Post by Robert Waller on Dec 2, 2023 13:25:40 GMT
This is almost entirely based on the previous profile by ntyuk1707, due to its comprehensive nature and its quality, with some minor updates and additions by myself
Glenrothes has been one of four constituencies in Fife located predominantly in the south-east of the county, following the courses of the Rivers Ore and Leven from Cardenden and Glenrothes in the west towards their meeting point outside of Methil and then on to the Firth of Forth between Leven and Methil in the east. The seat also covers coastal communities of Fife south-west of Methil and towards the outskirts of Kirkcaldy. The boundary changes confirmed in 2023 remove more the SNP leaning areas of Windygates, Leven and Kennoway from the seat to join North East Fife. In exchange they add in, from Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, more ex-mining communities where Labour are competitive to the west including Kelty, Lochgelly and Ballingry - home to Britain's last Communist Councillor who retired in 2017, slightly improving Labour's chances overall in this constituency, which is renamed Glenrothes & Mid Fife to reflect the increased presence of that last mentioned section clustered around Loch Ore.
The coastal section of this constituency incorporates Methil, Buckhaven, and (‘Coaltown of’) Wemyss. These former mining communities collectively make up around 40% of the seat's electorate and represent some of Scotland's most deprived areas, with most parts of Methil being amongst the 5% most deprived parts of Scotland. The towns and villages which sit closely together in this area are almost entirely made up of deprived ex-council estates and tenements.
Accompanying Labour's initial breakthrough in the 1910 UK general elections, this area was solidly supportive of the Labour Party from 1910 until the SNP's Scotland-wide breakthrough over 100 years later in the 2011 Scottish election, from which point onwards it has voted SNP. In the 1990 local elections, the SNP made a breakthrough in Kennoway and Windygates - a ward which they gained in that election and have held in elections since, but now excluded from the new Glenrothes & Mid Fife - with the other wards sticking with Labour until switching to the SNP in 2012.
The deprived, disenfranchised demographic of this area was prime territory for the pro-independence Yes campaign in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, with an approximate 54% Yes vote, however it also likely had a higher Leave vote in the 2016 EU membership referendum, perhaps even being the only part of Fife to have voted to Leave the EU.
North-west of here sits the new town of Glenrothes. Of the four Fife constituencies, the neighbouring North East Fife seat to the east is significantly more rural, remote, affluent and touristic in nature, having more in common with rural parts of Perth and Kinross in its demography than the more urban, industrious and working-class southern Fife. And Glenrothes does feel in many respects like the edge of the industrial Scottish Central Belt, as driving beyond the town on the A916 feels like entering a completely different part of Scotland - elderly, rural, affluent: very much out-on-a-limb from the rest of Fife.
Glenrothes was designated as a coal-mining new town in 1948, with its population growing substantially from the early 1950s. It is the dominant section of this constituency and home to around 50% of electors.
As you might expect the town is predominantly made up of areas of mid-high deprivation, with patches of wealth in some areas. The town's Macedonia and Tanshall areas were the home of the SNP's first councillor in Fife, which the party gained in 1978 but lost in 1990, only to gain nearby Rimbleton, Fingassie and Leslie areas in the west of the town in 1994. In the 2007 Scottish election, the party topped the poll across the town for the first time, allowing them to gain Fife Central constituency in the Scottish Parliament and hold the reconfigured Glenrothes and Mid-Fife Scottish Parliament seat from 2011 onwards.
West of Glenrothes are yet more ex-mining villages including Cardenden, Dundonald, Bowhill and Kinglassie which were marginally contested between Labour and the SNP at 2022's local elections, being Labour's strongest part of the constituency and the SNP's weakest. Unlike the rest of the constituency, these areas are estimated to have marginally rejected Scottish independence in 2014.
Glenrothes constituency as a whole is estimated to have voted Yes to Scottish independence in the 2014 independence referendum by an approximate margin of 53% Yes 47% No, in contrast to a wider 55% No across Fife, and 63% No vote in neighbouring North East Fife. It was estimated to have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland in the 2016 EU membership referendum with a 48% Leave vote and 52% Remain vote, with coastal areas likely having voted to Leave the EU.
The Labour Party form the main opposition to the SNP in this seat, with the Conservatives doing better in some affluent suburbs on the outskirts of northern Glenrothes.
In its modern history like most of Scotland, Glenrothes constituency was a reliable seat for Labour until 2015, and has since voted SNP, who won the seat with a majority of 11,757 votes in 2019 - marking it as one of the SNP's safest seats in Scotland.
The pro-independence and more SNP-leaning tendencies of this seat compared to others in the Central Belt makes it a tough nut to crack for Labour, but given the seat's stronger history for the SNP and the general tendency for Scottish new towns to be better for the SNP than elsewhere, if Labour won this seat they would be in for many gains across the Central Belt of Scotland and would likely need to come in first place in Scotland ahead of the SNP.
It is possible, given much improved polling figures and results in local and Westminster byelections for Labour in Scotland lately and on the basis of the 2017 general election that Glenrothes & Mid Fife will be the only SNP seat standing in the historical 'Kingdom of Fife', with Labour forming a strong challenge to the SNP in Dunfermline & Dollar and Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy and the Liberal Democrats holding North East Fife. Peter Grant announced in June 2023 that he would not be standing again, and has been replaced as SNP candidate by John Beare, who finished top of the poll in the STV election for the council ward of Glenrothes North, Leslie & Markinch in 2022. The Nationalists perhaps can certainly rest a bit easier than in more vulnerable Westminster seats in Fife, but should be mindful not take this constituency for granted or rest too easy!
May 2022 Fife Council election results for wards wholly within Glenrothes & Mid Fife constituency
First preferences
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
SNP 49.5%
Labour 32.5
C 11.6
LD 3.8
Ind 2.6
Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch
SNP 44.6
Lab 26.4
C 18.6
LD 5.1
Green 3.6
Scottish Family 1.7
Glenrothes Central and Thornton
SNP 48.7
Lab 27.9
C 12.1
LD 3.9
G 3.7
Alba 2.2
Scottish F 1.5
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
SNP 47.4
Lab 40.2
C 6.5
LD 2.3
G 2.2
Alba 1.3
Lochgelly, Cardenden and Bennarty (added for Glenrothes & Mid Fife)
Lab 43.6
SNP 43.2
C 7.7
G 2.2
LD 1.8
Scottish F 1.5
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.0% 301/650
Owner-occupied 60.6% 465/650
Private rented 9.3% 602/650
Social rented 29.1% 57/650
White 98.2% 88/650
Black 0.2% 537/650
Asian 1.3% 449/650
No religion 50.3% 1/59
Managerial & professional 20.9%
Higher Managerial & professional 4.4% 636/650
Routine & Semi-routine 37.8%
Semi-routine 21.1% 3/650
Degree level 15.8% 615/650
No qualifications 31.9% 59/650
Students 6.4% 398/650
2022 Census
Aged 65+ 20.6%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Glenrothes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Peter Grant 21,234 51.1 +8.3
Labour Pat Egan 9,477 22.8 -11.9
Conservative Amy Thomson 6,920 16.7 -2.8
Liberal Democrats Jane Ann Liston 2,639 6.4 +3.4
Brexit Party Victor Farrell 1,276 3.1 New
SNP Majority 11,757 28.3 +20.2
2019 electorate 65,762
Turnout 41,546 63.2 +2.3
SNP hold
Swing 10.1 Lab to SNP
The Brexit Party withdrew support for Victor Farrell over homophobic remarks.
Boundary Changes
Glenrothes and Mid Fife consists of
83.1% of Glenrothes
19.7% of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glenrothes_and_mid_fife.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Glenrothes has been one of four constituencies in Fife located predominantly in the south-east of the county, following the courses of the Rivers Ore and Leven from Cardenden and Glenrothes in the west towards their meeting point outside of Methil and then on to the Firth of Forth between Leven and Methil in the east. The seat also covers coastal communities of Fife south-west of Methil and towards the outskirts of Kirkcaldy. The boundary changes confirmed in 2023 remove more the SNP leaning areas of Windygates, Leven and Kennoway from the seat to join North East Fife. In exchange they add in, from Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, more ex-mining communities where Labour are competitive to the west including Kelty, Lochgelly and Ballingry - home to Britain's last Communist Councillor who retired in 2017, slightly improving Labour's chances overall in this constituency, which is renamed Glenrothes & Mid Fife to reflect the increased presence of that last mentioned section clustered around Loch Ore.
The coastal section of this constituency incorporates Methil, Buckhaven, and (‘Coaltown of’) Wemyss. These former mining communities collectively make up around 40% of the seat's electorate and represent some of Scotland's most deprived areas, with most parts of Methil being amongst the 5% most deprived parts of Scotland. The towns and villages which sit closely together in this area are almost entirely made up of deprived ex-council estates and tenements.
Accompanying Labour's initial breakthrough in the 1910 UK general elections, this area was solidly supportive of the Labour Party from 1910 until the SNP's Scotland-wide breakthrough over 100 years later in the 2011 Scottish election, from which point onwards it has voted SNP. In the 1990 local elections, the SNP made a breakthrough in Kennoway and Windygates - a ward which they gained in that election and have held in elections since, but now excluded from the new Glenrothes & Mid Fife - with the other wards sticking with Labour until switching to the SNP in 2012.
The deprived, disenfranchised demographic of this area was prime territory for the pro-independence Yes campaign in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, with an approximate 54% Yes vote, however it also likely had a higher Leave vote in the 2016 EU membership referendum, perhaps even being the only part of Fife to have voted to Leave the EU.
North-west of here sits the new town of Glenrothes. Of the four Fife constituencies, the neighbouring North East Fife seat to the east is significantly more rural, remote, affluent and touristic in nature, having more in common with rural parts of Perth and Kinross in its demography than the more urban, industrious and working-class southern Fife. And Glenrothes does feel in many respects like the edge of the industrial Scottish Central Belt, as driving beyond the town on the A916 feels like entering a completely different part of Scotland - elderly, rural, affluent: very much out-on-a-limb from the rest of Fife.
Glenrothes was designated as a coal-mining new town in 1948, with its population growing substantially from the early 1950s. It is the dominant section of this constituency and home to around 50% of electors.
As you might expect the town is predominantly made up of areas of mid-high deprivation, with patches of wealth in some areas. The town's Macedonia and Tanshall areas were the home of the SNP's first councillor in Fife, which the party gained in 1978 but lost in 1990, only to gain nearby Rimbleton, Fingassie and Leslie areas in the west of the town in 1994. In the 2007 Scottish election, the party topped the poll across the town for the first time, allowing them to gain Fife Central constituency in the Scottish Parliament and hold the reconfigured Glenrothes and Mid-Fife Scottish Parliament seat from 2011 onwards.
West of Glenrothes are yet more ex-mining villages including Cardenden, Dundonald, Bowhill and Kinglassie which were marginally contested between Labour and the SNP at 2022's local elections, being Labour's strongest part of the constituency and the SNP's weakest. Unlike the rest of the constituency, these areas are estimated to have marginally rejected Scottish independence in 2014.
Glenrothes constituency as a whole is estimated to have voted Yes to Scottish independence in the 2014 independence referendum by an approximate margin of 53% Yes 47% No, in contrast to a wider 55% No across Fife, and 63% No vote in neighbouring North East Fife. It was estimated to have one of the highest Brexit votes in Scotland in the 2016 EU membership referendum with a 48% Leave vote and 52% Remain vote, with coastal areas likely having voted to Leave the EU.
The Labour Party form the main opposition to the SNP in this seat, with the Conservatives doing better in some affluent suburbs on the outskirts of northern Glenrothes.
In its modern history like most of Scotland, Glenrothes constituency was a reliable seat for Labour until 2015, and has since voted SNP, who won the seat with a majority of 11,757 votes in 2019 - marking it as one of the SNP's safest seats in Scotland.
The pro-independence and more SNP-leaning tendencies of this seat compared to others in the Central Belt makes it a tough nut to crack for Labour, but given the seat's stronger history for the SNP and the general tendency for Scottish new towns to be better for the SNP than elsewhere, if Labour won this seat they would be in for many gains across the Central Belt of Scotland and would likely need to come in first place in Scotland ahead of the SNP.
It is possible, given much improved polling figures and results in local and Westminster byelections for Labour in Scotland lately and on the basis of the 2017 general election that Glenrothes & Mid Fife will be the only SNP seat standing in the historical 'Kingdom of Fife', with Labour forming a strong challenge to the SNP in Dunfermline & Dollar and Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy and the Liberal Democrats holding North East Fife. Peter Grant announced in June 2023 that he would not be standing again, and has been replaced as SNP candidate by John Beare, who finished top of the poll in the STV election for the council ward of Glenrothes North, Leslie & Markinch in 2022. The Nationalists perhaps can certainly rest a bit easier than in more vulnerable Westminster seats in Fife, but should be mindful not take this constituency for granted or rest too easy!
May 2022 Fife Council election results for wards wholly within Glenrothes & Mid Fife constituency
First preferences
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
SNP 49.5%
Labour 32.5
C 11.6
LD 3.8
Ind 2.6
Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch
SNP 44.6
Lab 26.4
C 18.6
LD 5.1
Green 3.6
Scottish Family 1.7
Glenrothes Central and Thornton
SNP 48.7
Lab 27.9
C 12.1
LD 3.9
G 3.7
Alba 2.2
Scottish F 1.5
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
SNP 47.4
Lab 40.2
C 6.5
LD 2.3
G 2.2
Alba 1.3
Lochgelly, Cardenden and Bennarty (added for Glenrothes & Mid Fife)
Lab 43.6
SNP 43.2
C 7.7
G 2.2
LD 1.8
Scottish F 1.5
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.0% 301/650
Owner-occupied 60.6% 465/650
Private rented 9.3% 602/650
Social rented 29.1% 57/650
White 98.2% 88/650
Black 0.2% 537/650
Asian 1.3% 449/650
No religion 50.3% 1/59
Managerial & professional 20.9%
Higher Managerial & professional 4.4% 636/650
Routine & Semi-routine 37.8%
Semi-routine 21.1% 3/650
Degree level 15.8% 615/650
No qualifications 31.9% 59/650
Students 6.4% 398/650
2022 Census
Aged 65+ 20.6%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Glenrothes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Peter Grant 21,234 51.1 +8.3
Labour Pat Egan 9,477 22.8 -11.9
Conservative Amy Thomson 6,920 16.7 -2.8
Liberal Democrats Jane Ann Liston 2,639 6.4 +3.4
Brexit Party Victor Farrell 1,276 3.1 New
SNP Majority 11,757 28.3 +20.2
2019 electorate 65,762
Turnout 41,546 63.2 +2.3
SNP hold
Swing 10.1 Lab to SNP
The Brexit Party withdrew support for Victor Farrell over homophobic remarks.
Boundary Changes
Glenrothes and Mid Fife consists of
83.1% of Glenrothes
19.7% of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/glenrothes_and_mid_fife.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20921 | 49.5% |
| Lab | 11569 | 27.4% |
| Con | 6482 | 15.3% |
| LD | 1876 | 4.4% |
| Brexit | 1284 | 3.0% |
| Green | 146 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 9352 | 22.1% |
