Post by andrewp on Nov 29, 2023 17:22:29 GMT
Based on the original profile by loderingo
Torfaen is a contender for the most obscure constituency name in Wales. Where is Torfaen? Well, it is the most easterly of the 9 parliamentary constituencies covering the valleys of South Wales. The Torfaen (pronunciation Tor-vine - Tor like Glastonbury, vine like grapes) constituency was created in 1983 and was named after the borough of the same name. However, it is the clear successor to the Pontypool constituency that existed from 1918-83. Torfaen means breaker of stones and was an old name for the Afon Lwyd river that runs through the borough from North to the South. The three largest towns here are, from South to North, Cwmbran ( population 49,000), Pontypool (30,000) and Blaenavon (6000)
In the north of the seat Blaenavon is set at the very top of the valley on the side of Blorenge mountain. Blaenavon is only 3 miles over the mountain as the crow flies from the comfortable Monmouthshire town of Abergavenny but is socially a lot further away. Blaenavon is home to the Big Pit mining museum and has a world heritage site for its industrial landscape.
In the middle of the seat is Pontypool another town that grew up around iron and coal. Pontypool is the administrative centre for Torfaen and is the traditional old town of the constituency. Just to the east of Pontypool is the fairly affluent owner occupied village of New Inn, which is a rarity here in often electing Conservative councillors , although Labour gained the ward in 2022.
In the south of the seat is Wales' only new town - Cwmbran - which was founded in 1949 and is now the largest town in the constituency. It was originally built to rectify the shortage of available housing for workers in the South East Wales coalfield. These days it has a large biscuit factory that makes wagon wheels.
One of Wales' hidden gems passes through part of this constituency - the Monmouthshire and Brecon canal. The upper part of the canal was built above the valley floor winding around the contours of the hillsides, rather than using locks. This probably saved it for being replaced by the railway as happened to other coalfield canals. There has been some restoration and it is now possible to travel from Newport to Brecon again.
This seat and its predecessor have always elected Labour MPs since 1918. A previous MP for Pontypool was Leo Abse who campaigned for the decriminalisation of homosexuality. The MP from 1987 to 2015 was Paul Murphy who served as Northern Irish and Welsh secretaries during the last Labour government. In 2015 Nick Thomas-Symonds took over and has had a rapid rise to be Shadow Home Secretary. He is from the constituency and grew up in Abersychan, which was also the home town of Roy Jenkins.
In 2019, Labour's majority was reduced to the lowest it has been since 1924 at 3,742 and the Labour share was lower than the Conservative and Brexit party shares combined (Lab 42%, Con 32%, Brexit 15%, LD 5%, Plaid 4%, Green 2%). A far cry from the 69% Labour received here in 1997. Like most of South Wales, where the Conservatives did well in 2019, there was no sign of that momentum carrying forward into the local elections of 2022. Not a single Conservative councillor was elected in Torfaen, 29 Labour councillors were against an opposition of 11 Independents
The signs as to why the 2019 result might have happened are there to see. The seat voted 60% to leave in the 2016 EU referendum, lower only than Blaenau Gwent in Wales. The seat has some of the characteristics of the much loved ‘red wall’, constituencies in the Midlands and Northern England with the collapse of a traditional industry and an economic base that has struggled. The constituency is in the top 100 in England and Wales for those in semi routine occupations ( 43rd) and for routine occupations (76th). It is also relatively low skilled and is just outside the top 100 for the percentage of people with no formal qualifications. The seat is 95.2% white British ( which places it 34th) and still has a relatively high percentage ( 23.8% of all housing ) of social housing.
In the current boundary review, Torfaen is amongst the least radically changed parliamentary constituencies in Wales with the existing electorate of 62,500 supplemented by adding the 8000 electors, from Croesyceiliog and Llanyrafon near Cwmbran, that are in the Torfaen Council area but currently in the Monmouth constituency. This brings the constituency boundary to be conterminous with the Torfaen council area,. These wards are slightly more owner occupied than average for Torfaen, and the Conservatives can usually ( but not in 2022) win one of the wards in Llanyrafon. These changes would have probably reduced the Labour majority slightly to about 8%. In the abandoned review it would also have taken the Newport ward of Caerleon, making it slightly more marginal
The current national picture obviously makes it unlikely for the foreseeable future but if, in a future electoral cycle, the Conservative welsh valley seat did becoming a thing, then this probably would be the most likely one. As it is Labour need to take the opportunity of the favourable circumstances to rebuild their majority here in a seat that could, just possibly, slide away from them in the future. It is certainly a seat to keep an eye on and it will be interesting to see whether Thomas-Symonds' higher profile can help Labour rebuild their majority to safer levels.
Torfaen is a contender for the most obscure constituency name in Wales. Where is Torfaen? Well, it is the most easterly of the 9 parliamentary constituencies covering the valleys of South Wales. The Torfaen (pronunciation Tor-vine - Tor like Glastonbury, vine like grapes) constituency was created in 1983 and was named after the borough of the same name. However, it is the clear successor to the Pontypool constituency that existed from 1918-83. Torfaen means breaker of stones and was an old name for the Afon Lwyd river that runs through the borough from North to the South. The three largest towns here are, from South to North, Cwmbran ( population 49,000), Pontypool (30,000) and Blaenavon (6000)
In the north of the seat Blaenavon is set at the very top of the valley on the side of Blorenge mountain. Blaenavon is only 3 miles over the mountain as the crow flies from the comfortable Monmouthshire town of Abergavenny but is socially a lot further away. Blaenavon is home to the Big Pit mining museum and has a world heritage site for its industrial landscape.
In the middle of the seat is Pontypool another town that grew up around iron and coal. Pontypool is the administrative centre for Torfaen and is the traditional old town of the constituency. Just to the east of Pontypool is the fairly affluent owner occupied village of New Inn, which is a rarity here in often electing Conservative councillors , although Labour gained the ward in 2022.
In the south of the seat is Wales' only new town - Cwmbran - which was founded in 1949 and is now the largest town in the constituency. It was originally built to rectify the shortage of available housing for workers in the South East Wales coalfield. These days it has a large biscuit factory that makes wagon wheels.
One of Wales' hidden gems passes through part of this constituency - the Monmouthshire and Brecon canal. The upper part of the canal was built above the valley floor winding around the contours of the hillsides, rather than using locks. This probably saved it for being replaced by the railway as happened to other coalfield canals. There has been some restoration and it is now possible to travel from Newport to Brecon again.
This seat and its predecessor have always elected Labour MPs since 1918. A previous MP for Pontypool was Leo Abse who campaigned for the decriminalisation of homosexuality. The MP from 1987 to 2015 was Paul Murphy who served as Northern Irish and Welsh secretaries during the last Labour government. In 2015 Nick Thomas-Symonds took over and has had a rapid rise to be Shadow Home Secretary. He is from the constituency and grew up in Abersychan, which was also the home town of Roy Jenkins.
In 2019, Labour's majority was reduced to the lowest it has been since 1924 at 3,742 and the Labour share was lower than the Conservative and Brexit party shares combined (Lab 42%, Con 32%, Brexit 15%, LD 5%, Plaid 4%, Green 2%). A far cry from the 69% Labour received here in 1997. Like most of South Wales, where the Conservatives did well in 2019, there was no sign of that momentum carrying forward into the local elections of 2022. Not a single Conservative councillor was elected in Torfaen, 29 Labour councillors were against an opposition of 11 Independents
The signs as to why the 2019 result might have happened are there to see. The seat voted 60% to leave in the 2016 EU referendum, lower only than Blaenau Gwent in Wales. The seat has some of the characteristics of the much loved ‘red wall’, constituencies in the Midlands and Northern England with the collapse of a traditional industry and an economic base that has struggled. The constituency is in the top 100 in England and Wales for those in semi routine occupations ( 43rd) and for routine occupations (76th). It is also relatively low skilled and is just outside the top 100 for the percentage of people with no formal qualifications. The seat is 95.2% white British ( which places it 34th) and still has a relatively high percentage ( 23.8% of all housing ) of social housing.
In the current boundary review, Torfaen is amongst the least radically changed parliamentary constituencies in Wales with the existing electorate of 62,500 supplemented by adding the 8000 electors, from Croesyceiliog and Llanyrafon near Cwmbran, that are in the Torfaen Council area but currently in the Monmouth constituency. This brings the constituency boundary to be conterminous with the Torfaen council area,. These wards are slightly more owner occupied than average for Torfaen, and the Conservatives can usually ( but not in 2022) win one of the wards in Llanyrafon. These changes would have probably reduced the Labour majority slightly to about 8%. In the abandoned review it would also have taken the Newport ward of Caerleon, making it slightly more marginal
The current national picture obviously makes it unlikely for the foreseeable future but if, in a future electoral cycle, the Conservative welsh valley seat did becoming a thing, then this probably would be the most likely one. As it is Labour need to take the opportunity of the favourable circumstances to rebuild their majority here in a seat that could, just possibly, slide away from them in the future. It is certainly a seat to keep an eye on and it will be interesting to see whether Thomas-Symonds' higher profile can help Labour rebuild their majority to safer levels.
