Post by Robert Waller on Nov 29, 2023 16:30:41 GMT
The below is largely based on the previous profile by East Anglian Lefty, who has given his kind permission to update and add, which I have attempted to do. He is the first person "I" in the below.
Colchester arose at the lowest bridging point of the River Colne as the primary stronghold of the Trinovantes tribe. Between the Roman invasion of 43AD and its burning by Boadicea, it was the capital of the province of Britannia. Whilst local signs always used to refer to it as Britain's oldest town, those have recently been replaced by signs calling it "Britain's First City", in line with the borough council's repeated, unsuccessful and less than universally popular attempts to have the town designated as a city.
Colchester's Roman heritage is obvious when you walk round it. Parts of the Roman walls still survive, whilst the Norman castle (built on the site of the Temple of Claudius) was rebuilt in the 18th century using Roman stone by a somewhat confused local antiquary. Pretty much every major construction scheme in the town uncovers new Roman remains, notably a complete chariot racing track unearthed about a decade ago.
Colchester was besieged during the Second Civil War. After the surrender, several royalist commanders were shot (and to add insult to injury, then had insalubrious streets and serially underperforming schools named after them.) The town, meanwhile, had ruinous fines imposed on it, devastating the local cloth industry (whose close links with the Netherlands explain the Dutch quarter, just north of the city centre.)
Since then, Colchester has mostly been known as a garrison town. In the 2000s the old barracks were replaced by a new PFI scheme and since then the sites have mostly been redeveloped, creating thousands of extra houses in the south of the town. On the civilian side, Colchester's industries used to be centred around light engineering, particularly the manufacture of diesel engines. That has now largely vanished and the major employers are the NHS and the University of Essex (although the University itself is located just to the east of the town in Wivenhoe Park.) The town also has a significant commuter population, as when the trains are functioning properly you can get to Liverpool Street within the hour.
There has been a Colchester constituency since 1295, although between 1983 and 1997 the town was divided, with Colchester South being combined with Maldon and Colchester North with parts of Tendring district. The Colchester seat (at that time including rural areas outside the town) fell to Labour in 1945 and was marginal in 1966 (when Michael Meacher cut the Tory majority to just over 1000) but was otherwise Conservative. In 1997, it was a tight three-way marginal which was narrowly gained by Bob Russell.
Russell, who was first elected as a Labour borough councillor before defecting to the SDP and thence joining the Lib Dems, established a reputation as a hard-working champion for the town and reliable rent-a-quote, who seemed to enjoy a considerable personal vote. His defeat by Will Quince in 2015 was a surprise, and the collapse of his vote in favour of Labour in 2017 was even more of a shock. Whilst Labour fell back in 2019, the Lib Dem vote shrank even further, cementing Labour's position as the major challenger to the Tories. A 9% swing would be needed to take it, but that still makes it the most marginal seat in Essex.
Labour support is strongest in the east and south of the town, whilst the Tories do best in the west and to a lesser extent the north. The most consistently Labour ward is undoubtedly Greenstead, which has had continuous Labour representation at a borough level since 1973. As that would imply, it's a traditional council estate ward (with 39% still social rented in the 2021 census, the highest of any MSOA in Colchester), although these days an increasing number of students have their digs there. To the north lies the St. Anne's & St John's ward. Whilst St. Anne's has some of the most deprived parts of the town, it's somewhere Labour has underperformed in local elections since the turn of the millennium. St. John's, on the other hand, is a combination of bungalows and stolid semi-detached housing, with a substantial elderly population and a very definite right-of-centre lean. At a local level the combined ward is a LD/Con marginal (LD the last four times) but in general elections I would suspect much of the LD vote goes Tory.
South of the river is the Old Heath & The Hythe ward. The north of the ward is the Hythe, which is the historic port area. There's been a fair amount of regeneration here, though it's been held back by the persistent odour of sewage from the river. Nevertheless, it's a short walk to campus from there so it's still a relatively popular area with students. Further south, you have the Old Heath area, which is largely made of council and ex-council properties. In the south of the ward (though not in the current constituency) is the separate village of Rowhedge. Although some of the predecessor wards were Lib Dem-held, these days the ward votes fairly securely Labour in local elections (59% to 16% Tory in second place in 2023) and I have no reason to doubt that it does in general elections too.
Much the same can be said of Berechurch ward to its west, the bulk of which is made up of the Monkwick Estate (although there's a fair amount of new housing on ex-garrison land here too, and Monkwick MSOA was only 21% social rented in 2021) Labour have won Berechurch every time in Colchester council contests since 2011, and did so with a majority of over 50% in May 2023. Further west, however, Shrub End ward is rather more politically marginal. Another historic council estate ward (26% social rented in 2021), Labour have struggled here in local elections for the past two decades. It will have voted Lib Dem up until 2010, Conservative in 2015, been close in 2017 and Conservative in 2019. In local elections the Liberal Democrats have won Shrub End since 2019. If Labour can carry the ward at the next general election, they'll probably win the seat.
To the north of these three wards lies New Town and Christ Church. New Town is to the south-east of the town centre, along Military Road and Magdalen Street, and was Bob Russell's original political base. Christchurch is to the south-west of the town centre along the Maldon Road and has more of a Conservative electoral history. Between the two there is a fair amount of new housing on former garrison land. This ward has a large private rented sector, and it's perhaps unsurprising that this was the ward which swung hardest to Labour under Corbyn. Labour have won the ward in the last three local elections from 2021 to 2023.
To the north, Castle is the town centre ward, although in fact only a small portion of the electorate live in the town centre proper, as opposed to various estates scattered around it. Up until 2016 the Lib Dems held all the seats here, since then first the Conservatives and then the Greens who have taken the seats here from 2019 through 2023 inclusive. Whilst it's unlikely they'll win it in local elections, in a general election Labour does need to win here.
To the north of the railway line sit the wards of Mile End and Highwoods, which are divided from one another by Highwoods Country Park. Mile End, where the hospital is located, is extremely middle class. At a local level it's strongly Lib Dem, but there was a surprise Conservative victory here in the 2015 local elections which must indicate that they carried the ward that year. As general elections re-orientate around a Labour/Conservative contest, Although the LDs have won Mile End continuously since 2007 and took 61% of the vote in 2023, I can only assume that will have continued.
Highwoods proper (i.e. the area around the big Tesco’s) very likely votes similarly, but the last quarter century has seen a lot of new housing built in the north of the ward, much of which is populated by young families. My assumption is that it still votes Conservative by a decent margin, but rather less than that in Mile End. Then again, Mile End also has a lot of new housing, but I don't know very much about what it's like so I can't speculate about its electoral behaviour. However it certainly has attracted a lot in professional and managerial work, which accounted for 48% in Mile End South MSOA in the 2021 census, and 47% in Mile End North, Braiswick & Kingswood Heath. These are the highest in the city, just ahead of the Lexden and Prettygate areas, which are around 43% on this indicator. Highwood is lower down the socio–economic scale, at 36% prof/man just above the Colchester average of 34%.
Finally, in the west of town we have the wards of Prettygate and Lexden & Braiswick (although the bulk of the electorate of the latter ward lives in neither of those two areas, but is instead located in villages outside Colchester.) Both areas are solidly and traditionally middle-class and owner occupied (Prettygate 84% so in 2021 and Lexden 77%), and have been held by Conservatives locally for at least twenty years.
In December 2019, Colchester’s electorate was 82,625, which is outside the 5% tolerance allowed by the latest Boundary Commission for England, so a section of the seat had to be removed. The initial proposals suggested that this should be the Prettygate ward, but after a very large number of objections were raised in the public consultation process, the revised and final reports have instead resulted in the removal of the whole of the Old Heath & The Hythe ward, even though it too has strong links with the town, as the two named communities are clearly part of Colchester’s built up area. On the other hand the ward also extends south to Rowhedge, which is right next to Wivenhoe, already in the Harwich seat, along with the campus of the University of Essex, which is physically nearby OId Heath, though separated by the River Colne. As with the Prettygate suggestion, this territory will be transferred to the Harwich & North Essex division. The Lexden & Braiswick ward will remain split between the two constituencies, with around 4,400 electors placed in Harwich & North Essex and just under 3,000 in Colchester. Finally, some minor tidying up is done in the boundaries to make sure that is the only split ward.
The second version of the boundary changes in this most recent cycle was decidedly less favourable to Labour’s chances than the first, as while Prettygate in the west was one of the more Tory parts of Colchester (solidly since 2004, though the Lib Dems were just 22 votes behind in May 2023), Old Heath & The Hythe in the south has elected no one but Labour since 2002. Overall the difference was something of the order of a 10% swing to Labour now being needed, rather than 9% as on the actual December 2019 result.
Colchester’s demographic statistics (on the new boundaries, thanks to bjornhattan) fit with it being a marginal constituency. Its age profile is somewhat younger than average, and over 10% are full time students, which is higher than Harwich & North Essex despite the Essex University campus being in that seat – many living in housing in Colchester itself, especially in Greenstead MSOA (37% student in 2021), and historically Essex University (as well as being a strongpoint for psephology, with Ivor Crewe having risen to be Vice Chancellor) has seen radical left wing activity, considerably dampened nowadays. The owner occupied proportion is lower than average, especially outside big cities. This is mainly due to a high private rented housing proportion of 26.7%, which rises to 42.5% in Central Colchester MSOA and 36% in Mile End South. The occupational class figures are close to the national average, and there are significant ethnic minority communities, with Asians 7% of the whole and 13% in Mile End South, and Black residents 4.3% overall and 9% in Greenstead.
Colchester was a key Labour target at a 2024 general election. Its demographic profile said it was a possible gain. So did its recent local government election results, with the Conservatives only polling 24% within the seat in May 2023, though quite a lot of the high Liberal Democrat share (34%) would have to be prepared to switch to Labour, which the 2017 and 2019 Westminster results suggested they might; the days of Bob Russell seem a long time ago now. Nevertheless Labour had only ever won Colchester once, in 1945, so they had to do better than in 1966 or 1997. Therefore an easy win by over 8,000 in July 2024 was a genuine achievement, and addition to the long history of dramatic events in this ancient community.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 14.3% 458/575
Owner occupied 57.7% 427/575
Private rented 26.7% 93/575
Social rented 15.6% 267/575
White 83.5% 374/575
Black 4.3% 149/575
Asian 6.8% 223/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 253/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.0% 305/575
Degree level 33.3% 250/575
No qualifications 15.1% 415/575
. Students 10.2% 94/650
General Election 2024: Colchester
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Pam Cox 18,804 41.9 +11.8
Conservative James Cracknell 10,554 23.5 −28.8
Reform UK Terence Longstaff[24] 6,664 14.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Martin Goss[25] 6,393 14.2 −0.5
Green Sara Ruth[26] 2,414 5.4 +2.5
Climate James Rolfe[27] 74 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 8,250 18.4 N/A
Turnout 44,903 57.0 –6.8
Registered electors 78,662
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 20.3 C to Lab
General election 2019: Colchester
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Will Quince 26,917 50.4 +4.5
Labour Tina McKay 17,494 32.8 −2.5
Liberal Democrats Martin Goss 7,432 13.9 −3.1
Green Mark Goacher 1,530 2.9 +1.4
C Majority 9,423 17.7 +7.0
2019 electorate 82,625
Turnout 53,373 64.6 −2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Colchester consists of
91.0% of Colchester
0.7% of Harwich & North Essex
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_060_Colchester_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Colchester arose at the lowest bridging point of the River Colne as the primary stronghold of the Trinovantes tribe. Between the Roman invasion of 43AD and its burning by Boadicea, it was the capital of the province of Britannia. Whilst local signs always used to refer to it as Britain's oldest town, those have recently been replaced by signs calling it "Britain's First City", in line with the borough council's repeated, unsuccessful and less than universally popular attempts to have the town designated as a city.
Colchester's Roman heritage is obvious when you walk round it. Parts of the Roman walls still survive, whilst the Norman castle (built on the site of the Temple of Claudius) was rebuilt in the 18th century using Roman stone by a somewhat confused local antiquary. Pretty much every major construction scheme in the town uncovers new Roman remains, notably a complete chariot racing track unearthed about a decade ago.
Colchester was besieged during the Second Civil War. After the surrender, several royalist commanders were shot (and to add insult to injury, then had insalubrious streets and serially underperforming schools named after them.) The town, meanwhile, had ruinous fines imposed on it, devastating the local cloth industry (whose close links with the Netherlands explain the Dutch quarter, just north of the city centre.)
Since then, Colchester has mostly been known as a garrison town. In the 2000s the old barracks were replaced by a new PFI scheme and since then the sites have mostly been redeveloped, creating thousands of extra houses in the south of the town. On the civilian side, Colchester's industries used to be centred around light engineering, particularly the manufacture of diesel engines. That has now largely vanished and the major employers are the NHS and the University of Essex (although the University itself is located just to the east of the town in Wivenhoe Park.) The town also has a significant commuter population, as when the trains are functioning properly you can get to Liverpool Street within the hour.
There has been a Colchester constituency since 1295, although between 1983 and 1997 the town was divided, with Colchester South being combined with Maldon and Colchester North with parts of Tendring district. The Colchester seat (at that time including rural areas outside the town) fell to Labour in 1945 and was marginal in 1966 (when Michael Meacher cut the Tory majority to just over 1000) but was otherwise Conservative. In 1997, it was a tight three-way marginal which was narrowly gained by Bob Russell.
Russell, who was first elected as a Labour borough councillor before defecting to the SDP and thence joining the Lib Dems, established a reputation as a hard-working champion for the town and reliable rent-a-quote, who seemed to enjoy a considerable personal vote. His defeat by Will Quince in 2015 was a surprise, and the collapse of his vote in favour of Labour in 2017 was even more of a shock. Whilst Labour fell back in 2019, the Lib Dem vote shrank even further, cementing Labour's position as the major challenger to the Tories. A 9% swing would be needed to take it, but that still makes it the most marginal seat in Essex.
Labour support is strongest in the east and south of the town, whilst the Tories do best in the west and to a lesser extent the north. The most consistently Labour ward is undoubtedly Greenstead, which has had continuous Labour representation at a borough level since 1973. As that would imply, it's a traditional council estate ward (with 39% still social rented in the 2021 census, the highest of any MSOA in Colchester), although these days an increasing number of students have their digs there. To the north lies the St. Anne's & St John's ward. Whilst St. Anne's has some of the most deprived parts of the town, it's somewhere Labour has underperformed in local elections since the turn of the millennium. St. John's, on the other hand, is a combination of bungalows and stolid semi-detached housing, with a substantial elderly population and a very definite right-of-centre lean. At a local level the combined ward is a LD/Con marginal (LD the last four times) but in general elections I would suspect much of the LD vote goes Tory.
South of the river is the Old Heath & The Hythe ward. The north of the ward is the Hythe, which is the historic port area. There's been a fair amount of regeneration here, though it's been held back by the persistent odour of sewage from the river. Nevertheless, it's a short walk to campus from there so it's still a relatively popular area with students. Further south, you have the Old Heath area, which is largely made of council and ex-council properties. In the south of the ward (though not in the current constituency) is the separate village of Rowhedge. Although some of the predecessor wards were Lib Dem-held, these days the ward votes fairly securely Labour in local elections (59% to 16% Tory in second place in 2023) and I have no reason to doubt that it does in general elections too.
Much the same can be said of Berechurch ward to its west, the bulk of which is made up of the Monkwick Estate (although there's a fair amount of new housing on ex-garrison land here too, and Monkwick MSOA was only 21% social rented in 2021) Labour have won Berechurch every time in Colchester council contests since 2011, and did so with a majority of over 50% in May 2023. Further west, however, Shrub End ward is rather more politically marginal. Another historic council estate ward (26% social rented in 2021), Labour have struggled here in local elections for the past two decades. It will have voted Lib Dem up until 2010, Conservative in 2015, been close in 2017 and Conservative in 2019. In local elections the Liberal Democrats have won Shrub End since 2019. If Labour can carry the ward at the next general election, they'll probably win the seat.
To the north of these three wards lies New Town and Christ Church. New Town is to the south-east of the town centre, along Military Road and Magdalen Street, and was Bob Russell's original political base. Christchurch is to the south-west of the town centre along the Maldon Road and has more of a Conservative electoral history. Between the two there is a fair amount of new housing on former garrison land. This ward has a large private rented sector, and it's perhaps unsurprising that this was the ward which swung hardest to Labour under Corbyn. Labour have won the ward in the last three local elections from 2021 to 2023.
To the north, Castle is the town centre ward, although in fact only a small portion of the electorate live in the town centre proper, as opposed to various estates scattered around it. Up until 2016 the Lib Dems held all the seats here, since then first the Conservatives and then the Greens who have taken the seats here from 2019 through 2023 inclusive. Whilst it's unlikely they'll win it in local elections, in a general election Labour does need to win here.
To the north of the railway line sit the wards of Mile End and Highwoods, which are divided from one another by Highwoods Country Park. Mile End, where the hospital is located, is extremely middle class. At a local level it's strongly Lib Dem, but there was a surprise Conservative victory here in the 2015 local elections which must indicate that they carried the ward that year. As general elections re-orientate around a Labour/Conservative contest, Although the LDs have won Mile End continuously since 2007 and took 61% of the vote in 2023, I can only assume that will have continued.
Highwoods proper (i.e. the area around the big Tesco’s) very likely votes similarly, but the last quarter century has seen a lot of new housing built in the north of the ward, much of which is populated by young families. My assumption is that it still votes Conservative by a decent margin, but rather less than that in Mile End. Then again, Mile End also has a lot of new housing, but I don't know very much about what it's like so I can't speculate about its electoral behaviour. However it certainly has attracted a lot in professional and managerial work, which accounted for 48% in Mile End South MSOA in the 2021 census, and 47% in Mile End North, Braiswick & Kingswood Heath. These are the highest in the city, just ahead of the Lexden and Prettygate areas, which are around 43% on this indicator. Highwood is lower down the socio–economic scale, at 36% prof/man just above the Colchester average of 34%.
Finally, in the west of town we have the wards of Prettygate and Lexden & Braiswick (although the bulk of the electorate of the latter ward lives in neither of those two areas, but is instead located in villages outside Colchester.) Both areas are solidly and traditionally middle-class and owner occupied (Prettygate 84% so in 2021 and Lexden 77%), and have been held by Conservatives locally for at least twenty years.
In December 2019, Colchester’s electorate was 82,625, which is outside the 5% tolerance allowed by the latest Boundary Commission for England, so a section of the seat had to be removed. The initial proposals suggested that this should be the Prettygate ward, but after a very large number of objections were raised in the public consultation process, the revised and final reports have instead resulted in the removal of the whole of the Old Heath & The Hythe ward, even though it too has strong links with the town, as the two named communities are clearly part of Colchester’s built up area. On the other hand the ward also extends south to Rowhedge, which is right next to Wivenhoe, already in the Harwich seat, along with the campus of the University of Essex, which is physically nearby OId Heath, though separated by the River Colne. As with the Prettygate suggestion, this territory will be transferred to the Harwich & North Essex division. The Lexden & Braiswick ward will remain split between the two constituencies, with around 4,400 electors placed in Harwich & North Essex and just under 3,000 in Colchester. Finally, some minor tidying up is done in the boundaries to make sure that is the only split ward.
The second version of the boundary changes in this most recent cycle was decidedly less favourable to Labour’s chances than the first, as while Prettygate in the west was one of the more Tory parts of Colchester (solidly since 2004, though the Lib Dems were just 22 votes behind in May 2023), Old Heath & The Hythe in the south has elected no one but Labour since 2002. Overall the difference was something of the order of a 10% swing to Labour now being needed, rather than 9% as on the actual December 2019 result.
Colchester’s demographic statistics (on the new boundaries, thanks to bjornhattan) fit with it being a marginal constituency. Its age profile is somewhat younger than average, and over 10% are full time students, which is higher than Harwich & North Essex despite the Essex University campus being in that seat – many living in housing in Colchester itself, especially in Greenstead MSOA (37% student in 2021), and historically Essex University (as well as being a strongpoint for psephology, with Ivor Crewe having risen to be Vice Chancellor) has seen radical left wing activity, considerably dampened nowadays. The owner occupied proportion is lower than average, especially outside big cities. This is mainly due to a high private rented housing proportion of 26.7%, which rises to 42.5% in Central Colchester MSOA and 36% in Mile End South. The occupational class figures are close to the national average, and there are significant ethnic minority communities, with Asians 7% of the whole and 13% in Mile End South, and Black residents 4.3% overall and 9% in Greenstead.
Colchester was a key Labour target at a 2024 general election. Its demographic profile said it was a possible gain. So did its recent local government election results, with the Conservatives only polling 24% within the seat in May 2023, though quite a lot of the high Liberal Democrat share (34%) would have to be prepared to switch to Labour, which the 2017 and 2019 Westminster results suggested they might; the days of Bob Russell seem a long time ago now. Nevertheless Labour had only ever won Colchester once, in 1945, so they had to do better than in 1966 or 1997. Therefore an easy win by over 8,000 in July 2024 was a genuine achievement, and addition to the long history of dramatic events in this ancient community.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 14.3% 458/575
Owner occupied 57.7% 427/575
Private rented 26.7% 93/575
Social rented 15.6% 267/575
White 83.5% 374/575
Black 4.3% 149/575
Asian 6.8% 223/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 253/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.0% 305/575
Degree level 33.3% 250/575
No qualifications 15.1% 415/575
. Students 10.2% 94/650
General Election 2024: Colchester
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Pam Cox 18,804 41.9 +11.8
Conservative James Cracknell 10,554 23.5 −28.8
Reform UK Terence Longstaff[24] 6,664 14.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Martin Goss[25] 6,393 14.2 −0.5
Green Sara Ruth[26] 2,414 5.4 +2.5
Climate James Rolfe[27] 74 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 8,250 18.4 N/A
Turnout 44,903 57.0 –6.8
Registered electors 78,662
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 20.3 C to Lab
General election 2019: Colchester
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Will Quince 26,917 50.4 +4.5
Labour Tina McKay 17,494 32.8 −2.5
Liberal Democrats Martin Goss 7,432 13.9 −3.1
Green Mark Goacher 1,530 2.9 +1.4
C Majority 9,423 17.7 +7.0
2019 electorate 82,625
Turnout 53,373 64.6 −2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Colchester consists of
91.0% of Colchester
0.7% of Harwich & North Essex
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_060_Colchester_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 25693 | 52.3% |
| Lab | 14753 | 30.1% |
| LD | 7209 | 14.7% |
| Grn | 1436 | 2.9% |
| Majority | 10940 | 22.3% |
