Post by Robert Waller on Nov 15, 2023 22:49:16 GMT
The first in alphabetical order of all the constituencies in the United Kingdom has been Aberavon, ever since its creation in 1918. Despite the major boundary changes in Wales to be enacted at the next general election, following the reduction in its representation from 40 seats to 32 to bring it into line with the other three countries, this remains the case. Indeed the name creeps even nearer to the very beginning of the alphabet, with the use of the Welsh version Aberafan. To recognise that over a quarter (26.4%, or 15,200 electors) of the abolished constituency of Ogmore has been added, the town of Maesteg in the Llynfi valley is recognised in a constituency name for the first time.
Both Aberavon and Ogmore have been Labour constituencies for over a century, the former since the party leader Ramsay MacDonald defeated a Coalition Liberal on 1922, the latter since its creation in 1918. In the most recent local elections in May 2022, Labour shared the representation of both Maesteg wards with Independents, but other parties did not challenge: in each Plaid Cymru polled 13.1%, and in each the Tories received derisory numbers. Their top candidate got 48 votes (3%) in Maesteg East, and 46 votes (2%) in Maesteg West. The same pattern occurred in other Ogmore wards included in this new seat, such as Caerau, also in the Llynfi valley. However, in addition to taking in a tiny part of the former Neath seat (936 votes in hilly, wooded Pelenna ward), Aberafan Maesteg also includes 17% of Bridgend, a constituency won by the Conservatives in the 2019 election. This section is a compact unit of two wards, Pyle and Cornelly, south of Margam but north of Porthcawl - which remains in Bridgend. Nevertheless, this section too should not weaken Labour’s grip as Pyle was strongly Labour in 2022 with their top candidate taking 72.5%, while Cornelly was another Labour/Independent split at local level, while Labour outpolled the Tories by three to one.
If the new additions are likely to vote very heavily for Labour in the next general election, the core of the seat inherited from Aberavon will do the same. Although named Aberafan (mouth of the River Afan), this section is based on the large town of Port Talbot (population over 31,000 in 2021). Here we are in the flat coastal strip between the sea (Swansea Bay) and the inland South Welsh mountains and valleys. The economy is dominated by the huge Abbey (Margam) steelworks, the largest in Britain. It now employs about 4,000 workers directly and is owned by the Indian Tata Steel company, but steel has been produced in Port Talbot since 1901, sometimes nationalised, sometimes privatised, and at one time in the 1960s the industry employed over 18,000. The future of the steelworks has become increasingly uncertain and insecure.
There is also the eponymous port, both an inner set of floating docks and an outer tidal basin. The residential areas are predominantly characterised by long straight terraces of working class housing in the centre and the very large social housing estate of Sandfields, along with an ugly modern town centre. This area is also known for producing actors: Anthony Hopkins (Margam), Michael Sheen (Port Talbot) and Richard Burton (Pontrhydyfen), but also closer to politics the unlikely duo of Clive Jenkins and Sir Geoffrey Howe.
In the May 2022 Neath Port Talbot county borough elections, Labour’s main rivalries were with Plaid Cymru, despite the fact that in December 2019 the Nationalists had finished fourth in the Aberavon constituency with less than 9% of the total vote. Labour win easily in the two Sandfields wards and in (central) Port Talbot ward itself, and more narrowly in Margam and Tai-bach south of the town and on the way to the added ex-Bridgend section. Representation was shared in the confusingly titled Aberavon ward (a name also used for a specific section of Port Talbpt between Sandfields and the M4 motorway. But continuing north towards Neath, Labour took Baglan ward, which as will be seen below is the (relatively) most socially upmarket in the Port Talbot area.
Inland, Aberavon already included the ‘valley wards’ of Bryn & Cwmavon, Cymmer, Gwynfi and Glyncorrwg, this last a remote ex-industrial village or small town set at the head of the blind valley of Afan – the road goes no further, and it does feel a little like the ‘back of beyond’. Representation of these areas in May 2022 was preponderantly Independent. Finally, Independents also took both wards in Briton Ferry, at the mouth of the River Neath, but Labour were well ahead of Plaid Cymru in these. In addition to the territory picked up as the Aberafan Maesteg electorate has expanded overall by about 19,000, the three wards of Coedffranc, which include the community of Skewen and Llandarcy, formerly site of another massive industrial complex, an oil refinery active between 1918 and 1998, are transferred out to the new pairing of Neath & Swansea East. In 2022 these three wards produced a mixed bag of local election results, adding up to two Labour, two Liberal Democrats and one Green.
A feature of the substantial boundary changes here is that the seat is notably (even) more working class in nature than Aberavon was. Not only is it now one of the 20 in England and Wales highest in routine and semi-routine workers, but it is actually 4th out of 575 on the semi-routine list (and 7th out if 575 for lower supervisory workers as well). The percentage with no educational qualifications is also now just into the top 20 (on the old boundaries Aberavon was 54th on this variable and 57th on routine/semi-routine workers). This is not only because of the arrival of the ex-Ogmore section, though Caerau for example had even more residents without qualifications (35.3%) than Sandfields (33%, the most in the former constituency), but because the Skewen area which has departed was actually the least working class in occupational terms (only 22% routine or semi-routine, even less than the remaining Baglan (25%). Pyle and Cornelly, entering from Bridgend, are also very working class (35% on this indicator).
If this were England, at least at the time of the 2019 general election, such extreme educational and occupational statistics would not necessarily be good news for Labour. It is also true that the small ethnic minority population has become significantly smaller still, because there were actually Black and Asian communities in Skewen, but not really in the Ogmore valleys. But this is Wales. Loyalty to the Labour party here has not become so associated with ethnic minorities or so divorced from the traditional working class, including those of lesser educational achievement. Despite the 14% drop in Stephen Kinnock’s share in 2019 and the third place taken by the Brexit party, there wasn’t a serious threat to Labour’s long tenure in Aberavon and it looks like there will be even less obstacle to an initial thumping majority in the inaugural contest in this industrial and ex-industrial citadel of Aberafan Maesteg. The only loss is through the reduction of seats in this round of the Boundary Commission’s work, with the end of anomalous undersized electorates like that of Aberavon (50,747 in December 2019) and the destruction of the excessive number of constituencies, as in the case of Ogmore.
Some elements of this profile are based, with thanks, on information in that by Penddu on the previous board.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 225/575
Owner occupied 64.4% 325/575
Private rented 15.7% 404/575
Social rented 19.9% 146/575
White 96.9% 73/575
Black 0.2% 542/575
Asian 1.5% 445/575
No religion 52.5% 10/575
Managerial & professional 22.6% 529/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.9% 19/575
Semi-routine 16.6% 4/575
Lower supervisory 8.3% 7/575
Degree level 23.7% 517/575
No qualifications 27.0% 20/575
Students 5.5% 304/575
2019 General Election: Aberavon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Stephen Kinnock 17,008 53.8 −14.3
Conservative Charlotte Lang 6,518 20.6 +2.9
Brexit Party Glenda Davies 3,108 9.8
Plaid Cymru Nigel Hunt 2,711 8.6 +0.3
Liberal Democrats Sheila Kingston-Jones 1,072 3.4 +1.6
Independent Captain Beany 731 2.3
Green Giorgia Finney 450 1.4
Lab Majority 10,490 33.2 −17.2
2019 electorate 50,747
Turnout 31,598 62.3 −4.4
Registered electors 50,747
Labour hold
Swing 8.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Aberafan Maesteg comprises
83.8% of Aberavon
26.4% of Ogmore
17.2% of Bridgend
1.6% of Neath
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Both Aberavon and Ogmore have been Labour constituencies for over a century, the former since the party leader Ramsay MacDonald defeated a Coalition Liberal on 1922, the latter since its creation in 1918. In the most recent local elections in May 2022, Labour shared the representation of both Maesteg wards with Independents, but other parties did not challenge: in each Plaid Cymru polled 13.1%, and in each the Tories received derisory numbers. Their top candidate got 48 votes (3%) in Maesteg East, and 46 votes (2%) in Maesteg West. The same pattern occurred in other Ogmore wards included in this new seat, such as Caerau, also in the Llynfi valley. However, in addition to taking in a tiny part of the former Neath seat (936 votes in hilly, wooded Pelenna ward), Aberafan Maesteg also includes 17% of Bridgend, a constituency won by the Conservatives in the 2019 election. This section is a compact unit of two wards, Pyle and Cornelly, south of Margam but north of Porthcawl - which remains in Bridgend. Nevertheless, this section too should not weaken Labour’s grip as Pyle was strongly Labour in 2022 with their top candidate taking 72.5%, while Cornelly was another Labour/Independent split at local level, while Labour outpolled the Tories by three to one.
If the new additions are likely to vote very heavily for Labour in the next general election, the core of the seat inherited from Aberavon will do the same. Although named Aberafan (mouth of the River Afan), this section is based on the large town of Port Talbot (population over 31,000 in 2021). Here we are in the flat coastal strip between the sea (Swansea Bay) and the inland South Welsh mountains and valleys. The economy is dominated by the huge Abbey (Margam) steelworks, the largest in Britain. It now employs about 4,000 workers directly and is owned by the Indian Tata Steel company, but steel has been produced in Port Talbot since 1901, sometimes nationalised, sometimes privatised, and at one time in the 1960s the industry employed over 18,000. The future of the steelworks has become increasingly uncertain and insecure.
There is also the eponymous port, both an inner set of floating docks and an outer tidal basin. The residential areas are predominantly characterised by long straight terraces of working class housing in the centre and the very large social housing estate of Sandfields, along with an ugly modern town centre. This area is also known for producing actors: Anthony Hopkins (Margam), Michael Sheen (Port Talbot) and Richard Burton (Pontrhydyfen), but also closer to politics the unlikely duo of Clive Jenkins and Sir Geoffrey Howe.
In the May 2022 Neath Port Talbot county borough elections, Labour’s main rivalries were with Plaid Cymru, despite the fact that in December 2019 the Nationalists had finished fourth in the Aberavon constituency with less than 9% of the total vote. Labour win easily in the two Sandfields wards and in (central) Port Talbot ward itself, and more narrowly in Margam and Tai-bach south of the town and on the way to the added ex-Bridgend section. Representation was shared in the confusingly titled Aberavon ward (a name also used for a specific section of Port Talbpt between Sandfields and the M4 motorway. But continuing north towards Neath, Labour took Baglan ward, which as will be seen below is the (relatively) most socially upmarket in the Port Talbot area.
Inland, Aberavon already included the ‘valley wards’ of Bryn & Cwmavon, Cymmer, Gwynfi and Glyncorrwg, this last a remote ex-industrial village or small town set at the head of the blind valley of Afan – the road goes no further, and it does feel a little like the ‘back of beyond’. Representation of these areas in May 2022 was preponderantly Independent. Finally, Independents also took both wards in Briton Ferry, at the mouth of the River Neath, but Labour were well ahead of Plaid Cymru in these. In addition to the territory picked up as the Aberafan Maesteg electorate has expanded overall by about 19,000, the three wards of Coedffranc, which include the community of Skewen and Llandarcy, formerly site of another massive industrial complex, an oil refinery active between 1918 and 1998, are transferred out to the new pairing of Neath & Swansea East. In 2022 these three wards produced a mixed bag of local election results, adding up to two Labour, two Liberal Democrats and one Green.
A feature of the substantial boundary changes here is that the seat is notably (even) more working class in nature than Aberavon was. Not only is it now one of the 20 in England and Wales highest in routine and semi-routine workers, but it is actually 4th out of 575 on the semi-routine list (and 7th out if 575 for lower supervisory workers as well). The percentage with no educational qualifications is also now just into the top 20 (on the old boundaries Aberavon was 54th on this variable and 57th on routine/semi-routine workers). This is not only because of the arrival of the ex-Ogmore section, though Caerau for example had even more residents without qualifications (35.3%) than Sandfields (33%, the most in the former constituency), but because the Skewen area which has departed was actually the least working class in occupational terms (only 22% routine or semi-routine, even less than the remaining Baglan (25%). Pyle and Cornelly, entering from Bridgend, are also very working class (35% on this indicator).
If this were England, at least at the time of the 2019 general election, such extreme educational and occupational statistics would not necessarily be good news for Labour. It is also true that the small ethnic minority population has become significantly smaller still, because there were actually Black and Asian communities in Skewen, but not really in the Ogmore valleys. But this is Wales. Loyalty to the Labour party here has not become so associated with ethnic minorities or so divorced from the traditional working class, including those of lesser educational achievement. Despite the 14% drop in Stephen Kinnock’s share in 2019 and the third place taken by the Brexit party, there wasn’t a serious threat to Labour’s long tenure in Aberavon and it looks like there will be even less obstacle to an initial thumping majority in the inaugural contest in this industrial and ex-industrial citadel of Aberafan Maesteg. The only loss is through the reduction of seats in this round of the Boundary Commission’s work, with the end of anomalous undersized electorates like that of Aberavon (50,747 in December 2019) and the destruction of the excessive number of constituencies, as in the case of Ogmore.
Some elements of this profile are based, with thanks, on information in that by Penddu on the previous board.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 225/575
Owner occupied 64.4% 325/575
Private rented 15.7% 404/575
Social rented 19.9% 146/575
White 96.9% 73/575
Black 0.2% 542/575
Asian 1.5% 445/575
No religion 52.5% 10/575
Managerial & professional 22.6% 529/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.9% 19/575
Semi-routine 16.6% 4/575
Lower supervisory 8.3% 7/575
Degree level 23.7% 517/575
No qualifications 27.0% 20/575
Students 5.5% 304/575
2019 General Election: Aberavon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Stephen Kinnock 17,008 53.8 −14.3
Conservative Charlotte Lang 6,518 20.6 +2.9
Brexit Party Glenda Davies 3,108 9.8
Plaid Cymru Nigel Hunt 2,711 8.6 +0.3
Liberal Democrats Sheila Kingston-Jones 1,072 3.4 +1.6
Independent Captain Beany 731 2.3
Green Giorgia Finney 450 1.4
Lab Majority 10,490 33.2 −17.2
2019 electorate 50,747
Turnout 31,598 62.3 −4.4
Registered electors 50,747
Labour hold
Swing 8.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Aberafan Maesteg comprises
83.8% of Aberavon
26.4% of Ogmore
17.2% of Bridgend
1.6% of Neath
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 23509 | 52.9% |
| Con | 10052 | 22.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 3991 | 9.0% |
| Brexit | 3794 | 8.5% |
| Lib Dem | 1645 | 3.7% |
| Green | 701 | 1.6% |
| Oth | 731 | 1.7% |
| Majority | 13457 | 30.3% |