Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2023 15:21:01 GMT
This is heavily based on the original profile by @peoplelikewe and is updated by me
The constituency of North Somerset lies immediately South West of Bristol and broadly covers the area between Bristol and Weston Super Mare. This constituency name was revived for the 2010 General Election but existed, albeit in a different guise, from 1885-1918 and 1950-1983. In the 27 year period when it didn’t exist, a broadly similar constituency called Woodspring, which was also the name of the now current unitary authority North Somerset, existed. Confusing much?
The constituency has three main towns that supply the majority of the population. The largest is Portishead ( population 27000) . Portishead is on the Severn Estuary and has grown substantially in the last 30 years and has a marina and a lot of new build housing and serves as a “dormitory town” for Bristol. Down the coast is the older Victorian Clevedon ( population 22000) which has a Victorian Pier and had a few known ITV Dramas filmed here such as “Broadchurch” and the not so popular “Sanditon” which barely anybody watched. The other large town is Nailsea ( population 15000) which unlike the other two is inland and is full of post war commuter estates and has a history of being a former industrial centre based on glass manufacture and coal mining.
The constituency is still quite geographically large as the three towns mentioned are rather dispersed. On the border of Bristol where the constituency begins, you have Long Ashton which again is another commuter village that does have a mix of owner-occupier and some social housing. The famous Ashton Court estate is in this ward, and is a popular tourism point and the home of the Bristol International Balloon fiesta and has been featured on the “Antiques Roadshow” television programme. Heading west, you've the villages of Abbots Leigh and Pill which make up the Pill ward on the local council. Abbots Leigh has a campus of The University of West of England within it's village, and Pill is a village with quite a lot of social housing managed by Alliance Homes. The now defunct Ham Green Hospital was a part of this area and is now the Penny Brohn Hospice. Neighbouring Pill to the west are Easton-in-Gordano, Portbury known for it's docks and now becoming a hub of industry and which borders the Shirehampton area of Bristol.
Heading southwards from Long Ashton, you have the commuter village of Backwell that has Backwell House that is a popular venue for weddings and is now a hotel. Buckland's Pool or Backwell Lake is another point of interest in the village and recently made the local press in 2018 due to a proposed house building scheme in the area. There is also Flax Bourton, Barrow Gurney to the east and Winford.
The constituency contains Bristol Airport which is based on the outskirts of Wrington village. The airport has been a hot topic lately due to it's proposed expansion, which has been met with opposition by the local council and many residents in the area. The expansion of the airport is a political issue here and has helped the Greens establish a local councillor base at that end of the constituency.
The constituency is a little oversized and had an electorate of over 80000 in 2019. The only boundary change here is the removal of 7000 voters in Yatton and its immediate surrounds into the cross local authority Wells and Mendip Hills constituency. This has a minimal political effect but will help Labour very slightly.
North Somerset is a fairly affluent constituency, with Pill ward being the only North Somerset ward that makes the top ten deprived wards in the local authority (the rest are mainly Weston-super-Mare wards). There's a high percentage of owner-occupiers ( 78.2%, the 18th most in England and Wales) in the constituency and most workers do commute to Bristol or Bath to work. It is in the top quartile of constituencies for professional/managerial workers. There is a farming industry, and Portbury Docks is starting to thrive with industries making homes in the area. Bristol Airport is a very popular employer in the constituency. Despite the commuter base, the seaside ( or estuary side) towns of Clevedon and Portishead are still popular with older people and the constituency ranks 65th in England and Wales for the percentage of people aged over 65.
It has always been a Conservative constituency and since 1992 Liam Fox has been the local MP. Dr Fox did pick up his highest majority in 2015 of 23,099.
Second position has alternated between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats did reduce Fox's majority in 2005 to 6,016 but since then as following the uniform pattern across most of the country, their vote has slipped away. In 2015 they fell to fourth place and in 2017 despite moving up a place to third, only picked up 9.6% of the vote. Labour have become the second placed party since 2015, helped by a split opposition vote in that election and then got their best share of the vote since the October 1974 election in 2017. They held on to second in the recent election in 2019.
As for minor parties performance, UKIP came third with 13% of the vote in 2015 helped by that split in the vote. The Independent councillor for Pill and now leader of North Somerset District Council Don Davies stood in 2017 and polled a respectable 6.3% no doubt helped by his local constituents and those unhappy with the mainstream parties. The Green party are a regular fixture in General Elections and have managed to have a steady vote share reaching a peak of 6.5% in 2015.
Locally, in the 2019 local elections the Conservatives did abysmally here, losing all but 1 ward in this constituency, many to Independents. This was set up due to the complacency of Conservative councillors and opposition to a lot of development in the area which has threatened small local businesses and priced locals out of the property market. Another reason behind their success was a lack of transparency from the old Conservative administration. Portishead Independents do control Portishead Town Council and do engage their electorate on a lot of view points.
In the 2023 local elections, the Conservatives actually bumped off the bottom here, winning 6 wards ( gaining 1 in Portishead, 1 in Nailsea and 3 in Clevedon.) The Greens have picked up several of the wards around Bristol airport. Labour won 1 ward each in Clevedon and Nailsea. Overall, councillors elected in the new constituency boundaries in 2023 were 6 Conservatives, 5 Greens, 4 Independents, 3 Portishead Independents, 2 Liberal Democrat’s and 2 Labour.
Liam Fox achieved a majority of 17.500 or 28.3% over Labour in 2019. The Conservatives will have led, but not overwhelmingly so, in each of the 3 main towns. Perhaps of slight concern to Fox is that his share declined slightly in that good overall year for the Conservatives. The boundary changes will reduce his actual majority and his notional majority slightly. Labour will need a swing of about 14% here, and it is probably at the very top end of their ambitions at present. Labour do however start in a much better position here than they did in advance of their last landslide win in 1997. Labour will almost certainly get their best result in this seat in its current recognisable format here in 2024 ( or 2025!).
The constituency of North Somerset lies immediately South West of Bristol and broadly covers the area between Bristol and Weston Super Mare. This constituency name was revived for the 2010 General Election but existed, albeit in a different guise, from 1885-1918 and 1950-1983. In the 27 year period when it didn’t exist, a broadly similar constituency called Woodspring, which was also the name of the now current unitary authority North Somerset, existed. Confusing much?
The constituency has three main towns that supply the majority of the population. The largest is Portishead ( population 27000) . Portishead is on the Severn Estuary and has grown substantially in the last 30 years and has a marina and a lot of new build housing and serves as a “dormitory town” for Bristol. Down the coast is the older Victorian Clevedon ( population 22000) which has a Victorian Pier and had a few known ITV Dramas filmed here such as “Broadchurch” and the not so popular “Sanditon” which barely anybody watched. The other large town is Nailsea ( population 15000) which unlike the other two is inland and is full of post war commuter estates and has a history of being a former industrial centre based on glass manufacture and coal mining.
The constituency is still quite geographically large as the three towns mentioned are rather dispersed. On the border of Bristol where the constituency begins, you have Long Ashton which again is another commuter village that does have a mix of owner-occupier and some social housing. The famous Ashton Court estate is in this ward, and is a popular tourism point and the home of the Bristol International Balloon fiesta and has been featured on the “Antiques Roadshow” television programme. Heading west, you've the villages of Abbots Leigh and Pill which make up the Pill ward on the local council. Abbots Leigh has a campus of The University of West of England within it's village, and Pill is a village with quite a lot of social housing managed by Alliance Homes. The now defunct Ham Green Hospital was a part of this area and is now the Penny Brohn Hospice. Neighbouring Pill to the west are Easton-in-Gordano, Portbury known for it's docks and now becoming a hub of industry and which borders the Shirehampton area of Bristol.
Heading southwards from Long Ashton, you have the commuter village of Backwell that has Backwell House that is a popular venue for weddings and is now a hotel. Buckland's Pool or Backwell Lake is another point of interest in the village and recently made the local press in 2018 due to a proposed house building scheme in the area. There is also Flax Bourton, Barrow Gurney to the east and Winford.
The constituency contains Bristol Airport which is based on the outskirts of Wrington village. The airport has been a hot topic lately due to it's proposed expansion, which has been met with opposition by the local council and many residents in the area. The expansion of the airport is a political issue here and has helped the Greens establish a local councillor base at that end of the constituency.
The constituency is a little oversized and had an electorate of over 80000 in 2019. The only boundary change here is the removal of 7000 voters in Yatton and its immediate surrounds into the cross local authority Wells and Mendip Hills constituency. This has a minimal political effect but will help Labour very slightly.
North Somerset is a fairly affluent constituency, with Pill ward being the only North Somerset ward that makes the top ten deprived wards in the local authority (the rest are mainly Weston-super-Mare wards). There's a high percentage of owner-occupiers ( 78.2%, the 18th most in England and Wales) in the constituency and most workers do commute to Bristol or Bath to work. It is in the top quartile of constituencies for professional/managerial workers. There is a farming industry, and Portbury Docks is starting to thrive with industries making homes in the area. Bristol Airport is a very popular employer in the constituency. Despite the commuter base, the seaside ( or estuary side) towns of Clevedon and Portishead are still popular with older people and the constituency ranks 65th in England and Wales for the percentage of people aged over 65.
It has always been a Conservative constituency and since 1992 Liam Fox has been the local MP. Dr Fox did pick up his highest majority in 2015 of 23,099.
Second position has alternated between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats did reduce Fox's majority in 2005 to 6,016 but since then as following the uniform pattern across most of the country, their vote has slipped away. In 2015 they fell to fourth place and in 2017 despite moving up a place to third, only picked up 9.6% of the vote. Labour have become the second placed party since 2015, helped by a split opposition vote in that election and then got their best share of the vote since the October 1974 election in 2017. They held on to second in the recent election in 2019.
As for minor parties performance, UKIP came third with 13% of the vote in 2015 helped by that split in the vote. The Independent councillor for Pill and now leader of North Somerset District Council Don Davies stood in 2017 and polled a respectable 6.3% no doubt helped by his local constituents and those unhappy with the mainstream parties. The Green party are a regular fixture in General Elections and have managed to have a steady vote share reaching a peak of 6.5% in 2015.
Locally, in the 2019 local elections the Conservatives did abysmally here, losing all but 1 ward in this constituency, many to Independents. This was set up due to the complacency of Conservative councillors and opposition to a lot of development in the area which has threatened small local businesses and priced locals out of the property market. Another reason behind their success was a lack of transparency from the old Conservative administration. Portishead Independents do control Portishead Town Council and do engage their electorate on a lot of view points.
In the 2023 local elections, the Conservatives actually bumped off the bottom here, winning 6 wards ( gaining 1 in Portishead, 1 in Nailsea and 3 in Clevedon.) The Greens have picked up several of the wards around Bristol airport. Labour won 1 ward each in Clevedon and Nailsea. Overall, councillors elected in the new constituency boundaries in 2023 were 6 Conservatives, 5 Greens, 4 Independents, 3 Portishead Independents, 2 Liberal Democrat’s and 2 Labour.
Liam Fox achieved a majority of 17.500 or 28.3% over Labour in 2019. The Conservatives will have led, but not overwhelmingly so, in each of the 3 main towns. Perhaps of slight concern to Fox is that his share declined slightly in that good overall year for the Conservatives. The boundary changes will reduce his actual majority and his notional majority slightly. Labour will need a swing of about 14% here, and it is probably at the very top end of their ambitions at present. Labour do however start in a much better position here than they did in advance of their last landslide win in 1997. Labour will almost certainly get their best result in this seat in its current recognisable format here in 2024 ( or 2025!).
