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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 5:26:33 GMT
Very good in Weymouth for us but In Rotherham, well it appears the BNP and Tory vote collapsed in favour of UKIP which had a strong presence there anyway ...
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 17, 2013 8:36:25 GMT
That's a stunning result for UKIP in Rotherham.
Bad week all round for the LDs and mixed for Labour and the Conservatives.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 8:37:51 GMT
It is the first result like that for UKIP in a Met but looking at previous results it is probably their best Met ward over the years. There is no question the collapse in BNP and Tory support helped them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 17, 2013 10:13:37 GMT
The Labour share in Rawmarsh was still down over 20 points, so it isn't just a matter of the right-wing (or, if you prefer, anti-Labour) vote uniting around one candidate. Wasn't this election originally meant to be on May 2, anyway?? Had it been Labour would probably have held on, if narrowly. The fact the timetable was allowed to slip is further evidence of a slipshod and complacent party who simply did not believe that they could lose. Not good enough  (and given all the other stuff from Rotherham recently, it points to the need for action??) |
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Post by David Ashforth on May 17, 2013 11:22:30 GMT
The Labour share in Rawmarsh was still down over 20 points, so it isn't just a matter of the right-wing (or, if you prefer, anti-Labour) vote uniting around one candidate. Wasn't this election originally meant to be on May 2, anyway?? Had it been Labour would probably have held on, if narrowly. The fact the timetable was allowed to slip is further evidence of a slipshod and complacent party who simply did not believe that they could lose. Not good enough (and given all the other stuff from Rotherham recently, it points to the need for action??) Is the ward in the Rotherham constituency? I imagine that UKIP must have some momentum from the parliamentary by-election and an organisational legacy from that campaign. Rawmarsh is in the Wentworth and Dearne constituency |
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Post by Merseymike on May 17, 2013 11:32:51 GMT
There really is an issue with 'all in the family' Labour groups in some safe areas.
In this case, I think that many may have thought 'he's taken a prime billet for a princely sum which is in fact a waste-of-time unnecessary white elephant (PCC) and now his wife lines up at the trough for more of the spoils'
That was my first reaction, and I'm a Labour party member!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 17, 2013 12:04:42 GMT
That is certainly true as far as it goes - but the suspicion has always been that it suits some to keep things that way.
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Post by Merseymike on May 17, 2013 12:05:07 GMT
There really is an issue with 'all in the family' Labour groups in some safe areas. There is, although it is by no means unique to our party. The LibDems in Liverpool were a prime example. The phenomenon is due to declining levels of political activism and involvement, meaning that the pool of potential candidates isn't always very wide or deep. Not disagreeing, but there are issues of selection practices too. I will say no more.... |
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Post by lancastrian on May 17, 2013 17:03:33 GMT
It is the first result like that for UKIP in a Met but looking at previous results it is probably their best Met ward over the years. There is no question the collapse in BNP and Tory support helped them. There are a few other Rotherham wards where they did alright last year. They have also had a councillor in Dudley in the past, and still get decent vote shares in some wards. Of course there's the odd ward elsewhere as well( Wrenthorpe and Outwood West, Stocksbridge and Upper Don, Hetton, Queensbury). I would certainly agree that Rawmarsh is the best ward for UKIP amongst those in the Met boroughs which have had by-elections recently. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 17, 2013 17:30:12 GMT
In this case, I think that many may have thought 'he's taken a prime billet for a princely sum which is in fact a waste-of-time unnecessary white elephant (PCC) and now his wife lines up at the trough for more of the spoils' I think we can go further and say that that was definitely the case... And this in a ward that - though normally very safe - UKIP had polled over 900 votes in in the past. Morons. |
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 19:30:08 GMT
anyone could have guessed a decent sized BNP and Tory vote might go to UKIP.
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Post by arnieetc on May 18, 2013 14:33:46 GMT
In my experience the BNP vote tends to go back to Labour. That's what we saw in Wakefield.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2013 14:36:18 GMT
Maybe not so much in a ward where the BNP scored over 20% even last year, though......
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Post by middleenglander on May 18, 2013 22:17:42 GMT
Rotherham MB, Rawmarsh - UKIP gain from Labour | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | UKIP | 1,143 | 46.5% | from nowhere | +31.6% | +32.7% | +14.1% | | Labour | 1,039 | 42.3% | -24.0% | -18.3% | -8.6% | -3.0% | | Conservatives | 107 | 4.4% | -8.5% | -9.7% | -10.4% | -17.9% | | BNP | 80 | 3.3% | -17.6% | -7.1% | -11.5% | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 61 | 2.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 28 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Greens | | | | | -5.6% | | | Total votes | 2,458 | | +14 | -696 | -2,757 | -391 |
Swing not particularly meaningful. Somerset CC, Coker - Conservative gain from Lib Dem This is a deferred election following the death of the UKIP candidate ahead of the 2nd May election. There were boundary changes which may have been helpful to the Lib Dems. | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 1,303 | 37.8% | -4.8% | +0.8% | | Lib Dems | 1,079 | 31.3% | -14.1% | -21.3% | | UKIP | 702 | 20.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 195 | 5.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Greens | 165 | 4.8% | -3.0% | -5.6% | | Independent | | | -4.1% | | | Total votes | 2,141 | | +245 | -1,111 |
Swing (subject to boundary changes) Lib Dems to Conservatives 5% since 2009 and 11% since 2005 Weymouth & Portland BC, Melcombe Regis - Labour gain from Conservative | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 "top" | | Labour | 279 | 26.5% | +7.9% | +5.1% | from nowhere | +14.8% | | Conservatives | 258 | 24.5% | -9.0% | -10.2% | -11.8% | -14.1% | | Independent | 204 | 19.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.3% | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 170 | 16.1% | -13.3% | -27.8% | -25.9% | -23.8% | | Greens | 143 | 13.6% | -5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +3.8% | | Total votes | 1,054 | | -234 | -651 | -1,527 | -514 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 8½% since 2012 and 7½% since 2011 - seat had been won by Lib Dems in 2011 and several years before, swing Lib Dem to Labour 16% since 2011 and 19% since 2008
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Post by marksenior on May 19, 2013 13:53:20 GMT
The boundary changes in Coker were not helpful to the Lib Dems , the information I had was not totally clear but the Conservatives may have just won in 2009 on the new boundaries hence my unique forecast of a Conservative win . Note the electorate was increased by around 1,100 votes .
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Post by middleenglander on May 19, 2013 15:28:20 GMT
The boundary changes in Coker were not helpful to the Lib Dems , the information I had was not totally clear but the Conservatives may have just won in 2009 on the new boundaries hence my unique forecast of a Conservative win . Note the electorate was increased by around 1,100 votes . I cannot find the source, but I certainly read that someone (not partisan from my recollection) thought there was a small advantage to the Lib Dems. I'm not sure you can ever be certain as to the effect in such circumstances. The retirement of the previous councillor may have a greater impact. |
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Post by marksenior on May 19, 2013 15:51:31 GMT
When I first looked at the boundary changes in Somerset , I thought them slightly beneficial to the Lib Dems but a friend who lives in Yeovil told me that in fact detailed study showed they were slightly beneficial to the Conservatives . The overall Somerset results would seem to bear this out . Both Conservatives and Lib Dems lost votes overall to UKIP and Labour though county wide compared to 2009 there was a very small net swing from Conservative to Lib Dem but overall seats were lost by the latter to the former .
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Post by johnloony on May 30, 2013 2:03:43 GMT
Rawmarsh contest is caused by the resignation of the South Yorkshire PCC Shawn Wright. Lisa Wright is his wife. This fact didn't register with me until I was reminded of it this week. If he had resigned his council seat sooner, after being elected as PCC, Labour would have held the seat easily. One wonders why he left it so late? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 30, 2013 9:03:16 GMT
A good question - especially why it couldn't have been timed for May 2! Cock up is one account that I heard  |
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