Post by Robert Waller on Dec 3, 2023 22:47:24 GMT
This profile is heavily based on the excellent work of jacoblamsden, who was invited to update if he wished, with extra material by myself.
The good burghers of Royal Tunbridge Wells tend to consider themselves a cut above their neighbours in Tonbridge, a much smaller town just up the A26. As a result, it is little wonder they long resented not just having to cohabit with Tonbridge in a single parliamentary constituency, but having to do so in a constituency named Tonbridge, with no mention of the royal town at all. But ever since a separate Tunbridge Wells division was created in 1974, the boundaries have been broadly similar, encompassing the vast majority of the Borough of Tunbridge Wells apart from the rural eastern edge surrounding Cranbrook and Sissinghurst. This area has few connections with central Tunbridge Wells and has quite sensibly been in a constituency with Maidstone since 1997. It is one of the relatively few constituencies that are completely unaltered in the long delayed Boundary Commission review finalised and enacted in 2023.
The constituency is dominated by Tunbridge Wells town itself. Whilst most large towns and cities may be best known for a famous landmark or local resident, Tunbridge Wells is perhaps the only place best known for a state of mind. ‘Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells’ is a term used for a person, usually with strongly conservative political views, who writes letters to newspapers or the BBC in a tone of moral outrage. The phrase was allegedly popularised by the editor of a local newspaper, the Tunbridge Wells Advertiser, who, alarmed from a lack of letters from readers, insisted his staff write a few to fill space, signing them simply ‘Disgusted, Tunbridge Wells’. Tunbridge Wells’ stuffy reputation even features in E.M. Forster’s A Room with a View, with Charlotte Bartlett commenting ‘I am used to Tunbridge Wells, where we are all hopelessly behind the times’. Today though, any image of Tunbridge Wells as a bastion of small-c conservatism is itself, a bit behind the times. The town today is very much a part of the London commuter belt and it has the social and political characteristics to match. While it clearly votes Conservative nationally, with Greg Clark’s majority over 14,000, the Liberal Democrats surged into a strong second place in 2019, primarily because Tunbridge Wells voted narrowly to remain in the EU referendum, the only district in Kent to do so. However, there is one institution many think is outdated and unfashionable that Tunbridge Wells residents will go all out to defend – grammar schools. The main reason why the town is as desirable place to live now as when it was a fashionable Georgian resort town is the quality of its schools, with three top-performing grammar schools located along the St John’s Road. These act as a magnet for families desperate to skimp on private school fees and undoubtedly make the town more Conservative than if it had a comprehensive system.
As with many similar towns, traditional areas of party strength counted for little in a political climate dominated by Brexit. The Conservatives used to do best in the most opulent areas of Tunbridge Wells – Hungershall Park, Warwick Park, Culverden and Molyneux, as well as the outlying villages. Labour had a foothold in the surprisingly large number of working-class districts, in particular the old brick-making centre of High Brooms and the peripheral council estates of Sherwood, Showfields and Ramslye. The Lib Dems were strong in the more middle-of-the-road parts of town, particularly around St James’ and St John’s. More mixed was the only other sizable settlement in the constituency, Paddock Wood, a town known as a hotspot for ‘white flighters’ leaving south London. Reflective of how social class is a much weaker indicator of vote choice than ever before, the Conservatives now do about equally well in all areas of the constituency, with Labour still having some residual support in the working-class districts and the Lib Dems surging in the more remain areas around the town centre.
The local elections though are a different kettle of fish. While the Conservatives looked unassailable until a few years ago, they suddenly lost their way after supporting a development which would have seen a new theatre and council offices built in the grounds of historic Calverley Park. They have struggled to win a council seat since, losing almost all but a handful of rural wards to a mixture of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Independent and ‘Tunbridge Wells Alliance’ councillors. Even though the ‘Calverley Square’ project is now dead, the Conservatives were almost inevitably going to lose control of the council as the opposition parties finally found a way to win in Tunbridge Wells – being more conservative than the Conservatives.
This did indeed happened in May 2021 (Tunbridge Wells council elects by thirds, so there are contests most Mays, although not in every year in some of the more rural wards), when the Tories lost five seats net and were reduced to 23 (having had 41 out of 48 as recently as 2018). In the next set in May 2022 the Liberal Democrats became the largest party with 16 to 14 for the Conservatives, and for the first time one of their councillors, Ben Chapelard (their 2019 parliamentary candidate), became borough council leader. They increased that gap to 17-11 in May 2023, though did not come near to overall control themselves because by now Independents in the shape of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance had built up to 12 seats themselves, forming part of the controlling group with Chapelard’s LDs and Labour, who returned seven councillors.
That year the Conservatives only managed to win two of the 12 wards contested, and only one of these is actually in this constituency – Hawkhurst & Sandhurst. The Tunbridge Wells Alliance proved they could win both in rural wards like the hilly, wealden Pembury, Goudhurst & Lamberhurst and (in the west of the constituency) Speldhurst & Bilborough as well as in Tunbridge Wells itself at Park and St James’. Labour won three more working class urban wards, gaining Rusthall (in the west of the town) and retaining Sherwood and Southborough & High Brooms (in its outer north eastern quadrant).The Lib Dems, like the Alliance, won five wards, gaining Paddock Wood West and holding Southborough North and the three Tunbridge Wells wards of St John’s and the central Culverden and Pantiles & St Mark’s. Overall the 2023 voting in the constituency adds up to 28% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat, 17% Labour – and 18% TWA.
It has been remarked that most of the demographic figures from the 2021 census for the Tunbridge Wells seat as a whole are pretty much in the middle of the England and Wales rankings, except that it is in the top 100 constituencies for its residents’ employment in professional and managerial occupations and education to at least degree level. However there are, as ever, internal distinctions. Though social rented housing is slightly below average, it reaches 39% in High Brooms & Sherwood MSOA and 32% in Ramslye & Rusthall, which are at opposite sides of Tunbridge Wells (north east and south west respectively). The private rented sector is at its highest in Central Tunbridge Wells (47.4%). In that MSOA 10% of the population in 2021 were Asian, the other concentration being in Southborough East & Longfield Road (8.5%). While the professional and managerial proportion is high overall, it peaks at over 55% in Tunbridge Wells South MSOA, particularly in the OA around Warwick Park (62%) near the Nevill cricket ground - this is in Pantiles & St Mark’s ward. But it is well below the seat average of 43% in Paddock Wood, as well as the social housing areas of Tunbridge Wells. Similarly the proportion of university graduates is at its highest in the South and West (such as Bayne Park) areas of Tunbridge Wells at well over 50%, but around 20% have no educational qualifications in High Brooms & Sherwood, Ramslye & Rusthall, and Paddock Wood. Like all constituencies Tunbridge Wells is something of a complex mosaic when analysed at small-area level.
The strongest challengers will probably be the Liberal Democrats; even though Ben Chapelard, the council leader, will not contest the parliamentary seat next time (that will be Mark Martin), the LD leadership of the local borough council may be a double edged sword for the party – in case the voters of Tunbridge Wells are Disgusted with local as well as national government.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 19.0% 292/575
Owner occupied 66.0% 289/575
Private rented 19.6% 227/575
Social rented 14.4% 313/575
White 91.2% 274/575
Black 1.0% 325/575
Asian 4.2% 291/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 65/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.7% 465/575
Degree level 41.5% 95/575
No qualifications 13.4% 493/575
Students 5.1% 389/575
General Election 2019: Tunbridge Wells
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Greg Clark 30,119 55.1 -1.8
Liberal Democrats Ben Chapelard 15,474 28.3 +18.4
Labour Antonio Weiss 8,098 14.8 -11.7
Independent Christopher Camp 488 0.9
Independent Nigel Peacock 471 0.9
C Majority 14,645 26.8 -3.6
2019 electorate 74,816
Turnout 54,650 73.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 10.1 C to LD
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A:
Tunbridge Wells: unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_366_Tunbridge%20Wells_Landscape.pdf
The good burghers of Royal Tunbridge Wells tend to consider themselves a cut above their neighbours in Tonbridge, a much smaller town just up the A26. As a result, it is little wonder they long resented not just having to cohabit with Tonbridge in a single parliamentary constituency, but having to do so in a constituency named Tonbridge, with no mention of the royal town at all. But ever since a separate Tunbridge Wells division was created in 1974, the boundaries have been broadly similar, encompassing the vast majority of the Borough of Tunbridge Wells apart from the rural eastern edge surrounding Cranbrook and Sissinghurst. This area has few connections with central Tunbridge Wells and has quite sensibly been in a constituency with Maidstone since 1997. It is one of the relatively few constituencies that are completely unaltered in the long delayed Boundary Commission review finalised and enacted in 2023.
The constituency is dominated by Tunbridge Wells town itself. Whilst most large towns and cities may be best known for a famous landmark or local resident, Tunbridge Wells is perhaps the only place best known for a state of mind. ‘Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells’ is a term used for a person, usually with strongly conservative political views, who writes letters to newspapers or the BBC in a tone of moral outrage. The phrase was allegedly popularised by the editor of a local newspaper, the Tunbridge Wells Advertiser, who, alarmed from a lack of letters from readers, insisted his staff write a few to fill space, signing them simply ‘Disgusted, Tunbridge Wells’. Tunbridge Wells’ stuffy reputation even features in E.M. Forster’s A Room with a View, with Charlotte Bartlett commenting ‘I am used to Tunbridge Wells, where we are all hopelessly behind the times’. Today though, any image of Tunbridge Wells as a bastion of small-c conservatism is itself, a bit behind the times. The town today is very much a part of the London commuter belt and it has the social and political characteristics to match. While it clearly votes Conservative nationally, with Greg Clark’s majority over 14,000, the Liberal Democrats surged into a strong second place in 2019, primarily because Tunbridge Wells voted narrowly to remain in the EU referendum, the only district in Kent to do so. However, there is one institution many think is outdated and unfashionable that Tunbridge Wells residents will go all out to defend – grammar schools. The main reason why the town is as desirable place to live now as when it was a fashionable Georgian resort town is the quality of its schools, with three top-performing grammar schools located along the St John’s Road. These act as a magnet for families desperate to skimp on private school fees and undoubtedly make the town more Conservative than if it had a comprehensive system.
As with many similar towns, traditional areas of party strength counted for little in a political climate dominated by Brexit. The Conservatives used to do best in the most opulent areas of Tunbridge Wells – Hungershall Park, Warwick Park, Culverden and Molyneux, as well as the outlying villages. Labour had a foothold in the surprisingly large number of working-class districts, in particular the old brick-making centre of High Brooms and the peripheral council estates of Sherwood, Showfields and Ramslye. The Lib Dems were strong in the more middle-of-the-road parts of town, particularly around St James’ and St John’s. More mixed was the only other sizable settlement in the constituency, Paddock Wood, a town known as a hotspot for ‘white flighters’ leaving south London. Reflective of how social class is a much weaker indicator of vote choice than ever before, the Conservatives now do about equally well in all areas of the constituency, with Labour still having some residual support in the working-class districts and the Lib Dems surging in the more remain areas around the town centre.
The local elections though are a different kettle of fish. While the Conservatives looked unassailable until a few years ago, they suddenly lost their way after supporting a development which would have seen a new theatre and council offices built in the grounds of historic Calverley Park. They have struggled to win a council seat since, losing almost all but a handful of rural wards to a mixture of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Independent and ‘Tunbridge Wells Alliance’ councillors. Even though the ‘Calverley Square’ project is now dead, the Conservatives were almost inevitably going to lose control of the council as the opposition parties finally found a way to win in Tunbridge Wells – being more conservative than the Conservatives.
This did indeed happened in May 2021 (Tunbridge Wells council elects by thirds, so there are contests most Mays, although not in every year in some of the more rural wards), when the Tories lost five seats net and were reduced to 23 (having had 41 out of 48 as recently as 2018). In the next set in May 2022 the Liberal Democrats became the largest party with 16 to 14 for the Conservatives, and for the first time one of their councillors, Ben Chapelard (their 2019 parliamentary candidate), became borough council leader. They increased that gap to 17-11 in May 2023, though did not come near to overall control themselves because by now Independents in the shape of the Tunbridge Wells Alliance had built up to 12 seats themselves, forming part of the controlling group with Chapelard’s LDs and Labour, who returned seven councillors.
That year the Conservatives only managed to win two of the 12 wards contested, and only one of these is actually in this constituency – Hawkhurst & Sandhurst. The Tunbridge Wells Alliance proved they could win both in rural wards like the hilly, wealden Pembury, Goudhurst & Lamberhurst and (in the west of the constituency) Speldhurst & Bilborough as well as in Tunbridge Wells itself at Park and St James’. Labour won three more working class urban wards, gaining Rusthall (in the west of the town) and retaining Sherwood and Southborough & High Brooms (in its outer north eastern quadrant).The Lib Dems, like the Alliance, won five wards, gaining Paddock Wood West and holding Southborough North and the three Tunbridge Wells wards of St John’s and the central Culverden and Pantiles & St Mark’s. Overall the 2023 voting in the constituency adds up to 28% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat, 17% Labour – and 18% TWA.
It has been remarked that most of the demographic figures from the 2021 census for the Tunbridge Wells seat as a whole are pretty much in the middle of the England and Wales rankings, except that it is in the top 100 constituencies for its residents’ employment in professional and managerial occupations and education to at least degree level. However there are, as ever, internal distinctions. Though social rented housing is slightly below average, it reaches 39% in High Brooms & Sherwood MSOA and 32% in Ramslye & Rusthall, which are at opposite sides of Tunbridge Wells (north east and south west respectively). The private rented sector is at its highest in Central Tunbridge Wells (47.4%). In that MSOA 10% of the population in 2021 were Asian, the other concentration being in Southborough East & Longfield Road (8.5%). While the professional and managerial proportion is high overall, it peaks at over 55% in Tunbridge Wells South MSOA, particularly in the OA around Warwick Park (62%) near the Nevill cricket ground - this is in Pantiles & St Mark’s ward. But it is well below the seat average of 43% in Paddock Wood, as well as the social housing areas of Tunbridge Wells. Similarly the proportion of university graduates is at its highest in the South and West (such as Bayne Park) areas of Tunbridge Wells at well over 50%, but around 20% have no educational qualifications in High Brooms & Sherwood, Ramslye & Rusthall, and Paddock Wood. Like all constituencies Tunbridge Wells is something of a complex mosaic when analysed at small-area level.
The strongest challengers will probably be the Liberal Democrats; even though Ben Chapelard, the council leader, will not contest the parliamentary seat next time (that will be Mark Martin), the LD leadership of the local borough council may be a double edged sword for the party – in case the voters of Tunbridge Wells are Disgusted with local as well as national government.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 19.0% 292/575
Owner occupied 66.0% 289/575
Private rented 19.6% 227/575
Social rented 14.4% 313/575
White 91.2% 274/575
Black 1.0% 325/575
Asian 4.2% 291/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 65/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.7% 465/575
Degree level 41.5% 95/575
No qualifications 13.4% 493/575
Students 5.1% 389/575
General Election 2019: Tunbridge Wells
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Greg Clark 30,119 55.1 -1.8
Liberal Democrats Ben Chapelard 15,474 28.3 +18.4
Labour Antonio Weiss 8,098 14.8 -11.7
Independent Christopher Camp 488 0.9
Independent Nigel Peacock 471 0.9
C Majority 14,645 26.8 -3.6
2019 electorate 74,816
Turnout 54,650 73.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 10.1 C to LD
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A:
Tunbridge Wells: unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_366_Tunbridge%20Wells_Landscape.pdf
