Post by andrewp on Nov 21, 2023 14:12:20 GMT
This is an updated version of the original profile compiled by @peoplelikewe, who is the I below, with a notional result by Pete Whitehead
The parliament constituency of Weston-super-Mud consists of the Victorian seaside town of the same name which like many seaside resorts has gone into decline over many years. It has an economy that is very much dependant on tourism, mainly from visitors across the water in South Wales and up the M5 from the West Midlands.
East of the town, near the M5 motorway, you have the semi rural areas of Locking, famous for the RAF base and now the Helicopter Museum, and neighbouring Hutton. South of the ajoined council ward of Hutton and Locking is the village of Bleadon.
The northern part of Weston-super-Mare has the parish of Kewstoke which has the famous Sand Bay point, and Worle - which to some residents being included in Weston-super-Mare is still a sore point as this area did have it's own parish for many years. Worle is split into the three wards of North Worle, bordering Wick St Lawrence, Mid-Worle which covers the local high street and the Preanes Green housing estate and South Worle which features the Mead Vale housing estate.
West of Worle is Milton, a mainly residential area with some private and social housing – heading past the point of the Weston Milton station you have the Hutton Moor Leisure Centre and Gym on the main Winterstoke Road, which does lead into Winterstoke ward – a “new” area of the town with modern built homes mainly owner-occupied or rented via a private landlord. Heading east of the area is Weston Village, another newly developed area.
West of Milton, on the coast, is the appropriately named Hillside ward. Many of the roads are very steep hills, spreading up a steep hill North of the town centre, and it's a mixed ward in terms of demographics - the more affluent parts are near Milton Cemetery and Ashcombe Park and westwards to the old Birnbeck Pier. The rest of the ward is the less “hilly” parts that cover half of the town centre, Knightstone Island, Grove Park and half of the Boulevard high street - this is mainly private rental and less affluent – usually appealing to those on low incomes and students. Central ward covers most of the town centre from Ashcombe Road to Clarence Park. It's an area with some affluent parts such as Ellenbrough and Clarence Park areas and a lot of deprivation in the more central areas with residents in mostly poor-quality private housing. Crossing the boundary is South ward which houses the Potteries and the Oldmixon and Bournville housing estates. These areas have a high amount of social housing and a lot of deprivation. Uphill ward is the missing piece of the puzzle covers parts of the town centre at Moorland Road which has a mix of owner-occupied and private housing and the Coronation estate which is majority social housing, the town's hospital and of course the affluent and semi rural Uphill Village.
Weston Super Mare had an electorate of over 82000 at the time of the 2019 General election so some territory needed to be removed in the current boundary review, About 12000 voters ( or 14.4% of the current electorate) which is most, but not all, of the rural section of this constituency are moved into the Wells and Mendip Hills constituency. The villages removed are Banwell, Blagdon, Churchill, Congresbury and Winscombe. This leaves the villages that are now on the outskirts of Weston- Hutton, Locking and Wick St Lawrence - as the only remaining semi rural territory although all of those villages have had many housing developments in recent years. Wick St Lawrence does have a pocket of social housing run by both the Knightstone and Alliance Homes housing associations.
Weston-super-Mare is the largest settlement within the North Somerset council area. Most employment within the constituency is either seasonal work within the tourism trade, on which the town depends a lot, hospitality and services, social care due to an older skewing population and some distribution and light industries. The town does now have a reputation as a “dormitory town” for Bristol, as those in skilled professions do tend to travel to Bristol and surrounding area for work. Demographically the new constituency ranks 134th in England and Wales for people aged over 65 with 27.3% of people falling within that category. It is fairly average on most measures relating to housing tenure. Educational qualifications are a little below the national average, ranking 422 in the number of people with degree level qualifications.
Politically, the constituency has mostly returned Conservative MPs, with the exceptions of 1997 and 2001 when Liberal Democrat Brian Cotter was elected. Labour were continuously second from 1945 to 1970 (with the exception of the 1969 by-election), but never got within 10.000 votes of the Conservatives, and then were usually behind the Liberal Democrats for quite a long period, until things changed in 2015 where they snatched a narrow second place from UKIP. The Labour vote increased again in 2017 which posted the parties best result since 1945, but declined by 6% in the most recent general election in December 2019.
The Liberal Democrat vote since achieving second place in 2010 has fallen dramatically, as they were fourth in 2015 behind UKIP, a distant third in 2017 and again in 2019.
As for minor party performances, UKIP were a close third with nearly 18% of the vote in 2015, but their presence has somewhat disappeared from view since then. The Greens have never retained their deposit in any general election they have contested in this constituency, the closest they got was in 2015 with well-known Green activist Dr Richard Lawson (who was a former councillor in the district). The BNP took part in 2005 and 2010 losing their deposits on both occasions and the English Democrats took part with a very small amount of votes in 2010 and 2015.
On a local level, the Labour vote is very strong in South ward which has the housing estates of Bournville and Oldmixon and which has always returned Labour councillors, in some years being the only ward to do so. Milton has a been a bell-weather ward since 1995 as it has alternated between Labour and Conservative councillors, but the Labour vote has always been strong thanks to a very popular local councillor in Richard Tucker. Labour did claim it's first councillor in Winterstoke ward in 2019, and sometimes have had representation in North Worle and South Worle.
The Liberal Democrats main areas of support are within the two town centre wards of Central and Hillside. They have a councillor in Blagdon and Churchill ward who was their candidate for the 2019 General Election. I will add historically, UKIP did have a town councillor in Mid Worle from 2015 to 2019. She did not defend her seat.
In the 2023 local elections councillors elected within the new constituency were Labour 8, Conservative 7. Liberal Democrat 5, Independent 2. Labour won three wards in Weston, all east and south of the town centre- Milton, South and Winterstoke. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s won 2 wards each in Weston- the Conservatives taking Kewstoke and North Worle in the North of the town and The Liberal Democrat’s the central Central and Hillside wards. 2 wards- Uphlll, in the south of the town, and South Worle split between Labour and the Conservatives.
The boundary changes here reduce the Conservative lead by a few points, leaving the notional majority at about 27%. Many of the big old seaside towns in England are seemingly moving towards the Labour Party with Bournemouth and Worthing quite possibly poised to elect Labour MPs for the first time in 2024. Labour have never got closer than 10,000 votes behind the Conservatives in Weston. The swing needed by the Labour Party here is in the region of 14%, which is equivalent to a national lead of about 18%- a swing that is towards the better end of the polling for Labour at present. Weston is not as likely as Bournemouth and Worthing to join Labour’s seaside club but a Labour gain is no longer impossible here. Labour getting as close as they ever have looks almost certain but a Labour gain is probably still not the most likely outcome
2019 Notional result on new boundaries
Con 25936. 55.9%
Lab 13187. 28.4%
LD 5722. 12.3%
Grn 1526. 3.3%
Majority
12749. 27.5%
The parliament constituency of Weston-super-Mud consists of the Victorian seaside town of the same name which like many seaside resorts has gone into decline over many years. It has an economy that is very much dependant on tourism, mainly from visitors across the water in South Wales and up the M5 from the West Midlands.
East of the town, near the M5 motorway, you have the semi rural areas of Locking, famous for the RAF base and now the Helicopter Museum, and neighbouring Hutton. South of the ajoined council ward of Hutton and Locking is the village of Bleadon.
The northern part of Weston-super-Mare has the parish of Kewstoke which has the famous Sand Bay point, and Worle - which to some residents being included in Weston-super-Mare is still a sore point as this area did have it's own parish for many years. Worle is split into the three wards of North Worle, bordering Wick St Lawrence, Mid-Worle which covers the local high street and the Preanes Green housing estate and South Worle which features the Mead Vale housing estate.
West of Worle is Milton, a mainly residential area with some private and social housing – heading past the point of the Weston Milton station you have the Hutton Moor Leisure Centre and Gym on the main Winterstoke Road, which does lead into Winterstoke ward – a “new” area of the town with modern built homes mainly owner-occupied or rented via a private landlord. Heading east of the area is Weston Village, another newly developed area.
West of Milton, on the coast, is the appropriately named Hillside ward. Many of the roads are very steep hills, spreading up a steep hill North of the town centre, and it's a mixed ward in terms of demographics - the more affluent parts are near Milton Cemetery and Ashcombe Park and westwards to the old Birnbeck Pier. The rest of the ward is the less “hilly” parts that cover half of the town centre, Knightstone Island, Grove Park and half of the Boulevard high street - this is mainly private rental and less affluent – usually appealing to those on low incomes and students. Central ward covers most of the town centre from Ashcombe Road to Clarence Park. It's an area with some affluent parts such as Ellenbrough and Clarence Park areas and a lot of deprivation in the more central areas with residents in mostly poor-quality private housing. Crossing the boundary is South ward which houses the Potteries and the Oldmixon and Bournville housing estates. These areas have a high amount of social housing and a lot of deprivation. Uphill ward is the missing piece of the puzzle covers parts of the town centre at Moorland Road which has a mix of owner-occupied and private housing and the Coronation estate which is majority social housing, the town's hospital and of course the affluent and semi rural Uphill Village.
Weston Super Mare had an electorate of over 82000 at the time of the 2019 General election so some territory needed to be removed in the current boundary review, About 12000 voters ( or 14.4% of the current electorate) which is most, but not all, of the rural section of this constituency are moved into the Wells and Mendip Hills constituency. The villages removed are Banwell, Blagdon, Churchill, Congresbury and Winscombe. This leaves the villages that are now on the outskirts of Weston- Hutton, Locking and Wick St Lawrence - as the only remaining semi rural territory although all of those villages have had many housing developments in recent years. Wick St Lawrence does have a pocket of social housing run by both the Knightstone and Alliance Homes housing associations.
Weston-super-Mare is the largest settlement within the North Somerset council area. Most employment within the constituency is either seasonal work within the tourism trade, on which the town depends a lot, hospitality and services, social care due to an older skewing population and some distribution and light industries. The town does now have a reputation as a “dormitory town” for Bristol, as those in skilled professions do tend to travel to Bristol and surrounding area for work. Demographically the new constituency ranks 134th in England and Wales for people aged over 65 with 27.3% of people falling within that category. It is fairly average on most measures relating to housing tenure. Educational qualifications are a little below the national average, ranking 422 in the number of people with degree level qualifications.
Politically, the constituency has mostly returned Conservative MPs, with the exceptions of 1997 and 2001 when Liberal Democrat Brian Cotter was elected. Labour were continuously second from 1945 to 1970 (with the exception of the 1969 by-election), but never got within 10.000 votes of the Conservatives, and then were usually behind the Liberal Democrats for quite a long period, until things changed in 2015 where they snatched a narrow second place from UKIP. The Labour vote increased again in 2017 which posted the parties best result since 1945, but declined by 6% in the most recent general election in December 2019.
The Liberal Democrat vote since achieving second place in 2010 has fallen dramatically, as they were fourth in 2015 behind UKIP, a distant third in 2017 and again in 2019.
As for minor party performances, UKIP were a close third with nearly 18% of the vote in 2015, but their presence has somewhat disappeared from view since then. The Greens have never retained their deposit in any general election they have contested in this constituency, the closest they got was in 2015 with well-known Green activist Dr Richard Lawson (who was a former councillor in the district). The BNP took part in 2005 and 2010 losing their deposits on both occasions and the English Democrats took part with a very small amount of votes in 2010 and 2015.
On a local level, the Labour vote is very strong in South ward which has the housing estates of Bournville and Oldmixon and which has always returned Labour councillors, in some years being the only ward to do so. Milton has a been a bell-weather ward since 1995 as it has alternated between Labour and Conservative councillors, but the Labour vote has always been strong thanks to a very popular local councillor in Richard Tucker. Labour did claim it's first councillor in Winterstoke ward in 2019, and sometimes have had representation in North Worle and South Worle.
The Liberal Democrats main areas of support are within the two town centre wards of Central and Hillside. They have a councillor in Blagdon and Churchill ward who was their candidate for the 2019 General Election. I will add historically, UKIP did have a town councillor in Mid Worle from 2015 to 2019. She did not defend her seat.
In the 2023 local elections councillors elected within the new constituency were Labour 8, Conservative 7. Liberal Democrat 5, Independent 2. Labour won three wards in Weston, all east and south of the town centre- Milton, South and Winterstoke. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s won 2 wards each in Weston- the Conservatives taking Kewstoke and North Worle in the North of the town and The Liberal Democrat’s the central Central and Hillside wards. 2 wards- Uphlll, in the south of the town, and South Worle split between Labour and the Conservatives.
The boundary changes here reduce the Conservative lead by a few points, leaving the notional majority at about 27%. Many of the big old seaside towns in England are seemingly moving towards the Labour Party with Bournemouth and Worthing quite possibly poised to elect Labour MPs for the first time in 2024. Labour have never got closer than 10,000 votes behind the Conservatives in Weston. The swing needed by the Labour Party here is in the region of 14%, which is equivalent to a national lead of about 18%- a swing that is towards the better end of the polling for Labour at present. Weston is not as likely as Bournemouth and Worthing to join Labour’s seaside club but a Labour gain is no longer impossible here. Labour getting as close as they ever have looks almost certain but a Labour gain is probably still not the most likely outcome
2019 Notional result on new boundaries
Con 25936. 55.9%
Lab 13187. 28.4%
LD 5722. 12.3%
Grn 1526. 3.3%
Majority
12749. 27.5%
