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Post by michaelarden on Feb 20, 2024 14:37:38 GMT
Two weeks or so to set up the recall process. Six weeks to run recall. That takes us to early April. If no election in May then that's a summer byelection three months before the expected general election, so it really will be this generation's Wirral South. He could of course do a Boris and jump before being pushed. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 20, 2024 15:03:55 GMT
No by election before Whitsun - if at all. Also the seat is unlikely to become vacant until mid-April and there is no obligation on the Government to move the writ immediately. If the recall petition makes the seat vacant in mid-April, then the by-election is likely in June. It wouldn’t be viable or realistic - even at this late stage in the parliament - to leave it vacant for what could be 5 months if a general election is presumed or expected to be in in November. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 15:21:53 GMT
No by election before Whitsun - if at all. Also the seat is unlikely to become vacant until mid-April and there is no obligation on the Government to move the writ immediately. If the recall petition makes the seat vacant in mid-April, then the by-election is likely in June. It wouldn’t be viable or realistic - even at this late stage in the parliament - to leave it vacant for what could be 5 months if a general election is presumed or expected to be in in November. There are precedents upon which the Government could rely should it wish to do so. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 16:38:53 GMT
Two weeks or so to set up the recall process. Six weeks to run recall. That takes us to early April. If no election in May then that's a summer byelection three months before the expected general election, so it really will be this generation's Wirral South. He could of course do a Boris and jump before being pushed. No by election before Whitsun - if at all. Also the seat is unlikely to become vacant until mid-April and there is no obligation on the Government to move the writ immediately. If the recall petition makes the seat vacant in mid-April, then the by-election is likely in June. It wouldn’t be viable or realistic - even at this late stage in the parliament - to leave it vacant for what could be 5 months if a general election is presumed or expected to be in in November. These are perhaps the two likely options.[/div] |
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graham
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 17:07:33 GMT
He could of course do a Boris and jump before being pushed. If the recall petition makes the seat vacant in mid-April, then the by-election is likely in June. It wouldn’t be viable or realistic - even at this late stage in the parliament - to leave it vacant for what could be 5 months if a general election is presumed or expected to be in in November. These are perhaps the two likely options. [/div][/quote] I would not be surprised to see the Government seek to avoid a by election. A convention has developed to the effect that a writ should normally be moved within 3 months of a seat becoming vacant. That could take us through to July by which time it could be argued that conditions are not 'normal' in that a Dissolution is but a couple of months away. Moreover, only local constituents are likely to be at all bothered by failure to call the by election, and as this is a seat the Tories are likely to be resigned to losing anway at the GE it is far from clear they have much more to lose! |
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Post by gibbon on Feb 20, 2024 17:16:30 GMT
To shame the Conservatives it may be that as soon as it is possible to do so, assuming that the recall process needs to be activated, Labour might move the writ for a by-election just to force the issue.
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 17:18:05 GMT
To shame the Conservatives it may be that as soon as it is possible to do so, assuming that the recall process needs to be activated, Labour might move the writ for a by-election just to force the issue. But the Government would be likely to block it or vote it down. |
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 20, 2024 17:23:06 GMT
To shame the Conservatives it may be that as soon as it is possible to do so, assuming that the recall process needs to be activated, Labour might move the writ for a by-election just to force the issue. But the Government would be likely to block it or vote it down. To which the common man would say "Are you defending the selling of access to ministers? If so, then you should all go!". I mean there is already serious discussions about a 1993 Canada event at the next election here in the UK, not just a repeat of 1997. |
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 17:26:00 GMT
But the Government would be likely to block it or vote it down. To which the common man would say "Are you defending the selling of access to ministers? If so, then you should all go!". I mean there is already serious discussions about a 1993 Canada event at the next election here in the UK, not just a repeat of 1997. I am not supporting a decision to avoid the by election , but don't expect many voters outside the constituency to be interested. |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 20, 2024 17:28:44 GMT
To shame the Conservatives it may be that as soon as it is possible to do so, assuming that the recall process needs to be activated, Labour might move the writ for a by-election just to force the issue. But the Government would be likely to block it or vote it down. Yes, but it would be a bad look after there has been a public vote for recall, with its surrounding publicity. I think the Conservatives might just let it go. They are certain to lose the seat at the General Election anyway, and at this stage there's really nothing in the way of adverse publicity to be lost. With a bit of luck they could claim it as the sign of a swing back. |
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 17:33:55 GMT
But the Government would be likely to block it or vote it down. Yes, but it would be a bad look after there has been a public vote for recall, with its surrounding publicity. I think the Conservatives might just let it go. They are certain to lose the seat at the General Election anyway, and at this stage there's really nothing in the way of adverse publicity to be lost. With a bit of luck they could claim it as the sign of a swing back. Possibly - but I can also see them wanting to avoid yet another defeat so close to a GE. They might cite cost saving grounds. There are also precedents - Berwick upon Tweed from 1973 comes to mind when Lambton resigned in late May and Alan Beith not being elected until early November. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 20, 2024 18:46:45 GMT
Blackpool is known for low turnout and a general feeling of alienation and despair-will this recall petition actually meet the 10% threshold?
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Post by newsouthender on Feb 20, 2024 19:20:17 GMT
Blackpool is known for low turnout and a general feeling of alienation and despair-will this recall petition actually meet the 10% threshold? It really isn't all like that here! Quite a bit of the constituency is perfectly nice residential suburbs. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 19:47:03 GMT
Blackpool is known for low turnout and a general feeling of alienation and despair-will this recall petition actually meet the 10% threshold? It really isn't all like that here! Quite a bit of the constituency is perfectly nice residential suburbs. South, as is, is full of contrasts. The housing around the airport and out towards Halfway House and The Shovels (I refer only to pubs in my wayfaring) is perfectly nice suburbia. It's the South Shore area that people think of when they refer to tumbledown Blackpool (Boundary changes turns this into, effectively "Blackpool" and I wish they'd called it that because 'southern' it is not) |
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Post by stb12 on Feb 20, 2024 19:56:58 GMT
It feels like there’s been so many recalls that at this stage it may not come across to people as the significant news it generally has been
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Post by newsouthender on Feb 20, 2024 20:01:52 GMT
As is the area around Stanley Park. I live in one of the Town Centre wards and even in those there are perfectly nice residential streets. The boarded up properties around Central Drive and Lytham Road get a lot of attention but there are very few voters who turn out round there!
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 20:04:01 GMT
It feels like there’s been so many recalls that at this stage it may not come across to people as the significant news it generally has been Recall is the most significant fixture of electoral reform in years and I think the rapid way it's been accepted into our political system is remarkable. I suppose nobody expected quite so many MPs to have decided to "choose violence" by ignoring it. Maybe the next set of MPs will now get the hint that Recall could get them next. |
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Post by stb12 on Feb 20, 2024 20:18:40 GMT
It feels like there’s been so many recalls that at this stage it may not come across to people as the significant news it generally has been Recall is the most significant fixture of electoral reform in years and I think the rapid way it's been accepted into our political system is remarkable. I suppose nobody expected quite so many MPs to have decided to "choose violence" by ignoring it. Maybe the next set of MPs will now get the hint that Recall could get them next. Well whatever someone’s views on it are it’s certainly had an impact. I haven’t looked at the exact numbers but it must be at least a significant percentage of the by-elections this parliament that have now come about from recall or MPs resigning before facing the petition process? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 20:18:46 GMT
As is the area around Stanley Park. I live in one of the Town Centre wards and even in those there are perfectly nice residential streets. The boarded up properties around Central Drive and Lytham Road get a lot of attention but there are very few voters who turn out round there! This was my (outsider, I'm from Preston after all) profile of the current seat if you've not already seen it: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/14266/blackpool-south |
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 20, 2024 22:27:46 GMT
Recall is the most significant fixture of electoral reform in years and I think the rapid way it's been accepted into our political system is remarkable. I suppose nobody expected quite so many MPs to have decided to "choose violence" by ignoring it. Maybe the next set of MPs will now get the hint that Recall could get them next. Well whatever someone’s views on it are it’s certainly had an impact. I haven’t looked at the exact numbers but it must be at least a significant percentage of the by-elections this parliament that have now come about from recall or MPs resigning before facing the petition process? As the Union of South Africa was the annexing of the Boer provinces by Cape Colony, couldn't they just rescind the annexation?  |
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