Post by Robert Waller on Nov 17, 2023 21:15:27 GMT
This profile is based on an original by warofdreams, with cognizance of other contributions to that thread.
York Central, despite its name, contains the large majority of the York urban area. It is surrounded by York Outer, which combines a few suburbs with outlying towns and villages. York Central and Bath have been the only two seats entirely surrounded by another, and this unusual set-up has existed only since 2010. After the forthcoming boundary changes, it will no longer apply to Bath, but it will to Warwick & Leamington, now to be encompassed by the revised lines of Kenilworth & Southam. The clear predecessor seat was the City of York, which had sent members to the Commons since 1265. The current MP is Rachael Maskell, who held various shadow ministerial posts under Jeremy Corbyn, and her two predecessors, Labour's Hugh Bayley, and the Conservative Conal Gregory, are both still with us.
The seat covers the heavily touristified centre of York, with its famous Minster and near-complete circuit of walls. To the west, it extends to the edge of the built-up area, excludes only the outermost suburbs to the south and east, but to the north it is more tightly drawn. It includes substantial council estates in Acomb, Clifton, and Tang Hall, small terraced housing around Hull Road and South Bank (the first area popular with students, and the second with left-leaning professionals), and privately owned suburbia around Heworth and Boroughbridge Road.
Until 1918, the constituency had two seats, which from the rise of the party system were often divided between the Whigs and the Tories, or later, the Conservatives and the Liberals. Reduction to one seat saw the end of a serious Liberal challenge, and Labour became competitive, winning the seat in 1929, 1945, and then holding it from 1966 to 1983, and 1992 on. York Central, shorn of some outer suburbs, is a safe Labour seat, with party managing a 27.4% majority over the Conservatives in 2019.
The Boundary Commission's proposals make only minor changes to the two York constituencies, realigning with new ward boundaries, but there is one effect of significance. As the whole of the Hull Road ward is now included, this brings in the campus of York University itself. This simple change means that the demographic figures of York Central are altered, so that, for example, the percentage of full time students rises to 23.2%, lifting it to 14th place in the list of constituencies in England and Wales on this criterion using the 2021 census figures. In 2011, on the former boundaries, York Central was placed outside the top twenty in 44th place, because the student population was split between those on campus in York Outer and the many thousands with rented lodgings and houses within the city itself (there is also York St John university too, which did exceptionally well in the 2023 national student satisfaction survey). The knock-on effects see the percentages of professional and managerial, and routine and semi-routine workers all decline, as do both those with degrees and with no educational qualifications. It also helps to keep York Central in the quartile of seats with the fewest aged 65 plus. It also may further strengthen Labour’s electoral position, as Hull Road ward returned a full slate of Labour councillors in May 2023, for example (as it has ever since 1979), with a share of over 50%, with the Tories trailing in fourth place with well under 10%. However there will be a question mark about turnout, particularly if the general elections should fall outside term time.
The city of York is not highly owner occupied as far as housing tenure is concerned. Not only is the seat as a whole nearly 20% social rented, but private renting reaches 45% in the City Centre MSOA in the 2021 census, Tang Hall 37%, Holgate East over 32%. There are only clear majorities of owner occupiers in Heworth North and the non-council estate part of Acomb, which is probably the closest thing to a suburb within the York Central seat. There are quite high percentages of professional and managerial workers in inner west York, the MSOAs of Howgate East, Rawclife & Clifton South and also in the non-Tang Hall parts of Heworth ward. But these are not the Tory type. There is a high level of public sector employment here, as well as the academic elements. However York also has a strong industrial and trade union tradition, for example through its role as a major railway centre. This is not, overall, a wealthy town for all the magnificent architecture in the centre. The tourism industry, for example produces a lot of poorly paid and insecure jobs.
In recent years, the largest party on the council has alternated between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have often been in pole position, but their strength is in York Outer, and after the all out City of York elections in May 2023 they hold only one of the three Westfield seats in the area covered by this constituency. Labour won all the rest in 2023 (and took control of the council), dominant in city centre wards like Fishergate, Guildhall, Holgate and Micklegate and those further out towards the edge of the city such as Acomb, Heworth (which includes Tang Hall) and Clifton. However the Greens have won both Fishergate seats, and one in both Micklegate and Guildhall, as recently as May 2019. The Conservatives are nowhere at the local level, their best performance anywhere in 2023 being their top candidate’s 17.8% in suburban Acomb. Overall, summing the May 2023 results within the constituency, Labour received a share of almost exactly 60%, Greens 16%, Liberal Democrats 13%, and Conservatives 10%.
The Tories will probably not finish fourth in the next general election, but they will not challenge for victory in York Central any time soon. The tenure of Conal Gregory at the height of the Thatcher years seems a very long time ago indeed here. It may seem counterintuitive at first, given the historical characterisation of the Church of England as ‘the Tory party at prayer’ but it looks like the seats of both the archbishops within England – Canterbury and York – will be firmly in Labour hands for some years to come (and the Conservatives may well not hold the seats containing ancient cathedrals such as Durham, Lincoln, Winchester, Norwich, Exeter, Peterborough …. either). This almost unique hole in a doughnut constituency will remain red in colour, and left of centre in flavour – if holes can have a flavour.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.8% 473/575
Owner occupied 53.2% 475/575
Private rented 28.1% 78/575
Social rented 18.7% 186/575
White 90.3% 288/575
Black 0.9% 340/575
Asian 5.3% 256/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 353/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.8% 395/575
Degree level 38.5% 139/575
No qualifications 12.7% 517/575
Students 23.2% 14/575
General Election 2019: York Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Rachael Maskell 27,312 55.2 –10.0
Conservative Fabia Tate 13,767 27.8 –2.4
Liberal Democrats James Blanchard 4,149 8.4 +3.7
Green Tom Franklin 2,107 4.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Szkiler 1,479 3.0
Yorkshire Andrew Snedden 557 1.1
SDP Andrew Dunn 134 0.3
Lab Majority 13,545 27.4 –7.6
Turnout 49,717 66.0 –3.7
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 3.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
York Central consists of
98.6% of York Central
3.3% of York Outer
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_542_York%20Central_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
York Central, despite its name, contains the large majority of the York urban area. It is surrounded by York Outer, which combines a few suburbs with outlying towns and villages. York Central and Bath have been the only two seats entirely surrounded by another, and this unusual set-up has existed only since 2010. After the forthcoming boundary changes, it will no longer apply to Bath, but it will to Warwick & Leamington, now to be encompassed by the revised lines of Kenilworth & Southam. The clear predecessor seat was the City of York, which had sent members to the Commons since 1265. The current MP is Rachael Maskell, who held various shadow ministerial posts under Jeremy Corbyn, and her two predecessors, Labour's Hugh Bayley, and the Conservative Conal Gregory, are both still with us.
The seat covers the heavily touristified centre of York, with its famous Minster and near-complete circuit of walls. To the west, it extends to the edge of the built-up area, excludes only the outermost suburbs to the south and east, but to the north it is more tightly drawn. It includes substantial council estates in Acomb, Clifton, and Tang Hall, small terraced housing around Hull Road and South Bank (the first area popular with students, and the second with left-leaning professionals), and privately owned suburbia around Heworth and Boroughbridge Road.
Until 1918, the constituency had two seats, which from the rise of the party system were often divided between the Whigs and the Tories, or later, the Conservatives and the Liberals. Reduction to one seat saw the end of a serious Liberal challenge, and Labour became competitive, winning the seat in 1929, 1945, and then holding it from 1966 to 1983, and 1992 on. York Central, shorn of some outer suburbs, is a safe Labour seat, with party managing a 27.4% majority over the Conservatives in 2019.
The Boundary Commission's proposals make only minor changes to the two York constituencies, realigning with new ward boundaries, but there is one effect of significance. As the whole of the Hull Road ward is now included, this brings in the campus of York University itself. This simple change means that the demographic figures of York Central are altered, so that, for example, the percentage of full time students rises to 23.2%, lifting it to 14th place in the list of constituencies in England and Wales on this criterion using the 2021 census figures. In 2011, on the former boundaries, York Central was placed outside the top twenty in 44th place, because the student population was split between those on campus in York Outer and the many thousands with rented lodgings and houses within the city itself (there is also York St John university too, which did exceptionally well in the 2023 national student satisfaction survey). The knock-on effects see the percentages of professional and managerial, and routine and semi-routine workers all decline, as do both those with degrees and with no educational qualifications. It also helps to keep York Central in the quartile of seats with the fewest aged 65 plus. It also may further strengthen Labour’s electoral position, as Hull Road ward returned a full slate of Labour councillors in May 2023, for example (as it has ever since 1979), with a share of over 50%, with the Tories trailing in fourth place with well under 10%. However there will be a question mark about turnout, particularly if the general elections should fall outside term time.
The city of York is not highly owner occupied as far as housing tenure is concerned. Not only is the seat as a whole nearly 20% social rented, but private renting reaches 45% in the City Centre MSOA in the 2021 census, Tang Hall 37%, Holgate East over 32%. There are only clear majorities of owner occupiers in Heworth North and the non-council estate part of Acomb, which is probably the closest thing to a suburb within the York Central seat. There are quite high percentages of professional and managerial workers in inner west York, the MSOAs of Howgate East, Rawclife & Clifton South and also in the non-Tang Hall parts of Heworth ward. But these are not the Tory type. There is a high level of public sector employment here, as well as the academic elements. However York also has a strong industrial and trade union tradition, for example through its role as a major railway centre. This is not, overall, a wealthy town for all the magnificent architecture in the centre. The tourism industry, for example produces a lot of poorly paid and insecure jobs.
In recent years, the largest party on the council has alternated between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have often been in pole position, but their strength is in York Outer, and after the all out City of York elections in May 2023 they hold only one of the three Westfield seats in the area covered by this constituency. Labour won all the rest in 2023 (and took control of the council), dominant in city centre wards like Fishergate, Guildhall, Holgate and Micklegate and those further out towards the edge of the city such as Acomb, Heworth (which includes Tang Hall) and Clifton. However the Greens have won both Fishergate seats, and one in both Micklegate and Guildhall, as recently as May 2019. The Conservatives are nowhere at the local level, their best performance anywhere in 2023 being their top candidate’s 17.8% in suburban Acomb. Overall, summing the May 2023 results within the constituency, Labour received a share of almost exactly 60%, Greens 16%, Liberal Democrats 13%, and Conservatives 10%.
The Tories will probably not finish fourth in the next general election, but they will not challenge for victory in York Central any time soon. The tenure of Conal Gregory at the height of the Thatcher years seems a very long time ago indeed here. It may seem counterintuitive at first, given the historical characterisation of the Church of England as ‘the Tory party at prayer’ but it looks like the seats of both the archbishops within England – Canterbury and York – will be firmly in Labour hands for some years to come (and the Conservatives may well not hold the seats containing ancient cathedrals such as Durham, Lincoln, Winchester, Norwich, Exeter, Peterborough …. either). This almost unique hole in a doughnut constituency will remain red in colour, and left of centre in flavour – if holes can have a flavour.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.8% 473/575
Owner occupied 53.2% 475/575
Private rented 28.1% 78/575
Social rented 18.7% 186/575
White 90.3% 288/575
Black 0.9% 340/575
Asian 5.3% 256/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 353/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.8% 395/575
Degree level 38.5% 139/575
No qualifications 12.7% 517/575
Students 23.2% 14/575
General Election 2019: York Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Rachael Maskell 27,312 55.2 –10.0
Conservative Fabia Tate 13,767 27.8 –2.4
Liberal Democrats James Blanchard 4,149 8.4 +3.7
Green Tom Franklin 2,107 4.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Szkiler 1,479 3.0
Yorkshire Andrew Snedden 557 1.1
SDP Andrew Dunn 134 0.3
Lab Majority 13,545 27.4 –7.6
Turnout 49,717 66.0 –3.7
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 3.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
York Central consists of
98.6% of York Central
3.3% of York Outer
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_542_York%20Central_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 28260 | 56.4% |
| Con | 13918 | 27.8% |
| LD | 3919 | 7.8% |
| Green | 2098 | 4.2% |
| Brexit | 1216 | 2.4% |
| Oths | 691 | 1.4% |
| Lab Majority | 14342 | 28.6% |
