Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2023 21:24:45 GMT
East Anglia has been one of the main growth areas in Britain in recent decades, and the electorate numbers of Norfolk and Suffolk between them deserved an extra constituency in the boundary review that finally reported in June 2023. The Commission accomplished this task by creating an entirely new seat that crosses the county boundary. It is a genuine extra constituency in that it contains the majority of no previous seat; indeed, nowhere near a majority, as the largest single element is from South Norfolk, but this amounts to only 33.3% of that division. The other two thirds of Waveney Valley is all from Suffolk, but spread across no fewer than four donating constituencies: 18.8% of Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, 15.3% of Bury St Edmunds 8.8% of Waveney and 7.9% of Suffolk Coastal. It might be further noted that Waveney provides only the fourth largest chunk of the new Waveney Valley, whose name will no doubt be confused many non-locals, and possibly even some locals, into thinking that it is the same or a similar constituency, or at least Waveney’s successor. This possibility is enhanced by the fact that the large majority of the Waveney seat will now be called Lowestoft.
Waveney Valley, rather than being a coastal seat at the very eastern extremity of England, is instead entirely inland, and loosely united by the River Waveney, which rises in Suffolk near Redgrave (in Rickinghall ward which is in the new seat) and reaches the North Sea at Great Yarmouth in Norfolk (which is not). It is a seat of small towns and numerous villages.
Six wards are transferred out of South Norfolk into Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved is around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) are in Norfolk. The others are Bungay (which was in Waveney), Halesworth (formerly in Suffolk Coastal), and Eye – which was in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich but has the distinction of having had a whole constituency named after it, from 1571 to 1983. With a population even now of barely above 2,000, it was for a long time one of the smallest places to be so blessed, or even the smallest at times. The most populous in the Waveney Valley seat is likely to be Diss (9,600 in 2021), as Bungay, Halesworth and Harleston were all close to 5,000 at that date.
There are 19 wards in the new seat, of which the only one to be tightly drawn to urban limits is Diss & Roydon, the rest being either entirely composed of a collection of villages or a small town with rural terrain added to make up sufficient numbers. Waveney Valley is spread across three local government authorities even after the creation of the unified East Suffolk in 2019 - the others are Mid Suffolk and South Norfolk. This is one of the most rural constituencies in England.
The demographic statistics from the 212 census for the new Waveney Valley seat calculated by bjornhattan, confirm some of its unusual characteristics. For a start, though brand new as a parliamentary division, the age profile is one of the twenty most elderly in England and Wales, at no.14 in fact, with 29.2% of residents over 65. It is also higher up the los for owner occupied housing, and even higher for white residents (97.6%, 28th out of 575 in England and Wales). The numbers of professional and managerial workers, however, are close to the national norm, with the small towns, especially Diss/Roydon with a higher proportion of routine and semi-routine workers (32%) than average for Waveney Valley as a whole, and educational qualifications are decidedly low, with the new seat in the top 100 for ‘no qualifications’ – just over 20% across the Waveney Valley constituency, but over 30% in parts of the towns of Diss, Harleston and Halesworth. There are remarkably few full time students - less than 4%, placing Waveney Valley in the bottom 10 out of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales on this variable.
This may all sound like a recipe for a thoroughly Conservative seat. But that is belied by recent local election results. In the most recent local elections in May 2023 the Greens took all the available council seats in the two East Suffolk wards of Bungay & Wainford and Halesworth & Blything (all gains from the Conservatives). In Mid Suffolk, where the Greens took overall control in 2023 in an astonishing advance, they won seven of the 11 wards within the bounds of Waveney Valley, leaving four for the Tories: Fressingfield, Stradbroke & Laxfield and Hoxne & Worlingworth, which are in the north-east corner of the district, and Rickinghall in its north-western corner. There of these were fresh gains in 2023, including Eye (where they beat the Conservatives by 70.2% to 29.8%); in others, where they had won in 2019, the Green candidates obtained extremely high percentages: 75.5% in Bacton, 79.1% in Mendlesham. It does need to be said that in many wards other parties left the way clear for the Greens to take on the Tories – there were only a couple each of Labour and Liberal Democrats standing in the 11 wards within Mid Suffolk.
The story was different in the seven wards in South Norfolk section in May 2023. Yes, the Lib Dems held their two council seats in Ditchingham & Earsham. Yes, Labour gained one of the two in Harleston. But otherwise the Tories held every seat (barring one Independent gain in Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole), including the three in the most populous ward, Diss & Roydon, which has over 8,000 electors. Overall, though, the Greens’ total within Waveney Valley in May 2023 was 10% higher than the Conservatives, at 43.5% to 33.7%.
The notional 2019 calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for a hypothetical December 2019 contest in Waveney Valley suggest one of the safest Conservative victories in the nation, with a majority that would have been over 22,000 and over 43% in percentage terms, ahead of Labour in second place. However the remarkable Green success, particularly in the Mid Suffolk council area, means that this new seat will be of at least some interest. It may well be that the Greens cannot come near replicating their 43.5% share across the seat in May 2023. There is more than one reason for this. All the major parties will be standing in the general election here, which they did not in the council contests, and only Labour will have a chance of ousting the Conservatives in national government terms, whereas some predict the Greens will win no seats at all, or at the very most a handful. Also, like with the Liberal Democrat in many parts of the land, the Green party may well be seen as a more appropriate solution for local government issues than those decided at Westminster – and so municipal success, however striking, does not translate onto the green benches, as it were. But if the Conservatives continue to plumb the depths in the polls, both opinion and real, Waveney Valley’s result will be of more interest than it initially seemed it would.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 29.2% 14/575
Owner occupied 72.9% 104/575
Private rented 14.5% 459/575
Social rented 12.6% 403/575
White 97.6% 28/575
Black 0.3% 503/575
Asian 0.8% 547/575
Managerial & professional 32.6% 291/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.5% 260/575
Degree level 28.2% 86/575
No qualifications 20.1% 91/575
Students 3.8% 567/575
Boundary Changes
Waveney Valley consists of
33.3% of South Norfolk
18.8% of Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
15.3% of Bury St Edmunds
8.8% of Waveney
7.9% of Suffolk Coastal
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_105_Waveney%20Valley_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
Waveney Valley, rather than being a coastal seat at the very eastern extremity of England, is instead entirely inland, and loosely united by the River Waveney, which rises in Suffolk near Redgrave (in Rickinghall ward which is in the new seat) and reaches the North Sea at Great Yarmouth in Norfolk (which is not). It is a seat of small towns and numerous villages.
Six wards are transferred out of South Norfolk into Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved is around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) are in Norfolk. The others are Bungay (which was in Waveney), Halesworth (formerly in Suffolk Coastal), and Eye – which was in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich but has the distinction of having had a whole constituency named after it, from 1571 to 1983. With a population even now of barely above 2,000, it was for a long time one of the smallest places to be so blessed, or even the smallest at times. The most populous in the Waveney Valley seat is likely to be Diss (9,600 in 2021), as Bungay, Halesworth and Harleston were all close to 5,000 at that date.
There are 19 wards in the new seat, of which the only one to be tightly drawn to urban limits is Diss & Roydon, the rest being either entirely composed of a collection of villages or a small town with rural terrain added to make up sufficient numbers. Waveney Valley is spread across three local government authorities even after the creation of the unified East Suffolk in 2019 - the others are Mid Suffolk and South Norfolk. This is one of the most rural constituencies in England.
The demographic statistics from the 212 census for the new Waveney Valley seat calculated by bjornhattan, confirm some of its unusual characteristics. For a start, though brand new as a parliamentary division, the age profile is one of the twenty most elderly in England and Wales, at no.14 in fact, with 29.2% of residents over 65. It is also higher up the los for owner occupied housing, and even higher for white residents (97.6%, 28th out of 575 in England and Wales). The numbers of professional and managerial workers, however, are close to the national norm, with the small towns, especially Diss/Roydon with a higher proportion of routine and semi-routine workers (32%) than average for Waveney Valley as a whole, and educational qualifications are decidedly low, with the new seat in the top 100 for ‘no qualifications’ – just over 20% across the Waveney Valley constituency, but over 30% in parts of the towns of Diss, Harleston and Halesworth. There are remarkably few full time students - less than 4%, placing Waveney Valley in the bottom 10 out of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales on this variable.
This may all sound like a recipe for a thoroughly Conservative seat. But that is belied by recent local election results. In the most recent local elections in May 2023 the Greens took all the available council seats in the two East Suffolk wards of Bungay & Wainford and Halesworth & Blything (all gains from the Conservatives). In Mid Suffolk, where the Greens took overall control in 2023 in an astonishing advance, they won seven of the 11 wards within the bounds of Waveney Valley, leaving four for the Tories: Fressingfield, Stradbroke & Laxfield and Hoxne & Worlingworth, which are in the north-east corner of the district, and Rickinghall in its north-western corner. There of these were fresh gains in 2023, including Eye (where they beat the Conservatives by 70.2% to 29.8%); in others, where they had won in 2019, the Green candidates obtained extremely high percentages: 75.5% in Bacton, 79.1% in Mendlesham. It does need to be said that in many wards other parties left the way clear for the Greens to take on the Tories – there were only a couple each of Labour and Liberal Democrats standing in the 11 wards within Mid Suffolk.
The story was different in the seven wards in South Norfolk section in May 2023. Yes, the Lib Dems held their two council seats in Ditchingham & Earsham. Yes, Labour gained one of the two in Harleston. But otherwise the Tories held every seat (barring one Independent gain in Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole), including the three in the most populous ward, Diss & Roydon, which has over 8,000 electors. Overall, though, the Greens’ total within Waveney Valley in May 2023 was 10% higher than the Conservatives, at 43.5% to 33.7%.
The notional 2019 calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for a hypothetical December 2019 contest in Waveney Valley suggest one of the safest Conservative victories in the nation, with a majority that would have been over 22,000 and over 43% in percentage terms, ahead of Labour in second place. However the remarkable Green success, particularly in the Mid Suffolk council area, means that this new seat will be of at least some interest. It may well be that the Greens cannot come near replicating their 43.5% share across the seat in May 2023. There is more than one reason for this. All the major parties will be standing in the general election here, which they did not in the council contests, and only Labour will have a chance of ousting the Conservatives in national government terms, whereas some predict the Greens will win no seats at all, or at the very most a handful. Also, like with the Liberal Democrat in many parts of the land, the Green party may well be seen as a more appropriate solution for local government issues than those decided at Westminster – and so municipal success, however striking, does not translate onto the green benches, as it were. But if the Conservatives continue to plumb the depths in the polls, both opinion and real, Waveney Valley’s result will be of more interest than it initially seemed it would.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 29.2% 14/575
Owner occupied 72.9% 104/575
Private rented 14.5% 459/575
Social rented 12.6% 403/575
White 97.6% 28/575
Black 0.3% 503/575
Asian 0.8% 547/575
Managerial & professional 32.6% 291/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.5% 260/575
Degree level 28.2% 86/575
No qualifications 20.1% 91/575
Students 3.8% 567/575
Boundary Changes
Waveney Valley consists of
33.3% of South Norfolk
18.8% of Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
15.3% of Bury St Edmunds
8.8% of Waveney
7.9% of Suffolk Coastal
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_105_Waveney%20Valley_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31898 | 62.2% |
| Lab | 9534 | 18.6% |
| Green | 4775 | 9.3% |
| LD | 4696 | 9.1% |
| Oths | 377 | 0.7% |
| maj | 22364 | 43.6% |
