Post by therealriga on Nov 30, 2023 17:44:17 GMT
If Belfast West is the centre of Irish Republicanism, Belfast East could be its Ulster loyalist counterpart. The constituency has the highest proportion of protestants of any Northern Ireland constituency and is one of only three constituencies, along with North Down and Strangford, where nationalists have never won a seat at either Westminster or Assembly level.
The constituency is almost entirely urban. It begins with tough inner-city estates on the other side of the Lagan River from Belfast city centre. These include the Irish Republican enclave of Short Strand in the Ballymacarrett ward, the only concentration of Catholics in the constituency. Its outer reaches mostly consist of more upmarket housing in areas like Belmont, Stormont and Cherryvalley, though there are some more working class pockets in Braniel and parts of Dundonald. The constituency includes the local landmark of the twin cranes of Samson and Goliath, highlighting the area’s historic connections with the shipbuilding industry. Famously, this included the Titanic. In recent times, tourism has played a larger part in the local economy due to its connections with the Titanic and the location of the film studios where the popular “Game of thrones” TV series was made. The constituency also includes the smaller city airport, named after footballer George Best and the Stormont parliament buildings, home of the Northern Ireland Assembly and previously, the region’s parliament until 1973.
When last drawn for the 2010 election, East contained 11 wards of Belfast city council plus 12 wards of the suburban Castlereagh council. When the latter council was abolished as part of local government reform in 2014, just over half of the latter areas were added to Belfast city council. Until 1974, the constituency stretched across the river, taking in the Dock (now New Lodge) ward. From 1983 until 1997, it was the only Belfast constituency not wholly contained within the city boundary and the revisions for 1997 and 2010 took it further outside the city.
In the 2011 census, 70.3% declared British identity, the third highest in Northern Ireland. The crime rate, unemployment rate, number of benefits claimants and percentage of those with higher education qualifications were all slightly below the regional average. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, East was the only Belfast constituency to back leave, doing so by a small margin (51.4% to 48.6%.)
Throughout its history, East has been monolithically unionist, with cracks only appearing in the last decade. Until World War 2 the constituency was held securely by unionist or Conservative candidates. So safe was the constituency in this period that twelve of the 14 elections from 1892 to 1945 were uncontested.
The three decades following World War 2 saw a consistent pattern. Ulster Unionist Party candidates won two-way contests, with Northern Ireland Labour Party (NILP) candidates taking between 35% and 43%. This pattern ended in the 1970s. The constituency’s expansion further away from the working class centre diluted the left-wing vote and NILP imploded around this period, disappearing in the following decade. Stanley McMaster of the UUP had represented the constituency since a 1959 by-election. In 1974, he backed the power-sharing Assembly under Brian Faulkner. McMaster’s opponent was former Stormont minister Bill Craig, who had broken from the UUP to oppose power-sharing. Craig’s traditional base of Larne was in the North Antrim constituency of Ian Paisley. Craig launched the Vanguard party, criticised by opponents as a neo-fascist group. Craig was successful in both 1974 elections. In 1977, in a surprise move, he suggested a voluntary coalition with the Irish nationalist SDLP. This split Vanguard, with most of the members going into a new party, the UUUP. In 1978, Craig folded the remains of Vanguard back into the Ulster Unionist Party. Defending his seat under UUP colours in 1979 he found himself outflanked in a close 3-way contest by the DUP, whose candidate Peter Robinson won by 64 votes, with the centrist Alliance Party 900 votes behind.
Under Robinson, East became a safe DUP seat, the only one apart from North Antrim the party held from 1979 until 2010. In these three decades Robinson won easily, with the only minor excitement being which of the UUP or Alliance could claim a distant second place. By this time, Robinson was the longest serving Belfast MP since the Act of Union.
Robinson’s troubles began with the financial crisis and expenses scandals of the late 2000s. His senior position in the DUP had enabled him to assist the career of his wife, Iris, whose progression led her to become MP for the neighbouring Strangford constituency, the only husband and wife team to represent Northern Ireland constituencies simultaneously. Criticism of the Robinsons focused on their building of three luxurious homes, leading to the derogatory nickname of “Swish family Robinson.” Greater problems came with an extraordinary scandal dubbed Irisgate, after it was revealed that Iris Robinson, then 61 years old, had had an affair with a 19-year-old aspiring businessman and had used her positions to secure financial favours for him. Given the DUP’s social conservatism, the press capitalised on it. Questions arose about how much Peter Robinson knew about his wife’s financial dealings and whether he had covered them up. Despite his denials, the mud stuck. In one of the biggest shocks of the 2010 election, he found himself unseated on a 23% swing, with the Alliance candidate, Naomi Long winning from a distant third place having started the campaign as a 100-to-1 outsider.
Following the result, the DUP heavily targeted East and, in the 2015 election, Gavin Robinson – no relation to Peter or Iris – regained the seat for the party by 2,597 votes. However, the DUP’s heavy focus on this seat possibly cost them a victory in Belfast South, where they lost by 900 votes in a close contest. Robinson increased his majority significantly in the 2017 election to nearly 8,500 votes. However, this proved fleeting. In the 2019 election, he saw his majority cut to 1,819 votes, with Naomi Long taking the highest ever Alliance share in the constituency of over 44%. In 2022, Alliance also outpolled the DUP for the first time in the constituency in an Assembly election.
The boundary changes see the Garnerville ward transferred to North Down. In compensation, East gains territory from Belfast South in the form of half of the divided Cregagh ward, and the Hillfoot and Woodstock wards. These changes slightly benefit the DUP, but with Alliance on the ascendancy across Northern Ireland, Robinson will have to fight hard to retain his seat.
The constituency is almost entirely urban. It begins with tough inner-city estates on the other side of the Lagan River from Belfast city centre. These include the Irish Republican enclave of Short Strand in the Ballymacarrett ward, the only concentration of Catholics in the constituency. Its outer reaches mostly consist of more upmarket housing in areas like Belmont, Stormont and Cherryvalley, though there are some more working class pockets in Braniel and parts of Dundonald. The constituency includes the local landmark of the twin cranes of Samson and Goliath, highlighting the area’s historic connections with the shipbuilding industry. Famously, this included the Titanic. In recent times, tourism has played a larger part in the local economy due to its connections with the Titanic and the location of the film studios where the popular “Game of thrones” TV series was made. The constituency also includes the smaller city airport, named after footballer George Best and the Stormont parliament buildings, home of the Northern Ireland Assembly and previously, the region’s parliament until 1973.
When last drawn for the 2010 election, East contained 11 wards of Belfast city council plus 12 wards of the suburban Castlereagh council. When the latter council was abolished as part of local government reform in 2014, just over half of the latter areas were added to Belfast city council. Until 1974, the constituency stretched across the river, taking in the Dock (now New Lodge) ward. From 1983 until 1997, it was the only Belfast constituency not wholly contained within the city boundary and the revisions for 1997 and 2010 took it further outside the city.
In the 2011 census, 70.3% declared British identity, the third highest in Northern Ireland. The crime rate, unemployment rate, number of benefits claimants and percentage of those with higher education qualifications were all slightly below the regional average. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, East was the only Belfast constituency to back leave, doing so by a small margin (51.4% to 48.6%.)
Throughout its history, East has been monolithically unionist, with cracks only appearing in the last decade. Until World War 2 the constituency was held securely by unionist or Conservative candidates. So safe was the constituency in this period that twelve of the 14 elections from 1892 to 1945 were uncontested.
The three decades following World War 2 saw a consistent pattern. Ulster Unionist Party candidates won two-way contests, with Northern Ireland Labour Party (NILP) candidates taking between 35% and 43%. This pattern ended in the 1970s. The constituency’s expansion further away from the working class centre diluted the left-wing vote and NILP imploded around this period, disappearing in the following decade. Stanley McMaster of the UUP had represented the constituency since a 1959 by-election. In 1974, he backed the power-sharing Assembly under Brian Faulkner. McMaster’s opponent was former Stormont minister Bill Craig, who had broken from the UUP to oppose power-sharing. Craig’s traditional base of Larne was in the North Antrim constituency of Ian Paisley. Craig launched the Vanguard party, criticised by opponents as a neo-fascist group. Craig was successful in both 1974 elections. In 1977, in a surprise move, he suggested a voluntary coalition with the Irish nationalist SDLP. This split Vanguard, with most of the members going into a new party, the UUUP. In 1978, Craig folded the remains of Vanguard back into the Ulster Unionist Party. Defending his seat under UUP colours in 1979 he found himself outflanked in a close 3-way contest by the DUP, whose candidate Peter Robinson won by 64 votes, with the centrist Alliance Party 900 votes behind.
Under Robinson, East became a safe DUP seat, the only one apart from North Antrim the party held from 1979 until 2010. In these three decades Robinson won easily, with the only minor excitement being which of the UUP or Alliance could claim a distant second place. By this time, Robinson was the longest serving Belfast MP since the Act of Union.
Robinson’s troubles began with the financial crisis and expenses scandals of the late 2000s. His senior position in the DUP had enabled him to assist the career of his wife, Iris, whose progression led her to become MP for the neighbouring Strangford constituency, the only husband and wife team to represent Northern Ireland constituencies simultaneously. Criticism of the Robinsons focused on their building of three luxurious homes, leading to the derogatory nickname of “Swish family Robinson.” Greater problems came with an extraordinary scandal dubbed Irisgate, after it was revealed that Iris Robinson, then 61 years old, had had an affair with a 19-year-old aspiring businessman and had used her positions to secure financial favours for him. Given the DUP’s social conservatism, the press capitalised on it. Questions arose about how much Peter Robinson knew about his wife’s financial dealings and whether he had covered them up. Despite his denials, the mud stuck. In one of the biggest shocks of the 2010 election, he found himself unseated on a 23% swing, with the Alliance candidate, Naomi Long winning from a distant third place having started the campaign as a 100-to-1 outsider.
Following the result, the DUP heavily targeted East and, in the 2015 election, Gavin Robinson – no relation to Peter or Iris – regained the seat for the party by 2,597 votes. However, the DUP’s heavy focus on this seat possibly cost them a victory in Belfast South, where they lost by 900 votes in a close contest. Robinson increased his majority significantly in the 2017 election to nearly 8,500 votes. However, this proved fleeting. In the 2019 election, he saw his majority cut to 1,819 votes, with Naomi Long taking the highest ever Alliance share in the constituency of over 44%. In 2022, Alliance also outpolled the DUP for the first time in the constituency in an Assembly election.
The boundary changes see the Garnerville ward transferred to North Down. In compensation, East gains territory from Belfast South in the form of half of the divided Cregagh ward, and the Hillfoot and Woodstock wards. These changes slightly benefit the DUP, but with Alliance on the ascendancy across Northern Ireland, Robinson will have to fight hard to retain his seat.
