willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on Nov 17, 2023 20:36:56 GMT
People often mock Diane these days, but had she been elected Labour leader (say in 2010, when she actually stood) then I think she'd have had a good chance of leading the party to victory. She has a background that displays social mobility and hard graft, she built up a reputation as a solid and seasoned media performer (always important in modern politics) via her late-night programme with Michael Portillo and Andrew Neil and she always speaks her mind and doesn't rely on spin. She also isn't a hardcore ideologue, given that she was willing to take advantage of the private education system regarding her son.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 17, 2023 22:12:20 GMT
Well it's a point of view.
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 17, 2023 22:14:07 GMT
It would have made for a very different contest in 2015. One of Labour's biggest problems in that election was that they couldn't decide whether they were following Milliband's left-wing instincts or Ball's more centrist ones, and so didn't mange much in the way of consistent messaging. An Abbott leadership in 2010 could quite plausibly have brought Labour a voteshare similar to what they actually got in 2017 (assuming she didn't put her foot in it more than Corbyn did), and probably would have reduced he movement of the anti-establishment vote to UKIP and the Greens during that Parliament.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 17, 2023 22:59:54 GMT
Falkirk - Diane Abbott is unlikely to fall like a ton of bricks on Karie Murphy. Collins review or something similar proposes OMOV. Abbott isn't going to push it through against the unions so there's a fudge. Registered Supporters are introduced but the electoral college stays.
Syria - Lib Dems less keen on working with Diane Abbott, free vote and Cameron gets his war.
Ukip - stymied by Abbott's anti establishment rehtoric so attack the party for not being British enough. Emily Thornberry isn't sacked for her photo but has to issue an apology which Abbott defends.
SNP - maybe still win a Maj not sure. Divisions in labour over Abbott refusing to stand side by side with Clegg and Cameron in ref. Ref closer but still a no vote.
GE - labour commit to rail nationalisation and abolishing tuition, but it's not a good campaign. Labour still win city of Chester, Lancaster and Fleetwood, etc. But also Hallam, and a couple other lefty studenty places. Labour still lose some of their red wall seats tho maybe the Tories don't target Morley so much as Balls isn't shadow chancellor. But labour do lose further red wall seats like Barrow and Copeland.
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Post by jakegb on Nov 18, 2023 13:40:50 GMT
A disaster.
If she had been elected in 2010, I would have imagined her getting booted out of leadership in 11/12, due to a never-ending series of gaffes.
Even if she survived to the election, a large chunk of the 2019 red wall would have fallen, with UKIP's sizeable share of the vote allowing the Tories through the middle. Scotland would still have fallen to the SNP.
Likely result - a very convincing win for Cameron, though SNP and UKIP would still have been a big thorn in his side.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2023 13:21:37 GMT
People often mock Diane these days, but had she been elected Labour leader (say in 2010, when she actually stood) then I think she'd have had a good chance of leading the party to victory. She has a background that displays social mobility and hard graft, she built up a reputation as a solid and seasoned media performer (always important in modern politics) via her late-night programme with Michael Portillo and Andrew Neil and she always speaks her mind and doesn't rely on spin. She also isn't a hardcore ideologue, given that she was willing to take advantage of the private education system regarding her son. Something that has been held against her by quite a few left wingers ever since (it certainly got mentioned in that 2010 leadership bid) As mentioned by other posters, there is also the matter of Diane's gaffes to consider - even at her most able as a politician she was prone to them. And all in all 2010 was too soon for Labour to elect an explicitly left wing leader, it only happened five years later due to several things coming together. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 21, 2023 13:35:34 GMT
People often mock Diane these days, but had she been elected Labour leader (say in 2010, when she actually stood) then I think she'd have had a good chance of leading the party to victory. She has a background that displays social mobility and hard graft, she built up a reputation as a solid and seasoned media performer (always important in modern politics) via her late-night programme with Michael Portillo and Andrew Neil and she always speaks her mind and doesn't rely on spin. She also isn't a hardcore ideologue, given that she was willing to take advantage of the private education system regarding her son. Something that has been held against her by quite a few left wingers ever since (it certainly got mentioned in that 2010 leadership bid) As mentioned by other posters, there is also the matter of Diane's gaffes to consider - even at her most able as a politician she was prone to them. And all in all 2010 was too soon for Labour to elect an explicitly left wing leader, it only happened five years later due to several things coming together. I did see raw figures a few years ago from 2010 where if it had been omov then Diane Abbott would have come third instead of last. I also saw a breakdown of the 2015 vote which showed Corbyn got 38% of the vote amongst pre 2010 members. As you say 2015 was the culmination of a number of events. 2010 was always going to be a battle between the two Milibands. The unions were far happier to back Ed Miliband than they were to back Andy Burnham in 2015. Had the Welfare Bill been in 2010 would that have had an affect on the 2010 leadership race. The membership of the party became more left wing between 2010 to 2015 as most the 40 thousand members who joined in that time were more left wing. Undoubtedly the 180 thousand that then joined in 2015 were more likely to be on the left. But clearly in 2010 Diane Abbott didn't inspire the same kind of recruitment. Even when Abbott stood for mayor she only came third despite Corbyn becoming leader |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2023 13:41:31 GMT
Something that has been held against her by quite a few left wingers ever since (it certainly got mentioned in that 2010 leadership bid) As mentioned by other posters, there is also the matter of Diane's gaffes to consider - even at her most able as a politician she was prone to them. And all in all 2010 was too soon for Labour to elect an explicitly left wing leader, it only happened five years later due to several things coming together. I did see raw figures a few years ago from 2010 where if it had been omov then Diane Abbott would have come third instead of last. Yes, but still well behind David and Ed. The party establishment would not have handled a welfare bill type situation the same way in the summer of 2010 either - that was caused by a collective nervous breakdown after losing an election that they fully expected to be at worst a stalemate. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 21, 2023 13:43:11 GMT
I did see raw figures a few years ago from 2010 where if it had been omov then Diane Abbott would have come third instead of last. Yes, but still well behind David and Ed. The party establishment would not have handled a welfare bill type situation the same way in the summer of 2010 either - that was caused by a collective nervous breakdown after losing an election that they fully expected to be at worst a stalemate. yes that's a fair point |
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Post by stb12 on Nov 21, 2023 14:37:39 GMT
I did see raw figures a few years ago from 2010 where if it had been omov then Diane Abbott would have come third instead of last. Yes, but still well behind David and Ed. The party establishment would not have handled a welfare bill type situation the same way in the summer of 2010 either - that was caused by a collective nervous breakdown after losing an election that they fully expected to be at worst a stalemate. Do you mean 2015 or was there other welfare bill controversy in 2010 as well? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2023 12:37:14 GMT
No, the question was a hypothetical one - but there is little doubt the party would have reacted a bit differently (even with the same stand in leader!)
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Post by swingometer on Apr 9, 2024 11:54:21 GMT
People often mock Diane these days, but had she been elected Labour leader (say in 2010, when she actually stood) then I think she'd have had a good chance of leading the party to victory. She has a background that displays social mobility and hard graft, she built up a reputation as a solid and seasoned media performer (always important in modern politics) via her late-night programme with Michael Portillo and Andrew Neil and she always speaks her mind and doesn't rely on spin. She also isn't a hardcore ideologue, given that she was willing to take advantage of the private education system regarding her son. Despite being on the opposite end of the scale politically, I’ve always admired her and seen her as a pleasant if naive person. |
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