Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 6, 2023 19:18:21 GMT
Chelmsford is Essex’s county town, a cathedral city a major retail and service centre in Central Essex. It is now the third largest town in Essex after its fellow cities of Southend and Colchester.
There is some industrial heritage – it was the home of Marconi’s first wireless factory, though this is now closed. Mostly though it is a middle-class dormitory town with strong road and rail links to London and a large commuter element. In general, it is a prosperous and pleasant town.
There has been a parliamentary constituency based on Chelmsford since 1885 and for most of that time it has been a safe Conservative seat – most but not all. It survived the great Liberal landslide of 1906 but then fell to that party in 1923 – the only time the Liberals have won here to date. Then twice in 1945 (at a by-election and the subsequent general election) it elected the Common Wealth Party candidate Ernest Millington. Millington subsequently joined the Labour party like most from the Common Wealth Party but was defeated in 1950 and Labour have not come close since.
The Liberals have come close, however. Having been third in 1970, the Liberals increased their vote massively in February 1974 and at all subsequent elections up to 1983 inclusive. In all these elections the Liberal candidate was Stuart Mole and in 1983 he fell just 378 votes short of defeating the then former cabinet minister Norman St John Stevas, who had represented the seat since 1964.
On his retirement in 1987 a new candidate, Simon Burns, comfortably saw off Stuart Mole’s final challenge and subsequently the Lib Dem threat receded – Burns went on to represent the area for the next 30 years.
As Chelmsford has continued to grow, the boundaries of the seat have contracted. It used to cover a vast area of Central Essex but is now more or less paired down to the urban core. From 1997 to 2010 it was split, with part of the town included in a ‘Maldon & Chelmsford East’ seat and the remainder in ‘Chelmsford West’. The former only included the suburb of Great Baddow however with all the core of Chelmsford itself being in the latter seat, so Chelmsford West was both the clear successor to the previous Chelmsford seat and the predecessor of the current seat.
The seat now consists of Chelmsford proper together with the parishes of Great Baddow and Springfield which are eastern suburbs of the town - the slightly more detached Galleywood to the south is removed in the latest boundary changes.
When a single Chelmsford seat was recreated for the 2010 election, the Lib Dems offered a credible challenge, coming again within 10% of winning, but they dropped to fourth behind Labour and UKIP in 2015 and remained far behind Labour in 2017. In 2019 they recovered a clear second place but remained a long way behind the Conservatives (now represented by Vicky Ford).
It is easy to see why the Lib Dems might enjoy some strength here. Chelmsford is a middle-class Home Counties commuter base and a Cathedral city. In many ways it is like St Albans or Guildford, both of which have been won by the Lib Dems in this century. On the other hand, it is in Essex which has generally been a poor sub-region for the party in recent years and one of the best for the Conservatives. Crucially – and in contrast to those other two cities – it voted to Leave the EU in 2016, albeit narrowly.
The Lib Dems have continued to maintain a local government presence in the area at both the county and district level. They controlled the local council for much of the 1980s and 1990s and do so again now having made sweeping gains in 2019. They won every seat in Chelmsford itself and in Great Baddow and all bar one in Springfield. The only ward within the existing constituency in which they did not top the poll was Galleywood. Overall, the wards within the new constituency boundaries elected 31 Lib Dems and 1 Conservatives (the remaining wards of Chelmsford district elected 20 Conservatives, 5 Independents/Residents and no Lib Dems). In 2023 the Conservatives doubled their representation to 2, picking up a seat in Patching Hall ward.
Neither party enjoys any massive strongholds in the town though – the Conservatives had topped the poll in every ward in 2015. Labour’s strength, such as it is, is rather more concentrated – in the more working class, ex-industrial and council estate terrain the Northwest of the town – the wards of Marconi, St Andrews and Waterhouse Farm. Even so they have not won any seats here since 2011.
Chelmsford continues to grow, and the seat is now oversized. It will be brought back into quota by removing the Galleywood ward to the Maldon seat (this being the only boundary change affecting either seat). Galleywood was the only ward not to elect Lib Dem councillors in 2019 and 2023 so what remains will be even better for them than the current seat, but the number of voters is not large and overall, the effect will be minimal.
It is likely that the Lib Dems remain the main challenger here and this is now their best prospect in Essex following their demise in Colchester. This is probably not saying too much though even now and with Labour looking set for a big swing in their direction they might well move back into second place. Most likely the Conservatives will hold on with a much reduced vote share against a divided opposition, but if they really are heading for a meltdown of greater proportions than 1997, this seat could spring some kind of surprise.
There is some industrial heritage – it was the home of Marconi’s first wireless factory, though this is now closed. Mostly though it is a middle-class dormitory town with strong road and rail links to London and a large commuter element. In general, it is a prosperous and pleasant town.
There has been a parliamentary constituency based on Chelmsford since 1885 and for most of that time it has been a safe Conservative seat – most but not all. It survived the great Liberal landslide of 1906 but then fell to that party in 1923 – the only time the Liberals have won here to date. Then twice in 1945 (at a by-election and the subsequent general election) it elected the Common Wealth Party candidate Ernest Millington. Millington subsequently joined the Labour party like most from the Common Wealth Party but was defeated in 1950 and Labour have not come close since.
The Liberals have come close, however. Having been third in 1970, the Liberals increased their vote massively in February 1974 and at all subsequent elections up to 1983 inclusive. In all these elections the Liberal candidate was Stuart Mole and in 1983 he fell just 378 votes short of defeating the then former cabinet minister Norman St John Stevas, who had represented the seat since 1964.
On his retirement in 1987 a new candidate, Simon Burns, comfortably saw off Stuart Mole’s final challenge and subsequently the Lib Dem threat receded – Burns went on to represent the area for the next 30 years.
As Chelmsford has continued to grow, the boundaries of the seat have contracted. It used to cover a vast area of Central Essex but is now more or less paired down to the urban core. From 1997 to 2010 it was split, with part of the town included in a ‘Maldon & Chelmsford East’ seat and the remainder in ‘Chelmsford West’. The former only included the suburb of Great Baddow however with all the core of Chelmsford itself being in the latter seat, so Chelmsford West was both the clear successor to the previous Chelmsford seat and the predecessor of the current seat.
The seat now consists of Chelmsford proper together with the parishes of Great Baddow and Springfield which are eastern suburbs of the town - the slightly more detached Galleywood to the south is removed in the latest boundary changes.
When a single Chelmsford seat was recreated for the 2010 election, the Lib Dems offered a credible challenge, coming again within 10% of winning, but they dropped to fourth behind Labour and UKIP in 2015 and remained far behind Labour in 2017. In 2019 they recovered a clear second place but remained a long way behind the Conservatives (now represented by Vicky Ford).
It is easy to see why the Lib Dems might enjoy some strength here. Chelmsford is a middle-class Home Counties commuter base and a Cathedral city. In many ways it is like St Albans or Guildford, both of which have been won by the Lib Dems in this century. On the other hand, it is in Essex which has generally been a poor sub-region for the party in recent years and one of the best for the Conservatives. Crucially – and in contrast to those other two cities – it voted to Leave the EU in 2016, albeit narrowly.
The Lib Dems have continued to maintain a local government presence in the area at both the county and district level. They controlled the local council for much of the 1980s and 1990s and do so again now having made sweeping gains in 2019. They won every seat in Chelmsford itself and in Great Baddow and all bar one in Springfield. The only ward within the existing constituency in which they did not top the poll was Galleywood. Overall, the wards within the new constituency boundaries elected 31 Lib Dems and 1 Conservatives (the remaining wards of Chelmsford district elected 20 Conservatives, 5 Independents/Residents and no Lib Dems). In 2023 the Conservatives doubled their representation to 2, picking up a seat in Patching Hall ward.
Neither party enjoys any massive strongholds in the town though – the Conservatives had topped the poll in every ward in 2015. Labour’s strength, such as it is, is rather more concentrated – in the more working class, ex-industrial and council estate terrain the Northwest of the town – the wards of Marconi, St Andrews and Waterhouse Farm. Even so they have not won any seats here since 2011.
Chelmsford continues to grow, and the seat is now oversized. It will be brought back into quota by removing the Galleywood ward to the Maldon seat (this being the only boundary change affecting either seat). Galleywood was the only ward not to elect Lib Dem councillors in 2019 and 2023 so what remains will be even better for them than the current seat, but the number of voters is not large and overall, the effect will be minimal.
It is likely that the Lib Dems remain the main challenger here and this is now their best prospect in Essex following their demise in Colchester. This is probably not saying too much though even now and with Labour looking set for a big swing in their direction they might well move back into second place. Most likely the Conservatives will hold on with a much reduced vote share against a divided opposition, but if they really are heading for a meltdown of greater proportions than 1997, this seat could spring some kind of surprise.
