Post by Robert Waller on Dec 14, 2023 23:20:40 GMT
The constituency of Windsor in the eastern part of the Royal County of Berkshire is, perhaps surprisingly, not as uniformly upper class or elite as may be thought from some of its best known elements. Yes, this is the location of Windsor Castle the principal residence if the monarchy, and of Eton College, which has a strong claim to be the best known, if not the best, school in the world (it has reduced no fewer than 20 Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom, so far). At present it also includes the whole of Ascot, not only the site of the most upmarket racecourse in the land but of the fictional Oliver Lacon, the inscrutable senior mandarin in Le Carre’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; indeed at the time that was written there was still a civil service college at Sunningdale (as in the ill-starred Northern Ireland agreement of 1973; it closed in 2012). Yet there are also plenty of much more ‘ordinary’ neighbourhoods in the current Windsor, to make it a mixed constituency socially and economically, and after fairly substantial boundary changes, including a crossing of the county boundary with Surrey, that will very much still be the case.
In the boundary review Berkshire is entitled to nine seats and a new seat is created in the centre of the county, in the Reading suburbs. Most of the remaining constituencies remain more or less intact but with varying degrees of changes to accommodate the new seat. Creating nine seats entirely within Berkshire would have been difficult as the average electorate would be close to the lower limit. This has been solved by adding some Surrey wards to the Windsor seat. Initially it was proposed to add the Egham Hythe and Egham Town wards from Runnymede but these are poorly connected to the seat so on the revised proposals these are replaced by the Englefield Green wards and Virginia Water.
Additionally this seat gains the Foxborough and Langley Kederminster wards of Slough and to accommodate all these additions loses some 20,000 voters in the Bracknell Forest wards currently included, such as those around Binfield and Winkfield as well as parts of west and north Ascot. The Slough wards are quite safely Labour and there is a sizeable Labour vote in Englefield Green too, in its western ward which includes a sizeable social housing estate, and also perhaps, if they turn out, the students of Royal Holloway University in Englefield Green East ward; but not in Virginia Water, which is one of the most exclusive neighbourhoods in the whole of Surrey and takes in the super-wealthy private Wentworth estate around its famed golf course.
This does mean that the race for second place in this seat would have been very close in 2019. The race for first place, not so much.
(Credit Pete Whitehead)
71% of the former Windsor constituency remains in the redrawn seat, and, like the new additions, that is also rather heterogeneous. Indeed, on current ward boundaries the elite elements of Eton and Windsor are actually confined within a single ward of Eton & Castle, which crosses the Thames which separates these auspicious institutions. The rest of the town of Windsor (sometimes known as New Windsor (indeed that was the official title of the Royal Borough from medieval times until the creation of Windsor & Maidenhead in 1974) is mainly decidedly average in status. All three of its wards are named Clewer. Near to the Windsor racecourse there are even high rise tower blocks, and there are substantial sections of social housing in Clewer Green, Clewer New Town, and also in Dedworth and in Spital near the non league Windsor and Eton FC. Apart from some bijou properties in the centre of the town, the only really upmarket part of Windsor is St Leonard’s Hill, in the far south of the town towards Windsor Great Park and Legoland.
Old Windsor too is not quite what might be expected. Sir Elton John has a mansion in the countryside nearby, off Crimp Hill on the way to Englefield Green, and the residents of Burfield Road are such that turning let out if the De Vere Beaumont hotel along that way is frowned upon, but much of Old Windsor is far from posh. Even Eton Wick is characterised by social rented housing as a drive along Eton Wick Road will testify. Elsewhere the constituency includes the scrubby terrain in its eastern extremity, confined between the M4 and the M25, under the Heathrow flight oath, and including such uninspiring locations as Poyle, Horton and Colnbrook (a part of Slough borough already in the seat before the boundary changes.) The only attractive enclave at this end of the division is Wraysbury.
Most of the southern and western segment of the former Windsor has been removed to Maidenhead, though the affluent Sunninghill and Sunningdale remain along with most of Ascot including the racecourse; this section will fit well with the new addition of Virginia Water, and not just because Sunningdale like Wentworth is one of the homes of English golf (and literally, of some of the most successful golfers): the proportion of those in work who are managers, directors and senior officials is 29.4% in South Ascot & Sunningdale MSOA 29.1% in Virginia Water. The wide variety in the Windsor constituency is illustrated by the corresponding figures for Dedworth being 14% and Clewer New Town 17% and, in the Slough section, in Langley Kedermister it is 11.4% and in Langley Foxborough 11.0%, and Colnbrook and Poyle 10.5%. The proportion of households deprived in some dimension varies from 57.3% in Langley Kedermister to 47% in Dedworth and Clewer New Town in Windsor to 35% in Virginia Water and South Ascot & Sunningdale.
There is also a political spread within the lines of the new Windsor, but again this is not quite what might be expected from the general election results (a 20,000 Conservative majority in December 2019). In the Windsor & Maidenhead municipal elections of May 2023, for example, the only wards the Tories within the Windsor constituency were Ascot & Sunninghill and Sunningdale & (the very inappropriately named) Cheapside. They also too Virginia Water in the Runnymede additions, though only by a narrow margin in a straight fight with the Lib Dems. But Residents easily won Old Windsor and Datchet, Horton & Wraysbury (the top candidate technically running on an anti-flood label), along with Clewer & Dedworth West in Windsor town, while Independents took Clewer & Dedworth East. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats retained Clewer East with 80% of the vote and gained all three council seats in Eton & Castle. Labour gained Englefield Green West from the Tories, their only victory here apart from 1996, 1998 and 2022; a ‘no description’ independent easily won Englefield Green East.
In the Slough borough elections in 2023 (on new ward boundaries) Labour held Foxborough, but the Conservatives took the marginal Colnbrook with Poyle and Langley Marish (the successor to Kedermister), which was something of a surprise as Kedermister had been won by Labour ever since 1983 – but this was connected with local matters that led to a net Tory gain of 17 and a Labour loss of 17 that year (after the bankruptcy of the council). It should not be regarded as a reliable guide to the likely preferences of these Slough wards in the next general election, although there may be some backlash against the ULEZ extension as there was in the Uxbridge byelection, given that some (like taxi drivers) work at Heathrow Airport.
Amid all this variety, it is highly unlikely that the Windsor constituency will have a change of incumbent as the castle has done since the last general election, even if the Conservatives have their own annus horribilis in 2024. The localist success in other wards within the Windsor seat may well favour the Tories in Westminster contests. There is not enough of Slough added to give Labour a chance of winning, even if it returns to its usual voting patterns after rejecting them at council level in 2023. As for the Liberal Democrats, they are likely to focus locally more on Maidenhead, where their municipal strength is much more consistent. The boundary changes make it less clear who is the main challenger, so hinder tactical voting. However the Windsor seat has, without doubt, become even more diverse in nature, now with well above average percentages of Asians and students, as well as a wide range of occupational, housing and social experiences; perhaps something of a microcosm of the kingdom itself, not far off within sight of the ramparts of Windsor Castle.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.3% 400/575
Owner occupied 61.1% 229/573
Private rented 23.3% 184/573
Social rented 15.6% 468/573
White 73.5% 446/575
Black 2.9% 186/575
Asian 16.8% 82/575
Managerial & professional 40.3% 41/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.4% 531/575
Degree level 41.5% 79/575
No qualifications 12.9% 540/575
Students 11.7% 79/575
General Election 2019: Windsor
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Adam Afriyie 31,501 58.6 -5.8
Liberal Democrats Julian Tisi 11,422 21.3 +11.2
Labour Peter Shearman 8,147 15.2 -7.7
Green Fintan McKeown 1,796 3.3 +0.7
Independent David Buckley 508 0.9
Independent Wisdom Da Costa 376 0.7
C Majority 20,079 37.3 -4.2
2019 electorate 75,038
Turnout 53,750 71.6 -1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Windsor consists of
71.0% of Windsor
14.9% of Runnymede & Weybridge
10.6% of Slough
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_369_Windsor_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
In the boundary review Berkshire is entitled to nine seats and a new seat is created in the centre of the county, in the Reading suburbs. Most of the remaining constituencies remain more or less intact but with varying degrees of changes to accommodate the new seat. Creating nine seats entirely within Berkshire would have been difficult as the average electorate would be close to the lower limit. This has been solved by adding some Surrey wards to the Windsor seat. Initially it was proposed to add the Egham Hythe and Egham Town wards from Runnymede but these are poorly connected to the seat so on the revised proposals these are replaced by the Englefield Green wards and Virginia Water.
Additionally this seat gains the Foxborough and Langley Kederminster wards of Slough and to accommodate all these additions loses some 20,000 voters in the Bracknell Forest wards currently included, such as those around Binfield and Winkfield as well as parts of west and north Ascot. The Slough wards are quite safely Labour and there is a sizeable Labour vote in Englefield Green too, in its western ward which includes a sizeable social housing estate, and also perhaps, if they turn out, the students of Royal Holloway University in Englefield Green East ward; but not in Virginia Water, which is one of the most exclusive neighbourhoods in the whole of Surrey and takes in the super-wealthy private Wentworth estate around its famed golf course.
This does mean that the race for second place in this seat would have been very close in 2019. The race for first place, not so much.
(Credit Pete Whitehead)
71% of the former Windsor constituency remains in the redrawn seat, and, like the new additions, that is also rather heterogeneous. Indeed, on current ward boundaries the elite elements of Eton and Windsor are actually confined within a single ward of Eton & Castle, which crosses the Thames which separates these auspicious institutions. The rest of the town of Windsor (sometimes known as New Windsor (indeed that was the official title of the Royal Borough from medieval times until the creation of Windsor & Maidenhead in 1974) is mainly decidedly average in status. All three of its wards are named Clewer. Near to the Windsor racecourse there are even high rise tower blocks, and there are substantial sections of social housing in Clewer Green, Clewer New Town, and also in Dedworth and in Spital near the non league Windsor and Eton FC. Apart from some bijou properties in the centre of the town, the only really upmarket part of Windsor is St Leonard’s Hill, in the far south of the town towards Windsor Great Park and Legoland.
Old Windsor too is not quite what might be expected. Sir Elton John has a mansion in the countryside nearby, off Crimp Hill on the way to Englefield Green, and the residents of Burfield Road are such that turning let out if the De Vere Beaumont hotel along that way is frowned upon, but much of Old Windsor is far from posh. Even Eton Wick is characterised by social rented housing as a drive along Eton Wick Road will testify. Elsewhere the constituency includes the scrubby terrain in its eastern extremity, confined between the M4 and the M25, under the Heathrow flight oath, and including such uninspiring locations as Poyle, Horton and Colnbrook (a part of Slough borough already in the seat before the boundary changes.) The only attractive enclave at this end of the division is Wraysbury.
Most of the southern and western segment of the former Windsor has been removed to Maidenhead, though the affluent Sunninghill and Sunningdale remain along with most of Ascot including the racecourse; this section will fit well with the new addition of Virginia Water, and not just because Sunningdale like Wentworth is one of the homes of English golf (and literally, of some of the most successful golfers): the proportion of those in work who are managers, directors and senior officials is 29.4% in South Ascot & Sunningdale MSOA 29.1% in Virginia Water. The wide variety in the Windsor constituency is illustrated by the corresponding figures for Dedworth being 14% and Clewer New Town 17% and, in the Slough section, in Langley Kedermister it is 11.4% and in Langley Foxborough 11.0%, and Colnbrook and Poyle 10.5%. The proportion of households deprived in some dimension varies from 57.3% in Langley Kedermister to 47% in Dedworth and Clewer New Town in Windsor to 35% in Virginia Water and South Ascot & Sunningdale.
There is also a political spread within the lines of the new Windsor, but again this is not quite what might be expected from the general election results (a 20,000 Conservative majority in December 2019). In the Windsor & Maidenhead municipal elections of May 2023, for example, the only wards the Tories within the Windsor constituency were Ascot & Sunninghill and Sunningdale & (the very inappropriately named) Cheapside. They also too Virginia Water in the Runnymede additions, though only by a narrow margin in a straight fight with the Lib Dems. But Residents easily won Old Windsor and Datchet, Horton & Wraysbury (the top candidate technically running on an anti-flood label), along with Clewer & Dedworth West in Windsor town, while Independents took Clewer & Dedworth East. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats retained Clewer East with 80% of the vote and gained all three council seats in Eton & Castle. Labour gained Englefield Green West from the Tories, their only victory here apart from 1996, 1998 and 2022; a ‘no description’ independent easily won Englefield Green East.
In the Slough borough elections in 2023 (on new ward boundaries) Labour held Foxborough, but the Conservatives took the marginal Colnbrook with Poyle and Langley Marish (the successor to Kedermister), which was something of a surprise as Kedermister had been won by Labour ever since 1983 – but this was connected with local matters that led to a net Tory gain of 17 and a Labour loss of 17 that year (after the bankruptcy of the council). It should not be regarded as a reliable guide to the likely preferences of these Slough wards in the next general election, although there may be some backlash against the ULEZ extension as there was in the Uxbridge byelection, given that some (like taxi drivers) work at Heathrow Airport.
Amid all this variety, it is highly unlikely that the Windsor constituency will have a change of incumbent as the castle has done since the last general election, even if the Conservatives have their own annus horribilis in 2024. The localist success in other wards within the Windsor seat may well favour the Tories in Westminster contests. There is not enough of Slough added to give Labour a chance of winning, even if it returns to its usual voting patterns after rejecting them at council level in 2023. As for the Liberal Democrats, they are likely to focus locally more on Maidenhead, where their municipal strength is much more consistent. The boundary changes make it less clear who is the main challenger, so hinder tactical voting. However the Windsor seat has, without doubt, become even more diverse in nature, now with well above average percentages of Asians and students, as well as a wide range of occupational, housing and social experiences; perhaps something of a microcosm of the kingdom itself, not far off within sight of the ramparts of Windsor Castle.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.3% 400/575
Owner occupied 61.1% 229/573
Private rented 23.3% 184/573
Social rented 15.6% 468/573
White 73.5% 446/575
Black 2.9% 186/575
Asian 16.8% 82/575
Managerial & professional 40.3% 41/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.4% 531/575
Degree level 41.5% 79/575
No qualifications 12.9% 540/575
Students 11.7% 79/575
General Election 2019: Windsor
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Adam Afriyie 31,501 58.6 -5.8
Liberal Democrats Julian Tisi 11,422 21.3 +11.2
Labour Peter Shearman 8,147 15.2 -7.7
Green Fintan McKeown 1,796 3.3 +0.7
Independent David Buckley 508 0.9
Independent Wisdom Da Costa 376 0.7
C Majority 20,079 37.3 -4.2
2019 electorate 75,038
Turnout 53,750 71.6 -1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Windsor consists of
71.0% of Windsor
14.9% of Runnymede & Weybridge
10.6% of Slough
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_369_Windsor_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 28036 | 56.0% |
| Lab | 9789 | 19.6% |
| LD | 9441 | 18.9% |
| Grn | 1729 | 3.5% |
| Brexit | 152 | 0.3% |
| Oth | 884 | 1.8% |
| Majority | 18247 | 36.5% |
