Post by Robert Waller on Nov 21, 2023 23:35:03 GMT
The first paragraph on boundary changes is taken from the contributions of Pete Whitehead on the previous sub-board
This seat has over 90,000 voters on current boundaries and is pared down significantly losing over 20,000 voters net. The strongly Labour Central Milton Keynes ward is removed along with more Conservative Broughton, Campbell Park and part of Monkston. In return the part of Bradwell not already in the seat is added along with the marginal Stony Stratford. Despite the large number of voters being moved the overall effect is net neutral, perhaps making it ever so slightly safer for the Conservatives.
The revised plans do not differ from the initial proposals here except that originally it was planned to rename the seat 'Newport Pagnell' but on the revised plans the current name is retained. As this implies, this has been the Milton Keynes seat which has a higher proportion of older communities that pre-dated the development of the ‘new city’ in north Buckinghamshire than the South division. Even before the most recent boundary changes, Milton Keynes North extended not only to Newport Pagnell, recorded as a market town in Domesday Book, but stretched through miles of countryside including such rustic villages as Stoke Goldington, Weston Underwood and Newton Blossomville, and the small town of Olney founded in Roman times known for its pancake race since 1445. The seat extends all the way to the tip, or top, of Buckinghamshire on a latitude level with the southern extremity of Northampton.
Two other older communities are also included within the North seat. Already there, Wolverton became known as a railway town and was always an aberration in Buckinghamshire, even before it was swallowed up by the new city of Milton Keynes in the 1970s. Its Labour voting habits were easily identifiable, for example in the Buckinghamshire county council election of 1977, when it elected the solitary, lone Labour councillor compared with a phalanx of 62 Conservatives. Old Wolverton’s grid of terraced housing (which looks as if it could be in a northern industrial city) was to be joined by new town neighbourhoods like Wolverton Stacey Bushes and Wolverton Mill, which give the impression very much of a different century. Also, now to be added from the South seat is Stony Stratford (though not Old Stratford, which is in South Northamptonshire) in the north western corner of the conurbation, another ancient town, known for example of being the site of the interception of the boy-king Edward V in April 1483.
The significant boundary changes are reflected in considerable changes in the demographic statistics for the North seat. Compared with the previous lines, also on the 2021 census figures, its owner occupation rate has increased by 7% from 59.8% to 66.8%, which lifts it up the rank order of seats in England and Wales on this criterion no fewer than 141 places - from well below average to above the average. Correspondingly, the private rented housing rank drops 131 places, the social rented is down by 78 places. The percentage of white residents has been increased by over 7%. Finally, the age profile has become distinctly older and there are now over 17% aged 65 plus; comparing with the rank order in 2011, North is up 226 places among constituencies on this variable.
There are still major variations within the new Milton Keynes North seat within these overall figures. The northern rural areas round Olney have a high proportion of professional and managerial workers, all over 40% and peaking in the 2021 census at over 47% in Olney & Lavendon MSOA. Within the built up area of MK the highest is 39.9% in Newport Pagnell South, which includes new housing such as at Tickford End, but there are over 39% in Stony Stratford. By far the lowest is 17% in Stacey Bushes & Fullers Slade, where the new developments are substantially more working class even than the older parts of Wolverton (though Wolverton Mill is much more upmarket in socio-economic terms than the old town). Other new (some very new) developments that are very middle class are Oakridge Park on the edge of the built up area between Wolverton and Newport Pagnell and Giffard Park. The other ward which has a relatively high proportion of people in routine and semi-routine jobs is Stantonbury. The highest ethnic minority presence is in Wolverton & New Bardwell MSOA (15% Asian) and Stantonbury & Bradville (12% Black).
The new Milton Keynes North is a key target for Labour, its notional result for 2019 having exactly the sort of Conservative lead that they will need to overcome in order to become the largest party. They will also be confident. Not only do many months of national opinion poll lead suggest Labour should gain North comfortably, but the most recent local election results certainly offer encouragement. Not only did Labour hold Wolverton, a ward they have won ever since 1973 with the single exception of a Lib Dem victory in 2008, and gained Stantonbury from the Tories with an 18% lead, but they won the Stony Stratford ward which has been switched from Milton Keynes South. Most surprisingly, Labour also gained the large ward of Olney, rural, middle class and stretching right up to the Northamptonshire border. Labour had never won Olney before, at least not in the previous 50 years.
The only ward the Conservatives held on to in May 2023 was Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope, which includes the north western rural part of the seat. The Liberal Democrats retained the other two wards, Newport Pagnell South and Bradwell, at the time only 60% in the North seat but wholly to be included under the new boundaries. These two LD wards are distinctly different in socio-economic character. They both include large sections of new housing development, but while Newport Pagnell South contains middle class neighbourhoods like Giffard Park and Tickford End, Bradwell stretches as far as Wolverton Stacey Bushes, and also takes in Wymbush and Heelands, all predominantly working class census OAs, with relatively high ethnic minority percentages, Wymbush being over 20% Asian and Heelands as much as 17% Black.
Overall Labour polled 38.5% within the new boundaries, the Tories 33.6% and the Liberal Democrats 21.6%, which would seem eminently squeezable given that the LDs only reached 8.0% in North in the December 2019 general election. That on its new lines North only contained the northernmost tier of ‘new town MK’, and some older towns and a swathe of rolling affluent countryside does not seem to present a problem, taking into account the May 2023 local election results in these wards. In some ways Milton Keynes North is now rather typical of modern England as a whole, much more so than Milton Keynes Central, for example, and it will be a very suitable litmus test of their ability to secure a broad enough appeal to win the next general election.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 17.4% 359/575
Owner occupied 66.8% 268/575
Private rented 18.4% 275/575
Social rented 14.8% 295/575
White 79.9% 410/575
Black 6.1% 119/575
Asian 9.0% 171/575
Managerial & professional 38.1% 148/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.9% 344/575
Degree level 35.3% 197/575
No qualifications 15.4% 410/575
Students 5.7% 275/575
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Everitt 30,938 49.5 +2.0
Labour Charlynne Pullen 24,683 39.5 −5.0
Liberal Democrats Aisha Mir 4,991 8.0 +4.1
Green Catherine Rose 1,931 3.1 +1.4
C Majority 6,255 10.0 +7.0
2019 electorate 91,535
Turnout 62,543 68.3 −3.5
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Milton Keynes North consists of
62.3% of Milton Keynes North
14.0% of Milton Keynes North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_341_Milton%20Keynes%20North_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
This seat has over 90,000 voters on current boundaries and is pared down significantly losing over 20,000 voters net. The strongly Labour Central Milton Keynes ward is removed along with more Conservative Broughton, Campbell Park and part of Monkston. In return the part of Bradwell not already in the seat is added along with the marginal Stony Stratford. Despite the large number of voters being moved the overall effect is net neutral, perhaps making it ever so slightly safer for the Conservatives.
The revised plans do not differ from the initial proposals here except that originally it was planned to rename the seat 'Newport Pagnell' but on the revised plans the current name is retained. As this implies, this has been the Milton Keynes seat which has a higher proportion of older communities that pre-dated the development of the ‘new city’ in north Buckinghamshire than the South division. Even before the most recent boundary changes, Milton Keynes North extended not only to Newport Pagnell, recorded as a market town in Domesday Book, but stretched through miles of countryside including such rustic villages as Stoke Goldington, Weston Underwood and Newton Blossomville, and the small town of Olney founded in Roman times known for its pancake race since 1445. The seat extends all the way to the tip, or top, of Buckinghamshire on a latitude level with the southern extremity of Northampton.
Two other older communities are also included within the North seat. Already there, Wolverton became known as a railway town and was always an aberration in Buckinghamshire, even before it was swallowed up by the new city of Milton Keynes in the 1970s. Its Labour voting habits were easily identifiable, for example in the Buckinghamshire county council election of 1977, when it elected the solitary, lone Labour councillor compared with a phalanx of 62 Conservatives. Old Wolverton’s grid of terraced housing (which looks as if it could be in a northern industrial city) was to be joined by new town neighbourhoods like Wolverton Stacey Bushes and Wolverton Mill, which give the impression very much of a different century. Also, now to be added from the South seat is Stony Stratford (though not Old Stratford, which is in South Northamptonshire) in the north western corner of the conurbation, another ancient town, known for example of being the site of the interception of the boy-king Edward V in April 1483.
The significant boundary changes are reflected in considerable changes in the demographic statistics for the North seat. Compared with the previous lines, also on the 2021 census figures, its owner occupation rate has increased by 7% from 59.8% to 66.8%, which lifts it up the rank order of seats in England and Wales on this criterion no fewer than 141 places - from well below average to above the average. Correspondingly, the private rented housing rank drops 131 places, the social rented is down by 78 places. The percentage of white residents has been increased by over 7%. Finally, the age profile has become distinctly older and there are now over 17% aged 65 plus; comparing with the rank order in 2011, North is up 226 places among constituencies on this variable.
There are still major variations within the new Milton Keynes North seat within these overall figures. The northern rural areas round Olney have a high proportion of professional and managerial workers, all over 40% and peaking in the 2021 census at over 47% in Olney & Lavendon MSOA. Within the built up area of MK the highest is 39.9% in Newport Pagnell South, which includes new housing such as at Tickford End, but there are over 39% in Stony Stratford. By far the lowest is 17% in Stacey Bushes & Fullers Slade, where the new developments are substantially more working class even than the older parts of Wolverton (though Wolverton Mill is much more upmarket in socio-economic terms than the old town). Other new (some very new) developments that are very middle class are Oakridge Park on the edge of the built up area between Wolverton and Newport Pagnell and Giffard Park. The other ward which has a relatively high proportion of people in routine and semi-routine jobs is Stantonbury. The highest ethnic minority presence is in Wolverton & New Bardwell MSOA (15% Asian) and Stantonbury & Bradville (12% Black).
The new Milton Keynes North is a key target for Labour, its notional result for 2019 having exactly the sort of Conservative lead that they will need to overcome in order to become the largest party. They will also be confident. Not only do many months of national opinion poll lead suggest Labour should gain North comfortably, but the most recent local election results certainly offer encouragement. Not only did Labour hold Wolverton, a ward they have won ever since 1973 with the single exception of a Lib Dem victory in 2008, and gained Stantonbury from the Tories with an 18% lead, but they won the Stony Stratford ward which has been switched from Milton Keynes South. Most surprisingly, Labour also gained the large ward of Olney, rural, middle class and stretching right up to the Northamptonshire border. Labour had never won Olney before, at least not in the previous 50 years.
The only ward the Conservatives held on to in May 2023 was Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope, which includes the north western rural part of the seat. The Liberal Democrats retained the other two wards, Newport Pagnell South and Bradwell, at the time only 60% in the North seat but wholly to be included under the new boundaries. These two LD wards are distinctly different in socio-economic character. They both include large sections of new housing development, but while Newport Pagnell South contains middle class neighbourhoods like Giffard Park and Tickford End, Bradwell stretches as far as Wolverton Stacey Bushes, and also takes in Wymbush and Heelands, all predominantly working class census OAs, with relatively high ethnic minority percentages, Wymbush being over 20% Asian and Heelands as much as 17% Black.
Overall Labour polled 38.5% within the new boundaries, the Tories 33.6% and the Liberal Democrats 21.6%, which would seem eminently squeezable given that the LDs only reached 8.0% in North in the December 2019 general election. That on its new lines North only contained the northernmost tier of ‘new town MK’, and some older towns and a swathe of rolling affluent countryside does not seem to present a problem, taking into account the May 2023 local election results in these wards. In some ways Milton Keynes North is now rather typical of modern England as a whole, much more so than Milton Keynes Central, for example, and it will be a very suitable litmus test of their ability to secure a broad enough appeal to win the next general election.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 17.4% 359/575
Owner occupied 66.8% 268/575
Private rented 18.4% 275/575
Social rented 14.8% 295/575
White 79.9% 410/575
Black 6.1% 119/575
Asian 9.0% 171/575
Managerial & professional 38.1% 148/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.9% 344/575
Degree level 35.3% 197/575
No qualifications 15.4% 410/575
Students 5.7% 275/575
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Everitt 30,938 49.5 +2.0
Labour Charlynne Pullen 24,683 39.5 −5.0
Liberal Democrats Aisha Mir 4,991 8.0 +4.1
Green Catherine Rose 1,931 3.1 +1.4
C Majority 6,255 10.0 +7.0
2019 electorate 91,535
Turnout 62,543 68.3 −3.5
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Milton Keynes North consists of
62.3% of Milton Keynes North
14.0% of Milton Keynes North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_341_Milton%20Keynes%20North_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 24993 | 51.6% |
| Lab | 18606 | 38.5% |
| LD | 3246 | 6.7% |
| Grn | 1499 | 3.1% |
| Majority | 6327 | 13.1% |