Post by therealriga on Dec 3, 2023 19:01:01 GMT
East Antrim was one of the new constituencies created when Northern Ireland’s representation was increased for the 1983 general election, though an earlier incarnation had existed from 1885 to 1922. Since 1983 it has been a safe Unionist seat, though with a significant vote for the centrist Alliance Party.
The constituency is a mix of urban, rural and suburban territory. It begins at Monkstown, on the fringes of North Belfast, just 7 miles from Belfast City Hall, then covers a large section of the Antrim Coast, ending in the Glens of Antrim near Cushendun, a 50-mile drive from Belfast. The southern end consists of Belfast commuter territory, often upmarket. The area in the north includes some very scenic territory, contains numerous caravan parks and is a popular destination for local holidaymakers. The major towns are Carrickfergus and Larne, the second being one of the region’s main ports and a place with an important role in Ulster Loyalist history. In 1914 Loyalists smuggled a large quantity of weapons through the port to resist Home Rule by armed forced if necessary. Much of South-East Antrim still retains its Loyalist character over a century later.
When created for the 1983 election, around two thirds of the constituency came from North Antrim, with the remainder coming from South Antrim. The constituency originally consisted of the whole of Carrickfergus and Larne districts, plus nine wards of Newtownabbey, consisting of Cloughfern, Monkstown, Rostulla and the Whiteabbey and Rathcoole areas. For the 1997 election, it gained Jordanstown ward from South Antrim but lost the six Rathcoole/Whiteabbey wards to Belfast North. Before the 2010 election the constituency had an electorate below the average. The Boundary Commission originally suggested adding half of Moyle council, including Ballycastle and Rathlin and renaming the constituency “Antrim Coast & Glens.” Following local enquiries, the changes made were more modest. The constituency retained its name and lost Cloughfern ward to Belfast North, while gaining 3 Moyle wards in the mostly Nationalist Glens of Antrim area, despite protests from residents that these looked more to Ballycastle than to Carrickfergus or Jordanstown.
The most recent changes increased the Catholic percentage by 4%, but it remains low. In the 2011 census, 20.4% of the population had a Catholic community background, the fifth lowest figure in NI. Figures in the towns across the constituency included: Carrickfergus (6.6%), Cushendall (85.6%), Greenisland (9%) Larne (22.4%) and Whitehead (14%). The age profile was higher than most other NI seats, with an average age of 39.0 years making it the 4th oldest. The area saw little immigration, with the percentage born outside the UK and Ireland under 3% in both Larne and Carrick and less than that in other settlements.
Socio-economically, the constituency is better off than the NI average. Owner occupancy rates in Larne were around the regional average, while those in Carrick and Greenisland were 5-6% higher, with higher rates still in Jordanstown and Rostulla. The unemployment rate was the 5th lowest, with the highest figures found in the Sunnylands and Northlands wards of Carrickfergus and Larne’s Central ward, though all of these were below 7%. In the 2017 Multiple Deprivation Measure of NI’s 462 wards, three were in the richest ten: Jordanstown (4th), Greenisland (6th) and Rostulla (8th). In common with most mainly Protestant constituencies in NI, East Antrim voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum, by 55.2%.
With most of the constituency having come from Ian Paisley’s North Antrim constituency, it was expected that the DUP would win it in 1983. However, the UUP managed a surprise, with their candidate Roy Beggs beating DUP candidate Jim Allister (a future MEP and TUV leader) by 367 votes. DUP prospects were halted by the Unionist pact in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement, so the main challenge came from Alliance, who took 26% in 1987. The DUP reappeared in 1992 but Nigel Dodds, the future North Belfast MP, finished 7,422 votes behind Beggs.
In the 1996 regional elections to the NI forum, DUP hopes were raised when they finished only 500 votes behind the UUP, but Beggs maintained a healthy lead of more than 6,000 votes over the Alliance Party in 1997, with the DUP in third.
However, Unionist discontent following the 1998 Good Friday Agreement allowed the DUP to gain ground and in 2001 their candidate, former Belfast Lord Mayor Sammy Wilson, secured a large swing to cut Begg’s majority to just 128 votes. In 2005, Wilson won comfortably, with a majority of over 7,000. He repeated this majority in 2010 and 2015 and, with the UUP falling away, increased his majority to nearly 16,000 at the 2017 election. However, in 2019, as elsewhere Alliance managed a large increase, nearly doubling their vote to finish 6,706 votes behind Wilson. While the DUP also lost ground to Alliance in the 2022 Assembly elections, they still remained 6.5% ahead.
Some help may come for Alliance in the boundary changes. The undersized East Antrim shed a little of the Glens area but gained 3 wards east of Ballymena, including the mostly Catholic Glenravel ward. Alliance must aim for tactical votes from the latter areas to have a chance, but the DUP remain favourites.
The constituency is a mix of urban, rural and suburban territory. It begins at Monkstown, on the fringes of North Belfast, just 7 miles from Belfast City Hall, then covers a large section of the Antrim Coast, ending in the Glens of Antrim near Cushendun, a 50-mile drive from Belfast. The southern end consists of Belfast commuter territory, often upmarket. The area in the north includes some very scenic territory, contains numerous caravan parks and is a popular destination for local holidaymakers. The major towns are Carrickfergus and Larne, the second being one of the region’s main ports and a place with an important role in Ulster Loyalist history. In 1914 Loyalists smuggled a large quantity of weapons through the port to resist Home Rule by armed forced if necessary. Much of South-East Antrim still retains its Loyalist character over a century later.
When created for the 1983 election, around two thirds of the constituency came from North Antrim, with the remainder coming from South Antrim. The constituency originally consisted of the whole of Carrickfergus and Larne districts, plus nine wards of Newtownabbey, consisting of Cloughfern, Monkstown, Rostulla and the Whiteabbey and Rathcoole areas. For the 1997 election, it gained Jordanstown ward from South Antrim but lost the six Rathcoole/Whiteabbey wards to Belfast North. Before the 2010 election the constituency had an electorate below the average. The Boundary Commission originally suggested adding half of Moyle council, including Ballycastle and Rathlin and renaming the constituency “Antrim Coast & Glens.” Following local enquiries, the changes made were more modest. The constituency retained its name and lost Cloughfern ward to Belfast North, while gaining 3 Moyle wards in the mostly Nationalist Glens of Antrim area, despite protests from residents that these looked more to Ballycastle than to Carrickfergus or Jordanstown.
The most recent changes increased the Catholic percentage by 4%, but it remains low. In the 2011 census, 20.4% of the population had a Catholic community background, the fifth lowest figure in NI. Figures in the towns across the constituency included: Carrickfergus (6.6%), Cushendall (85.6%), Greenisland (9%) Larne (22.4%) and Whitehead (14%). The age profile was higher than most other NI seats, with an average age of 39.0 years making it the 4th oldest. The area saw little immigration, with the percentage born outside the UK and Ireland under 3% in both Larne and Carrick and less than that in other settlements.
Socio-economically, the constituency is better off than the NI average. Owner occupancy rates in Larne were around the regional average, while those in Carrick and Greenisland were 5-6% higher, with higher rates still in Jordanstown and Rostulla. The unemployment rate was the 5th lowest, with the highest figures found in the Sunnylands and Northlands wards of Carrickfergus and Larne’s Central ward, though all of these were below 7%. In the 2017 Multiple Deprivation Measure of NI’s 462 wards, three were in the richest ten: Jordanstown (4th), Greenisland (6th) and Rostulla (8th). In common with most mainly Protestant constituencies in NI, East Antrim voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum, by 55.2%.
With most of the constituency having come from Ian Paisley’s North Antrim constituency, it was expected that the DUP would win it in 1983. However, the UUP managed a surprise, with their candidate Roy Beggs beating DUP candidate Jim Allister (a future MEP and TUV leader) by 367 votes. DUP prospects were halted by the Unionist pact in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement, so the main challenge came from Alliance, who took 26% in 1987. The DUP reappeared in 1992 but Nigel Dodds, the future North Belfast MP, finished 7,422 votes behind Beggs.
In the 1996 regional elections to the NI forum, DUP hopes were raised when they finished only 500 votes behind the UUP, but Beggs maintained a healthy lead of more than 6,000 votes over the Alliance Party in 1997, with the DUP in third.
However, Unionist discontent following the 1998 Good Friday Agreement allowed the DUP to gain ground and in 2001 their candidate, former Belfast Lord Mayor Sammy Wilson, secured a large swing to cut Begg’s majority to just 128 votes. In 2005, Wilson won comfortably, with a majority of over 7,000. He repeated this majority in 2010 and 2015 and, with the UUP falling away, increased his majority to nearly 16,000 at the 2017 election. However, in 2019, as elsewhere Alliance managed a large increase, nearly doubling their vote to finish 6,706 votes behind Wilson. While the DUP also lost ground to Alliance in the 2022 Assembly elections, they still remained 6.5% ahead.
Some help may come for Alliance in the boundary changes. The undersized East Antrim shed a little of the Glens area but gained 3 wards east of Ballymena, including the mostly Catholic Glenravel ward. Alliance must aim for tactical votes from the latter areas to have a chance, but the DUP remain favourites.
