Anderston/City ward was only 76.6% white in 2011, even less than Hillhead ward at 81.9%. In 2016 Glasgow North had an astronomically high Remain vote of 78% - the fifth-highest anywhere in the UK. Additionally, it also voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014, albeit by a small margin. If ever there was a Scottish version of Islington North, Glasgow North must be it.
Despite being the successor of the seat that gave us George Galloway, Glasgow North’s representatives have been rather boring. Its first MP was Labour’s Ann McKechin, whose only claim to fame is that she served for a year as Miliband’s Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, before being replaced by fellow Glaswegian Margaret Curran. Her SNP successor, Patrick Grady, was similarly low-profile, being the Chief Whip of the SNP at Westminster – surely one of the easiest jobs in politics! - until March 2021, when he left that position and then went through a period of suspension from the party that lasted from June to December 2022. Alison Thewlis, the SNP MP for the abolished Glasgow Central, has been selected to contest the North seat rather than Grady.
When we think of the Glasgow seats, we tend to think of Labour strongholds that fell to the SNP and are now somewhat marginal. This narrative broadly works for this seat, but there are some important footnotes. This was always Labour’s weakest seat in the city, and the Lib Dems put up very respectable showings back when they could count on the student vote. In 2005 and 2010, they were able to put this seat on the very edge of the playing field, although it would be a stretch to call the seat a marginal at that time. There is a case to be made that the SNP owe their success here to Lib Dem switchers even more so than Labour ones – the Lib Dems’ fall here in 2015 was even more dramatic than Labour’s. And unlike Labour, there seems no prospect of them ever getting back to where they were. This group of young, disaffected Lib Dems have stuck with the Nats in general elections so far. This could be what saved Grady in 2017 when Labour made a strong resurgence.
The reasons for Labour’s recovery in this seat are threefold. Firstly, this is the sort of constituency where Corbyn and Corbynism went down well. As mentioned, the demographic similarities between this seat and Islington North are considerable. Secondly, Labour has produced a strong local candidate who stood here in 2017 and 2019. Even in 2019, Scottish Labour’s nadir, their vote here held up better than anywhere else in Scotland. Finally, the presence of the Greens here hurts the SNP, especially in 2017 when Patrick Harvie stood for parliament. The prospect of the Greens harming the SNP is often overblown, but this is one seat where it really could make a difference, and they have been advancing in the city council elections in the early 2020s. Labour does have better targets even within Glasgow; and it is the only one of the redrawn constituencies where Labour were not in first place in May 2022 in first preferences in any of the wards wholly included. But this is a seat they will have to win back to become Scotland’s largest party again – and, probably, to win a majority at Westminster.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 11.1% 588/650
Owner-occupied 43.9% 611/650
Private rented 25.4% 69/650
Social rented 28.9% 59/650
White 86.6% 487/650
Black 2.3% 164/650
Asian 9.3% 132/650
Managerial & professional 32.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
Degree level 40.6% 45/650
No qualifications 19.6% 472/650
Students 25.0% 12/650
General election 2019: Glasgow North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Patrick Grady 16,982 46.9 +9.3
Labour Pam Duncan-Glancy 11,381 31.4 -3.0
Conservative Tony Curtis 3,806 10.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrats Andrew Chamberlain 2,394 6.6 +3.2
Scottish Green Cass McGregor 1,308 3.6 -6.1
Brexit Party Dionne Cocozza 320 0.9 N/A
SNP Majority 5,601 15.5 +12.4
Turnout 36,191 63.3 +1.2
SNP hold
Swing 6.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow North consists of
77.3% of Glasgow North
23.2% of Glasgow Central
22.7% of Glasgow North East
1.3% of Glasgow North West
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_north_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Before the boundary changes, Glasgow North was the smallest seat in Scotland (in acreage, not in electorate) - a left-winger’s paradise. It is now considerably expanded, and even more composed of an extraordinary variety of differing neighbourhoods. Although nearly a quarter of the seat in its ‘west end’ section has been shifted into Glasgow West, it has been extended in two directions, to the south gaining 23% of the abolished Glasgow Central, the second largest chunk of that seat and covering much of the heart of the city, and to the east taking 23% of Glasgow NE, including perhaps the most fearsomely deprived parts of the whole of Glasgow.
This seat can now be roughly divided into three parts – those parts lying within Glasgow’s West End, the city centre, and those parts lying further north and east. The West End is a loosely defined area concentrated mainly around Argyle Street, Byres Road and Great Western Road. In recent decades it has become the most gentrified and over-priced area in the city. The West End almost feels like a separate city from Glasgow itself, and it is possible to live here and go for days without hearing a proper Glaswegian accent. For this reason, it is held in low regard by many “real” Glaswegians, who see it (somewhat fairly) as being full of pretentious students and outsiders. The West End is partly covered by this seat, though significantly less so after the boundary changes that remove most (15,600 electors) of the west-end ward of Partick East & Kelvindale including the neighbourhoods of Partick, Partickhill, Dowanhill and Hyndland, to the new Glasgow West.
Still in the North seat, though, the University of Glasgow is the crown jewel of the West End, and it lies next to the River Kelvin. This is part of the Hillhead ward, at one time the last redoubt of Glaswegian Conservatism but now a hotbed of student politics (the ward’s occupational figures revealed 32.5% full time students in the last available census figures) and an area of strength for the Greens. Although there are many trendy bars and restaurants in this area, the housing here is largely a bit crap, with some unscrupulous landlords taking advantage of clueless students. The section of the Woodlands in this seat contains some of the sketchiest areas of the West End in my opinion. Still overwhelmingly student dominated but a bit dodgy. Walking down West Prince's Street late at night is the only time I ever felt unsafe living in Glasgow! Overall, the West End is a staunchly left-wing area, with an increasing level of support for the Greens: Hillhead was the one ward in the city where they took the most first preferences in May 2022, an impressive 36% compared with 29% for the SNP and only 22% for Labour. The Conservatives were down to just 6.7% in the Hillhead ward in which they had once been so strong. In general elections, though, it is likely that most unionists will tend to stick with Labour.
Of the section gained from Glasgow Central, the northwestern-most corner is perhaps its wealthiest area, as it is home to the gorgeous Park Circus which sits on a hill overlooking Kelvingrove Park. It also contains a large portion of the West End which runs from the Kelvingrove Art Gallery, down the trendy, bohemian Argyle Street, and terminates in the Finnieston area. Finnieston is a former working-class area most famous for being the birthplace of Billy Connolly. It is today almost completely gentrified and unrecognisable from when he was born, although the Finnieston Crane still stands next to the Clyde as a monument to Glasgow’s shipbuilding past.
Heading east, we come to the M8 motorway and the Anderston district, which serves as the eastern boundary of the West End. On the other side of the motorway is Glasgow City Centre and some of the city’s busiest and most famous streets which serve as its central business district: Sauchiehall Street, Buchanan Street and St. Vincent Street. Glasgow’s most iconic sights are also here, such as George Square, the Merchant City, the statue of Wellington with a cone on his head and many others, though eastern parts of the city centre like the cathedral and the necropolis are now in the East and North East constituencies. Like most city centres, relatively few people live here, but the Merchant City is known for having many large and luxurious flats. Politically this is a marginal area between Labour and the SNP, but with such a young studenty population (the ward had 42% full time students among its residents in 2011) the Greens also do well here. In the most recent city council elections in May 2022, the central Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward, the vast majority of which has been transferred into the North constituency, gave 33% of its first preferences to the SNP, 30% to Labour, and 26% to the Greens.
Going north from the Botanic Gardens, by the time we get to Maryhill Road the character of this constituency shifts quite noticeably. This part of Glasgow North – which features the areas of Maryhill and Summerston – is more traditionally working-class and stereotypically Glaswegian. Geographically, the main feature here is a grotty section of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Partick Thistle’s Firhill Stadium is also located here – a fair walk from Partick, mind. Firhill is essentially an extension of Maryhill and is home to the huge student accommodation complex on Murano Street. Wyndford is a pretty rough area that contains the only high rise flats in this ward if I remember correctly The brilliant comedy Still Game was filmed in Maryhill (fictional Craiglang), and although Maryhill and Summerston have historically had a bad reputation, the reality today is that they are about as safe and developed as anywhere else in Glasgow. Indeed, plenty of students live here for the cheaper accommodation. Somewhat surprisingly, the northernmost extremity of Glasgow North contains a substantial section of agriculture and has more farms than any other Glasgow seat. Before 2015, this northern half of the seat was far more monolithically Labour than the West End, and though they have since been usurped by the SNP, they still have substantial support here. In Maryhill ward in May 2022 the SNP were 8% ahead of Labour, 42% to 34% - the strongest Nationalist showing within the new lines of the North constituency.
The section of Glasgow NE that has been transferred into North is its northwestern-most corner, on the banks of the Forth and Clyde Canal. North of the canal lies an expanse of agricultural ground – among the only such land in Glasgow – but to the south lie the interlinked communities of Lambhill, Milton, Possilpark and Ruchill. Once an industrial powerhouse centred around the Saracen Foundry, these communities are today collectively the most deprived in Glasgow, with a high crime rate and a high incidence of health problems. Unemployment is also remarkably high, Possilpark has the lowest life expectancy of anywhere in the city, and the legacy of a heroin epidemic in the 80s and 90s is still very present in this area. Sadly, this is by some distance modern Glasgow’s worst area, although Ruchill is starting to develop a better reputation among younger people for its cheap rented accommodation and proximity to the West End. This grim territory is in the Canal ward, where in 2022 the SNP took 38% of first preferences to Labour’s 35%. That this is far from a middle class area is indicated by the Green share of little more than 5%. One difference between the newly arrived Canal ward and the rest of the North seat is that a clear majority of its population identifying as Christian in the census returns are Roman Catholic, and there are very few other religions recorded, unlike the Buddhists, Hindus and Muslims of the wards near the city centre. Also, it still had a little over 50% living in social rented housing in the 2011 census.
Overall North will remain an urban constituency, consisting in part of a trendy, bohemian, university area. It is a young seat, with more than two-fifths of the population aged 18-35. It is one of Scotland’s most multicultural seats, being only 86.6% white. , in 2011, and it will be even less so now, including because of the effect of the boundary changes: the central Anderston/City ward was only 76.6% white in 2011, even less than Hillhead ward at 81.9%. In 2016 Glasgow North had an astronomically high Remain vote of 78% - the fifth-highest anywhere in the UK. Additionally, it also voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014, albeit by a small margin. If ever there was a Scottish version of Islington North, Glasgow North must be it.
Despite being the successor of the seat that gave us George Galloway, Glasgow North’s representatives have been rather boring. Its first MP was Labour’s Ann McKechin, whose only claim to fame is that she served for a year as Miliband’s Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, before being replaced by fellow Glaswegian Margaret Curran. Her SNP successor, Patrick Grady, was similarly low-profile, being the Chief Whip of the SNP at Westminster – surely one of the easiest jobs in politics! - until March 2021, when he left that position and then went through a period of suspension from the party that lasted from June to December 2022. Alison Thewlis, the SNP MP for the abolished Glasgow Central, has been selected to contest the North seat rather than Grady.
When we think of the Glasgow seats, we tend to think of Labour strongholds that fell to the SNP and are now somewhat marginal. This narrative broadly works for this seat, but there are some important footnotes. This was always Labour’s weakest seat in the city, and the Lib Dems put up very respectable showings back when they could count on the student vote. In 2005 and 2010, they were able to put this seat on the very edge of the playing field, although it would be a stretch to call the seat a marginal at that time. There is a case to be made that the SNP owe their success here to Lib Dem switchers even more so than Labour ones – the Lib Dems’ fall here in 2015 was even more dramatic than Labour’s. And unlike Labour, there seems no prospect of them ever getting back to where they were. This group of young, disaffected Lib Dems have stuck with the Nats in general elections so far. This could be what saved Grady in 2017 when Labour made a strong resurgence.
The reasons for Labour’s recovery in this seat are threefold. Firstly, this is the sort of constituency where Corbyn and Corbynism went down well. As mentioned, the demographic similarities between this seat and Islington North are considerable. Secondly, Labour has produced a strong local candidate who stood here in 2017 and 2019. Even in 2019, Scottish Labour’s nadir, their vote here held up better than anywhere else in Scotland. Finally, the presence of the Greens here hurts the SNP, especially in 2017 when Patrick Harvie stood for parliament. The prospect of the Greens harming the SNP is often overblown, but this is one seat where it really could make a difference, and they have been advancing in the city council elections in the early 2020s. Labour does have better targets even within Glasgow; and it is the only one of the redrawn constituencies where Labour were not in first place in May 2022 in first preferences in any of the wards wholly included. But this is a seat they will have to win back to become Scotland’s largest party again – and, probably, to win a majority at Westminster.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 11.1% 588/650
Owner-occupied 43.9% 611/650
Private rented 25.4% 69/650
Social rented 28.9% 59/650
White 86.6% 487/650
Black 2.3% 164/650
Asian 9.3% 132/650
Managerial & professional 32.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
Degree level 40.6% 45/650
No qualifications 19.6% 472/650
Students 25.0% 12/650
General election 2019: Glasgow North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Patrick Grady 16,982 46.9 +9.3
Labour Pam Duncan-Glancy 11,381 31.4 -3.0
Conservative Tony Curtis 3,806 10.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrats Andrew Chamberlain 2,394 6.6 +3.2
Scottish Green Cass McGregor 1,308 3.6 -6.1
Brexit Party Dionne Cocozza 320 0.9 N/A
SNP Majority 5,601 15.5 +12.4
Turnout 36,191 63.3 +1.2
SNP hold
Swing 6.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow North consists of
77.3% of Glasgow North
23.2% of Glasgow Central
22.7% of Glasgow North East
1.3% of Glasgow North West
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_north_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 19754 | 47.6% |
| Lab | 14172 | 34.1% |
| Con | 3658 | 8.8% |
| LD | 2156 | 5.2% |
| Green | 1553 | 3.7% |
| Brexit | 246 | 0.6% |
| Majority | 5582 | 13.4% |
