Post by Robert Waller on Nov 19, 2023 11:13:44 GMT
This is based on the excellent work of londonseal80, who has given permission for me to update and 'tidy it up', as he put it
A slice of the London commuter belt in North East Surrey, up to and including 2019 this constituency contained the borough of Epsom and Ewell and parts of the borough of Reigate and Banstead and the district of Mole Valley. The current MP is Chris Grayling, first elected as MP in 2001 having previously served as a councillor for nearby Merton. He has consistently had five figure majorities throughout his tenure here. The constituency was created in 1974 from Epsom and Ewell - part of the old Epsom seat - and the semi-rural Banstead part of the old Carshalton county constituency. Boundary changes in 1997 removed most of Banstead, except the wards close to Epsom Downs and added Ashtead from the Mole Valley seat, in 2010 the single councillor Preston ward was removed.
In the latest boundary review, to come into force in time for a 2024 general election, Epsom & Ewell both gains and loses territory. The Reigate & Banstead borough sections – Nork and the Tattenham Corner part of its joint ward with Preston – join the Reigate constituency, which already included Preston (a small anomalous social housing estate). In compensation, the Mole Valley district element is increased by the transfer of both Leatherhead wards from the former Mole Valley seat, which has undergone fairly major review involving a name change for its core to Dorking & Horley. In a way this is all logical, but to some extent not. Of the departing areas, Nork does look more to Banstead than Epsom, but Tattenham Corner does not, which as the name implies abuts Epsom racecourse and lies up on the Downs south-east (and not much east) of Epsom town centre. As for Leatherhead, it is a fairly independents town in its own right. Whereas it does have some links with Ashtead, which was once in Letherhead urban district council, there is a clearer break on the ground than there is with Fetcham, for example which along with its contiguous neighbourhood of Bookham was also in Leatherhead UDC. Looking at a map, or driving around, it is very hard to see where Leatherhead stops and Fetcham starts, as it is all one built up area.
This is a highly owner-occupied seat ranging from very wealthy areas around the Downs, Ewell East and the large village of Ashtead to more middle of the road suburbia towards the north of the seat. There are a few minor grim patches too in this otherwise wealthy suburban seat, however this is overall a very low area in terms of deprivation (three quarters of the Epsom & Ewell borough council wards have low deprivation scores in line with the rest of Surrey and the outer southwest London boroughs) and higher than UK average house prices like neighbouring Kingston upon Thames. This has been one of the most consistently ultra-safe Conservative seats with neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats really mounting a serious challenge here. The last time this area was in a seat with a majority was under 10,000 was in 1945, in the old Epsom seat which at the time had a smaller percentage Conservative majority than Streatham (which was a very different area back then politically to what it is today). The battle tends to be who will finish in second place rather than who wins the seat. The Epsom and Ewell borough itself has perhaps more in common with outer London suburban boroughs such as Sutton, Bromley and Hillingdon rather than Elmbridge or Mole Valley. For example, overall this seat was only 81% White at the time of the 2021 census, with an Asian population consistently around 10%, rising to 16% in the MSOA corresponding to Cuddington ward.
I will now describe the seat starting with the areas outside the borough which tend to help with the large conservative majority though on borough boundaries, it would still be a rather safe seat and held in bad Tory years.
Ashtead
This is a large village located just within the M25 although it has a Village feel, it is in some ways more like a small Town. It for a start has a population that would have been large enough to have had its own pre-1974 Urban District Council (rather than be part of Leatherhead) and also has its own post-town. The residents of this very wealthy attractive commuter belt area prefer Ashtead to be known as a village. Unlike a village it contains two wards – Lanes & Common and Park and for local government tend to vote for Independent councillors (which is a big feature of this seat in general), the sitting county councillor is also an independent. Lanes & Common has elected Ashtead Independents continuously since Mole Valley’s first elections in 1973 except for a solitary Liberal Democrat win in 1992. With Park it is the same story, there just being two exceptions, Conservative victories in 1982 and 2006. Ashtead has a relatively busy railway station with frequent trains to London Waterloo and London Victoria, and outwards to Dorking and Guildford. In May 2023 once again both wards were easily taken by the Independents.
Leatherhead North and South
Leatherhead has a population of around 11,500. It is one of those Surrey towns that somewhat belies stereotypes of the hyper-affluent ‘gin-and-Jag set’. The northern half of the town is distinctly plebeian, with relatively low cost private housing and some social rented areas. The town centre is heavily redeveloped and lacking in attractions. The southern half is decidedly more up-market, with the private roads of Givons Grove rather isolated beyond the A24 bypass and a few very wealthy enclaves, such as Downs Lane directly south of the town centre where for many years the actor Sir Michael Caine made his English home. There is a reasonably distinguished private school, St John’s. But overall it is fair to say that Leatherhead is ‘nothing special’. Many of the most comfortable residential areas turn out to out to be over the new constituency border, such as in the eastern part of Fetcham which is still in Dorking & Horley with most of the Mole Valley district. Leatherhead North used to be won by Labour about half the time, but they last got over the line in the year 2000, and North has become solidly Liberal Democrat since 2016. They beat the Tories by two to one in May 2023. Labour did not even stand in an area which has over 20% in routine and semi-routine occupations and 22% social rented housing. In Leatherhead South the Conservatives retained two of the three councillors elected in May 2023, but a Lib Dem finished top of the poll. This was an advance, as their only previous success on this ward was one being elected in 1994.
Now for the areas within Epsom proper:
Woodcote & Langley Vale, and College
These are two of the most affluent areas of Epsom, College ward has very little deprivation with no significant social housing, it contains large (Muswell Hill/Crouch End) style Victorian terraces towards the town and more detached properties towards the downs, this is the only ward that currently has Lib Dem councillors. Woodcote contains Epsom General Hospital and also contains a lot of large detached and semi-detached houses; north of Epsom General Hospital, there is the Ebbisham Estate which is a small area of London overspill, though most of this is now owner occupied, with 31-32% still social rented in the local OAs in the 2021 census. This ward also contains the settlement of Langley Vale and of course the Epsom racecourse, special buses run from both Epsom National Rail station (406F) and Morden Underground Station (864) for the famous Derby and Oaks races. One of the few Epsom & Ewell wards with a history of electing Liberal Democrats, College favoured three of that party in the most recent local elections in May 2023, a further gain from 2019. Outpolling the Residents by just over two to one, the Lib Dems would seem to have made College a safe ward. In the renamed Woodcote & Langley Vale ward (there were local boundary changes in time for the May 2023 contests easily returned three Residents, as it has since the last isolated and single Tory win in Woodcote in 2015.
Ewell Village
A pleasant village centre, which lots of historical old building, it contains the modern Bourne hall museum and library (which has been used to film an episode of The Bill), it has a brilliant exhibition documenting the history of Epsom and Ewell and pays tribute to famous people associated with Epsom including Norman Wisdom and the MP James Chuter Ede who was a Labour councillor in Epsom Urban District council in the 1920s and became MP for Mitcham in 1923, later serving as MP for South Shields. Ewell Village is one of six wards within the borough which has an unbroken record of electing Residents since 1973, and 2023 was no exception, with the third of three councillors elected receiving three times as many votes as the fourth placed candidate, a lone Labour contender in the ward.
Stoneleigh and Nonsuch
Both wards border affluent Cheam and Worcester Park in neighbouring Sutton parts of Nonsuch share the Sutton SM2 postcode. Stoneleigh Broadway is a shopping parade built by the art-deco railway station and has mainly 1930s metroland style suburban semis. Nonsuch ward (named after Henry VIII’s grand but demolished palace) contains East Ewell station, NESCOT (North East Surrey College of Technology) and the new housing developments along Augustus Drive just north of NESCOT. The ward also now contains the very affluent stockbroker-belt Ewell Downs area. Both wards are Residents Association strongholds, Nonsuch never having elected anyone else in the past 50 years. Stoneleigh has elected Conservative councillors in previous elections, but not since 2011, and they were beaten by the Residents by over four to one in Stoneleigh in May 2023.
Auriol, Cuddington and Ewell Court
This is middle of the road suburbia and where the Epsom and Ewell Residents association has been the longest in dominance of local politics, a lot of the housing here is of the early 1930s. the new residents of that time created Residents Associations in order to protect local interests, these wards have never voted anything else but for the Residents in local election and unless in an extremely unlikely event this area starts to rapidly go demographically in direction of the likes of Redbridge and Croydon, it can’t see this independent localised politics picture changing the foreseeable future. This section includes the Epsom borough half of the Worcester Park neighbourhood, which is shared with the London Borough of Sutton, and feels particularly indistinguishable from outer London suburbia. In 2023 the top Resident polled 66.6% in Cuddington, 71.5% in Ewell Court, and no less than 77.0% in Auriol.
West Ewell, Horton, Stamford and Town
West Ewell is the less affluent part of Ewell but still a pleasant MOR suburban area overall and has good transport links via the West Ewell station. Horton is where most of the old LCC asylums (the ‘Epsom Cluster’ of five large psychiatric hospitals, well displayed in the heritage exhibition in the Horton centre, a former chapel) where located, these have but shut down and new housing has been built here, mainly owner occupied but about 16% social rented. This created a new community which has generally been happy to lend their local vote to the Residents Association in recent years. Town contains the town centre, which has a shopping centre that opened in 1983 and a large station it also contains the Kiln Lane Industrial area of which the industry is car parts. The area contains one the largest Sainsbury’s stores in the county which opened in 1989, both this ward and Stamford contain some small areas of social housing, in Stamford’s case in parts of the Wells, the unusual inter war circular housing development in the middle of Epsom Common. The Lib Dems used to be strong here in the 1980s through to the 2000s. Before the mid-1970s all these wards where mainly won by the Residents Association and Labour were competitive here too and councillors were elected in these wards in the old thirds elections sporadically (especially in the old six councillor West Ewell ward which contained Ruxley).
Because of the population growth, a new ward of Horton was created for 2023, basically covering the bulk of the new housing developments such as Livingstone Park, Manor Park and West Park. With many newcomers the pattern of voting here proved very different from the rest of the borough and the Conservatives took both seats easily in its inaugural contest. On the other hand, they lost the one seat in Stamford ward they won in 2019, presumably because it has now shrunk and no longer contains much of the new housing. This suggestion is all the more likely as that Tory councillor actually stood in Horton and topped the poll there.
Ruxley and Court
We now come to these last two wards, these are least affluent (one of which by a country mile) and yes there are few grim patches within this seat. Ruxley has some very nice areas around Clarendon and Horton Park, the housing in generally nice, however 2/3 of this ward is the Watersedge estate some of which is 1930s terraced housing and some low rise flats, this area has among the most deprived in Surrey, though less so than Court (which I will come to in a bit), you would think this would be natural Labour territory but you will be mistaken, again lost most Epsom and Ewell ward politics is dominated by the Residents Association, with the exception of 2003 Labour has never come close to winning the ward it was created in 1976 from the old West Ewell ward. In fact the main challenge to the Residents Association have been the Conservatives, this is perhaps because it has more of a Thatcherite working class/Essex man demographic where Labour perhaps (and in particular the Corbynite wing of the party) don’t go down too well, its also most likely to have had the highest Brexit vote of all wards in the borough and perhaps one of the highest in Surrey. Finally we come to Court which contains the Longmead estate and indeed a Labour stronghold and is very deprived by Surrey standards and even compared with outer south-west London. Hence with the exception of 2007, Labour have always managed to win the ward in the past and often very comfortably even in disaster years like 1983 and 1987. Perhaps this is the south of the river equivalent of the close to London border Hertfordshire wards such as South Oxhey in Three Rivers or Cowley Hill in Hertsmere. In May 2023 Labour again dominated Court, beating the Residents by a ratio of about five to two votes, while they were second but a long way behind the localists in Ruxley.
Despite its local Independent predilections, in December 2019 Epsom & Ewell constituency elected Chris Grayling with a majority of nearly 18,000, but it was not immune from trends that affected several other Surrey seats. The Conservative share dropped by over 6%, while the Liberal Democrats advanced by 11%, overtaking Labour (who fell 8%) to move into second place. Like Guildford and Elmbridge boroughs, Epsom and Ewell voted to remain in the EU in 2016, although Chris Grayling backed leave. The localist patterns of municipal contests over many decades may disguise Lib Dem potential. On the other hand the absence of local council success and a build up of elected councillors after successful May campaigning (as in the Esher & Walton constituency in Elmbridge) probably handicaps their chances of making gain in Westminster contests, and with better prospects elsewhere in Surrey (and just over the border in Greater London too) it seems unlikely to be seriously targeted in a 2024 general election. Chris Grayling has announced that he will stand down, but that is unlikely to be decisive either way. The notional effects of the boundary changes as calculated by Pete Whitehead suggest that the Tory majority in 2019 would have been about 1,000 (or 1%) lower, which also is unlikely to tip the balance. The Conservative lead may well be cut, but if they don’t win in the Epsom seat by the electoral equivalent of twenty lengths, it will still be surprising if it’s by a short head.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 18.9% 299/575
Owner occupied 74.2% 72/575
Private rented 16.2% 378/575
Social rented 9.7% 528/575
White 81.9% 389/575
Black 1.8% 248/575
Asian 9.8% 161/575
Managerial & professional 45.7% 33/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.2% 537/575
Degree level 44.6% 69/575
No qualifications 12.6% 525/575
Students 6.4% 211/575
General Election 2019: Epsom and Ewell
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chris Grayling 31,819 53.5 -6.1
Liberal Democrats Stephen Gee 13,946 23.5 +11.0
Labour Ed Mayne 10,226 17.2 -7.8
Green Janice Baker 2,047 3.4 +0.6
Independent Clive Woodbridge 1,413 2.4 NA
C Majority 17,873 30.0 -4.5
2019 electorate 81,138
Turnout 59,451 73.3 -0.8
Conservative hold
Swing 8.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Epsom and Ewell comprises
84.9% of Epsom and Ewell
11.4% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_315_Epsom%20and%20Ewell_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
A slice of the London commuter belt in North East Surrey, up to and including 2019 this constituency contained the borough of Epsom and Ewell and parts of the borough of Reigate and Banstead and the district of Mole Valley. The current MP is Chris Grayling, first elected as MP in 2001 having previously served as a councillor for nearby Merton. He has consistently had five figure majorities throughout his tenure here. The constituency was created in 1974 from Epsom and Ewell - part of the old Epsom seat - and the semi-rural Banstead part of the old Carshalton county constituency. Boundary changes in 1997 removed most of Banstead, except the wards close to Epsom Downs and added Ashtead from the Mole Valley seat, in 2010 the single councillor Preston ward was removed.
In the latest boundary review, to come into force in time for a 2024 general election, Epsom & Ewell both gains and loses territory. The Reigate & Banstead borough sections – Nork and the Tattenham Corner part of its joint ward with Preston – join the Reigate constituency, which already included Preston (a small anomalous social housing estate). In compensation, the Mole Valley district element is increased by the transfer of both Leatherhead wards from the former Mole Valley seat, which has undergone fairly major review involving a name change for its core to Dorking & Horley. In a way this is all logical, but to some extent not. Of the departing areas, Nork does look more to Banstead than Epsom, but Tattenham Corner does not, which as the name implies abuts Epsom racecourse and lies up on the Downs south-east (and not much east) of Epsom town centre. As for Leatherhead, it is a fairly independents town in its own right. Whereas it does have some links with Ashtead, which was once in Letherhead urban district council, there is a clearer break on the ground than there is with Fetcham, for example which along with its contiguous neighbourhood of Bookham was also in Leatherhead UDC. Looking at a map, or driving around, it is very hard to see where Leatherhead stops and Fetcham starts, as it is all one built up area.
This is a highly owner-occupied seat ranging from very wealthy areas around the Downs, Ewell East and the large village of Ashtead to more middle of the road suburbia towards the north of the seat. There are a few minor grim patches too in this otherwise wealthy suburban seat, however this is overall a very low area in terms of deprivation (three quarters of the Epsom & Ewell borough council wards have low deprivation scores in line with the rest of Surrey and the outer southwest London boroughs) and higher than UK average house prices like neighbouring Kingston upon Thames. This has been one of the most consistently ultra-safe Conservative seats with neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats really mounting a serious challenge here. The last time this area was in a seat with a majority was under 10,000 was in 1945, in the old Epsom seat which at the time had a smaller percentage Conservative majority than Streatham (which was a very different area back then politically to what it is today). The battle tends to be who will finish in second place rather than who wins the seat. The Epsom and Ewell borough itself has perhaps more in common with outer London suburban boroughs such as Sutton, Bromley and Hillingdon rather than Elmbridge or Mole Valley. For example, overall this seat was only 81% White at the time of the 2021 census, with an Asian population consistently around 10%, rising to 16% in the MSOA corresponding to Cuddington ward.
I will now describe the seat starting with the areas outside the borough which tend to help with the large conservative majority though on borough boundaries, it would still be a rather safe seat and held in bad Tory years.
Ashtead
This is a large village located just within the M25 although it has a Village feel, it is in some ways more like a small Town. It for a start has a population that would have been large enough to have had its own pre-1974 Urban District Council (rather than be part of Leatherhead) and also has its own post-town. The residents of this very wealthy attractive commuter belt area prefer Ashtead to be known as a village. Unlike a village it contains two wards – Lanes & Common and Park and for local government tend to vote for Independent councillors (which is a big feature of this seat in general), the sitting county councillor is also an independent. Lanes & Common has elected Ashtead Independents continuously since Mole Valley’s first elections in 1973 except for a solitary Liberal Democrat win in 1992. With Park it is the same story, there just being two exceptions, Conservative victories in 1982 and 2006. Ashtead has a relatively busy railway station with frequent trains to London Waterloo and London Victoria, and outwards to Dorking and Guildford. In May 2023 once again both wards were easily taken by the Independents.
Leatherhead North and South
Leatherhead has a population of around 11,500. It is one of those Surrey towns that somewhat belies stereotypes of the hyper-affluent ‘gin-and-Jag set’. The northern half of the town is distinctly plebeian, with relatively low cost private housing and some social rented areas. The town centre is heavily redeveloped and lacking in attractions. The southern half is decidedly more up-market, with the private roads of Givons Grove rather isolated beyond the A24 bypass and a few very wealthy enclaves, such as Downs Lane directly south of the town centre where for many years the actor Sir Michael Caine made his English home. There is a reasonably distinguished private school, St John’s. But overall it is fair to say that Leatherhead is ‘nothing special’. Many of the most comfortable residential areas turn out to out to be over the new constituency border, such as in the eastern part of Fetcham which is still in Dorking & Horley with most of the Mole Valley district. Leatherhead North used to be won by Labour about half the time, but they last got over the line in the year 2000, and North has become solidly Liberal Democrat since 2016. They beat the Tories by two to one in May 2023. Labour did not even stand in an area which has over 20% in routine and semi-routine occupations and 22% social rented housing. In Leatherhead South the Conservatives retained two of the three councillors elected in May 2023, but a Lib Dem finished top of the poll. This was an advance, as their only previous success on this ward was one being elected in 1994.
Now for the areas within Epsom proper:
Woodcote & Langley Vale, and College
These are two of the most affluent areas of Epsom, College ward has very little deprivation with no significant social housing, it contains large (Muswell Hill/Crouch End) style Victorian terraces towards the town and more detached properties towards the downs, this is the only ward that currently has Lib Dem councillors. Woodcote contains Epsom General Hospital and also contains a lot of large detached and semi-detached houses; north of Epsom General Hospital, there is the Ebbisham Estate which is a small area of London overspill, though most of this is now owner occupied, with 31-32% still social rented in the local OAs in the 2021 census. This ward also contains the settlement of Langley Vale and of course the Epsom racecourse, special buses run from both Epsom National Rail station (406F) and Morden Underground Station (864) for the famous Derby and Oaks races. One of the few Epsom & Ewell wards with a history of electing Liberal Democrats, College favoured three of that party in the most recent local elections in May 2023, a further gain from 2019. Outpolling the Residents by just over two to one, the Lib Dems would seem to have made College a safe ward. In the renamed Woodcote & Langley Vale ward (there were local boundary changes in time for the May 2023 contests easily returned three Residents, as it has since the last isolated and single Tory win in Woodcote in 2015.
Ewell Village
A pleasant village centre, which lots of historical old building, it contains the modern Bourne hall museum and library (which has been used to film an episode of The Bill), it has a brilliant exhibition documenting the history of Epsom and Ewell and pays tribute to famous people associated with Epsom including Norman Wisdom and the MP James Chuter Ede who was a Labour councillor in Epsom Urban District council in the 1920s and became MP for Mitcham in 1923, later serving as MP for South Shields. Ewell Village is one of six wards within the borough which has an unbroken record of electing Residents since 1973, and 2023 was no exception, with the third of three councillors elected receiving three times as many votes as the fourth placed candidate, a lone Labour contender in the ward.
Stoneleigh and Nonsuch
Both wards border affluent Cheam and Worcester Park in neighbouring Sutton parts of Nonsuch share the Sutton SM2 postcode. Stoneleigh Broadway is a shopping parade built by the art-deco railway station and has mainly 1930s metroland style suburban semis. Nonsuch ward (named after Henry VIII’s grand but demolished palace) contains East Ewell station, NESCOT (North East Surrey College of Technology) and the new housing developments along Augustus Drive just north of NESCOT. The ward also now contains the very affluent stockbroker-belt Ewell Downs area. Both wards are Residents Association strongholds, Nonsuch never having elected anyone else in the past 50 years. Stoneleigh has elected Conservative councillors in previous elections, but not since 2011, and they were beaten by the Residents by over four to one in Stoneleigh in May 2023.
Auriol, Cuddington and Ewell Court
This is middle of the road suburbia and where the Epsom and Ewell Residents association has been the longest in dominance of local politics, a lot of the housing here is of the early 1930s. the new residents of that time created Residents Associations in order to protect local interests, these wards have never voted anything else but for the Residents in local election and unless in an extremely unlikely event this area starts to rapidly go demographically in direction of the likes of Redbridge and Croydon, it can’t see this independent localised politics picture changing the foreseeable future. This section includes the Epsom borough half of the Worcester Park neighbourhood, which is shared with the London Borough of Sutton, and feels particularly indistinguishable from outer London suburbia. In 2023 the top Resident polled 66.6% in Cuddington, 71.5% in Ewell Court, and no less than 77.0% in Auriol.
West Ewell, Horton, Stamford and Town
West Ewell is the less affluent part of Ewell but still a pleasant MOR suburban area overall and has good transport links via the West Ewell station. Horton is where most of the old LCC asylums (the ‘Epsom Cluster’ of five large psychiatric hospitals, well displayed in the heritage exhibition in the Horton centre, a former chapel) where located, these have but shut down and new housing has been built here, mainly owner occupied but about 16% social rented. This created a new community which has generally been happy to lend their local vote to the Residents Association in recent years. Town contains the town centre, which has a shopping centre that opened in 1983 and a large station it also contains the Kiln Lane Industrial area of which the industry is car parts. The area contains one the largest Sainsbury’s stores in the county which opened in 1989, both this ward and Stamford contain some small areas of social housing, in Stamford’s case in parts of the Wells, the unusual inter war circular housing development in the middle of Epsom Common. The Lib Dems used to be strong here in the 1980s through to the 2000s. Before the mid-1970s all these wards where mainly won by the Residents Association and Labour were competitive here too and councillors were elected in these wards in the old thirds elections sporadically (especially in the old six councillor West Ewell ward which contained Ruxley).
Because of the population growth, a new ward of Horton was created for 2023, basically covering the bulk of the new housing developments such as Livingstone Park, Manor Park and West Park. With many newcomers the pattern of voting here proved very different from the rest of the borough and the Conservatives took both seats easily in its inaugural contest. On the other hand, they lost the one seat in Stamford ward they won in 2019, presumably because it has now shrunk and no longer contains much of the new housing. This suggestion is all the more likely as that Tory councillor actually stood in Horton and topped the poll there.
Ruxley and Court
We now come to these last two wards, these are least affluent (one of which by a country mile) and yes there are few grim patches within this seat. Ruxley has some very nice areas around Clarendon and Horton Park, the housing in generally nice, however 2/3 of this ward is the Watersedge estate some of which is 1930s terraced housing and some low rise flats, this area has among the most deprived in Surrey, though less so than Court (which I will come to in a bit), you would think this would be natural Labour territory but you will be mistaken, again lost most Epsom and Ewell ward politics is dominated by the Residents Association, with the exception of 2003 Labour has never come close to winning the ward it was created in 1976 from the old West Ewell ward. In fact the main challenge to the Residents Association have been the Conservatives, this is perhaps because it has more of a Thatcherite working class/Essex man demographic where Labour perhaps (and in particular the Corbynite wing of the party) don’t go down too well, its also most likely to have had the highest Brexit vote of all wards in the borough and perhaps one of the highest in Surrey. Finally we come to Court which contains the Longmead estate and indeed a Labour stronghold and is very deprived by Surrey standards and even compared with outer south-west London. Hence with the exception of 2007, Labour have always managed to win the ward in the past and often very comfortably even in disaster years like 1983 and 1987. Perhaps this is the south of the river equivalent of the close to London border Hertfordshire wards such as South Oxhey in Three Rivers or Cowley Hill in Hertsmere. In May 2023 Labour again dominated Court, beating the Residents by a ratio of about five to two votes, while they were second but a long way behind the localists in Ruxley.
Despite its local Independent predilections, in December 2019 Epsom & Ewell constituency elected Chris Grayling with a majority of nearly 18,000, but it was not immune from trends that affected several other Surrey seats. The Conservative share dropped by over 6%, while the Liberal Democrats advanced by 11%, overtaking Labour (who fell 8%) to move into second place. Like Guildford and Elmbridge boroughs, Epsom and Ewell voted to remain in the EU in 2016, although Chris Grayling backed leave. The localist patterns of municipal contests over many decades may disguise Lib Dem potential. On the other hand the absence of local council success and a build up of elected councillors after successful May campaigning (as in the Esher & Walton constituency in Elmbridge) probably handicaps their chances of making gain in Westminster contests, and with better prospects elsewhere in Surrey (and just over the border in Greater London too) it seems unlikely to be seriously targeted in a 2024 general election. Chris Grayling has announced that he will stand down, but that is unlikely to be decisive either way. The notional effects of the boundary changes as calculated by Pete Whitehead suggest that the Tory majority in 2019 would have been about 1,000 (or 1%) lower, which also is unlikely to tip the balance. The Conservative lead may well be cut, but if they don’t win in the Epsom seat by the electoral equivalent of twenty lengths, it will still be surprising if it’s by a short head.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 18.9% 299/575
Owner occupied 74.2% 72/575
Private rented 16.2% 378/575
Social rented 9.7% 528/575
White 81.9% 389/575
Black 1.8% 248/575
Asian 9.8% 161/575
Managerial & professional 45.7% 33/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.2% 537/575
Degree level 44.6% 69/575
No qualifications 12.6% 525/575
Students 6.4% 211/575
General Election 2019: Epsom and Ewell
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chris Grayling 31,819 53.5 -6.1
Liberal Democrats Stephen Gee 13,946 23.5 +11.0
Labour Ed Mayne 10,226 17.2 -7.8
Green Janice Baker 2,047 3.4 +0.6
Independent Clive Woodbridge 1,413 2.4 NA
C Majority 17,873 30.0 -4.5
2019 electorate 81,138
Turnout 59,451 73.3 -0.8
Conservative hold
Swing 8.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Epsom and Ewell comprises
84.9% of Epsom and Ewell
11.4% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_315_Epsom%20and%20Ewell_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 30752 | 53.6% |
| LD | 13896 | 24.2% |
| Lab | 9653 | 16.8% |
| Grn | 1896 | 3.3% |
| Oth | 1200 | 2.1% |
| Majority | 16856 | 29.4% |
