Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Nov 25, 2023 13:44:40 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Andrew_S, and 2 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2023 13:44:40 GMT
This constituency has had a variety of names, embellishments to different extents on the core of ‘Brecon and Radnor’, and a wide variety of political outcomes, partly but by no means entirely due to the details of boundary changes.
In essence, the two counties of Brecon (or Brecknock) and the smaller Radnor in mid Wales were first paired for parliamentary purposes in 1918. In its first 20 years the seat was won by the party Conservative party (1924, 1931), Labour (1929) and Liberals in a range of guises (straight, Coalition, National in 1923, 1921 and 1922 respectively) as well as plain Coalition in 1935. Then in an outbreak of stability Labour held the seat continuously from a byelection in the shadow of war on 1 August 1939 all the way till 1979. Since then Labour has not returned to the winner’s circle, but there have been five wins each for Tories and Liberal (Democrats) in general elections, plus two more for the latter in byelections in 1985 and 2019 (coincidentally again on 1 August), caused by death and disgrace. The current incumbent is Conservative Fay Jones, who regained Brecon and Radnorshire by a comfortable looking 7,000 majority in December 2019. Labour, who had held this eat for a 40 year stretch, were reduced t a share of less than 10%.
To some extent Labour had been adversely affected by boundary changes in 1983, when a very working class section of the South Welsh valleys around Brynmawr was removed to the new Blaenau Gwent constituency, where it was very much at home with the majority of the Ebbw Vale seat that had been represented by both Aneurin Bevan and Michael Foot, awe well as the uppermost portion f super-safe Labour Abertillery. However an element of the ‘valleys’ still remained in Brecon & Radnor’s south western corner: Ystradgynlais in the upper Tawe valley, which was actually the largest town in the whole seat with it population of around 9,000, and which was historically known for coal mining (Gurnos, Doamnd and Ystradgynlais collieries) and ironworks then tinplate (the Ynyscedwyn complex).
Now in the latest, 2023, round of boundary changes this section is going to be strengthened and extended, in fact by the addition if more population than was in Brynmawr, making the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe demographically and theoretically better for Labour than it has ever been. Whether this will translate into actual votes may well be another matter. But the need to increase the electorate of Welsh constituencies fairly dramatically to equalise representation with the other three nations in the United Kingdom meant that the electorate of Brecon and Radnorshire, just 55,490 in December 2019, had to be increased by around 20,000. This has been enacted by adding almost a third of the Neath constituency. This is the part in the Tawe valley approaching YstradgynlaI, including the communities of Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen, Ystalyfera, Godre’r Graig, Cilmaengwyn, Ynysmeudwy. Alltmen, Trebanos and Pontardawe, the last named being a town of 7,000 souls – in the Boundary Commission report ten (small) wards of Neath Port Talbot county borough in the former (West) Glamorgan county. As the names may imply, plenty of people here speak Welsh – fewer n Pontardawe MSOA where 62% had no skills in Welsh according to the 2021 census, but in the other two MSOAs in the added ‘Cwm Tawe’ section this figure was only half – slightly over that in Ystradgynlais but a minority in Ystalyfera & Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen.
These ten wards were somewhat compacted in boundary changes before the most recent Neath Port Talbot elections in May 2022, but in the Cwm Tawe bloc the score was Plaid Cymru 6, Labour 3 – with no Liberal Democrats or Conservative candidates at all. This epitomises why the new additions will not fit well into the two party Tory – Lib Dem pattern of competition that has pertained in Brecon & Radnor since the 1980s. Turning to the characteristics of what will still be the bulk of the seat, the two counties overall have an exceptionally high proportion not only of those employed in agriculture and forestry - the third highest in the UK in 2011 – but of small employers and especially self-employed and own account workers; in fact the highest of any seat. On the new boundaries the seat slips out of the top 20 for residents aged over 65, though still well above average. Similarly the revisions push the seat out of the top twenty with the most housing owner outright (without need of a mortgage), but only just. It becomes even more overwhelmingly white in ethnicity. On class and educational variables Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe is very close to the England and Wales average.
However, importantly for the internal political balance of the constituency, the majority of the population in Brecon and Radnor cannot speak Welsh, which is a fatal blow for Plaid Cymru’s chances. A historically strong tradition of Independents candidature and success at local elations level makes it very hard to assess the distribution of strength between Liberal Democrat and Conservative. However it has been said locally that the Tories are overall stronger in the former county of Radnorshire (Llandrindod Wells, Rhayader, Presteigne, and Knighton as well as the tiny New Radnor and even more vestigial Old Radnor). Historically this was the case when the two counties had separate representation, and may be to do with a stronger Nonconformist tradition in Brecknock compared with the somewhat more Anglicised Radnor; but that is more than a century ago now. This divide seems more true in the villages and countryside, which are here very English speaking as well, than in the small towns. Rhayader has had the strongest Liberal (Democrat) run of success and in the most recent Powys council elections in May 2022 their candidate secured 89% of the vote, admittedly in a straight fight against an Independent. Presteigne too has often shown favour for them and even Labour in the past, though in 2022 a popular Independent took 72% of the vote; the south east part of Presteigne, down Joe Deakins Road, is surprisingly industrial and working class The spa town of Llandrindod Wells has had a lower independent rate of success than most and Conservatives have won here, taking the North electoral division as recently as 2017; but in 2022 the Lib Dems won both the redrawn, enlarged wards in the town easily.
In the larger Breconshire section the picture is scarcely much clearer. Labour does definitely have a presence in Brecon town itself, and in 2022 took all four county council seats, in East and West electoral divisions, commandingly. Nearly a quarter of all housing in Brecon town is social rented (22.6%), especially in its western half, and within that in its north western quadrant. This is higher than anywhere else in the constituency, even Ystradgynlais & Tawe Uchaf ('uppermost Tawe') - 18% - or, of the incoming areas, Pontardawe (16%) or Ystalyfera/Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen (19%). The Liberal Democrats do well locally in the eastern half of historic Breconshire: Bronllys and Felin-fach, Talgarth, Gwernyfed rural area, and book-filled Hay-on-Wye were all won in May 2022; and in the south eastern corner of the seat they massively retained the two seats in the electoral division of Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower, in a double byelection as recently as 9 November 2023. Further west, in 2022 the Conservatives won the rural Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llandew and Maescar & Llywel centred on Sennybridge at the confluence of the rivers Senni and Usk, though the LDs won Talybont-on-Usk. Independents took the electoral divisions covering the small spa town of Builth and the tiny spa towns of Llangammarch Wells and Llanwrtyd Wells - whose Urban District was the smallest local authority in Wales before the 1970s reforms, with its population of less than 1,000 – indeed it is sometimes claimed as the smallest town in Britain, for which there is slightly less competition than the innumerable places claiming ti be the largest village.
From spa towns to examining valleys, from the valleys of the Usk and the Wye and the Tawe to the rugged Brecon Beacons (or Bannau Brycheiniog) mountains beloved of those attempting the rigours of Duke of Edinburgh Award or Army exercises, this extensive constituency displays variety and complexity. It is noted as a tough political battleground as well and is notoriously difficult to parse. One of the few predictable things was that after their victory in the double council byelection at Crickhowell the Liberal Democrats claimed they were on track to regain (again) the Brecon and Radnor based parliamentary constituency.
This is hard for neutrals to confirm or deny, as the evidence is think in local elections, but among the crumbs we have are that in May 2021 the Conservatives gained the similar, though not identical, Brecon and Radnorshire Senedd seat in May 2021 with a majority of 3,820 (12%), less than December 2019 but with a Labour share up to 15.5%. Another imponderable question is whether the boundary changes, which will undoubtedly increase the Labour notional vote rather than reducing the Tory notional lead, will indeed hurt the Lib Dems - or help them if ex-Neath Labour voters see they need to act tactically to remove the Westminster Conservative government. Finally it might be pointed out that the only time the Liberal Democrats have ever gained the Brecon and Radnor seat without need of a byelection was in 1997 – when Labour won the general election in a landslide, but their vote here went up by only 0.3%. Maybe that is a harbinger if what might happen in 2024 – though maybe it isn’t.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.4% 29/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 201/575
Owned outright 46.5% 21/575
Private rented 16.5% 360/575
Social rented 14.3% 320/575
White 97.4% 42/575
Black 0.2% 543/575
Asian 1.1% 500/575
Managerial & professional 30.4% 270/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 278/575
Degree level 32.2% 285/573
No qualifications 19.0% 222/573
Students 4.8% 428/575
General Election 2019: Brecon and Radnorshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Fay Jones 21,958 53.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds 14,827 35.9 +6.8
Labour Tomos Davies 3,944 9.5 −8.2
Monster Raving Loony Lady Lily the Pink 345 0.8
Christian Jeff Green 245 0.6
C Majority 7,131 17.2 −2.3
Turnout 41,319 74.5 -2.4
Registered electors 55,490
Conservative hold (compared with 2017)
Swing 1.1 C to LD 2017-2019
Conservative gain from LD (compared with August 2019 byelection)
Boundary Changes
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe consists of
100% of Brecon and Radnorshire
30.4% of Neath
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
In essence, the two counties of Brecon (or Brecknock) and the smaller Radnor in mid Wales were first paired for parliamentary purposes in 1918. In its first 20 years the seat was won by the party Conservative party (1924, 1931), Labour (1929) and Liberals in a range of guises (straight, Coalition, National in 1923, 1921 and 1922 respectively) as well as plain Coalition in 1935. Then in an outbreak of stability Labour held the seat continuously from a byelection in the shadow of war on 1 August 1939 all the way till 1979. Since then Labour has not returned to the winner’s circle, but there have been five wins each for Tories and Liberal (Democrats) in general elections, plus two more for the latter in byelections in 1985 and 2019 (coincidentally again on 1 August), caused by death and disgrace. The current incumbent is Conservative Fay Jones, who regained Brecon and Radnorshire by a comfortable looking 7,000 majority in December 2019. Labour, who had held this eat for a 40 year stretch, were reduced t a share of less than 10%.
To some extent Labour had been adversely affected by boundary changes in 1983, when a very working class section of the South Welsh valleys around Brynmawr was removed to the new Blaenau Gwent constituency, where it was very much at home with the majority of the Ebbw Vale seat that had been represented by both Aneurin Bevan and Michael Foot, awe well as the uppermost portion f super-safe Labour Abertillery. However an element of the ‘valleys’ still remained in Brecon & Radnor’s south western corner: Ystradgynlais in the upper Tawe valley, which was actually the largest town in the whole seat with it population of around 9,000, and which was historically known for coal mining (Gurnos, Doamnd and Ystradgynlais collieries) and ironworks then tinplate (the Ynyscedwyn complex).
Now in the latest, 2023, round of boundary changes this section is going to be strengthened and extended, in fact by the addition if more population than was in Brynmawr, making the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe demographically and theoretically better for Labour than it has ever been. Whether this will translate into actual votes may well be another matter. But the need to increase the electorate of Welsh constituencies fairly dramatically to equalise representation with the other three nations in the United Kingdom meant that the electorate of Brecon and Radnorshire, just 55,490 in December 2019, had to be increased by around 20,000. This has been enacted by adding almost a third of the Neath constituency. This is the part in the Tawe valley approaching YstradgynlaI, including the communities of Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen, Ystalyfera, Godre’r Graig, Cilmaengwyn, Ynysmeudwy. Alltmen, Trebanos and Pontardawe, the last named being a town of 7,000 souls – in the Boundary Commission report ten (small) wards of Neath Port Talbot county borough in the former (West) Glamorgan county. As the names may imply, plenty of people here speak Welsh – fewer n Pontardawe MSOA where 62% had no skills in Welsh according to the 2021 census, but in the other two MSOAs in the added ‘Cwm Tawe’ section this figure was only half – slightly over that in Ystradgynlais but a minority in Ystalyfera & Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen.
These ten wards were somewhat compacted in boundary changes before the most recent Neath Port Talbot elections in May 2022, but in the Cwm Tawe bloc the score was Plaid Cymru 6, Labour 3 – with no Liberal Democrats or Conservative candidates at all. This epitomises why the new additions will not fit well into the two party Tory – Lib Dem pattern of competition that has pertained in Brecon & Radnor since the 1980s. Turning to the characteristics of what will still be the bulk of the seat, the two counties overall have an exceptionally high proportion not only of those employed in agriculture and forestry - the third highest in the UK in 2011 – but of small employers and especially self-employed and own account workers; in fact the highest of any seat. On the new boundaries the seat slips out of the top 20 for residents aged over 65, though still well above average. Similarly the revisions push the seat out of the top twenty with the most housing owner outright (without need of a mortgage), but only just. It becomes even more overwhelmingly white in ethnicity. On class and educational variables Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe is very close to the England and Wales average.
However, importantly for the internal political balance of the constituency, the majority of the population in Brecon and Radnor cannot speak Welsh, which is a fatal blow for Plaid Cymru’s chances. A historically strong tradition of Independents candidature and success at local elations level makes it very hard to assess the distribution of strength between Liberal Democrat and Conservative. However it has been said locally that the Tories are overall stronger in the former county of Radnorshire (Llandrindod Wells, Rhayader, Presteigne, and Knighton as well as the tiny New Radnor and even more vestigial Old Radnor). Historically this was the case when the two counties had separate representation, and may be to do with a stronger Nonconformist tradition in Brecknock compared with the somewhat more Anglicised Radnor; but that is more than a century ago now. This divide seems more true in the villages and countryside, which are here very English speaking as well, than in the small towns. Rhayader has had the strongest Liberal (Democrat) run of success and in the most recent Powys council elections in May 2022 their candidate secured 89% of the vote, admittedly in a straight fight against an Independent. Presteigne too has often shown favour for them and even Labour in the past, though in 2022 a popular Independent took 72% of the vote; the south east part of Presteigne, down Joe Deakins Road, is surprisingly industrial and working class The spa town of Llandrindod Wells has had a lower independent rate of success than most and Conservatives have won here, taking the North electoral division as recently as 2017; but in 2022 the Lib Dems won both the redrawn, enlarged wards in the town easily.
In the larger Breconshire section the picture is scarcely much clearer. Labour does definitely have a presence in Brecon town itself, and in 2022 took all four county council seats, in East and West electoral divisions, commandingly. Nearly a quarter of all housing in Brecon town is social rented (22.6%), especially in its western half, and within that in its north western quadrant. This is higher than anywhere else in the constituency, even Ystradgynlais & Tawe Uchaf ('uppermost Tawe') - 18% - or, of the incoming areas, Pontardawe (16%) or Ystalyfera/Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen (19%). The Liberal Democrats do well locally in the eastern half of historic Breconshire: Bronllys and Felin-fach, Talgarth, Gwernyfed rural area, and book-filled Hay-on-Wye were all won in May 2022; and in the south eastern corner of the seat they massively retained the two seats in the electoral division of Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower, in a double byelection as recently as 9 November 2023. Further west, in 2022 the Conservatives won the rural Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llandew and Maescar & Llywel centred on Sennybridge at the confluence of the rivers Senni and Usk, though the LDs won Talybont-on-Usk. Independents took the electoral divisions covering the small spa town of Builth and the tiny spa towns of Llangammarch Wells and Llanwrtyd Wells - whose Urban District was the smallest local authority in Wales before the 1970s reforms, with its population of less than 1,000 – indeed it is sometimes claimed as the smallest town in Britain, for which there is slightly less competition than the innumerable places claiming ti be the largest village.
From spa towns to examining valleys, from the valleys of the Usk and the Wye and the Tawe to the rugged Brecon Beacons (or Bannau Brycheiniog) mountains beloved of those attempting the rigours of Duke of Edinburgh Award or Army exercises, this extensive constituency displays variety and complexity. It is noted as a tough political battleground as well and is notoriously difficult to parse. One of the few predictable things was that after their victory in the double council byelection at Crickhowell the Liberal Democrats claimed they were on track to regain (again) the Brecon and Radnor based parliamentary constituency.
This is hard for neutrals to confirm or deny, as the evidence is think in local elections, but among the crumbs we have are that in May 2021 the Conservatives gained the similar, though not identical, Brecon and Radnorshire Senedd seat in May 2021 with a majority of 3,820 (12%), less than December 2019 but with a Labour share up to 15.5%. Another imponderable question is whether the boundary changes, which will undoubtedly increase the Labour notional vote rather than reducing the Tory notional lead, will indeed hurt the Lib Dems - or help them if ex-Neath Labour voters see they need to act tactically to remove the Westminster Conservative government. Finally it might be pointed out that the only time the Liberal Democrats have ever gained the Brecon and Radnor seat without need of a byelection was in 1997 – when Labour won the general election in a landslide, but their vote here went up by only 0.3%. Maybe that is a harbinger if what might happen in 2024 – though maybe it isn’t.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.4% 29/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 201/575
Owned outright 46.5% 21/575
Private rented 16.5% 360/575
Social rented 14.3% 320/575
White 97.4% 42/575
Black 0.2% 543/575
Asian 1.1% 500/575
Managerial & professional 30.4% 270/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 278/575
Degree level 32.2% 285/573
No qualifications 19.0% 222/573
Students 4.8% 428/575
General Election 2019: Brecon and Radnorshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Fay Jones 21,958 53.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds 14,827 35.9 +6.8
Labour Tomos Davies 3,944 9.5 −8.2
Monster Raving Loony Lady Lily the Pink 345 0.8
Christian Jeff Green 245 0.6
C Majority 7,131 17.2 −2.3
Turnout 41,319 74.5 -2.4
Registered electors 55,490
Conservative hold (compared with 2017)
Swing 1.1 C to LD 2017-2019
Conservative gain from LD (compared with August 2019 byelection)
Boundary Changes
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe consists of
100% of Brecon and Radnorshire
30.4% of Neath
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 24368 | 46.6% |
| LD | 15227 | 29.2% |
| Lab | 9164 | 17.5% |
| Plaid Cymru | 1692 | 3.2% |
| Brexit | 1450 | 1.8% |
| Green | 221 | 0.4% |
| Oths | 590 | 1.1% |
| Majority | 9091 | 17.4% |
