graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 18, 2024 12:58:16 GMT
Yeah, if the Tories don't call a May election this one is likely happening. I believe there are procedures available to government Whips which effecively block attempts by the Opposition to move the Writ. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2024 11:51:10 GMT
If a recall petition is passed, it could be argued they are morally obliged to let a byelection go ahead if a GE doesn't intervene.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Feb 20, 2024 11:14:12 GMT
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Post by adlai52 on Feb 20, 2024 11:29:32 GMT
Unironically, a Blackpool by-election in the Spring/Early Summer could be a nice day out for the activists. Not expecting to see many Conservative MPs making the trek after the poor attendance in Kingswood and Wellingborough though. CCHQ will be spread v thin with the locals in May, but cutting the campaign lose could see the Con vote really crater in a seat like Blackpool South. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 11:30:56 GMT
Two weeks or so to set up the recall process. Six weeks to run recall. That takes us to early April. If no election in May then that's a summer byelection three months before the expected general election, so it really will be this generation's Wirral South. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 20, 2024 11:36:24 GMT
Blackpool South is a very low turnout seat, so at least the Conservatives won't need to think up a new excuse.
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Feb 20, 2024 11:46:13 GMT
Blackpool South is a very low turnout seat, so at least the Conservatives won't need to think up a new excuse. I wonder if this might be reflected in having difficulty, despite the shaming circumstances for Benton, in assembling sufficient signatures to trigger a recall? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 20, 2024 11:54:44 GMT
I did have that thought, but the local Labour party is well organised and can hopefully get it over the line.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 20, 2024 12:15:17 GMT
Blackpool South is a very low turnout seat, so at least the Conservatives won't need to think up a new excuse. I wonder if this might be reflected in having difficulty, despite the shaming circumstances for Benton, in assembling sufficient signatures to trigger a recall? It's certainly something that's worth the local CLP's while to worry about. That said, Wellingborough is also a lower-turnout constituency (if much less so than Blackpool South) and the threshold was comfortably cleared there. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 12:23:28 GMT
No by election before Whitsun - if at all. Also the seat is unlikely to become vacant until mid-April and there is no obligation on the Government to move the writ immediately.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 12:25:34 GMT
I wonder if this might be reflected in having difficulty, despite the shaming circumstances for Benton, in assembling sufficient signatures to trigger a recall? It's certainly something that's worth the local CLP's while to worry about. That said, Wellingborough is also a lower-turnout constituency (if much less so than Blackpool South) and the threshold was comfortably cleared there. Wellingborough is normally a high turnout seat. Turnout at GEs has been as high as 83% - and was over 75% at the December 1969 by election! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 12:30:19 GMT
No by election before Whitsun - if at all. Also the seat is unlikely to become vacant until mid-April and there is no obligation on the Government to move the writ immediately. All eyes on what happens to the Conservatives at the locals. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 20, 2024 12:32:27 GMT
It's certainly something that's worth the local CLP's while to worry about. That said, Wellingborough is also a lower-turnout constituency (if much less so than Blackpool South) and the threshold was comfortably cleared there. Wellingborough is normally a high turnout seat. Turnout at GEs has been as high as 83% - and was over 75% at the December 1969 by election! Was a high turnout seat. The past is another country and turnout apart from a last hurrah in 1992 has been generally trending downwards since the 50‘s. Whilst some of the old turnout patterns still apply, they have been shattered in most places and looking back at turnouts before 2001 is essentially futile. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 20, 2024 12:35:45 GMT
I predict
Lab 61%
Con 25%
Ref 9%
LD 3%
Grn 2%
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 20, 2024 12:36:51 GMT
I've changed the title to just mention the recall petition, for now.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 12:46:06 GMT
Wellingborough is normally a high turnout seat. Turnout at GEs has been as high as 83% - and was over 75% at the December 1969 by election! Was a high turnout seat. The past is another country and turnout apart from a last hurrah in 1992 has been generally trending downwards since the 50‘s. Whilst some of the old turnout patterns still apply, they have been shattered in most places and looking back at turnouts before 2001 is essentially futile. Turnout was still 82% there in 1982 and 75% in 1997. Turnout was still above average in 2005. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 20, 2024 13:50:11 GMT
So what you're saying is that if this was 20 years ago, you might have had a point?
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 14:07:09 GMT
So what you're saying is that if this was 20 years ago, you might have had a point? 2010 Turnout was 65.1% in UK - and 67.2% in Wellingborough 2015 UK turnout -66.2% -65.4% in Wellingborough 2017 UK turnout 68.8% 67.2% Wellingborough 2019 Uk turnout 67.3% 64.3% Wellingborough.
Turnout remained above average until 2015 and only fell a fair bit below in 2019.
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Post by Wisconsin on Feb 20, 2024 14:12:49 GMT
Does the Commons need to approve the suspension first? Any word on timing for the motion?
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Feb 20, 2024 14:14:59 GMT
Does the Commons need to approve the suspension first? Any word on timing for the motion? It does - will probably happen next week. |
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