Post by Robert Waller on Dec 15, 2023 17:29:03 GMT
The below is largely based on the well informed analysis of MacShimidh with some updates on boundary changes and recent election results by myself
Of Glasgow’s six constituencies, Glasgow South West may be the hardest to characterise as it is the most socially mixed. It is a largely working-class seat, but although it is the third-most deprived in Scotland, the endemic deprivation found in Glasgow East and Glasgow North East isn’t quite as pronounced here, and what deprivation there is often sits cheek-by-jowl with more affluent areas. It does perhaps exemplify Glasgow’s urban sprawl better than any of the other seats – bordering Renfrewshire, several areas blend into one another and it can sometimes be difficult to know whether you are still in Glasgow or have stumbled into Paisley. That said, two of Glasgow's most prominent areas are located here, so Glasgow South West is more than just an urban corridor. This seat voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014 with a Yes vote in the low-to-mid fifties, and in 2016 it had a Remain vote of 59% - a few points lower than the Scottish national average.
One of this seat’s predecessors was the old Glasgow Govan, a seat which existed for 120 years. Govan is one of Glasgow’s best-known areas and most of it is today located in this seat (there is a smaller section within Glasgow Central). A distinct burgh from Glasgow until 1912, Govan was at one time the seventh-largest town in Scotland, and many Govanites still regard themselves as somewhat separate from the rest of the city. Like much of Glasgow, Govan is a former industrial powerhouse that has fallen on tough times since the 1960s. It was once the epicentre of Glasgow’s shipbuilding industry, and the imposing red sandstone office building of the old Fairfield Shipbuilders still stands as one of the most striking buildings in this area.
These days, however, Govan is renowned for two different structures. The first is, of course, Ibrox Stadium, home of Rangers since 1899. The second is the huge Queen Elizabeth University Hospital. Although the QE has had several well-publicised teething problems since opening in 2015, it is now firmly embedded in the local area. The hospital is but one part of Govan’s regeneration, and the area has even seen some gentrification (especially along the waterfront). Furthermore, there are a surprising number of students living here – the presence of the QE will likely bolster this even further, but because of cheap housing and very good transport links to the rest of the city, Govan has been popular with students for some time. Nonetheless, it remains a fairly deprived area, with a relatively high crime rate and poor educational attainment.
Travelling south past Craigton, we come to the part of the seat that is probably its most socially mixed, with affluence and deprivation co-existing, sometimes one street away from each other. Mosspark, sitting on a hill, has a higher-than-average rate of home-ownership for the city and offers a stunning view looking north to the city centre. Confusingly, there are two areas known as Crookston located here, each of them located on different sides of the White Cart Water. The northern Crookston is home to some fancy traditional Glaswegian villas, whilst the southern Crookston – home to Crookston Castle, one of Glasgow’s oldest structures – feels rather suburban and is full of newer builds.
The southern Crookston is located next to Pollok, this seat’s second-most prominent area after Govan. Pollok is one of Glasgow’s “Big Four” housing estates, although it is distinct from the others in that parts of it were built before the outbreak of the Second World War. At one point, Pollok housed around 30,000 people, but today the population is much lower as a result of the demolition of the substandard housing that once predominated here. The lack of social amenities in the Big Four housing estates has been well-documented, and aside from the massive Silverburn Shopping Centre, even today there is not much else to Pollok. There are still some areas of acute deprivation here, but in general, the area has seen a pronounced improvement in living conditions in recent decades. In a political sense, the area is most notable for being the home and base of Tommy Sheridan, the socialist firebrand who was one of Scottish politics' most interesting and controversial characters of the nineties and noughties. In his prime, Sheridan was capable of taking second place and nearly 30% of the vote in Holyrood's Glasgow Pollok seat; but the last time he contested Glasgow South West, in 2010, he couldn't even garner a thousand votes and lost his deposit.
Finally, we reach this seat’s southern extremity. This part of Glasgow has had a long association with the Scottish aristocracy and is accordingly named after one of the most prominent noble families – Darnley. The lords of Darnley were at one time among the most powerful in the country and reached their apogee when one of them married Mary Queen of Scots (he was later blown up in suspicious circumstances). It is therefore surprising that the modern area of Darnley is quite deprived, and along with Househillwood, Nitshill and Priesthill, make up one of this seat’s poorest areas. But there are also some areas of affluence in this part of the constituency. Southpark Village and the wonderfully-named area of Jenny Lind (after the Swedish classical singer), have more in common with neighbouring East Renfrewshire than with much else of this seat.
Glasgow South West has had two MPs since its establishment in 2005, neither of them especially big names. It was first held by Ian Davidson for the Labour and Co-operative Party, who had previously represented Glasgow Govan from 1992-1997, then Glasgow Pollok from 1997-2005. Davidson’s politics were rather idiosyncratic, as he was both a professed republican and a Eurosceptic. Since losing his seat in 2015 he appears to have left Glasgow and has contested several elections in his native Berwickshire. He was succeeded by Chris Stephens, a locally-popular but very low-key SNP backbencher, who sits very much on the left flank of his party.
In the extensive boundary changes in Glasgow caused by the abolition of its Central constituency, South West both gains and loses territory. It takes in 19% of Central, the third largest portion of that seat, extending the boundary of SW eastwards from Govan through the territory immediately south of the river Clyde –Kinning Park, Kingston, the junction of the urban M8 and M74 motorways, almost to Gorbals. This is all very much inner city even city centre, with considerable regeneration; it includes the Glasgow Science Centre and the headquarters of BBC Scotland on Pacific Quay. South of the M74 is more residential, as around Dumbreck. All of this is also within the Southside Holyrood constituency that elected Nicola Sturgeon from 2011 through 2021. East of that section is the second addition to SW – Pollokshields, transferred from Glasgow South.
To the north of Pollok Park, Pollokshields is the traditional home of Glasgow's monied elite, Wandering around Pollokshields today, you will see many of the largest and most expensive mansions in the city, many of which were once owned by Glasgow's shipbuilding and industrial magnates. Although it is right next to grittier areas such as Govan, it somehow manages to feel miles away from the rest of the city. It is also a surprisingly diverse area, with those from an Asian background making up more than a third of the population in some parts. Politically speaking, Pollokshields has long been an area of strength for the Conservatives, and for nearly two decades up until 2017, it was home to Glasgow's sole Conservative councillor. At the turn of the century, this was Catherine Lyon, whose strong opposition to the Iraq War led to her falling out with the party. Latterly, it was David Meikle, who was perhaps more famous for being married to one-time SNP MP for Glasgow East, Natalie McGarry! However in the most recent Glasgow city council elections, in May 2022, the Conservatives only finished fourth in Pollokshields ward (70% of which is within the new SW constituency boundaries), with 12.5% of first preferences, thus being behind the SNP (30.6%), Labour (23.4%) and the Green party (22.1%) – the Greens did very well in the more affluent Glasgow wards that year, actually finishing top in Hillhead ward (in North constituency), for example.
In partial compensation for gaining the new voters from Central, South West loses 18% of its own electorate to Paisley & Renfrewshire South, that seat now crossing the rather indistinct Paisley/Glasgow boundary. 11,600 electors of Glasgow SW are shifted out of the city constituency: this consists of just over half of Cardonald ward, north of the A761, including North Cardonald, Hillington and the massive Hillington industrial estate (where a good number of residents of the existing constituency work anyway). Labour actually slightly outpolled the SNP in the 2022 Glasgow city council elections in Cardonald ward in 2022. Overall, however, the boundary changes overall should not make Labour’s task of regaining Glasgow South West significantly harder.
In a party political sense, there is not much to distinguish Glasgow South West from most other seats in the region. Labour did not quite manage to regain the seat in their 2017 mini-recovery, but they only fell short by 60 votes. Going into 2019, there were rumours that the SNP were very worried that they would lose this seat. This fear ultimately proved unfounded, although it must be noted that Labour remained stronger here than in any other Glasgow seat apart from Glasgow North East. Like everywhere else in Glasgow – they will almost certainly have to win it back to regain some credibility in Scottish politics, as well as to win a majority at the next election.
Recent evidence suggests they have a fair chance, unless opinion north of the border again changes dramatically. In May 2022 Labour achieved the most first preferences in the Greater Pollok ward on Glasgow City council, with 43.7% compared with the Nationalists’ 38.7% - and this is the largest single element within SW, with an electorate of over 24,500 in the Scottish Boundary Commission’s report. The SNP did lead in Govan ward by 38% to 30%, but nearly half of Labour inclined Cardonald is still in the seat. More significantly still, after May 2022 the SNP suffered some severe public blows and have slipped dramatically in the Scottish opinion polls vis-a-vis Labour, so that it would now be a disappointment for the latter if they do not gain constituencies such as Glasgow SW where they were very competitive in 2017.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.0% 453/650
Owner-occupied 49.2% 582/650
Private rented 9.7% 590/650
Social rented 39.8% 11/650
White 90.8% 417/650
Black 1.9% 181/650
Asian 6.6% 179/650
Managerial & professional 19.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 36.0%
Degree level 16.2% 607/650
No qualifications 37.6% 8/650
Students 8.5% 201/650
2022 Census
Age 65+ 13.8%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Glasgow South West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Chris Stephens 17,643 47.9 +7.2
Labour Co-op Matt Kerr 12,743 34.6 -5.9
Conservative Thomas Haddow 4,224 11.5 -4.1
Liberal Democrats Ben Denton-Cardew 1,435 3.9 +2.0
Brexit Party Peter Brown 802 2.2 N/A
SNP Majority 4,900 13.3 +13.1
2019 electorate 64,575
Turnout 36,847 57.1 +0.9
SNP hold
Swing 6.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow South West consists of
81.9% of Glasgow South West
19.4% of Glasgow Central
6.8% of Glasgow South
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_south_west_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Of Glasgow’s six constituencies, Glasgow South West may be the hardest to characterise as it is the most socially mixed. It is a largely working-class seat, but although it is the third-most deprived in Scotland, the endemic deprivation found in Glasgow East and Glasgow North East isn’t quite as pronounced here, and what deprivation there is often sits cheek-by-jowl with more affluent areas. It does perhaps exemplify Glasgow’s urban sprawl better than any of the other seats – bordering Renfrewshire, several areas blend into one another and it can sometimes be difficult to know whether you are still in Glasgow or have stumbled into Paisley. That said, two of Glasgow's most prominent areas are located here, so Glasgow South West is more than just an urban corridor. This seat voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014 with a Yes vote in the low-to-mid fifties, and in 2016 it had a Remain vote of 59% - a few points lower than the Scottish national average.
One of this seat’s predecessors was the old Glasgow Govan, a seat which existed for 120 years. Govan is one of Glasgow’s best-known areas and most of it is today located in this seat (there is a smaller section within Glasgow Central). A distinct burgh from Glasgow until 1912, Govan was at one time the seventh-largest town in Scotland, and many Govanites still regard themselves as somewhat separate from the rest of the city. Like much of Glasgow, Govan is a former industrial powerhouse that has fallen on tough times since the 1960s. It was once the epicentre of Glasgow’s shipbuilding industry, and the imposing red sandstone office building of the old Fairfield Shipbuilders still stands as one of the most striking buildings in this area.
These days, however, Govan is renowned for two different structures. The first is, of course, Ibrox Stadium, home of Rangers since 1899. The second is the huge Queen Elizabeth University Hospital. Although the QE has had several well-publicised teething problems since opening in 2015, it is now firmly embedded in the local area. The hospital is but one part of Govan’s regeneration, and the area has even seen some gentrification (especially along the waterfront). Furthermore, there are a surprising number of students living here – the presence of the QE will likely bolster this even further, but because of cheap housing and very good transport links to the rest of the city, Govan has been popular with students for some time. Nonetheless, it remains a fairly deprived area, with a relatively high crime rate and poor educational attainment.
Travelling south past Craigton, we come to the part of the seat that is probably its most socially mixed, with affluence and deprivation co-existing, sometimes one street away from each other. Mosspark, sitting on a hill, has a higher-than-average rate of home-ownership for the city and offers a stunning view looking north to the city centre. Confusingly, there are two areas known as Crookston located here, each of them located on different sides of the White Cart Water. The northern Crookston is home to some fancy traditional Glaswegian villas, whilst the southern Crookston – home to Crookston Castle, one of Glasgow’s oldest structures – feels rather suburban and is full of newer builds.
The southern Crookston is located next to Pollok, this seat’s second-most prominent area after Govan. Pollok is one of Glasgow’s “Big Four” housing estates, although it is distinct from the others in that parts of it were built before the outbreak of the Second World War. At one point, Pollok housed around 30,000 people, but today the population is much lower as a result of the demolition of the substandard housing that once predominated here. The lack of social amenities in the Big Four housing estates has been well-documented, and aside from the massive Silverburn Shopping Centre, even today there is not much else to Pollok. There are still some areas of acute deprivation here, but in general, the area has seen a pronounced improvement in living conditions in recent decades. In a political sense, the area is most notable for being the home and base of Tommy Sheridan, the socialist firebrand who was one of Scottish politics' most interesting and controversial characters of the nineties and noughties. In his prime, Sheridan was capable of taking second place and nearly 30% of the vote in Holyrood's Glasgow Pollok seat; but the last time he contested Glasgow South West, in 2010, he couldn't even garner a thousand votes and lost his deposit.
Finally, we reach this seat’s southern extremity. This part of Glasgow has had a long association with the Scottish aristocracy and is accordingly named after one of the most prominent noble families – Darnley. The lords of Darnley were at one time among the most powerful in the country and reached their apogee when one of them married Mary Queen of Scots (he was later blown up in suspicious circumstances). It is therefore surprising that the modern area of Darnley is quite deprived, and along with Househillwood, Nitshill and Priesthill, make up one of this seat’s poorest areas. But there are also some areas of affluence in this part of the constituency. Southpark Village and the wonderfully-named area of Jenny Lind (after the Swedish classical singer), have more in common with neighbouring East Renfrewshire than with much else of this seat.
Glasgow South West has had two MPs since its establishment in 2005, neither of them especially big names. It was first held by Ian Davidson for the Labour and Co-operative Party, who had previously represented Glasgow Govan from 1992-1997, then Glasgow Pollok from 1997-2005. Davidson’s politics were rather idiosyncratic, as he was both a professed republican and a Eurosceptic. Since losing his seat in 2015 he appears to have left Glasgow and has contested several elections in his native Berwickshire. He was succeeded by Chris Stephens, a locally-popular but very low-key SNP backbencher, who sits very much on the left flank of his party.
In the extensive boundary changes in Glasgow caused by the abolition of its Central constituency, South West both gains and loses territory. It takes in 19% of Central, the third largest portion of that seat, extending the boundary of SW eastwards from Govan through the territory immediately south of the river Clyde –Kinning Park, Kingston, the junction of the urban M8 and M74 motorways, almost to Gorbals. This is all very much inner city even city centre, with considerable regeneration; it includes the Glasgow Science Centre and the headquarters of BBC Scotland on Pacific Quay. South of the M74 is more residential, as around Dumbreck. All of this is also within the Southside Holyrood constituency that elected Nicola Sturgeon from 2011 through 2021. East of that section is the second addition to SW – Pollokshields, transferred from Glasgow South.
To the north of Pollok Park, Pollokshields is the traditional home of Glasgow's monied elite, Wandering around Pollokshields today, you will see many of the largest and most expensive mansions in the city, many of which were once owned by Glasgow's shipbuilding and industrial magnates. Although it is right next to grittier areas such as Govan, it somehow manages to feel miles away from the rest of the city. It is also a surprisingly diverse area, with those from an Asian background making up more than a third of the population in some parts. Politically speaking, Pollokshields has long been an area of strength for the Conservatives, and for nearly two decades up until 2017, it was home to Glasgow's sole Conservative councillor. At the turn of the century, this was Catherine Lyon, whose strong opposition to the Iraq War led to her falling out with the party. Latterly, it was David Meikle, who was perhaps more famous for being married to one-time SNP MP for Glasgow East, Natalie McGarry! However in the most recent Glasgow city council elections, in May 2022, the Conservatives only finished fourth in Pollokshields ward (70% of which is within the new SW constituency boundaries), with 12.5% of first preferences, thus being behind the SNP (30.6%), Labour (23.4%) and the Green party (22.1%) – the Greens did very well in the more affluent Glasgow wards that year, actually finishing top in Hillhead ward (in North constituency), for example.
In partial compensation for gaining the new voters from Central, South West loses 18% of its own electorate to Paisley & Renfrewshire South, that seat now crossing the rather indistinct Paisley/Glasgow boundary. 11,600 electors of Glasgow SW are shifted out of the city constituency: this consists of just over half of Cardonald ward, north of the A761, including North Cardonald, Hillington and the massive Hillington industrial estate (where a good number of residents of the existing constituency work anyway). Labour actually slightly outpolled the SNP in the 2022 Glasgow city council elections in Cardonald ward in 2022. Overall, however, the boundary changes overall should not make Labour’s task of regaining Glasgow South West significantly harder.
In a party political sense, there is not much to distinguish Glasgow South West from most other seats in the region. Labour did not quite manage to regain the seat in their 2017 mini-recovery, but they only fell short by 60 votes. Going into 2019, there were rumours that the SNP were very worried that they would lose this seat. This fear ultimately proved unfounded, although it must be noted that Labour remained stronger here than in any other Glasgow seat apart from Glasgow North East. Like everywhere else in Glasgow – they will almost certainly have to win it back to regain some credibility in Scottish politics, as well as to win a majority at the next election.
Recent evidence suggests they have a fair chance, unless opinion north of the border again changes dramatically. In May 2022 Labour achieved the most first preferences in the Greater Pollok ward on Glasgow City council, with 43.7% compared with the Nationalists’ 38.7% - and this is the largest single element within SW, with an electorate of over 24,500 in the Scottish Boundary Commission’s report. The SNP did lead in Govan ward by 38% to 30%, but nearly half of Labour inclined Cardonald is still in the seat. More significantly still, after May 2022 the SNP suffered some severe public blows and have slipped dramatically in the Scottish opinion polls vis-a-vis Labour, so that it would now be a disappointment for the latter if they do not gain constituencies such as Glasgow SW where they were very competitive in 2017.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.0% 453/650
Owner-occupied 49.2% 582/650
Private rented 9.7% 590/650
Social rented 39.8% 11/650
White 90.8% 417/650
Black 1.9% 181/650
Asian 6.6% 179/650
Managerial & professional 19.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 36.0%
Degree level 16.2% 607/650
No qualifications 37.6% 8/650
Students 8.5% 201/650
2022 Census
Age 65+ 13.8%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Glasgow South West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Chris Stephens 17,643 47.9 +7.2
Labour Co-op Matt Kerr 12,743 34.6 -5.9
Conservative Thomas Haddow 4,224 11.5 -4.1
Liberal Democrats Ben Denton-Cardew 1,435 3.9 +2.0
Brexit Party Peter Brown 802 2.2 N/A
SNP Majority 4,900 13.3 +13.1
2019 electorate 64,575
Turnout 36,847 57.1 +0.9
SNP hold
Swing 6.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow South West consists of
81.9% of Glasgow South West
19.4% of Glasgow Central
6.8% of Glasgow South
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_south_west_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20094 | 46.7% |
| Lab | 14561 | 33.8% |
| Con | 5423 | 12.6% |
| LD | 1892 | 4.4% |
| Brexit | 695 | 1.6% |
| Green | 358 | 0.8% |
| Majority | 5533 | 12.9% |
