Post by Robert Waller on Dec 4, 2023 18:16:21 GMT
This profile is heavily based on the excellent work of peterski, who was invited to update if he wished, with extra material by myself.
Darlington, in the historic county of Durham, is a very socially mixed constituency tightly drawn around the eponymous town of approximately 100,000 residents. The nearby villages of Hurworth, Neasham, Middleton St George and Sadberge have been up to and including 2019 in the Darlington Borough but in the neighbouring constituency of Sedgefield. In the minor 2023 boundary changes these areas have still not been placed in Darlington but rather mostly in Stockton West, but the Heighington ward has been moved to join this seat; it still elected a Conservative even in their poor set of local elections in May 2023. The result will be approximately to double the physical size of the Darlington constituency (see the map at bottom of this post) but to make it only slightly harder for Labour to regain.
As befitting a town with a fairly average population it has been a tight marginal for much of its history. Initially upon creation in 1868 it was won by the Liberal party before falling to a succession of members of the Quaker industrialist Pease family between 1895 and the by-election victory by Labour in 1926. From 1931 to 1945 it reverted to the Tories. Predictably it fell to Labour in the 1945 landslide but was won back in 1951 and held until the defeat of the Tory government in 1964. Labour became entrenched under the stewardship of the popular Ted Fletcher but never secured large majorities and after his death and subsequent by-election his successor Ossie O'Brien only lasted 11 weeks before being swept away in the 1983 Thatcher landslide by the slick and polished Michael Fallon. Fallon's tenure was relatively high profile but many northern towns swung hard against the Conservatives in 1992 and he was expelled by the Sunderland shipyard campaigner Alan Milburn (Fallon was later to emerge as MP for the safe Tory redoubt of Sevenoaks).
Milburn became a visible presence in the Blair government serving most notably as Health Secretary and Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and after the blowout victory of 1997 which saw a majority of 16,000 his position was never seriously threatened but upon his retirement in 2010 Darlington once again took its place as a key marginal as Jenny Chapman snuck in by a comparatively slim 3,000 votes. Similar margins of victory ensued in 2015 and, against expectations, in 2017 but the Tory tide rose too high even for the widely liked and respected Chapman in 2019, seeing the election of North Yorkshire Solicitor Peter Gibson .
The bedrock of Gibson's support is in the leafy south west of town , where the wards of Mowden, Hummersknott and Park West vote Tory even in bad years for the party, although in recent times the more central College ward has betrayed its youthful trendiness by electing Green councillors. Labour rules in the mean terraces of central and north Darlington which have a smallish but growing BAME community (Central Darlington & Pierremont MSOA was 9% Asian in the 2021 census). Labour would also usually rely on the support of outer ring social housing estates like Skerne Park, Firth Moor, Red Hall, Branksome Park and other smaller estates scattered around the north and east of Darlington but in 2019 it seems likely these areas saw heavy swings to the Conservatives. Similarly swinging the Tories' way will have been mixed neighbourhoods like Harrowgate Hill, Cockerton and Haughton Le-Skerne.
Economically speaking Darlington has been struggling with de-industrialisation for longer than most places even in the North-East, as most of the Railway Locomotive and Wagon works for which it became famous (indeed the Stockton and Darlington railway is considered to be the first public line operated by Locomotive transport in the world) closed in the 1960's. Subsequent decades were no kinder, as under the economic devastation of the Thatcher years even large employers like Paton and Baldwin yarn spinners shut their doors. Heavy engineering works suffered consistent closures, Darlington Forge company, BSA foundries, Summerson's Foundry, Skerne Wire Mills, Rise Carr Rolling Mills amongst many others all vanishing until the present day we find a mere handful of manufacturing companies still operating. Pre-eminent among these are a major Diesel Engine plant owned by American multi-national Cummins Inc., the Cleveland Bridge company (famous for the Tyne Bridge and Sydney Harbour Bridge no less) a shrunken HQ of the Whessoe Engineering group and a glorious survivor of the Railway age, Henry Williamson and Co. who produce castings for the rail industry from their historic base in the old industrial community of Albert Hill.
As a market town and retail centre Darlington has also seen far better days. The once massive markets are a shadow of their former self, as is the Binns department store, forever threatened with closure but currently limping on under the House of Fraser banner under the control of Sports Direct's Mike Ashley. The void has, to an extent. being filled by administrative and customer service centres for the Students Loan Company and EE mobile telecommunications and thriving warehousing depots for Argos, Aldi and most recently Amazon but well paid and high status occupations are in very short supply, which does keep house prices exceedingly low outside the leafy West End (terraces in respectable condition can be bought for £60,000; reasonable 3 bedroom semi's in mixed neighbourhoods for £120,000).
In summary it seems likely that Darlington will remain a key marginal in the near future and being very mixed in character but reasonably stable in population means any major demographic changes are doubtful at least for the next 10-20 years.
The immediate political climate is favourable for the Labour party, though, given that national opinion polls and recent election results have raised expectations that go far beyond the recovery of a marginal they have usually held within the past sixty years. In the most recent council elections in May 2023 they re-took control after a four year hiatus; previously they had held an overall majority from the 1991 through the 2015 elections. Labour made four gains in 2023, one each in Bank Top & Lascelles ward (completing their set of three there), Stephenson (completing their set of two there), Eastbourne (now having one out of three) and two out of the three in Brinkburn & Faverdale. As this implies, Labour’s progress was steady rather than stunning. Indeed the Greens moved forward in 2023 further, taking all three in Harrowgate Hill (two from Conservative, one from Labour) and now have seven in all, as they retained the other Darlington town ward of College and gained Hummersknott from the Tories. The Conservatives only held three wards in Darlington itself: Park West on the southern edge, Whinfield in the north-eastern corner, and the most solid of all, Mowden in the heart of west Darlington. Overall, though, the Tories did poll slightly more than Labour within the new Darlington boundaries, 36% to 33%, though the 20% that the Greens took at local election level is probably more likely to break towards Labour at the next general election.
Darlington’s demographic characteristics as revealed by the details of the 2021 Census suggest that Labour should be able to win the Westminster seat next time as long as they are at parity with the Conservatives nationally (unlike 2019), never mind having a substantial lead. They seat has higher private and social rented housing proportions than average, and, more clearly, is decidedly working class in its occupational profile; indeed it is one of little more than 100 constituencies that still have more in routine and semi-routine jobs than professional and managerial. Looking at its internal map, this is most striking in the eastern and central MSOAs of Darlington town, like Firthmoor (outer south east) where the routine/semi-routine totals are 37% to 18% prof/man, Bank Top (inner south east) 37% to 19%, and Albert Hill & Red Hall (east) 35% to 20%. Compare for example College & Park West (over 50% professional and managerial) and Hummersknott (45%) and it is clear that Darlington’s very distinctive west-east divide still exists in socio-economic terms.
Labour’s advance in local elections in 2023 may not be compelling, but the Darlington parliamentary constituency, even with unhelpful if minor boundary changes, should still be a Labour seat if the two largest parties are nationally even, and should be a relatively straightforward gain if Labour are significantly ahead. The 56.2% vote for Leave in the 2016 referendum should now play a much less significant part in the result, and it is likely to return to the party it favoured from 1964 to 1983 and 1992 to 2019 – and it should not be forgotten that Darlington is set in a region that has a long and strong tradition that has not generally favoured the Tories in most circumstances. Yes, in many ways it is a classic marginal – but marginal are usually won by the party on the up, and that definitely does not look like the Conservatives in the immediately foreseeable future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.0% 249/575
Owner occupied 61.3% 382/575
Private rented 21.5% 170/575
Social rented 17.2% 218/575
White 94.1% 217/575
Black 0.7% 399/575
Asian 2.9% 345/575
Managerial & professional 28.5% 398/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.2% 102/575
Degree level 28.0% 396/575
No qualifications 19.9% 198/575
Students 5.3% 328/575
General Election 2019: Darlington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Peter Gibson 20,901 48.1 +4.8
Labour Jenny Chapman 17,607 40.5 –10.1
Liberal Democrats Anne-Marie Curry 2,097 4.8 +2.5
Brexit Party Dave Mawson 1,544 3.5 N/A
Green Matthew Snedker 1,057 2.4 +1.2
Independent Monty Brack 292 0.7 N/A
C Majority 3,294 7.6
2019 electorate 66,395
Turnout 43,579 65.6 −2.0
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Darlington consists of
100% of Darlington
5.8% of Sedgefield
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_189_Darlington_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Darlington, in the historic county of Durham, is a very socially mixed constituency tightly drawn around the eponymous town of approximately 100,000 residents. The nearby villages of Hurworth, Neasham, Middleton St George and Sadberge have been up to and including 2019 in the Darlington Borough but in the neighbouring constituency of Sedgefield. In the minor 2023 boundary changes these areas have still not been placed in Darlington but rather mostly in Stockton West, but the Heighington ward has been moved to join this seat; it still elected a Conservative even in their poor set of local elections in May 2023. The result will be approximately to double the physical size of the Darlington constituency (see the map at bottom of this post) but to make it only slightly harder for Labour to regain.
As befitting a town with a fairly average population it has been a tight marginal for much of its history. Initially upon creation in 1868 it was won by the Liberal party before falling to a succession of members of the Quaker industrialist Pease family between 1895 and the by-election victory by Labour in 1926. From 1931 to 1945 it reverted to the Tories. Predictably it fell to Labour in the 1945 landslide but was won back in 1951 and held until the defeat of the Tory government in 1964. Labour became entrenched under the stewardship of the popular Ted Fletcher but never secured large majorities and after his death and subsequent by-election his successor Ossie O'Brien only lasted 11 weeks before being swept away in the 1983 Thatcher landslide by the slick and polished Michael Fallon. Fallon's tenure was relatively high profile but many northern towns swung hard against the Conservatives in 1992 and he was expelled by the Sunderland shipyard campaigner Alan Milburn (Fallon was later to emerge as MP for the safe Tory redoubt of Sevenoaks).
Milburn became a visible presence in the Blair government serving most notably as Health Secretary and Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and after the blowout victory of 1997 which saw a majority of 16,000 his position was never seriously threatened but upon his retirement in 2010 Darlington once again took its place as a key marginal as Jenny Chapman snuck in by a comparatively slim 3,000 votes. Similar margins of victory ensued in 2015 and, against expectations, in 2017 but the Tory tide rose too high even for the widely liked and respected Chapman in 2019, seeing the election of North Yorkshire Solicitor Peter Gibson .
The bedrock of Gibson's support is in the leafy south west of town , where the wards of Mowden, Hummersknott and Park West vote Tory even in bad years for the party, although in recent times the more central College ward has betrayed its youthful trendiness by electing Green councillors. Labour rules in the mean terraces of central and north Darlington which have a smallish but growing BAME community (Central Darlington & Pierremont MSOA was 9% Asian in the 2021 census). Labour would also usually rely on the support of outer ring social housing estates like Skerne Park, Firth Moor, Red Hall, Branksome Park and other smaller estates scattered around the north and east of Darlington but in 2019 it seems likely these areas saw heavy swings to the Conservatives. Similarly swinging the Tories' way will have been mixed neighbourhoods like Harrowgate Hill, Cockerton and Haughton Le-Skerne.
Economically speaking Darlington has been struggling with de-industrialisation for longer than most places even in the North-East, as most of the Railway Locomotive and Wagon works for which it became famous (indeed the Stockton and Darlington railway is considered to be the first public line operated by Locomotive transport in the world) closed in the 1960's. Subsequent decades were no kinder, as under the economic devastation of the Thatcher years even large employers like Paton and Baldwin yarn spinners shut their doors. Heavy engineering works suffered consistent closures, Darlington Forge company, BSA foundries, Summerson's Foundry, Skerne Wire Mills, Rise Carr Rolling Mills amongst many others all vanishing until the present day we find a mere handful of manufacturing companies still operating. Pre-eminent among these are a major Diesel Engine plant owned by American multi-national Cummins Inc., the Cleveland Bridge company (famous for the Tyne Bridge and Sydney Harbour Bridge no less) a shrunken HQ of the Whessoe Engineering group and a glorious survivor of the Railway age, Henry Williamson and Co. who produce castings for the rail industry from their historic base in the old industrial community of Albert Hill.
As a market town and retail centre Darlington has also seen far better days. The once massive markets are a shadow of their former self, as is the Binns department store, forever threatened with closure but currently limping on under the House of Fraser banner under the control of Sports Direct's Mike Ashley. The void has, to an extent. being filled by administrative and customer service centres for the Students Loan Company and EE mobile telecommunications and thriving warehousing depots for Argos, Aldi and most recently Amazon but well paid and high status occupations are in very short supply, which does keep house prices exceedingly low outside the leafy West End (terraces in respectable condition can be bought for £60,000; reasonable 3 bedroom semi's in mixed neighbourhoods for £120,000).
In summary it seems likely that Darlington will remain a key marginal in the near future and being very mixed in character but reasonably stable in population means any major demographic changes are doubtful at least for the next 10-20 years.
The immediate political climate is favourable for the Labour party, though, given that national opinion polls and recent election results have raised expectations that go far beyond the recovery of a marginal they have usually held within the past sixty years. In the most recent council elections in May 2023 they re-took control after a four year hiatus; previously they had held an overall majority from the 1991 through the 2015 elections. Labour made four gains in 2023, one each in Bank Top & Lascelles ward (completing their set of three there), Stephenson (completing their set of two there), Eastbourne (now having one out of three) and two out of the three in Brinkburn & Faverdale. As this implies, Labour’s progress was steady rather than stunning. Indeed the Greens moved forward in 2023 further, taking all three in Harrowgate Hill (two from Conservative, one from Labour) and now have seven in all, as they retained the other Darlington town ward of College and gained Hummersknott from the Tories. The Conservatives only held three wards in Darlington itself: Park West on the southern edge, Whinfield in the north-eastern corner, and the most solid of all, Mowden in the heart of west Darlington. Overall, though, the Tories did poll slightly more than Labour within the new Darlington boundaries, 36% to 33%, though the 20% that the Greens took at local election level is probably more likely to break towards Labour at the next general election.
Darlington’s demographic characteristics as revealed by the details of the 2021 Census suggest that Labour should be able to win the Westminster seat next time as long as they are at parity with the Conservatives nationally (unlike 2019), never mind having a substantial lead. They seat has higher private and social rented housing proportions than average, and, more clearly, is decidedly working class in its occupational profile; indeed it is one of little more than 100 constituencies that still have more in routine and semi-routine jobs than professional and managerial. Looking at its internal map, this is most striking in the eastern and central MSOAs of Darlington town, like Firthmoor (outer south east) where the routine/semi-routine totals are 37% to 18% prof/man, Bank Top (inner south east) 37% to 19%, and Albert Hill & Red Hall (east) 35% to 20%. Compare for example College & Park West (over 50% professional and managerial) and Hummersknott (45%) and it is clear that Darlington’s very distinctive west-east divide still exists in socio-economic terms.
Labour’s advance in local elections in 2023 may not be compelling, but the Darlington parliamentary constituency, even with unhelpful if minor boundary changes, should still be a Labour seat if the two largest parties are nationally even, and should be a relatively straightforward gain if Labour are significantly ahead. The 56.2% vote for Leave in the 2016 referendum should now play a much less significant part in the result, and it is likely to return to the party it favoured from 1964 to 1983 and 1992 to 2019 – and it should not be forgotten that Darlington is set in a region that has a long and strong tradition that has not generally favoured the Tories in most circumstances. Yes, in many ways it is a classic marginal – but marginal are usually won by the party on the up, and that definitely does not look like the Conservatives in the immediately foreseeable future.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.0% 249/575
Owner occupied 61.3% 382/575
Private rented 21.5% 170/575
Social rented 17.2% 218/575
White 94.1% 217/575
Black 0.7% 399/575
Asian 2.9% 345/575
Managerial & professional 28.5% 398/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.2% 102/575
Degree level 28.0% 396/575
No qualifications 19.9% 198/575
Students 5.3% 328/575
General Election 2019: Darlington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Peter Gibson 20,901 48.1 +4.8
Labour Jenny Chapman 17,607 40.5 –10.1
Liberal Democrats Anne-Marie Curry 2,097 4.8 +2.5
Brexit Party Dave Mawson 1,544 3.5 N/A
Green Matthew Snedker 1,057 2.4 +1.2
Independent Monty Brack 292 0.7 N/A
C Majority 3,294 7.6
2019 electorate 66,395
Turnout 43,579 65.6 −2.0
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Darlington consists of
100% of Darlington
5.8% of Sedgefield
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_189_Darlington_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 22994 | 49.7% |
| Lab | 18026 | 38.9% |
| LD | 2139 | 4.6% |
| Brexit | 1684 | 3.6% |
| Green | 1166 | 2.5% |
| Oth | 292 | 0.6% |
| Majority | 4968 | 10.7% |