Post by Robert Waller on Dec 13, 2023 20:28:35 GMT
The below is largely based on the well informed analysis of MacShimidh with some updates on boundary changes by myself
South is the constituency in Glasgow which is least altered in the sweeping changes necessitated by the reduction of the seats allocated to Scotland’s largest city from seven to six in the boundary review completed in June 2023. It loses 8.7% of its former electorate, almost entirely in the form of the Pollokshields neighbourhood which is transferred to Glasgow SW. In more than exchange, it takes 12.3% of the abolished Glasgow Central, which has been split five ways among all the other Glasgow seats except the new West. The sections that Glasgow South receives are that around Queens Park and its northern environs, including its station and part of Strathbungo, and a chunk north of Kings Park and east of Mount Florida, on each side of the B768 around Toryglen and Polmadie. Glasgow South now consists of the whole of the city wards of Langside and Linn, the vast majority of Newlands/Auldburn, about 30% of Pollokshields, and a small sliver of Southside Central.
Glasgow South on its previous lines was the most uniformly affluent of Glasgow's seven constituencies. To look at a list of areas contained within this seat - Cathcart, Newlands and Pollokshields, to name just three - is to look at a list of some of Scotland's most expensive and desirable urban areas. This characteristic will be somewhat weakened by the boundary chances due to the removal of Pollokshields and the arrival of some more ‘inner’ type areas from Central. Toryglen, for example is not a very appropriate name for the district, although its fearsome 1960s 23 story towers on Prospecthill Circus were all demolished by 2016 and replaced by low rise housing. There are, of course, some continuing areas of deprivation in this seat (the most obvious example being Castlemilk), but on the whole, this is still a constituency of impressive white sandstone tenements, large mansions located in leafy avenues, and sweeping vistas offering some of the best views over the city. It was the least amenable Glasgow constituency to Scottish independence, with Yes only barely scraping over 50% in 2014. However, its result in the 2016 referendum was far more emphatic, with a Remain vote of nearly 72% placing it amongst the most pro-EU constituencies anywhere in the UK.
The western boundary of this seat is dominated by the largest and most beloved of Glasgow's dear green places, Pollok Country Park. Containing 360 acres of lush greenery watered by the White Cart Water, the park is usually rammed on a sunny day, and it also attracts a fair number of tourists whenever the Burrell Collection is open. There is a mix of housing surrounding the park - to its south, Carnwadric and Mansewood are among the more deprived areas within this constituency. However, to the east of the park, we come across such neighbourhoods as Auldhouse, Newlands, and Cathcart, which are among the wealthiest not just in Glasgow but in the whole of Scotland. Owner-occupation is significantly higher here than in much of the rest of Glasgow, as are income levels, educational attainment and levels of public health.
Immediately to Pollokshields' southeast, but still in the South constituency, lies the Shawlands, the most central part of this seat. The Shawlands is popular with students and yuppies and has become highly gentrified, and has a completely different, more bohemian, feel to the rest of this seat. In contrast, nearby Langside is more middle-class and boasts the rather more stylish white sandstone tenements so popular in the more well-heeled parts of Glasgow. Historically speaking, this area has an association with Mary Queen of Scots, who in 1568 was decisively defeated at the Battle of Langside and forced into exile and eventual imprisonment in England. Glasgow has paid tribute to this history by quite literally naming the area Battlefield, and it is itself a rather desirable and prosperous area. As we head further east we come across another interesting Glaswegian place name in the form of Mount Florida. Whilst not quite as upmarket as Battlefield or Langside, Mount Florida has experienced some gentrification in recent years, especially around the train station, perhaps having to do with the area's national and even international repute as it is home to Hampden Park, Scotland's national football stadium.
Travelling south past King's Park, both the geography and the character of this constituency begin to shift noticeably. By the time we get to Croftfoot, the sandstone tenements have largely disappeared, being replaced instead by interwar "cottage" style housing. The terrain also becomes steadily more hilly as we begin climbing the Cathkin Braes. About halfway up the Braes, we find ourselves in Castlemilk, the most recently-built of Glasgow's "Big Four" post-war housing schemes. Castlemilk is by some distance the most deprived part of this constituency, and despite a sustained effort at regeneration, the area comes near the bottom of the list for several social indicators. If we travel further up the Braes, we come to Glasgow's most southerly point, the conservation village of Carmunnock. Carmunnock is one of the most unique places within the Glasgow city boundaries - indeed, it feels not so much a part of the nation's largest city, but more like a small Borders village. Additionally, it is one of the few places left in Glasgow where the Lib Dems still poll respectably, adding to the distinctiveness of the place.
Since its creation in 2005, Glasgow South has had two MPs. Its first was Labour's Tom Harris, first elected as MP for Glasgow Cathcart in 2001, and a contender for the most disliked politician of Scottish Labour's twilight years. Harris could perhaps be best described as a Blairite-on-steroids for whom even Gordon Brown was too left-wing. A junior minister from 2006-2008, Harris got a taste for higher office and subsequently stood for the leadership of Scottish Labour in 2011, but finished last with a derisory 8% of the vote. By the time of the 2015 general election, the idea of Scottish Labour as "Red Tories" had become a common talking point among nationalists, and although this was a largely bogus trope, politicians like Harris gave it some credence. In fact, he would go on to prove his critics quite right - after losing his seat, he subsequently left the party and backed the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019. His successor as MP for Glasgow South is the SNP's Stewart McDonald, a young party official seen by some as a rising star within the party.
At first glance, Glasgow South looks like most other seats in the region - it is a Labour seat that fell to the SNP in 2015. However, there are some key differences that set it apart from nearby constituencies. For instance, Labour's share of the vote has consistently been lower here than in most other Glasgow seats - even in their very strong year of 2010, they only barely scraped 50%. However, until 2015, the opposition was too small and too fragmented to give Labour any real scare here. The Lib Dems managed 20% in 2005, as did the SNP in 2010, but this was as close as anyone got. Furthermore, being the successor to the old Glasgow Cathcart, this was long the Conservatives' strongest seat in Glasgow, although up until 2017, "strongest" merely meant holding onto around 10% of the vote. But in a sign of the strange political times we live in, in 2019 they performed better in Glasgow North West and, of all places, Glasgow East!
As for the SNP, this has become their second-strongest seat in Glasgow, rather surprising given the relatively low Yes vote in 2014. One reason for their dominance may have to do with the local popularity of Nicola Sturgeon, who represents some northern sections of this seat at Holyrood, although in all likelihood, the seat's strongly pro-Remain bent is the most pertinent factor. At #112, this seat is now quite far down Labour's target list, and although it is still a must-win for them, they will probably have to hope for a collapse in the SNP vote before they can realistically expect to take it back.
This looked a lot more realistic as 2023 came to an end than it has in previous years, and even at the time of the May 2022 Glasgow city council elections Labour wasn’t far behind in the wards in the South constituency on its new boundaries. Yes, the SNP were still ahead on first preferences cast in all five of them, but in no case were they more than 7% ahead of Labour - and that was in Pollokshields, of which only a minority is now in the South Seat, and also where the Greens polled a high share (22%), as they did in several of the more middle class Glasgow wards that year. In Langside the Nationalists’ lead was 5.6% (though the Greens actually did very well here too and were actually second in terms of first preference share), in Linn 1.4% and in Newlands/Auldburn just 0.3% (and less than 3& in Central Southside, although so little of that ward is included that can’t tell us anything, really). Overall the SNP margin over Labour within the new South in 2022 would have been about 3.5% (Langside is the largest single bloc of electors, so raises the SNP lead).
That is already a large reduction since the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, where the Nationalist lead in Cathcart, the Holyrood constituency which covers most of the terrain in South for Westminster purposes, was 27.3%. A smaller part is within Glasgow Southside, which Nicola Sturgeon herself won by 29% over Labour. It is clear, given the trends in recent months, that Glasgow South must be regarded as a marginal, and it is probable that the relatively minor boundary changes here will not make a significant difference to the likelihood of a change of hand at the next general election. It will also be very interesting and important to see how the Green support, identified particularly in Langside ward in 2022, will hold up or split, as well as that remaining Tory share in the several more affluent neighbourhoods still present in Glasgow South on its new lines.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 14.5% 491/650
Owner-occupied 57.8% 511/650
Private rented 16.0% 229/650
Social rented 25.0% 111/650
White 88.8% 458/650
Black 1.4% 216/650
Asian 8.9% 138/650
Managerial & professional 33.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.0%
Degree level 31.4% 149/650
No qualifications 27.0% 178/650
Students 8.2% 214/650
2022 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5%
General Election 2019: Glasgow South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stewart McDonald 22,829 48.1 +7.0
Labour Co-op Johann Lamont 13,824 29.1 -7.5
Conservative Kyle Thornton 6,237 13.1 -6.0
Liberal Democrats Carole Ford 2,786 5.9 +2.7
Scottish Green Dan Hutchison 1,251 2.6
Brexit Party Danyaal Raja 516 1.1
SNP Majority 9,005 19.0 +14.5
Turnout 47,343 66.9 +2.5
SNP hold
Swing 7.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow South consists of
91.3% of Glasgow South
12.3% of Glasgow Central
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_south_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
South is the constituency in Glasgow which is least altered in the sweeping changes necessitated by the reduction of the seats allocated to Scotland’s largest city from seven to six in the boundary review completed in June 2023. It loses 8.7% of its former electorate, almost entirely in the form of the Pollokshields neighbourhood which is transferred to Glasgow SW. In more than exchange, it takes 12.3% of the abolished Glasgow Central, which has been split five ways among all the other Glasgow seats except the new West. The sections that Glasgow South receives are that around Queens Park and its northern environs, including its station and part of Strathbungo, and a chunk north of Kings Park and east of Mount Florida, on each side of the B768 around Toryglen and Polmadie. Glasgow South now consists of the whole of the city wards of Langside and Linn, the vast majority of Newlands/Auldburn, about 30% of Pollokshields, and a small sliver of Southside Central.
Glasgow South on its previous lines was the most uniformly affluent of Glasgow's seven constituencies. To look at a list of areas contained within this seat - Cathcart, Newlands and Pollokshields, to name just three - is to look at a list of some of Scotland's most expensive and desirable urban areas. This characteristic will be somewhat weakened by the boundary chances due to the removal of Pollokshields and the arrival of some more ‘inner’ type areas from Central. Toryglen, for example is not a very appropriate name for the district, although its fearsome 1960s 23 story towers on Prospecthill Circus were all demolished by 2016 and replaced by low rise housing. There are, of course, some continuing areas of deprivation in this seat (the most obvious example being Castlemilk), but on the whole, this is still a constituency of impressive white sandstone tenements, large mansions located in leafy avenues, and sweeping vistas offering some of the best views over the city. It was the least amenable Glasgow constituency to Scottish independence, with Yes only barely scraping over 50% in 2014. However, its result in the 2016 referendum was far more emphatic, with a Remain vote of nearly 72% placing it amongst the most pro-EU constituencies anywhere in the UK.
The western boundary of this seat is dominated by the largest and most beloved of Glasgow's dear green places, Pollok Country Park. Containing 360 acres of lush greenery watered by the White Cart Water, the park is usually rammed on a sunny day, and it also attracts a fair number of tourists whenever the Burrell Collection is open. There is a mix of housing surrounding the park - to its south, Carnwadric and Mansewood are among the more deprived areas within this constituency. However, to the east of the park, we come across such neighbourhoods as Auldhouse, Newlands, and Cathcart, which are among the wealthiest not just in Glasgow but in the whole of Scotland. Owner-occupation is significantly higher here than in much of the rest of Glasgow, as are income levels, educational attainment and levels of public health.
Immediately to Pollokshields' southeast, but still in the South constituency, lies the Shawlands, the most central part of this seat. The Shawlands is popular with students and yuppies and has become highly gentrified, and has a completely different, more bohemian, feel to the rest of this seat. In contrast, nearby Langside is more middle-class and boasts the rather more stylish white sandstone tenements so popular in the more well-heeled parts of Glasgow. Historically speaking, this area has an association with Mary Queen of Scots, who in 1568 was decisively defeated at the Battle of Langside and forced into exile and eventual imprisonment in England. Glasgow has paid tribute to this history by quite literally naming the area Battlefield, and it is itself a rather desirable and prosperous area. As we head further east we come across another interesting Glaswegian place name in the form of Mount Florida. Whilst not quite as upmarket as Battlefield or Langside, Mount Florida has experienced some gentrification in recent years, especially around the train station, perhaps having to do with the area's national and even international repute as it is home to Hampden Park, Scotland's national football stadium.
Travelling south past King's Park, both the geography and the character of this constituency begin to shift noticeably. By the time we get to Croftfoot, the sandstone tenements have largely disappeared, being replaced instead by interwar "cottage" style housing. The terrain also becomes steadily more hilly as we begin climbing the Cathkin Braes. About halfway up the Braes, we find ourselves in Castlemilk, the most recently-built of Glasgow's "Big Four" post-war housing schemes. Castlemilk is by some distance the most deprived part of this constituency, and despite a sustained effort at regeneration, the area comes near the bottom of the list for several social indicators. If we travel further up the Braes, we come to Glasgow's most southerly point, the conservation village of Carmunnock. Carmunnock is one of the most unique places within the Glasgow city boundaries - indeed, it feels not so much a part of the nation's largest city, but more like a small Borders village. Additionally, it is one of the few places left in Glasgow where the Lib Dems still poll respectably, adding to the distinctiveness of the place.
Since its creation in 2005, Glasgow South has had two MPs. Its first was Labour's Tom Harris, first elected as MP for Glasgow Cathcart in 2001, and a contender for the most disliked politician of Scottish Labour's twilight years. Harris could perhaps be best described as a Blairite-on-steroids for whom even Gordon Brown was too left-wing. A junior minister from 2006-2008, Harris got a taste for higher office and subsequently stood for the leadership of Scottish Labour in 2011, but finished last with a derisory 8% of the vote. By the time of the 2015 general election, the idea of Scottish Labour as "Red Tories" had become a common talking point among nationalists, and although this was a largely bogus trope, politicians like Harris gave it some credence. In fact, he would go on to prove his critics quite right - after losing his seat, he subsequently left the party and backed the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019. His successor as MP for Glasgow South is the SNP's Stewart McDonald, a young party official seen by some as a rising star within the party.
At first glance, Glasgow South looks like most other seats in the region - it is a Labour seat that fell to the SNP in 2015. However, there are some key differences that set it apart from nearby constituencies. For instance, Labour's share of the vote has consistently been lower here than in most other Glasgow seats - even in their very strong year of 2010, they only barely scraped 50%. However, until 2015, the opposition was too small and too fragmented to give Labour any real scare here. The Lib Dems managed 20% in 2005, as did the SNP in 2010, but this was as close as anyone got. Furthermore, being the successor to the old Glasgow Cathcart, this was long the Conservatives' strongest seat in Glasgow, although up until 2017, "strongest" merely meant holding onto around 10% of the vote. But in a sign of the strange political times we live in, in 2019 they performed better in Glasgow North West and, of all places, Glasgow East!
As for the SNP, this has become their second-strongest seat in Glasgow, rather surprising given the relatively low Yes vote in 2014. One reason for their dominance may have to do with the local popularity of Nicola Sturgeon, who represents some northern sections of this seat at Holyrood, although in all likelihood, the seat's strongly pro-Remain bent is the most pertinent factor. At #112, this seat is now quite far down Labour's target list, and although it is still a must-win for them, they will probably have to hope for a collapse in the SNP vote before they can realistically expect to take it back.
This looked a lot more realistic as 2023 came to an end than it has in previous years, and even at the time of the May 2022 Glasgow city council elections Labour wasn’t far behind in the wards in the South constituency on its new boundaries. Yes, the SNP were still ahead on first preferences cast in all five of them, but in no case were they more than 7% ahead of Labour - and that was in Pollokshields, of which only a minority is now in the South Seat, and also where the Greens polled a high share (22%), as they did in several of the more middle class Glasgow wards that year. In Langside the Nationalists’ lead was 5.6% (though the Greens actually did very well here too and were actually second in terms of first preference share), in Linn 1.4% and in Newlands/Auldburn just 0.3% (and less than 3& in Central Southside, although so little of that ward is included that can’t tell us anything, really). Overall the SNP margin over Labour within the new South in 2022 would have been about 3.5% (Langside is the largest single bloc of electors, so raises the SNP lead).
That is already a large reduction since the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, where the Nationalist lead in Cathcart, the Holyrood constituency which covers most of the terrain in South for Westminster purposes, was 27.3%. A smaller part is within Glasgow Southside, which Nicola Sturgeon herself won by 29% over Labour. It is clear, given the trends in recent months, that Glasgow South must be regarded as a marginal, and it is probable that the relatively minor boundary changes here will not make a significant difference to the likelihood of a change of hand at the next general election. It will also be very interesting and important to see how the Green support, identified particularly in Langside ward in 2022, will hold up or split, as well as that remaining Tory share in the several more affluent neighbourhoods still present in Glasgow South on its new lines.
2011 Census, old boundaries
Age 65+ 14.5% 491/650
Owner-occupied 57.8% 511/650
Private rented 16.0% 229/650
Social rented 25.0% 111/650
White 88.8% 458/650
Black 1.4% 216/650
Asian 8.9% 138/650
Managerial & professional 33.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.0%
Degree level 31.4% 149/650
No qualifications 27.0% 178/650
Students 8.2% 214/650
2022 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.5%
General Election 2019: Glasgow South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stewart McDonald 22,829 48.1 +7.0
Labour Co-op Johann Lamont 13,824 29.1 -7.5
Conservative Kyle Thornton 6,237 13.1 -6.0
Liberal Democrats Carole Ford 2,786 5.9 +2.7
Scottish Green Dan Hutchison 1,251 2.6
Brexit Party Danyaal Raja 516 1.1
SNP Majority 9,005 19.0 +14.5
Turnout 47,343 66.9 +2.5
SNP hold
Swing 7.2 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Glasgow South consists of
91.3% of Glasgow South
12.3% of Glasgow Central
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glasgow_south_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 23449 | 48.3% |
| Lab | 14298 | 29.5% |
| Con | 6161 | 12.7% |
| LD | 2922 | 6.0% |
| Green | 1266 | 2.6% |
| Brexit | 452 | 0.9% |
| Majority | 9151 | 18.9% |