Liz Kendall elected Labour Leader

[willpower3]

As a sequel to the Abbott thread, what-if a woman on the other end of the party has been elected leader. This would have been 2015, when she stood. 

The following front bench would look electable to many. It might even win seats in Northern Ireland (despite not actually standing any candidates), Orkney and Shetland and Tunbridge Wells. 

- Leader of the Opposition: Liz Kendall
- Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer: Chuka Umunna
- Shadow Foreign Secretary: Lord Mandelson 
- Shadow Home Secretary: Pat McFadden 
- Shadow Defence Secretary: Dan Jarvis
- Shadow Health Secretary: Tristram Hunt
- Shadow Education Secretary: Rachel Reeves
- Shadow Business Secretary: Ben Bradshaw 
- Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary: Stephen Kinnock
- Shadow Justice Secretary: Chris Leslie
- Shadow Environment Secretary: Mary Creagh
- Shadow Transport Secretary: Emma Reynolds
- Shadow Communities Secretary: Gloria De Piero
- Shadow Culture Secretary: Michael Dugher
- Shadow International Development Secretary: Luciana Berger 
- Shadow Leader of the House of Commons: Harriet Harman 
- Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Shabana Mahmood
- Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office: Stella Creasy
- Shadow Chief Whip: Rosie Winterton
- Shadow Attorney General: Keir Starmer

[mattbewilson]

The registered supporters worked as they're supposed to do recruiting ordinary labour voters to outweigh the political motivated labour membership. Like the open primaries in the US delivering for Hillary over Bernie, the registered supporters deliver for Liz Kendall. Registered supporters are championed.

Liz Kendall's first test is Osborne's austerity lock. This will prevent all future governments from deficit spending. Liz Kendall whips MPs to vote in favour and there is a small rebellion. Dozen lefties.

Then the vote on Syria. Again a vote in favour. Bigger rebellion around 30 MPs at least vote against.

SNPs trident vote. Labour vote against. Small rebellion. Dozen lefties and MPs with history opposing trident.

Jihadi John is killed. Liz Kendall endorses the shoot to kill policy. Into the new year.

Small reshuffle. Sacked some rebel ministers who were uncomfortable with see Syria vote.

Naz Shah gets in trouble for Israel post. Naz is expelled from the parliamentary party. Videos emerge of Ken being shouted at by Labour MP for supporting Naz. Ken expelled.

Local elections. SNP romp home overshadowing the English locals. Ukip also doing well in run up to the EU ref.

Labour's unashamedly pro EU stance drives turn out amongst remainers but labour brexitiers feel their views on immigration are being ignored.

Liz Kendall calls for a second referendum.

Cameron steps down and May becomes PM making a direct appeal to brexit labour voters in the north with her patrician conservativism. May does well amongst working class voters with 50% approval.

Labour are whipped to oppose triggering article 50. Big rebellion. At least 50 labour MPs vote against the party whip. Several resignations from the front bench.

The attacks in Manchester and London are condemned by Liz Kendall. Skripal poisoning receives equal condemnation. Liz Kendall endorses May's decision to bomb a Syrian chemicals facility in Syria

Labour vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal. Blow to May first real damage to her. March date for brexit is missed. Tories start losing support but so do labour. Brexit party set up earlier in the year and led by farage win the European elections. Lots of negative press for labour and knives out.

May reaches out to Liz Kendall but a deal can't be done.

May finally squeaks her brexit deal over the line in time for the new year with changes to cu in NI and help from labour MPs. Tories get a bounce in the polls.

May goes to the country. Turns out she's a poor media performer. But Liz Kendall is too. Final result Tories are in the mid thirties. Labour low thirties. Hung parliament. Tories largest party

[The Bishop]

There is no realistic scenario where a candidate who got 4.5% in our timeline actually wins the Labour leadership in 2015.

With one possible intriguing twist, what if Chuka Umunna doesn't withdraw almost straight away? He would surely have been the candidate targeting the ultra-Blairite vote in that scenario, leaving Kendall the option of being more of a "compromise" - though still right leaning - option as she indeed hinted at in the first few days after the GE. There were themes in her actual campaign - eg devolution and support for unions - which would have been compatible with a more "Labour mainstream" approach.

[mattbewilson]

Nov 24, 2023 13:04:23 GMT The Bishop said:

There is no realistic scenario where a candidate who got 4.5% in our timeline actually wins the Labour leadership in 2015.

With one possible intriguing twist, what if Chuka Umunna doesn't withdraw almost straight away? He would surely have been the candidate targeting the ultra-Blairite vote in that scenario, leaving Kendall the option of being more of a "compromise" - though still right leaning - option as she indeed hinted at in the first few days after the GE. There were themes in her actual campaign - eg devolution and support for unions - which would have been compatible with a more "Labour mainstream" approach.

Chukka would clearly have been in front runner early on. Nominations may have curbed that if Andy started racking up the nominations. It'll have been pretty fatal if Yvette's nominations overtook chukka as well

[ricmk]

Enjoying mattbewilson working everything through, but surely the EU Referendum is a clear win for Remain under a Kendall leadership?
None of the disinterest, lack of clarity and inability to make the case that we saw under Corbyn.

[The Bishop]

Tbh that doesn't follow at all, Corbyn's "role" in losing the referendum is vastly overstated. He also said one thing - the "7 out of 10" comment - that chimed far better with the people Remain needed to win over than anything in their utterly dismal and complacent official campaign.

Even leaving that aside, Cameron and Osborne's mis-steps probably meant at least 10 votes for leave for every one supposedly lost by Jezza.

[mattbewilson]

I agree with Bish. I'm not sure an overt remain stance would have helped significantly. As I address in my post. Maybe it helps motivate labour remainers but it might alienate labour leavers who might find an overt remain position as out of touch with their concerns

[greenchristian]

Labour being visibly remain, rather than somewhat half-heartedly remain could have significantly changed the way the campaign turned out. What I saw of the mainstream media coverage made the whole thing look primarily like a fight between two factions of the Conservative Party (reflecting the reason the referendum happened in the first place). A more actively engaged Labour leadership might have made the campaign come across as less of a "Dave vs Boris" fight and more of a a "UKIP plus some Tories vs everyone else" fight. And that could plausibly have moved the vote to something like 52 Remain to 48 Leave. Which, according to the standards of the Brexiteers, is indisputably a clear win.

[mattbewilson]

Nov 28, 2023 20:33:14 GMT greenchristian said:

Labour being visibly remain, rather than somewhat half-heartedly remain could have significantly changed the way the campaign turned out. What I saw of the mainstream media coverage made the whole thing look primarily like a fight between two factions of the Conservative Party (reflecting the reason the referendum happened in the first place). A more actively engaged Labour leadership might have made the campaign come across as less of a "Dave vs Boris" fight and more of a a "UKIP plus some Tories vs everyone else" fight. And that could plausibly have moved the vote to something like 52 Remain to 48 Leave. Which, according to the standards of the Brexiteers, is indisputably a clear win.

it's impossible to know but from my experience there really was no desire from rank and file members for an all out remain campaign. I know that isn't true across the board as I remember seeing photos from labour campaign days plastered with european flags.

But almost all the canvassing I did most members didn't bother asking for data on the referendum. I actually remember canvassing with someone from the Labour IN campaign and they were the only one taking data on the referendum question.

Even when members did ask, the priority was the local elections. I suspect most canvassing ceased after the local elections. I remember councillor talking up the campaign in a meeting only to say he wouldn't be campaigning to a select few members in the pub afterwards.

This illusion that there was a passionate campaign that only needed to be released by the party is just an illusion. From my experience, and I know its not universal, was the most passionate about the campaign did less than the anyone else.

[dundas]

Nov 28, 2023 10:23:38 GMT ricmk said:

Enjoying mattbewilson working everything through, but surely the EU Referendum is a clear win for Remain under a Kendall leadership?
None of the disinterest, lack of clarity and inability to make the case that we saw under Corbyn.

If Jezza is narrowly defeated in the Labour contest in this contest, he could end up endorsing the Lexit position with his new found name recognition. A bigger victory for Brexit looks likely under those circumstances.