Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Dec 15, 2023 18:03:26 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 2 more like this
Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 18:03:26 GMT
With credit to Penddu who wrote the original profile for Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South.
In the boundary review that reported during the 1992-97 parliament. Wales was granted 2 extra parliamentary constituencies, one of which was created in the Pembrokeshire area in the far South West of the principality. The Pembroke seat, which was a competitive, but oversized, marginal between Labour and the Conservatives, essentially formed the basis of 2 new constituencies. The northern of the 2 new seats- Preseli Pembrokeshire was named after the Preseli Hills in the north of the county and the southern part of Pembrokeshire joined the western part of neighbouring Carmarthenshire in the Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South constituency.
Fast forward 25 -30 years and what the boundary commission giveth, the boundary commission can taketh away. All of the constituencies in this area- Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South had electorates of under 60,000 in 2019, well under the national average, and with Wales losing eight seats in this boundary review, change in this area was inevitable.
The final recommendations create a Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat which contains the majority of both of the current Preseli Pembrokeshire ( 69%) and Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituencies ( 60%- essentially the South Pembrokeshire bit) . This ‘new’ constituency is however in fact similar to the Pembroke constituency that existed prior to 1997 and perhaps could be logically be named Pembroke.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire will be the most westerly constituency in Wales. This is the most South Western corner of the country and its way out West- it’s a 2 and half hour drive from the Severn Bridges to Haverfordwest in the centre of this constituency.
Pembrokeshire is on the English side of the Landsker - the imaginery but distictive boundary between English speaking and Welsh speaking areas. Following the Anglo-Norman conquest of Wales in the 13th century, the local Welsh population was displaced by English and Flemish settlers based in the walled towns of Pembroke (Penfro) and Tenby (Dinbych-y-Pysgod) and the area is often referred to as 'Little England beyond Wales'.
This is a distinctly rural constituency, with a topography similar to Cornwall. Much of the coastline of this constituency, with its fine coastal path, is within the Pembrokeshire Coast national park, which was designated a national park in 1952
The largest towns here are Haverfordwest, Milford Haven and Pembroke itself. Haverfordwest is an old market town, with a 12th century castle, and is strategically placed at the centre of the county and has a population of 13000. As the centre for a large rural area it is well served with amenities and is politically fairly even. At the 2022 local elections, its five wards elected three Independents, one Labour councillor and one Conservative. Labour are strongest in the Prendergast area in the North East of the town.
Milford Haven has a population of 14000 and is one of the core sources of Labour support in the constituency. Milford Haven is a working class town built on a grid pattern in the late 18th century originally around a dockyard. It is now the home to a huge oil refinery and is the fourth largest port in the UK in terms of tonnage.
Pembroke is a small historic town on the Pembroke river with a Tudor castle and a pleasant high street. Pembroke elected 2 Conservatives and 2 Independents in the 2022 local elections. Neighbouring Pembroke Dock is a different kettle of fish- it has rows of dock land terraced streets, and along with Milford Haven, is the core of the Labour vote in Pembrokeshire.
Moving eastwards we reach Tenby. Tenby is a popular holiday resort set on the South Pembrokeshire coast above some find sandy beaches. It is a particularly popular holiday trip from the valleys of South Wales. 1 mile offshore from Tenby is the holy Caldey Island to where one can take a boat trip to visit the Monastery. The Conservatives will usually lead Labour at general elections in Tenby.
The area has a strong dairy agricultural base - as well as a strong tourism sector along the National Park coastline. The Milford Haven waterway is the largest port in the UK by value, which imports 25% of UK gas requirements through its two Liquified Natural Gas at two terminals. The gas also feeds Pembroke Power Station which is the largest gas-fired power station in Europe. There is also an Irish ferry port at Pembroke Dock.
In the more sparsely populated North and West of the constituency lies the tiny Cathedral city of St Davids. The rural areas of this constituency are the strength of the Conservative base here. St Davids is the smallest city in the UK with a population of just 2000, has a fine norman cathedral and is the resting place of the patron saint of Wales.
This is an older white constituency, ranking in the top 100 nationwide for percentage of people over 65 at 25.6% and being 97.4% white. Fully 25% of residents of this constituency were born in England. The rural nature of the constituency is reflected by being ranked highly for the percentage of people employed in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. It is also in the top 50 consistencies for people working in semi routine occupations.
Local elections here are still dominated by Independents. In the 2022 local elections within the new constituency boundaries, 27 Independents were elected, to 10 Conservatives, 8 Labour and 2 each for the Liberal Democrat’s and Plaid Cymru.
Overall this is a seat with 2 quite strongly Labour towns and some very pleasant Conservative countryside. Notional results for new boundaries are notoriously tricky in areas of Independent local government strength and we await for the official notional result here. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South had a Conservative majority of 7700 in 2019, and Preseli Pembrokeshire a majority of 5,000. This seat probably has a notional Conservative majority from 2019 of approximately 7-8,000 and swings are often a bit lower than average here due to the split between Labour towns and Conservative countryside. As this is the Conservative seat with the largest notional majority in the area, there is expected to be a selection contest between the 2 sitting Pembrokeshire Conservative MP’s- current government Chief Whip Simon Hart and former cabinet minister Stephen Crabb. However, this is the sort of seat that Labour will be needing to win for a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, a scenario that looks likely both here in Pembrokeshire and at Westminster in 2024
In the boundary review that reported during the 1992-97 parliament. Wales was granted 2 extra parliamentary constituencies, one of which was created in the Pembrokeshire area in the far South West of the principality. The Pembroke seat, which was a competitive, but oversized, marginal between Labour and the Conservatives, essentially formed the basis of 2 new constituencies. The northern of the 2 new seats- Preseli Pembrokeshire was named after the Preseli Hills in the north of the county and the southern part of Pembrokeshire joined the western part of neighbouring Carmarthenshire in the Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South constituency.
Fast forward 25 -30 years and what the boundary commission giveth, the boundary commission can taketh away. All of the constituencies in this area- Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South had electorates of under 60,000 in 2019, well under the national average, and with Wales losing eight seats in this boundary review, change in this area was inevitable.
The final recommendations create a Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat which contains the majority of both of the current Preseli Pembrokeshire ( 69%) and Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituencies ( 60%- essentially the South Pembrokeshire bit) . This ‘new’ constituency is however in fact similar to the Pembroke constituency that existed prior to 1997 and perhaps could be logically be named Pembroke.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire will be the most westerly constituency in Wales. This is the most South Western corner of the country and its way out West- it’s a 2 and half hour drive from the Severn Bridges to Haverfordwest in the centre of this constituency.
Pembrokeshire is on the English side of the Landsker - the imaginery but distictive boundary between English speaking and Welsh speaking areas. Following the Anglo-Norman conquest of Wales in the 13th century, the local Welsh population was displaced by English and Flemish settlers based in the walled towns of Pembroke (Penfro) and Tenby (Dinbych-y-Pysgod) and the area is often referred to as 'Little England beyond Wales'.
This is a distinctly rural constituency, with a topography similar to Cornwall. Much of the coastline of this constituency, with its fine coastal path, is within the Pembrokeshire Coast national park, which was designated a national park in 1952
The largest towns here are Haverfordwest, Milford Haven and Pembroke itself. Haverfordwest is an old market town, with a 12th century castle, and is strategically placed at the centre of the county and has a population of 13000. As the centre for a large rural area it is well served with amenities and is politically fairly even. At the 2022 local elections, its five wards elected three Independents, one Labour councillor and one Conservative. Labour are strongest in the Prendergast area in the North East of the town.
Milford Haven has a population of 14000 and is one of the core sources of Labour support in the constituency. Milford Haven is a working class town built on a grid pattern in the late 18th century originally around a dockyard. It is now the home to a huge oil refinery and is the fourth largest port in the UK in terms of tonnage.
Pembroke is a small historic town on the Pembroke river with a Tudor castle and a pleasant high street. Pembroke elected 2 Conservatives and 2 Independents in the 2022 local elections. Neighbouring Pembroke Dock is a different kettle of fish- it has rows of dock land terraced streets, and along with Milford Haven, is the core of the Labour vote in Pembrokeshire.
Moving eastwards we reach Tenby. Tenby is a popular holiday resort set on the South Pembrokeshire coast above some find sandy beaches. It is a particularly popular holiday trip from the valleys of South Wales. 1 mile offshore from Tenby is the holy Caldey Island to where one can take a boat trip to visit the Monastery. The Conservatives will usually lead Labour at general elections in Tenby.
The area has a strong dairy agricultural base - as well as a strong tourism sector along the National Park coastline. The Milford Haven waterway is the largest port in the UK by value, which imports 25% of UK gas requirements through its two Liquified Natural Gas at two terminals. The gas also feeds Pembroke Power Station which is the largest gas-fired power station in Europe. There is also an Irish ferry port at Pembroke Dock.
In the more sparsely populated North and West of the constituency lies the tiny Cathedral city of St Davids. The rural areas of this constituency are the strength of the Conservative base here. St Davids is the smallest city in the UK with a population of just 2000, has a fine norman cathedral and is the resting place of the patron saint of Wales.
This is an older white constituency, ranking in the top 100 nationwide for percentage of people over 65 at 25.6% and being 97.4% white. Fully 25% of residents of this constituency were born in England. The rural nature of the constituency is reflected by being ranked highly for the percentage of people employed in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. It is also in the top 50 consistencies for people working in semi routine occupations.
Local elections here are still dominated by Independents. In the 2022 local elections within the new constituency boundaries, 27 Independents were elected, to 10 Conservatives, 8 Labour and 2 each for the Liberal Democrat’s and Plaid Cymru.
Overall this is a seat with 2 quite strongly Labour towns and some very pleasant Conservative countryside. Notional results for new boundaries are notoriously tricky in areas of Independent local government strength and we await for the official notional result here. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South had a Conservative majority of 7700 in 2019, and Preseli Pembrokeshire a majority of 5,000. This seat probably has a notional Conservative majority from 2019 of approximately 7-8,000 and swings are often a bit lower than average here due to the split between Labour towns and Conservative countryside. As this is the Conservative seat with the largest notional majority in the area, there is expected to be a selection contest between the 2 sitting Pembrokeshire Conservative MP’s- current government Chief Whip Simon Hart and former cabinet minister Stephen Crabb. However, this is the sort of seat that Labour will be needing to win for a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, a scenario that looks likely both here in Pembrokeshire and at Westminster in 2024
