Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 17, 2023 19:07:06 GMT
Wolverhampton North East, like South West, was created in 1950 but before then most of it was contained in a Wolverhampton East constituency which stretched from the town centre all the way out to the then separate community of Wednesfield and further to include the districts of Short Heath and Willenhall (now part of Walsall borough). The incoming boundary changes partially restore this arrangement, bringing in the Willenhall North and Short Heath wards from the abolished Walsall North (Wednesfield itself was incorporated into Wolverhampton in 1966 and has formed part of this seat since 1974).
Wolverhampton East was unusual in being a seat the Liberal party held without break from 1885 to 1945 – when the seat was gained by Labour in that year, the Liberals retained second place but thereafter they have not featured in parliamentary contests here, not even contesting the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s. Some residue of the old Liberal support occasionally appeared in local elections where the Liberals (the Liberal party that is, not the Lib Dems) remained competitive in the Heath Town ward of all places right up until the early years of this century.
Otherwise, this has always remained a somewhat one-sided two-party battle, with most of the wards exhibiting a similar pattern to the constituency at large – usually Labour but with a significant Tory vote which can win out in a good year. There have not been too many of those at the parliamentary level. The Conservatives came close in the Powell election of 1970 and again in 1983 but have only won twice – in 1987 and 2019. The constituency is characterised as mainly suburban and containing a mixture of dreary inter-war semis and large post-war council estates. It is primarily working class with low educational levels but significantly whiter than the other Wolverhampton seats.
This description fits the wards of Oxley (which is now to be removed to Wolverhampton West), Fallings Park, Wednesfield North and Wednesfield South. All these wards have been marginal between the two parties at local level and would have been carried by the Conservatives in the last general election. Bushbury North is not dissimilar in character overall but has a stronger Conservative voting history with that party now holding all three seats in the ward (all the other Wolverhampton wards in the seat have 100% Labour representation). Bushbury North (which includes most of Bushbury plus the Fordhouses area) is one of the whitest parts of the constituency which partly accounts for this, but it is also a bit more middle class that the other wards.
The outliers in the opposite direction are the two wards closest to the inner-city which remain reliably Labour in all elections.
Bushbury South & Low Hill is dominated by Low Hill – a vast inter-war ‘cottage’ estate which is very deprived, still with nearly 40% in social rented housing and significant Black and Asian populations. In the West it includes the site of the former Goodyear tyre factory which was a major employer in this constituency but closed in 2016. There is some new private development on that site (this area has actually been moved into Oxley ward now but as the constituency boundaries are based on the old ward boundaries, the area remains in this seat).
Closer in towards the city centre the ward takes in part of Park Village which is an old industrial area with Victorian terraced housing. Park Village continues into Heath Town ward which touches the city centre at the ring road and includes Wolverhampton station. The Heath Town estate itself is probably the worst estate in Wolverhampton, comprising a complex of tower blocks and low rise flats interconnected with walkways – a classic example of a 1960s system built estate. The Heath Town estate has a large black population, and the ward overall has a high level of both black and Asian residents. There is another tower block estate within the ward on the other side of New Cross hospital. It is difficult to see how the Conservatives won this ward in 2008 but they did so just at the point when the Liberal party stopped fighting the ward - that was a freak win and Labour have won comfortably in all subsequent elections, including the general election when it was Labour’s safest ward in the seat.
Bushbury South & Low Hill has not even had such a blip in local elections.
There are large council estates in some of the other wards too. The Scotlands Estate in Fallings Park is an extension of Low Hill but is balanced by more owner-occupied housing further out. Ashmore Park is a large overspill estate which covers much of Wednesfield North. Nevertheless Wednesfield North is a ward the Conservatives have often won in local elections and actually produced their strongest result in the general election. Again the ethnic composition of the ward may be key here as it is overwhelmingly white.
The two wards added from Walsall – Willenhall North and Short Heath - which replace Oxley differ from the Wolverhampton wards in many respects. Willenhall North is a bit of a misnomer as the centre of Willenhall itself is the other side of Short Heath in Willenhall South. It is really based on the quaintly named community of New Invention. These wards are significantly whiter, more owner-occupied and middle class than the Wolverhampton wards. That is not to say this is a salubrious area – far from it (the bar is quite low after all).
This area does have a rather distinctive electoral history as well. The Liberals first won a seat in Willenhall North in 1976 and Ian Shires was first elected for that party in 1979. By the mid-1980s the Liberal Alliance were regularly winning both that ward and Short Heath by large margins and the wards remained reliably Lib Dem throughout the 90s and 00s – highly unusual for the Black Country. Things changed immediately after the formation of the coalition government as Labour gained a seat in 2011. The following year Ian Shires still held on as a Lib Dem (demonstrating a strong personal vote) but in 2014 they lost another seat to UKIP and the year after that the Conservatives gained the seat which Labour had won in 2011 – four different winners in consecutive elections, and in 2015 less than 10% separated the Conservatives in first place from UKIP in fourth.
Ian Shires managed to hold on again in 2016 (easily) while the other seats fell to the Tories until he was finally beaten in 2021 – over 40 years after his first election. Short Heath ward went through a similar trajectory except that Labour did not win it in 2011 and both wards are now wholly in Conservative hands. They did not win either overwhelmingly in the most recent local elections as these wards finally take on the character of a two-party contest matching the rest of the seat they are now joining.
But in the general election of 2019, when Eddie Hughes consolidated his gain in Walsall North from two years earlier and won by more than two to one, these wards were indeed overwhelmingly Conservative. The Conservatives led by over 40% in these two wards, producing a numerical lead of over 4,500.
The effect of their replacing Oxley is therefore to more than double the Conservative majority to more than 8000 and the required swing needed to over 10%.
It’s a mark of the realignment in British politics that this seat is so much safer on paper than Wolverhampton West which contains all the most upmarket areas of the city where this seat really contains none. But ‘on paper’ may be the operative term here – given the demographics and the electoral history of this seat and the way the winds are blowing nationally, a swing well in excess of 10% is eminently achievable and highly likely.
2019 Notional result
Wolverhampton East was unusual in being a seat the Liberal party held without break from 1885 to 1945 – when the seat was gained by Labour in that year, the Liberals retained second place but thereafter they have not featured in parliamentary contests here, not even contesting the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s. Some residue of the old Liberal support occasionally appeared in local elections where the Liberals (the Liberal party that is, not the Lib Dems) remained competitive in the Heath Town ward of all places right up until the early years of this century.
Otherwise, this has always remained a somewhat one-sided two-party battle, with most of the wards exhibiting a similar pattern to the constituency at large – usually Labour but with a significant Tory vote which can win out in a good year. There have not been too many of those at the parliamentary level. The Conservatives came close in the Powell election of 1970 and again in 1983 but have only won twice – in 1987 and 2019. The constituency is characterised as mainly suburban and containing a mixture of dreary inter-war semis and large post-war council estates. It is primarily working class with low educational levels but significantly whiter than the other Wolverhampton seats.
This description fits the wards of Oxley (which is now to be removed to Wolverhampton West), Fallings Park, Wednesfield North and Wednesfield South. All these wards have been marginal between the two parties at local level and would have been carried by the Conservatives in the last general election. Bushbury North is not dissimilar in character overall but has a stronger Conservative voting history with that party now holding all three seats in the ward (all the other Wolverhampton wards in the seat have 100% Labour representation). Bushbury North (which includes most of Bushbury plus the Fordhouses area) is one of the whitest parts of the constituency which partly accounts for this, but it is also a bit more middle class that the other wards.
The outliers in the opposite direction are the two wards closest to the inner-city which remain reliably Labour in all elections.
Bushbury South & Low Hill is dominated by Low Hill – a vast inter-war ‘cottage’ estate which is very deprived, still with nearly 40% in social rented housing and significant Black and Asian populations. In the West it includes the site of the former Goodyear tyre factory which was a major employer in this constituency but closed in 2016. There is some new private development on that site (this area has actually been moved into Oxley ward now but as the constituency boundaries are based on the old ward boundaries, the area remains in this seat).
Closer in towards the city centre the ward takes in part of Park Village which is an old industrial area with Victorian terraced housing. Park Village continues into Heath Town ward which touches the city centre at the ring road and includes Wolverhampton station. The Heath Town estate itself is probably the worst estate in Wolverhampton, comprising a complex of tower blocks and low rise flats interconnected with walkways – a classic example of a 1960s system built estate. The Heath Town estate has a large black population, and the ward overall has a high level of both black and Asian residents. There is another tower block estate within the ward on the other side of New Cross hospital. It is difficult to see how the Conservatives won this ward in 2008 but they did so just at the point when the Liberal party stopped fighting the ward - that was a freak win and Labour have won comfortably in all subsequent elections, including the general election when it was Labour’s safest ward in the seat.
Bushbury South & Low Hill has not even had such a blip in local elections.
There are large council estates in some of the other wards too. The Scotlands Estate in Fallings Park is an extension of Low Hill but is balanced by more owner-occupied housing further out. Ashmore Park is a large overspill estate which covers much of Wednesfield North. Nevertheless Wednesfield North is a ward the Conservatives have often won in local elections and actually produced their strongest result in the general election. Again the ethnic composition of the ward may be key here as it is overwhelmingly white.
The two wards added from Walsall – Willenhall North and Short Heath - which replace Oxley differ from the Wolverhampton wards in many respects. Willenhall North is a bit of a misnomer as the centre of Willenhall itself is the other side of Short Heath in Willenhall South. It is really based on the quaintly named community of New Invention. These wards are significantly whiter, more owner-occupied and middle class than the Wolverhampton wards. That is not to say this is a salubrious area – far from it (the bar is quite low after all).
This area does have a rather distinctive electoral history as well. The Liberals first won a seat in Willenhall North in 1976 and Ian Shires was first elected for that party in 1979. By the mid-1980s the Liberal Alliance were regularly winning both that ward and Short Heath by large margins and the wards remained reliably Lib Dem throughout the 90s and 00s – highly unusual for the Black Country. Things changed immediately after the formation of the coalition government as Labour gained a seat in 2011. The following year Ian Shires still held on as a Lib Dem (demonstrating a strong personal vote) but in 2014 they lost another seat to UKIP and the year after that the Conservatives gained the seat which Labour had won in 2011 – four different winners in consecutive elections, and in 2015 less than 10% separated the Conservatives in first place from UKIP in fourth.
Ian Shires managed to hold on again in 2016 (easily) while the other seats fell to the Tories until he was finally beaten in 2021 – over 40 years after his first election. Short Heath ward went through a similar trajectory except that Labour did not win it in 2011 and both wards are now wholly in Conservative hands. They did not win either overwhelmingly in the most recent local elections as these wards finally take on the character of a two-party contest matching the rest of the seat they are now joining.
But in the general election of 2019, when Eddie Hughes consolidated his gain in Walsall North from two years earlier and won by more than two to one, these wards were indeed overwhelmingly Conservative. The Conservatives led by over 40% in these two wards, producing a numerical lead of over 4,500.
The effect of their replacing Oxley is therefore to more than double the Conservative majority to more than 8000 and the required swing needed to over 10%.
It’s a mark of the realignment in British politics that this seat is so much safer on paper than Wolverhampton West which contains all the most upmarket areas of the city where this seat really contains none. But ‘on paper’ may be the operative term here – given the demographics and the electoral history of this seat and the way the winds are blowing nationally, a swing well in excess of 10% is eminently achievable and highly likely.
2019 Notional result
| Con | 22787 | 56.5% |
| Lab | 14528 | 36.0% |
| LD | 1211 | 3.0% |
| BxP | 1150 | 2.9% |
| Grn | 673 | 1.7% |
| Majority | 8259 | 20.5% |
