Post by Robert Waller on Dec 8, 2023 22:58:15 GMT
This constituency is historically part of Cheshire’s middle-class belt, south-west of Manchester and included in the Metropolitan Borough of Trafford since the local government reorganisation that took effect in 1974. Altrincham and Sale, however, are large enough towns to be more than dormitories. They have a life and character of their own, and can act as minor economic counter-attractions to Manchester. There is a very large industrial, business and retail park complex in the Broadheath area between Altrincham and Sale, and substantial outlets in central Altrincham like the Vue multi-cinema and the Stamford Quarter, which advertises itself as ‘the heart of a modern market town’. It has its own football history, with Altrincham FC punching above its weight even though it has always been a non-league club, with a long history of FA Cup giant killing and also launching the football investment career of Peter Swales, before he moved to become chairman of Manchester City. (Alty are now in the National League, not sure what happened to Man City ….).
They formed the basis of an Altrincham & Sale seat between 1945 and 1997, when the eastern three wards of Sale were joined with (very different) parts of the City of Manchester in an early example of a cross-borough constituency: Wythenshawe & Sale East. That seat has always been won by Labour (and never with a majority of less than the 7,575, or 18.5%, in 2010). However Altrincham and Sale was always held by the Conservatives, even in 1945 and 1966, and it has been the same story in its principal successor, even in 1997 and 2001 – though that may be about to change.
The Altrincham (pronounced Oltringham) section of the seat is often defined also to include the neighbourhood of Timperley and the ward of Broadheath. All this is not, in general, Rolls-Royce or stockbroker country as can be found in some of the smaller communities further out. But the seat also takes in Hale (east of Altrincham) and Bowdon (west), which, when last individually measured by the Census as local authority units before the mergers in the 1970s, were found to be two of the five highest-status small towns in the country: each reached a level of 69% non-manual workers way back in 1971. This figure was exceeded in England only by Harpenden and Chorleywood in Hertfordshire and by Formby in Shirley Williams’s one-time Crosby seat. As long ago as the 1991 Census it was revealed that over 49% of the households in Hale and Bowdon ward had at least two cars, the highest figure in the whole of Greater Manchester (pipping the desirable and exclusive Bramhall neighbourhood of Cheadle constituency). There really are millionaires in Hale, secluded in leafy private roads and luxury houses, especially out in Hale Barns.
In the most recent census details, from 2021, Trafford has the highest proportion of professional and managerial workers (42%) of any of the ten boroughs within Greater Manchester, the Altrincham & Sale West constituency has the highest prof/man figure in the whole of the North West of England (48%) - and the most extreme levels within both that seat and Trafford borough were in the MSOAs of Hale (59.4%), Bowdon (54.9%) and Altrincham West, Dunham & Warburton (53.7%). Hale’s figure is the highest anywhere in Greater Manchester except for Didsbury Village in Manchester Withington constituency. However Didsbury has far more professionals and Hale, Bowdon and Hale Barns have the most ‘managers, directors and senior officials’, more even than the next greatest Greater Manchester concentration in the Bramhall section of Stockport borough.
It need hardly be said that it is this part of Trafford borough that has been most consistently Tory in local government elections. Bowdon is the only ward that has voted for the Conservatives ever since the metropolitan borough was created, and Hale Barns & Timperley South has done so since it was drawn in 2004. Hale itself was reliably Tory from 1974 to 2021. Overall Trafford has been unusual in that it is a metropolitan borough that the Conservatives have frequently controlled: from 1974 through 1984, 1988-94, 2004-06, 2008-12, and 2015-16, It was the only metropolitan borough in England to remain under Conservative control after their disastrous May 1994 local elections, for example, and the long-term record is also due to this constituency. Besides the most affluent wards already mentioned,. Manor ward, between Broadheath and Sale town centre was usually won by Labour in its first thirty years, but has been held by the Tories every single time since 2004. Altrincham ward has only been won by Labour four times in fifty years.
Nevertheless, in local government terms things have been changing. Even in Hale, the Conservatives have lost to the Green party in 2022 and the all-out 2023 elections on somewhat redrawn ward boundaries. The Greens have also taken Altrincham ward solidly since 2018 and their slate of three polled over 60% there in May 2023, to the Conservatives 22%. Even in Bowdon the Greens were only about 5% behind in these most recent contests. Meanwhile Labour have won the Ashton upon Mersey ward, which essentially covers the western part of Sale, continuously from 2019 through May 2023. Broadheath has been more often than not Labour since 2012; in the all-out elections in 2023 Labour took the top two spots, a Conservative the third, by 21 votes. Turning to Timperley, it has been regarded as the Liberal Democrats’ stronghold within Altrincham & Sale West for decades, since the 1980s.There have been occasional Conservative victories in wards which have been variously named, such as Village, but the current Timperley Central and North elected full slates of Lib Dems in 2023 with shares all in the 50s %, with the Tories lagging in the 20s.
Overall, the May 2023 municipal votes add up to 34% Conservative, 24% Labour, 21% LD and 18% Green. However the parliamentary prospects for yet another Tory hold are not as good as that appears. For a start, tactical voting within the first past the post system is likely to help Labour. Despite their local election strength, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats only achieved 11% in the general election, and the Greens 3%. In the likely context of removing an unpopular and struggling Conservative government, Labour are clearly the main challengers. Secondly, Labour were only 11% behind in 2019, and if they are not benefiting from a swing of at least 6% they will be struggling to win the general election or come near to their long term opinion poll strength. Thirdly, the Tories will be without any incumbent appeal, as their long serving and senior MP, Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee and the MP here ever since Altrincham and Sale West was created in 1997, has announced his retirement after seven terms.
There are certainly parts of the country where Labour have been in difficulties in recent general elections, especially 2019, but in this constituency that has not been the case. In the 2016 referendum it is estimated to have voted ‘Remain’ by over 61%. The ‘Boris’ effect may have been successful last time in deprived northern towns, but Altrincham & Sale West comes more into the category of affluent suburb; and highly educated too. Overall Trafford has 43% with degrees, the highest of any metropolitan borough anywhere, and Altrincham & Sale West constituency has nearly 50%. This rises to 62% in Hale, 58% in Bowdon, 55% in Altrincham West (with the rural Dunham and Warburton), 53% in Altrincham East and 54% in Timperley South & Hale Barns. Only 11% of all adult residents have no educational qualifications. There is also an Asian presence – around 15% in the western Sale MSOAs and West Timperley, but it is highest in wealthy Hale Barns: over 23%. These are predominantly (17%) Muslim. While the Jewish proportion is small overall (2.1%) it does reach 19% in Hale Barns, and overall Altrincham & Sale West ranks 18th out of 575 constituencies in England and Wales for Jewish residents.
Although the character of this constituency has not become altogether similar to that of middle class parts of Manchester itself like Didsbury (and much of its city centre nowadays), or even the Heatons in Stockport, which are to be found in safe Labour seats, there are strong similarities with the Cheadle and Hazel Grove divisions, which have not been loyally Conservative and are likely not to be again after the 2024 election. This is not Prestbury or Alderley Edge or Wilmslow, all still administratively in Cheshire, which will all probably stay in a Tory seat in that general election. There seems a better than even chance that Labour will win an Altrincham and Sale seat for the first time ever.
There were no boundary changes in the 2023 review.
2021 Census
Aged 65+ 19.0% 293/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 61/575
Private rented 13.8% 486/575
Social rented 11.4% 459/575
White 80.5% 399/575
Black 1.6% 260/575
Asian 12.1% 129/575
Managerial & professional 48.1% 19/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.3% 536/575
Degree level 48.7% 40/575
No qualifications 11.5% 545/575
Students 6.2% 228/575
General Election 2019: Altrincham and Sale West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Graham Brady 26,311 48.0 -3.0
Labour Andrew Western 20,172 36.8 -2.0
Liberal Democrats Angela Smith 6,036 11.0 +3.3
Green Geraldine Coggins 1,566 2.9 +1.0
Liberal Neil Taylor 454 0.8 +0.2
Independent Iram Kiani 224 0.4
C Majority 6,139 11.2 -1.0
2019 electorate 73,096
Turnout 54,763 74.9 +2.8
Conservative hold
Swing 0.5 C to Lab
Boundary Changes and Notional Result
N/A
Altrincham and Sale West is unchanged
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_211_Altrincham%20and%20Sale%20West_Landscape.pdf
They formed the basis of an Altrincham & Sale seat between 1945 and 1997, when the eastern three wards of Sale were joined with (very different) parts of the City of Manchester in an early example of a cross-borough constituency: Wythenshawe & Sale East. That seat has always been won by Labour (and never with a majority of less than the 7,575, or 18.5%, in 2010). However Altrincham and Sale was always held by the Conservatives, even in 1945 and 1966, and it has been the same story in its principal successor, even in 1997 and 2001 – though that may be about to change.
The Altrincham (pronounced Oltringham) section of the seat is often defined also to include the neighbourhood of Timperley and the ward of Broadheath. All this is not, in general, Rolls-Royce or stockbroker country as can be found in some of the smaller communities further out. But the seat also takes in Hale (east of Altrincham) and Bowdon (west), which, when last individually measured by the Census as local authority units before the mergers in the 1970s, were found to be two of the five highest-status small towns in the country: each reached a level of 69% non-manual workers way back in 1971. This figure was exceeded in England only by Harpenden and Chorleywood in Hertfordshire and by Formby in Shirley Williams’s one-time Crosby seat. As long ago as the 1991 Census it was revealed that over 49% of the households in Hale and Bowdon ward had at least two cars, the highest figure in the whole of Greater Manchester (pipping the desirable and exclusive Bramhall neighbourhood of Cheadle constituency). There really are millionaires in Hale, secluded in leafy private roads and luxury houses, especially out in Hale Barns.
In the most recent census details, from 2021, Trafford has the highest proportion of professional and managerial workers (42%) of any of the ten boroughs within Greater Manchester, the Altrincham & Sale West constituency has the highest prof/man figure in the whole of the North West of England (48%) - and the most extreme levels within both that seat and Trafford borough were in the MSOAs of Hale (59.4%), Bowdon (54.9%) and Altrincham West, Dunham & Warburton (53.7%). Hale’s figure is the highest anywhere in Greater Manchester except for Didsbury Village in Manchester Withington constituency. However Didsbury has far more professionals and Hale, Bowdon and Hale Barns have the most ‘managers, directors and senior officials’, more even than the next greatest Greater Manchester concentration in the Bramhall section of Stockport borough.
It need hardly be said that it is this part of Trafford borough that has been most consistently Tory in local government elections. Bowdon is the only ward that has voted for the Conservatives ever since the metropolitan borough was created, and Hale Barns & Timperley South has done so since it was drawn in 2004. Hale itself was reliably Tory from 1974 to 2021. Overall Trafford has been unusual in that it is a metropolitan borough that the Conservatives have frequently controlled: from 1974 through 1984, 1988-94, 2004-06, 2008-12, and 2015-16, It was the only metropolitan borough in England to remain under Conservative control after their disastrous May 1994 local elections, for example, and the long-term record is also due to this constituency. Besides the most affluent wards already mentioned,. Manor ward, between Broadheath and Sale town centre was usually won by Labour in its first thirty years, but has been held by the Tories every single time since 2004. Altrincham ward has only been won by Labour four times in fifty years.
Nevertheless, in local government terms things have been changing. Even in Hale, the Conservatives have lost to the Green party in 2022 and the all-out 2023 elections on somewhat redrawn ward boundaries. The Greens have also taken Altrincham ward solidly since 2018 and their slate of three polled over 60% there in May 2023, to the Conservatives 22%. Even in Bowdon the Greens were only about 5% behind in these most recent contests. Meanwhile Labour have won the Ashton upon Mersey ward, which essentially covers the western part of Sale, continuously from 2019 through May 2023. Broadheath has been more often than not Labour since 2012; in the all-out elections in 2023 Labour took the top two spots, a Conservative the third, by 21 votes. Turning to Timperley, it has been regarded as the Liberal Democrats’ stronghold within Altrincham & Sale West for decades, since the 1980s.There have been occasional Conservative victories in wards which have been variously named, such as Village, but the current Timperley Central and North elected full slates of Lib Dems in 2023 with shares all in the 50s %, with the Tories lagging in the 20s.
Overall, the May 2023 municipal votes add up to 34% Conservative, 24% Labour, 21% LD and 18% Green. However the parliamentary prospects for yet another Tory hold are not as good as that appears. For a start, tactical voting within the first past the post system is likely to help Labour. Despite their local election strength, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats only achieved 11% in the general election, and the Greens 3%. In the likely context of removing an unpopular and struggling Conservative government, Labour are clearly the main challengers. Secondly, Labour were only 11% behind in 2019, and if they are not benefiting from a swing of at least 6% they will be struggling to win the general election or come near to their long term opinion poll strength. Thirdly, the Tories will be without any incumbent appeal, as their long serving and senior MP, Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee and the MP here ever since Altrincham and Sale West was created in 1997, has announced his retirement after seven terms.
There are certainly parts of the country where Labour have been in difficulties in recent general elections, especially 2019, but in this constituency that has not been the case. In the 2016 referendum it is estimated to have voted ‘Remain’ by over 61%. The ‘Boris’ effect may have been successful last time in deprived northern towns, but Altrincham & Sale West comes more into the category of affluent suburb; and highly educated too. Overall Trafford has 43% with degrees, the highest of any metropolitan borough anywhere, and Altrincham & Sale West constituency has nearly 50%. This rises to 62% in Hale, 58% in Bowdon, 55% in Altrincham West (with the rural Dunham and Warburton), 53% in Altrincham East and 54% in Timperley South & Hale Barns. Only 11% of all adult residents have no educational qualifications. There is also an Asian presence – around 15% in the western Sale MSOAs and West Timperley, but it is highest in wealthy Hale Barns: over 23%. These are predominantly (17%) Muslim. While the Jewish proportion is small overall (2.1%) it does reach 19% in Hale Barns, and overall Altrincham & Sale West ranks 18th out of 575 constituencies in England and Wales for Jewish residents.
Although the character of this constituency has not become altogether similar to that of middle class parts of Manchester itself like Didsbury (and much of its city centre nowadays), or even the Heatons in Stockport, which are to be found in safe Labour seats, there are strong similarities with the Cheadle and Hazel Grove divisions, which have not been loyally Conservative and are likely not to be again after the 2024 election. This is not Prestbury or Alderley Edge or Wilmslow, all still administratively in Cheshire, which will all probably stay in a Tory seat in that general election. There seems a better than even chance that Labour will win an Altrincham and Sale seat for the first time ever.
There were no boundary changes in the 2023 review.
2021 Census
Aged 65+ 19.0% 293/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 61/575
Private rented 13.8% 486/575
Social rented 11.4% 459/575
White 80.5% 399/575
Black 1.6% 260/575
Asian 12.1% 129/575
Managerial & professional 48.1% 19/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.3% 536/575
Degree level 48.7% 40/575
No qualifications 11.5% 545/575
Students 6.2% 228/575
General Election 2019: Altrincham and Sale West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Graham Brady 26,311 48.0 -3.0
Labour Andrew Western 20,172 36.8 -2.0
Liberal Democrats Angela Smith 6,036 11.0 +3.3
Green Geraldine Coggins 1,566 2.9 +1.0
Liberal Neil Taylor 454 0.8 +0.2
Independent Iram Kiani 224 0.4
C Majority 6,139 11.2 -1.0
2019 electorate 73,096
Turnout 54,763 74.9 +2.8
Conservative hold
Swing 0.5 C to Lab
Boundary Changes and Notional Result
N/A
Altrincham and Sale West is unchanged
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_211_Altrincham%20and%20Sale%20West_Landscape.pdf
