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Post by jakegb on Dec 22, 2023 20:14:19 GMT
Wokingham (next door) will no doubt be the Lib Dems' primary target in Berkshire (based on 2019 majority). May will hang on ok.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Dec 22, 2023 21:02:29 GMT
Possible but extremely unlikely and this is one of those seats where local election results really aren't much of a guide for a general election. There will be plenty of people who voted Lib Dem at last year's local elections but who will vote for Theresa May at the general election. She is a good fit for the seat and by almost all accounts a popular and assiduous MP. Most GE voters are thinking about parties, not voters. Only a minority will even know the name of their existing MP. Far fewer will care about TM versus her party. Maybe, back in the times when only names were listed on ballots, and not party descriptions. The name recognition will have been a big thing then. Not now. Fetishisation of the "single member link to a constituency" is part of the feedback loop into defence of this system. Complete and utter nonsense. It might be true of some MPs in some seats but here we have a well educated and sophisticated electorate and a former Prime Minister is the MP. A clear majority of general election voters will know who Theresa May is. |
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Post by observer on Dec 23, 2023 10:46:09 GMT
How would people tell the difference between Mrs May and a Lib Dem? seeing that she was rather notably a Conservative Prime Minister and is better known than any opponent the Lib Dems could field against her, my guess is rather easily. (Yes I know that's not what you meant but I think it's likely that she will oppose their local & national policies clearly enough.) Yes, and I'm sure that May and a Lib Dem candidate will find cosmetic issues to 'fight' about. But in substance - accelerated wokery, Net Zero, the EU - they will be the same. I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Dec 23, 2023 11:47:22 GMT
I wonder what the % of people is who vote Lib Dem locally but Conservative nationally.
I guess it happens with Labour voters too in Liverpool and Sheffield.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Dec 23, 2023 12:02:36 GMT
seeing that she was rather notably a Conservative Prime Minister and is better known than any opponent the Lib Dems could field against her, my guess is rather easily. (Yes I know that's not what you meant but I think it's likely that she will oppose their local & national policies clearly enough.) Yes, and I'm sure that May and a Lib Dem candidate will find cosmetic issues to 'fight' about. But in substance - accelerated wokery, Net Zero, the EU - they will be the same. I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. From what I remember her local party have always been very supportive, even at the height of her struggles as PM |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2023 13:47:56 GMT
seeing that she was rather notably a Conservative Prime Minister and is better known than any opponent the Lib Dems could field against her, my guess is rather easily. (Yes I know that's not what you meant but I think it's likely that she will oppose their local & national policies clearly enough.) Yes, and I'm sure that May and a Lib Dem candidate will find cosmetic issues to 'fight' about. But in substance - accelerated wokery, Net Zero, the EU - they will be the same. I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. Yes, because Theresa May's preferred Brexit was exactly the same as what the Lib Dems were calling for. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2023 13:48:51 GMT
I wonder what the % of people is who vote Lib Dem locally but Conservative nationally. I guess it happens with Labour voters too in Liverpool and Sheffield. It must have been very high in recent years in Watford. Not sure it will be in the future. |
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Post by observer on Dec 23, 2023 14:18:34 GMT
Yes, and I'm sure that May and a Lib Dem candidate will find cosmetic issues to 'fight' about. But in substance - accelerated wokery, Net Zero, the EU - they will be the same. I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. Yes, because Theresa May's preferred Brexit was exactly the same as what the Lib Dems were calling for. Yes, a cosmetic difference. Both May and the Lib Dems wanted us to be in the EU. May wanted a fake Brexit and then a readmission, so she could tell the gullible that she had honoured the referendum vote. Same end result. No difference apart from tactics |
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Post by redvers on Dec 23, 2023 18:45:08 GMT
By 2019 this was now back to being a comfortable Conservative seat, with the Lib Dems in a clear but distant second - which is probably the default state of a constituency like this. It is unlikely that the Liberal Democrats will actually win it - rumour has it that this may have been the seat of the Prime Minister from 2016 to 2019 – but with the Conservatives languishing in the opinion polls, they will entertain hopes that they might, or at least get as close as they did in 2001 (majority only 3,284) or 2005 (6,231). These were the closest shaves that Theresa May has had since her initial election in 1997 – in 2015 her lead was over 29,000 and in 2017 over 26,000, despite the poor overall outcome for her party of her decision to hold an election then. The local election situation may be thought to give the Lib Dems even more encouragement: they have been in control of Windsor and Maidenhead borough since 2019 and, as noted above, led in this seat by 14.5% within the new boundaries of Maidenhead in May 2023. But they have been in a similar municipal situation before, winning an overall majority of councillors in 1995 and 2003. Theresa May has been selected to attempt an eighth term here, and it really would be a feather in the LD cap if they could go further and actually win Maidenhead for the first time ever - and oust a former PM in the process. Not so, they only gained control in 2023. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Dec 23, 2023 19:33:52 GMT
I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. In which case you have no understanding of the Conservative Party. In places like Maidenhead she is absolutely representative of mainstream Conservative Party opinion. That you can't distinguish her from a Lib Dem is down to you. NB: I have no time for May's brand of conservatism and declined to vote for the Conservatives in 2017 |
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Post by observer on Dec 23, 2023 20:59:01 GMT
I'm genuinely surprised that grassroots Conservatives in Maidenhead re-adopted her. In which case you have no understanding of the Conservative Party. In places like Maidenhead she is absolutely representative of mainstream Conservative Party opinion. That you can't distinguish her from a Lib Dem is down to you. NB: I have no time for May's brand of conservatism and declined to vote for the Conservatives in 2017 I'm saying that objectively her policy positions are indistinguishable from those of the Lib Dems, albeit both parties in Maidenhead will look for cosmetic differences so they can stage a 'fight'. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 23, 2023 22:25:03 GMT
In which case you have no understanding of the Conservative Party. In places like Maidenhead she is absolutely representative of mainstream Conservative Party opinion. That you can't distinguish her from a Lib Dem is down to you. NB: I have no time for May's brand of conservatism and declined to vote for the Conservatives in 2017 I'm saying that objectively her policy positions are indistinguishable from those of the Lib Dems, albeit both parties in Maidenhead will look for cosmetic differences so they can stage a 'fight'. We had a Lib Dem MP at our local party's AGM in 2018 and I can assure you there was no meeting of minds between the LDs and May over Brexit. And her "hostile environment" was not exactly wishy-washy liberal, was it? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2023 22:50:25 GMT
I'm saying that objectively her policy positions are indistinguishable from those of the Lib Dems, albeit both parties in Maidenhead will look for cosmetic differences so they can stage a 'fight'. We had a Lib Dem MP at our local party's AGM in 2018 and I can assure you there was no meeting of minds between the LDs and May over Brexit. And her "hostile environment" was not exactly wishy-washy liberal, was it? It's just the usual nonsense from the Right of the Conservative Party who claim that unless you are Enoch Powell on steroids you are not a real Tory. |
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Post by observer on Dec 24, 2023 0:42:18 GMT
I'm saying that objectively her policy positions are indistinguishable from those of the Lib Dems, albeit both parties in Maidenhead will look for cosmetic differences so they can stage a 'fight'. We had a Lib Dem MP at our local party's AGM in 2018 and I can assure you there was no meeting of minds between the LDs and May over Brexit. And her "hostile environment" was not exactly wishy-washy liberal, was it? The differences were simply tactical. May didn't want Brexit and tried to sabotage it while pretending to support it. Anyone remember her facile 'Brexit means Brexit' nonsense? A phrase cunningly designed to obscure her manoeuvreings. The Lib Dems on the other hand wanted to openly oppose. Tactical differences to the same end. Add to the mix the accelerated wokery, the Net Zero rubbish: strategically May and the Lib Dems were the same. She hasn't changed since. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jan 14, 2024 15:58:22 GMT
It's actually funny that people here are trying to argue that Theresa May of all people is "indistinguishable from... the Lib Dems". She's a Tory to the core.
She's also someone who is and always has been respected locally as a relatively dedicated and hardworking MP, enthusiastically by the Tories and begrudgingly by the Lib Dems.
The Tories kicking out May was never going to happen. The only question mark in my mind was whether she was going to stand in Maidenhead or move to Earley and Woodley where her home now is.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 14, 2024 16:28:15 GMT
It's actually funny that people here are trying to argue that Theresa May of all people is "indistinguishable from... the Lib Dems". She's a Tory to the core. She's also someone who is and always has been respected locally as a relatively dedicated and hardworking MP, enthusiastically by the Tories and begrudgingly by the Lib Dems. Kicking out May was never going to happen. The only question mark in my mind was whether she was going to stand in Maidenhead or move to Earley and Woodley where her home now is. She was undone by being a compromise politician in the age of extremism. I don't have that much ill will towards her. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 14, 2024 17:39:04 GMT
May was not a compromise politician. She was a conviction politician forced by the circumstances of the times to lead on a policy area which required compromise, which she was unwilling to accept. She brought herself down ultimately because she called a general election in order to avoid having to compromise.
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Post by evergreenadam on Mar 8, 2024 8:39:08 GMT
Theresa May standing down so that may change the dynamics of the future contest in this seat.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 8, 2024 8:58:28 GMT
Theresa May standing down so that may change the dynamics of the future contest in this seat. She loved being a constituency MP too. |
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 8, 2024 9:26:38 GMT
Theresa May standing down so that may change the dynamics of the future contest in this seat. She loved being a constituency MP too. Maybe she wants no part in the post election alt-right MAGA imitation Tory party. |
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