Post by Robert Waller on Dec 12, 2023 0:37:18 GMT
Yes, there are hills in Lincolnshire. This seat effectively covers the north-eastern quadrant of the county. A popular impression of Lincolnshire is that it is composed entirely of flat fields growing vegetables and flowers under a huge sky. But this is belied by the Wolds, a green undulating landscape of mixed and wealthy farming. The windswept and rather untidy towns of the Fens are far away in spirit and in appearance from the elegant Louth, with its towering church spires. (In the nineteenth century Louth was known as the ‘nest of rooks’ because it was full of absentee black-coated clergymen hiding from their rural parishes, which became infected with Primitive Methodism.).
Louth has a population of 17,000 and is by far the largest urban unit in the seat. This is one of two Lincolnshire seats, along with South Holland and the Deepings, which ranks among the 20 most rural in Britain, and the ten such in England. The seat has also included the northern part of Lincolnshire’s resort coast, with communities such as Mablethorpe (2021 population 7,500), Sutton-on-Sea (5,000) and Chapel St Leonards (3,500), although Skegness and Ingoldmells were moved in the boundary changes in 1997 to a seat with a different character overall, Boston & Skegness. The same changes moved the small country market town of Horncastle (just over 7,000 souls) from its association with Gainsborough, which had lasted for three elections, and reunited it with much of the countryside with which it was formerly linked. At the same time the name of the seat under discussion was changed from East Lindsey to Louth and Horncastle. There have only been very limited boundary changes since, both in the review that came into force in 2010 and in the review that reported in 2023.
Of the minor changes in force for the next general election, presumably in 2024, the main ones are the transfer of the coast around Chapel St Leonards, along with Willoughby with Sloothby, to Boston & Skegness (this involves a loss of just over 6,000 voters), and the gain of the ward and very small town of Wragby from Gainsborough (which only involves 2,051 electors). These developments will not alter the character of Louth & Horncastle as a very safe Conservative seat. In December 2019 they obtained a massive 72.7 % share of the vote, which generated a numerical majority of 28,868. This made it the 9th safest of the 365 Tory victories that year, requiring a swing of 28% to Labour for it to fall. Not even the most optimistic of Starmerites is likely to believe this is possible.
That is not to say, though that Louth & Horncastle is either homogeneous or predominantly affluent. In fact in some surprising ways its demographic characteristics are rather extreme. It is perhaps to be expected that this is one of the most elderly constituencies in England and Wales in terms of age profile: in 9th place with 30.5% over 65. This figure was lower in the inland towns (Louth, 25% in the 2021 census, Horncastle 27%) but even higher in the villages and especially on the coast: Mablethorpe 35%, Sutton-on-Sea 50%.
But less predictable, perhaps, is that the constituency as a whole has as many routine and semi-routine workers as professional and managerial, and these working class characteristics are strongest in the apparently respectable coastal towns. Sutton-on-Sea is 34% routine/semi-routine, and Mablethorpe over 35%. These figures are not quite as high as a little further south down the coast in Skegness, and the loss of Chapel St Leonards also makes the figures for Louth & Horncastle as a whole a little less strongly down-scale.
The figures for educational qualifications are also very striking. The constituency is in the 60 with the lowest proportions of residents holding academic degrees. Again the percentage is lowest of all on the coast, at 15-16% in Mablethorpe and Sutton-on-Sea, but lower in the former than the latter, which shows that the phenomenon is not entirely correlated with age. But the graduate rate is under 25% in the inland urban MSOAs of Horncastle and Louth North & East as well. There are also a very small number of full time students anywhere in the constituency, which ranks 570th out of 575 in England and Wales on this score.
Where else does the exceptionally high level of Conservatism come from? Louth & Horncastle is nearly 98% white: one of the 30 highest figures in the country in 2021. It has very few social renters, just over 10%, and that concentrated mainly in a number of areas in Louth, around St Bernard’s Avenue (east Louth), Brackenborough Road (north east) and Welbeck Way and Badminton way (north west). But also to be considered are the issues that influence party preference. In the 2016 referendum, in the East Lindsey council area (a fair surrogate for this constituency) 70.7% voted to leave the EU, only 29.3% to Remain. In 2015 UKIP had finished second in the general election here with 10,778 votes. UKIP also won East Lindsey council seats that year, such as Mablethorpe, Marshchapel and Coningsby.
However it should not be assumed that the ‘Brexit’ vote transferred actually to the Conservatives, although in December 2019 much of it will have. In May 2023 for example, Labour won all three seats in Mablethorpe ward as well as the two single member Louth wards of Trinity (around its eastern St Bernard’s social housing estate) and North Holme (in the low-cost housing of north western Louth). In the 2017 Lincolnshire county council elections Labour won Louth South and Mablethorpe, though in 2021 the Conservatives regained the latter and an Independent took the former - closely followed by another Independent. Overall in May 2023 within Louth & Horncastle, on new boundaries, Independents took a plurality of votes, but the Conservatives led Labour by 34% to 22%.
This seat has an interesting history in two senses. There the variety of social and economic elements within its extensive acreage, such as the fine historic and well preserved centre of Louth, a little similar to Stamford, which is however at the other end of the county and much more on the beaten track: its magnificent spired (tallest parish church in England) St James’s church, the independent shops in the roads named ‘gates’, Westgate Fields and Hubbard’s Hills. Horncastle still has cobbled streets and thatched houses. Then there are the Victorian seaside resorts, though if they have any grandeur it is very much faded. In the south western corner of the seat is the small spa town of Woodhall Spa, with hotels to match but now more known for golf; it also has a strong connection with the RAF in World War Two, with its Dambusters memorial in Queen Square because it was the last wartime base of 617 squadron. There are many other less well known former aerodromes such as Kelstern, Spilsby and Manby – and still at Coningsby, which is also nearby the great brick castle at Tattershall. All of this gives the impression of a profound deeply entrenched Englishness, of tradition and conservatism, which might be typical of the heart of the country if it weren’t so much tucked away off the beaten track (there are no railways, never mind no motorways, in its very large area).
But Louth & Horncastle has another history too, of its members of Parliament. Louth was rather briefly Jeffrey Archer’s constituency. At the other end of the spectrum of longevity, if not of politics, Sir Peter Tapsell represented Horncastle, then East Lindsey, then Louth & Horncastle continuously for 49 years between 1966 and 2015. This was enough to become Father of the House – and he had previously served between 1959 and 1964 for Nottingham West, which does not count towards that honour. The current member Victoria Atkins was promoted Secretary of State for Health in November 2023. Her tenure of that role may not least very long. But it will not be a lack of loyalty of Louth & Horncastle to the Conservative party that will be responsible for that, as shown by its retention in July 2024 as one of a mere 121 seats in the Commons.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 30.5% 9/575
Owner occupied 71.0% 153/575
Private rented 18.4% 276/575
Social rented 10.6% 497/575
White 97.9% 16/575
Black 0.2% 551/575
Asian 0.7% 558/575
Managerial & professional 27.7% 425/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7% 147/575
Degree level 23.8% 516/575
No qualifications 22.3% 103/575
Students 3.8% 570/575
General Election 2024: Louth and Horncastle
Conservative Victoria Atkins 17,441 37.5 −35.0
Reform UK Sean Matthews 11,935 25.7 N/A
Labour Jonathan Slater 10,475 22.5 +4.8
Green Robert Watson 2,504 5.4 N/A
Liberal Democrats Ross Pepper 2,364 5.1 −2.7
Independent Paul Hugill 1,359 2.9 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Iconic Arty-Pole 309 0.7 −1.3
SDP Marcus Moorehouse 92 0.2 N/A
C Majority 5,506 11.8 −43.4
Turnout 46,479 60.6 −4.9
Registered electors 76,882
Conservative hold
Swing C to Reform 30.3
General Election 2019: Louth and Horncastle
Conservative Victoria Atkins 38,021 72.7 +8.8
Labour Ellie Green 9,153 17.5 -9.2
Liberal Democrats Ross Pepper 4,114 7.9 +4.1
Monster Raving Loony The Iconic Arty-Pole 1,044 2.0 +1.1
C Majority 28,868 55.2 +18.0
Turnout 52,332 65.5 -3.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Louth and Horncastle consists of
92.4% of Louth and Horncastle
2.7% of Gainsborough
0.6% of Boston & Skegness
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_026_Louth%20and%20Horncastle_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Louth has a population of 17,000 and is by far the largest urban unit in the seat. This is one of two Lincolnshire seats, along with South Holland and the Deepings, which ranks among the 20 most rural in Britain, and the ten such in England. The seat has also included the northern part of Lincolnshire’s resort coast, with communities such as Mablethorpe (2021 population 7,500), Sutton-on-Sea (5,000) and Chapel St Leonards (3,500), although Skegness and Ingoldmells were moved in the boundary changes in 1997 to a seat with a different character overall, Boston & Skegness. The same changes moved the small country market town of Horncastle (just over 7,000 souls) from its association with Gainsborough, which had lasted for three elections, and reunited it with much of the countryside with which it was formerly linked. At the same time the name of the seat under discussion was changed from East Lindsey to Louth and Horncastle. There have only been very limited boundary changes since, both in the review that came into force in 2010 and in the review that reported in 2023.
Of the minor changes in force for the next general election, presumably in 2024, the main ones are the transfer of the coast around Chapel St Leonards, along with Willoughby with Sloothby, to Boston & Skegness (this involves a loss of just over 6,000 voters), and the gain of the ward and very small town of Wragby from Gainsborough (which only involves 2,051 electors). These developments will not alter the character of Louth & Horncastle as a very safe Conservative seat. In December 2019 they obtained a massive 72.7 % share of the vote, which generated a numerical majority of 28,868. This made it the 9th safest of the 365 Tory victories that year, requiring a swing of 28% to Labour for it to fall. Not even the most optimistic of Starmerites is likely to believe this is possible.
That is not to say, though that Louth & Horncastle is either homogeneous or predominantly affluent. In fact in some surprising ways its demographic characteristics are rather extreme. It is perhaps to be expected that this is one of the most elderly constituencies in England and Wales in terms of age profile: in 9th place with 30.5% over 65. This figure was lower in the inland towns (Louth, 25% in the 2021 census, Horncastle 27%) but even higher in the villages and especially on the coast: Mablethorpe 35%, Sutton-on-Sea 50%.
But less predictable, perhaps, is that the constituency as a whole has as many routine and semi-routine workers as professional and managerial, and these working class characteristics are strongest in the apparently respectable coastal towns. Sutton-on-Sea is 34% routine/semi-routine, and Mablethorpe over 35%. These figures are not quite as high as a little further south down the coast in Skegness, and the loss of Chapel St Leonards also makes the figures for Louth & Horncastle as a whole a little less strongly down-scale.
The figures for educational qualifications are also very striking. The constituency is in the 60 with the lowest proportions of residents holding academic degrees. Again the percentage is lowest of all on the coast, at 15-16% in Mablethorpe and Sutton-on-Sea, but lower in the former than the latter, which shows that the phenomenon is not entirely correlated with age. But the graduate rate is under 25% in the inland urban MSOAs of Horncastle and Louth North & East as well. There are also a very small number of full time students anywhere in the constituency, which ranks 570th out of 575 in England and Wales on this score.
Where else does the exceptionally high level of Conservatism come from? Louth & Horncastle is nearly 98% white: one of the 30 highest figures in the country in 2021. It has very few social renters, just over 10%, and that concentrated mainly in a number of areas in Louth, around St Bernard’s Avenue (east Louth), Brackenborough Road (north east) and Welbeck Way and Badminton way (north west). But also to be considered are the issues that influence party preference. In the 2016 referendum, in the East Lindsey council area (a fair surrogate for this constituency) 70.7% voted to leave the EU, only 29.3% to Remain. In 2015 UKIP had finished second in the general election here with 10,778 votes. UKIP also won East Lindsey council seats that year, such as Mablethorpe, Marshchapel and Coningsby.
However it should not be assumed that the ‘Brexit’ vote transferred actually to the Conservatives, although in December 2019 much of it will have. In May 2023 for example, Labour won all three seats in Mablethorpe ward as well as the two single member Louth wards of Trinity (around its eastern St Bernard’s social housing estate) and North Holme (in the low-cost housing of north western Louth). In the 2017 Lincolnshire county council elections Labour won Louth South and Mablethorpe, though in 2021 the Conservatives regained the latter and an Independent took the former - closely followed by another Independent. Overall in May 2023 within Louth & Horncastle, on new boundaries, Independents took a plurality of votes, but the Conservatives led Labour by 34% to 22%.
This seat has an interesting history in two senses. There the variety of social and economic elements within its extensive acreage, such as the fine historic and well preserved centre of Louth, a little similar to Stamford, which is however at the other end of the county and much more on the beaten track: its magnificent spired (tallest parish church in England) St James’s church, the independent shops in the roads named ‘gates’, Westgate Fields and Hubbard’s Hills. Horncastle still has cobbled streets and thatched houses. Then there are the Victorian seaside resorts, though if they have any grandeur it is very much faded. In the south western corner of the seat is the small spa town of Woodhall Spa, with hotels to match but now more known for golf; it also has a strong connection with the RAF in World War Two, with its Dambusters memorial in Queen Square because it was the last wartime base of 617 squadron. There are many other less well known former aerodromes such as Kelstern, Spilsby and Manby – and still at Coningsby, which is also nearby the great brick castle at Tattershall. All of this gives the impression of a profound deeply entrenched Englishness, of tradition and conservatism, which might be typical of the heart of the country if it weren’t so much tucked away off the beaten track (there are no railways, never mind no motorways, in its very large area).
But Louth & Horncastle has another history too, of its members of Parliament. Louth was rather briefly Jeffrey Archer’s constituency. At the other end of the spectrum of longevity, if not of politics, Sir Peter Tapsell represented Horncastle, then East Lindsey, then Louth & Horncastle continuously for 49 years between 1966 and 2015. This was enough to become Father of the House – and he had previously served between 1959 and 1964 for Nottingham West, which does not count towards that honour. The current member Victoria Atkins was promoted Secretary of State for Health in November 2023. Her tenure of that role may not least very long. But it will not be a lack of loyalty of Louth & Horncastle to the Conservative party that will be responsible for that, as shown by its retention in July 2024 as one of a mere 121 seats in the Commons.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 30.5% 9/575
Owner occupied 71.0% 153/575
Private rented 18.4% 276/575
Social rented 10.6% 497/575
White 97.9% 16/575
Black 0.2% 551/575
Asian 0.7% 558/575
Managerial & professional 27.7% 425/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7% 147/575
Degree level 23.8% 516/575
No qualifications 22.3% 103/575
Students 3.8% 570/575
General Election 2024: Louth and Horncastle
Conservative Victoria Atkins 17,441 37.5 −35.0
Reform UK Sean Matthews 11,935 25.7 N/A
Labour Jonathan Slater 10,475 22.5 +4.8
Green Robert Watson 2,504 5.4 N/A
Liberal Democrats Ross Pepper 2,364 5.1 −2.7
Independent Paul Hugill 1,359 2.9 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Iconic Arty-Pole 309 0.7 −1.3
SDP Marcus Moorehouse 92 0.2 N/A
C Majority 5,506 11.8 −43.4
Turnout 46,479 60.6 −4.9
Registered electors 76,882
Conservative hold
Swing C to Reform 30.3
General Election 2019: Louth and Horncastle
Conservative Victoria Atkins 38,021 72.7 +8.8
Labour Ellie Green 9,153 17.5 -9.2
Liberal Democrats Ross Pepper 4,114 7.9 +4.1
Monster Raving Loony The Iconic Arty-Pole 1,044 2.0 +1.1
C Majority 28,868 55.2 +18.0
Turnout 52,332 65.5 -3.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Louth and Horncastle consists of
92.4% of Louth and Horncastle
2.7% of Gainsborough
0.6% of Boston & Skegness
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_026_Louth%20and%20Horncastle_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 36903 | 72.5% |
| Lab | 9020 | 17.7% |
| LD | 3966 | 7.8% |
| Loony | 1044 | 2.1% |
| Con Majority | 27833 | 54.7% |
