Post by Robert Waller on Dec 10, 2023 21:04:34 GMT
The Boundary Commission does not have a consistent policy with regard to the nomenclature of parliamentary constituencies. Very often these are decided after local inquiries taken by Assistant Commissioners who are barristers appointed to review the recommendations for a single county. These are independent operators who listen to a variety of opinion at the inquiry stage. Local communities like to be mentioned in the title of the division. Thus in the review which first came into effect at the 1997 general election, the Assistant Commissioner advised that the originally proposed seat of Mid Lincolnshire should be renamed Sleaford and North Hykeham. Many communities are not so lucky. Let us bear in mind that the following towns, many of which did have a seat named after them at one time, do not figure in current constituency titles after the reports if the various Boundary Commissions in 2023: Bodmin, Barnstaple, Totnes, Petersfield, Margate, Saffron Walden, Leominster, Kidderminster, Oswestry, Ilkeston, Belper, Accrington, Nelson and Colne, Chester-le-Street, Port Talbot, Pontypool, Greenock, St Andrews, Lisburn, Ballymena and Coleraine. This is just a selection. Yet Sleaford and North Hykeham survives the most recent process as a name, though with substantial boundary changes.
This is because the constituency, which had an electorate of 71,500 when it was first contested in 1997, and only merited minor exchanges with neighbouring seats in the review before the 2010 election, had expanded to no fewer than 94,761 in December 2019, the 6th highest in the United Kingdom apart from the anomalous Isle of Wight (and the second most of any other Conservative seat apart from Milton Keynes South). As a result, the Commission has decreed that 21.3% of the seat, around 20,000 voters, is placed in the Grantham & Bourne division (the name lengthened by the addition of another small community). The population expansion has occurred across the constituency. Sleaford has increased from just under 10,000 in 1991 to 18,000 in the 2021 census, with new housing particularly in the south western quadrant (Quarrington). North Hykeham, which had around 9,000 electors when the seat was first created, had 13,000 as listed in the Boundary Commission’s 2023 report, with growth particularly in the Mill area, by the Roman Fosse Way furthest away from the city of Lincoln; its total population has grown from 11,000 to 17,000 in the 21st century so far. Other ‘expanding villages’ include Washingborough and Heighington east of Lincoln (electorate up 70% since the end of the 20th century) and Ruskington near Sleaford.
The areas removed in the boundary changes are essentially the South Kesteven wards, mainly north of Grantham along the A1 towards Newark - such as Barrowby, Great Gonerby, Dry Doddington and the very affluent Long Bennington - which have also seen new housing growth, leaving the new, slimmed down Sleaford & North Hykeham entirely within the North Kesteven district (Kesteven was historically one of the three Parts of Lincolnshire along with Lindsey and Holland). This is logical, as the first two villages are really part of Greater Grantham, and the others are far better connected to Grantham (north-south) than to Sleaford (west-east). The more thinly populated country south of Sleaford is also removed, around Osbournby and Heckington; this is in the direction of Bourne, but not as close as the western removals are to Grantham; Sleaford & North Hykeham never got more than about half way between Sleaford and Bourne.
Politically, Sleaford & North Hykeham has been extremely Conservative, and in December 2019 due to its growth it produced the highest numerical majority of any Tory seat – 32,565 – although in percentage terms it is only the 16th safest. This would still have required a swing of 24.5% to the second placed party, Labour, to be lost. We do not yet have reliably calculated notional figures for the smaller version to be fought next time, but estimations suggest that although the notional majority may be down to a mere 24,000 or so, the seat will be nearly as safe for the Conservatives.
It is a little hard to be sure of recent preferences in the various parts of the seat, due to the presence in local elections of a group called the Lincolnshire Independents, who won 11 seats on North Kesteven council in the most recent contests in May 2023, taking most of the council spots in Sleaford town, for example, as well as several villages (even though they only managed 1,999 votes in the December 2019 general election). However the Tories did regain overall control of North Kesteven, making four net gains; which was very much against the trend of the 2023 results nationally. The only other party (as opposed to localist) to win any seats were Labour, who returned to the council for the first time since 2007 by making isolated gains in Sleaford Castle ward (by 5 votes) and one in the two member Hykeham Fosse (formerly Mill ward) - shared with a Conservative as Labour actually only put up one candidate. Castle covers the west-centre of the town, including the railway station and the small social housing estate around Queen Street, though not the main foci of ‘council housing', which are more in north eastern Sleaford off East Gate.
Overall, there is very little social housing in the constituency, scarcely more than 10%. The occupational class structure is close to the national average, with slightly more professional and managerial workers in the western half of Sleaford and in the villages, especially those near to Lincoln, and somewhat fewer in North Hykeham, especially its North MSOA, eastern Sleaford and the more rural villages. There are no high concentrations of either university graduates or those with no educational qualifications, and the seat is over 97% white. In sum, Sleaford & North Hykeham is a slice of middle England: a medium sized market town, some growing outer suburbia (of Lincoln now, the Grantham parts having been removed) and a variety of villages, from the commuter to the deeply rural. There is also some armed forces history in the shape of former RAF stations like Waddington and Swinderby, closed 1993 and now the site if the new-build and rather up-market village of Witham St Hughs – another cause of the population growth of Sleaford & North Hykeham. Cranwell, the Sandhurst or Dartmouth of the RAF, is still going strong, four miles west of Sleaford.
When this seat was created and named in the 1990s, it was hard to cavil at the recognition of Sleaford, an old market town which has long formed the centre of an extensive area of farming villages, and which was rapidly growing. However it really was a surprise that North Hykeham was so honoured. This is really a suburban area of Lincoln, straggling along the now bypassed, formerly A46, Fosse Way south of the cathedral city. It has grown substantially since, but retains the character not so much of an overgrown village as of a series of peripheral housing estates. If all such places were included, constituency titles would generally be very unwieldy, but this is a tendency that has only increased since the naming of this seat in 1997, so it is not so much of an outlier nowadays.
It is still something of an outlier in its safety for the Conservatives, though. The closest Sleaford & North Hykeham has ever been was in its very first contest, when Douglas Hogg, transferring from the Grantham division, beat Labour by just over 5,000 votes and just under 10% of the shares. In December 2016, even in a byelection defended by an incumbent government (six months before it lost its majority nationally) the Conservatives held it with a share of 53.5% with UKIP second with just 13.5%. Labour strengthened their runner up position in the 2024 general election, and the numerical majority was considerably cut because of a 19.5% anti-Conservative swing, as well as the hefty reduction in electorate - but didn't really get close to an actual change of hand, in one of the years of Labour’s greatest triumphs.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.2% 126/575
Owner occupied 74.2% 70/575
Private rented 15.8% 400/575
Social rented 10.1% 515/575
White 97.1% 64/575
Black 0.4% 488/575
Asian 1.0% 520/575
Managerial & professional 35.1% 249/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.7% 301/575
Degree level 29.8% 348/575
No qualifications 16.4% 357/575
Students 4.8% 162/575
General Election 2024: Sleaford and North Hykeham
Conservative Caroline Johnson 17,348 35.7 −30.8
Labour Hanif Khan 13,002 26.8 +8.2
Reform UK Ben Jackson 10,484 21.6 N/A
Lincolnshire Independent Robert Oates 3,032 6.2 +3.1
Green Martin Blake 2,435 5.0 +2.6
Liberal Democrats Matthew Winnington 2,264 4.7 −3.5
C Majority 4,346 8.9 −40.0
Turnout 48,565 64.1 −6.1
Registered electors 75,807
Conservative hold
Swing C to Lab 19.5
General Election 2019: Sleaford and North Hykeham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Caroline Johnson 44,683 67.1 +2.9
Labour Linda Edwards-Shea 12,118 18.2 -7.6
Liberal Democrats Olly Craven 5,355 8.0 +3.9
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton 1,999 3.0
Green Simon Tooke 1,742 2.6 +1.1
Independent Caroline Coram 657 1.0
C Majority 32,565 48.9 +10.5
2019 Electorate 94,761
Turnout 66,554 70.2 -2.2
Conservative hold
Swing 5.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Sleaford and North Hykeham consists of
78.7% Sleaford and North Hykeham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_042_Sleaford%20and%20North%20Hykeham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
This is because the constituency, which had an electorate of 71,500 when it was first contested in 1997, and only merited minor exchanges with neighbouring seats in the review before the 2010 election, had expanded to no fewer than 94,761 in December 2019, the 6th highest in the United Kingdom apart from the anomalous Isle of Wight (and the second most of any other Conservative seat apart from Milton Keynes South). As a result, the Commission has decreed that 21.3% of the seat, around 20,000 voters, is placed in the Grantham & Bourne division (the name lengthened by the addition of another small community). The population expansion has occurred across the constituency. Sleaford has increased from just under 10,000 in 1991 to 18,000 in the 2021 census, with new housing particularly in the south western quadrant (Quarrington). North Hykeham, which had around 9,000 electors when the seat was first created, had 13,000 as listed in the Boundary Commission’s 2023 report, with growth particularly in the Mill area, by the Roman Fosse Way furthest away from the city of Lincoln; its total population has grown from 11,000 to 17,000 in the 21st century so far. Other ‘expanding villages’ include Washingborough and Heighington east of Lincoln (electorate up 70% since the end of the 20th century) and Ruskington near Sleaford.
The areas removed in the boundary changes are essentially the South Kesteven wards, mainly north of Grantham along the A1 towards Newark - such as Barrowby, Great Gonerby, Dry Doddington and the very affluent Long Bennington - which have also seen new housing growth, leaving the new, slimmed down Sleaford & North Hykeham entirely within the North Kesteven district (Kesteven was historically one of the three Parts of Lincolnshire along with Lindsey and Holland). This is logical, as the first two villages are really part of Greater Grantham, and the others are far better connected to Grantham (north-south) than to Sleaford (west-east). The more thinly populated country south of Sleaford is also removed, around Osbournby and Heckington; this is in the direction of Bourne, but not as close as the western removals are to Grantham; Sleaford & North Hykeham never got more than about half way between Sleaford and Bourne.
Politically, Sleaford & North Hykeham has been extremely Conservative, and in December 2019 due to its growth it produced the highest numerical majority of any Tory seat – 32,565 – although in percentage terms it is only the 16th safest. This would still have required a swing of 24.5% to the second placed party, Labour, to be lost. We do not yet have reliably calculated notional figures for the smaller version to be fought next time, but estimations suggest that although the notional majority may be down to a mere 24,000 or so, the seat will be nearly as safe for the Conservatives.
It is a little hard to be sure of recent preferences in the various parts of the seat, due to the presence in local elections of a group called the Lincolnshire Independents, who won 11 seats on North Kesteven council in the most recent contests in May 2023, taking most of the council spots in Sleaford town, for example, as well as several villages (even though they only managed 1,999 votes in the December 2019 general election). However the Tories did regain overall control of North Kesteven, making four net gains; which was very much against the trend of the 2023 results nationally. The only other party (as opposed to localist) to win any seats were Labour, who returned to the council for the first time since 2007 by making isolated gains in Sleaford Castle ward (by 5 votes) and one in the two member Hykeham Fosse (formerly Mill ward) - shared with a Conservative as Labour actually only put up one candidate. Castle covers the west-centre of the town, including the railway station and the small social housing estate around Queen Street, though not the main foci of ‘council housing', which are more in north eastern Sleaford off East Gate.
Overall, there is very little social housing in the constituency, scarcely more than 10%. The occupational class structure is close to the national average, with slightly more professional and managerial workers in the western half of Sleaford and in the villages, especially those near to Lincoln, and somewhat fewer in North Hykeham, especially its North MSOA, eastern Sleaford and the more rural villages. There are no high concentrations of either university graduates or those with no educational qualifications, and the seat is over 97% white. In sum, Sleaford & North Hykeham is a slice of middle England: a medium sized market town, some growing outer suburbia (of Lincoln now, the Grantham parts having been removed) and a variety of villages, from the commuter to the deeply rural. There is also some armed forces history in the shape of former RAF stations like Waddington and Swinderby, closed 1993 and now the site if the new-build and rather up-market village of Witham St Hughs – another cause of the population growth of Sleaford & North Hykeham. Cranwell, the Sandhurst or Dartmouth of the RAF, is still going strong, four miles west of Sleaford.
When this seat was created and named in the 1990s, it was hard to cavil at the recognition of Sleaford, an old market town which has long formed the centre of an extensive area of farming villages, and which was rapidly growing. However it really was a surprise that North Hykeham was so honoured. This is really a suburban area of Lincoln, straggling along the now bypassed, formerly A46, Fosse Way south of the cathedral city. It has grown substantially since, but retains the character not so much of an overgrown village as of a series of peripheral housing estates. If all such places were included, constituency titles would generally be very unwieldy, but this is a tendency that has only increased since the naming of this seat in 1997, so it is not so much of an outlier nowadays.
It is still something of an outlier in its safety for the Conservatives, though. The closest Sleaford & North Hykeham has ever been was in its very first contest, when Douglas Hogg, transferring from the Grantham division, beat Labour by just over 5,000 votes and just under 10% of the shares. In December 2016, even in a byelection defended by an incumbent government (six months before it lost its majority nationally) the Conservatives held it with a share of 53.5% with UKIP second with just 13.5%. Labour strengthened their runner up position in the 2024 general election, and the numerical majority was considerably cut because of a 19.5% anti-Conservative swing, as well as the hefty reduction in electorate - but didn't really get close to an actual change of hand, in one of the years of Labour’s greatest triumphs.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.2% 126/575
Owner occupied 74.2% 70/575
Private rented 15.8% 400/575
Social rented 10.1% 515/575
White 97.1% 64/575
Black 0.4% 488/575
Asian 1.0% 520/575
Managerial & professional 35.1% 249/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.7% 301/575
Degree level 29.8% 348/575
No qualifications 16.4% 357/575
Students 4.8% 162/575
General Election 2024: Sleaford and North Hykeham
Conservative Caroline Johnson 17,348 35.7 −30.8
Labour Hanif Khan 13,002 26.8 +8.2
Reform UK Ben Jackson 10,484 21.6 N/A
Lincolnshire Independent Robert Oates 3,032 6.2 +3.1
Green Martin Blake 2,435 5.0 +2.6
Liberal Democrats Matthew Winnington 2,264 4.7 −3.5
C Majority 4,346 8.9 −40.0
Turnout 48,565 64.1 −6.1
Registered electors 75,807
Conservative hold
Swing C to Lab 19.5
General Election 2019: Sleaford and North Hykeham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Caroline Johnson 44,683 67.1 +2.9
Labour Linda Edwards-Shea 12,118 18.2 -7.6
Liberal Democrats Olly Craven 5,355 8.0 +3.9
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton 1,999 3.0
Green Simon Tooke 1,742 2.6 +1.1
Independent Caroline Coram 657 1.0
C Majority 32,565 48.9 +10.5
2019 Electorate 94,761
Turnout 66,554 70.2 -2.2
Conservative hold
Swing 5.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Sleaford and North Hykeham consists of
78.7% Sleaford and North Hykeham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_042_Sleaford%20and%20North%20Hykeham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 34258 | 66.5% |
| Lab | 9578 | 18.6% |
| LD | 4225 | 8.2% |
| Linc Ind | 1573 | 3.1% |
| Green | 1246 | 2.4% |
| Ind | 657 | 1.3% |
| Con Majority | 24680 | 47.9% |