Post by andrewp on Nov 10, 2023 14:22:17 GMT
With credit to greenhert who did the original profile here, and on which this is based.
If one found oneself in the centre of either of the Cornish towns of Camborne or Redruth one could be forgiven for not realising that one was in the county of a beautiful coastline, sandy beaches, tourist hotspots, an issue with second home ownership pricing locals out of the housing market, and spots of serious wealth. There is still some of that in this constituency but less than we find elsewhere in Cornwall. Indeed in the core of this constituency one could be forgiven for thinking one were in an industrial town in Northern England.
The core of this constituency is the neighbouring titular towns of Camborne ( population 20,000) and Redruth ( 16,000). The two towns are, however, only 3 miles apart and including the settlements in between the towns of Pool, Illogan and Carn Brea there is one continuous built up area of about 55000 people.
Both Redruth and Camborne grew in the 19th century on the back of the Cornish mining industry. Camborne used to be the hub of the Cornish tin mining industry, with the last tin mine at South Crofty closing in 1998. Because of the importance of tin mining to Camborne and Cornwall as a whole, the Cornwall School of Mines was opened there and dedicated itself to advanced mining; it now forms part of the Penryn Campus of the University of Exeter. Redruth contains the Cornish Studies Centre, dedicated to the Cornish language and Cornish history, and was an important copper mining centre given the importance of brass in the Industrial Revolution. Both towns have suffered hardships as they have transitioned away from the traditional mining industries and today feel like working class down at heel towns.
This constituency in its present form was created in 2010, when Cornwall was granted a 6th and extra constituency which caused the break up of some long standing constituency links. This seat was mainly derived from the Falmouth & Camborne constituency without the town of Falmouth itself but also including the eastern edge of the former St Ives constituency in the form of the town of Hayle. It mostly shares its boundaries with the now defunct Kerrier district of Cornwall.
The town of Hayle ( population 9000) , situated to the West of Camborne and Redruth and at the side of the estuary of the Hayle river was once a key engineering centre, supplying bromine for aircraft fuel and explosives for military aircraft, although most engineering facilities there have long since gone.
The boundary changes that will come into force here for the 2024 election, like most of Cornwall, are relatively minor. St Ives constituency to the west of this constituency needed its electorate topping up slightly and there was only one place those extra voters could come from. About 2000 voters to the east of Helston are moved from this constituency to St Ives and In addition about 3000 voters around Budock Water on the outskirts of Falmouth are moved from here into Falmouth and Truro. This constituency in turn needs to look east for extra electors to remain within quota. About 8000 electors along the north coast in the seaside sandy beach villages of Perranporth and St Agnes are moved into the seat from Falmouth and Truro.
Politically these changes around the edges of the constituency probably dont have much political effect overall. All the areas moving both in and out would have favoured the Conservatives over Labour in 2019. The Labour vote is based in the titular towns. The changes do however change the geographical shape of the constituency. Currently this seat, on a map, is a dog leg around the ankle of Cornwall, and previously when its predecessor seat elected a Labour MP in 1997 and 2001 gave the appearance of a yellow leg ( Cornwall) with a red ankle band ( Falmouth and Camborne) . Following those boundary changes, the constituency will be a rather awkward T shape with a broad top along the North coast and a rather thin straggly base running down to a very short stretch of the south coast.
Camborne & Redruth's qualification levels are only slightly below average. IT ranks in the top 50 constituencies for people in semi routine jobs, and just outside the top 50 constituencies nationally for those working for small employers and for the percentage of people with apprenticeships. This is a constituency with a lot of small business and self employed people and there are very few large companies here. Its demographics are mostly average. There is a considerable amount of council housing remaining, although it is now 67.1% owner occupied. 43.7% of people are over 50 and, like most of Cornwall, is very white ( 96.9%)
In the 2021 local elections, the Conservatives did very well in Cornwall. In the divisions in this new constituency, they won 11 of the 15 divisions. Labour and the Liberal Democrat’s won 1 each and 2 independents were elected. The Conservatives won 2 out of the 3 divisions in Camborne and 2 out of 3 in Redruth with Labour inching home by 6 votes in Redruth North for their only win here. The Conservative winner in Redruth Central, Carharrack and St Day was Connor Donnithorne, a 27 year old owner of a fish chip shop situated at Porthtowan on the north coast of this constituency, and who in 2023 was selected as the Conservative parliamentary candidate to succeed retiring MP George Eustice here.
In the past Camborne switched between the Liberals and Conservatives frequently, and the Conservatives only held on in 1945 due to split opposition between the Liberals and Labour. The Conservative MP in question, Peter Agnew, was one of only a handful of Conservative MPs defeated in 1950 when Labour's Harold Hayman unseated him in Falmouth & Camborne. Mr Hayman represented the seat for the next 16 years until his death in 1966, to be succeeded by John Dunwoody whose wife Gwyneth was elected in Exeter the same year. Both lost their seats in 1970 and they divorced in 1975, one year after Mrs Dunwoody returned to Parliament via Crewe. David Mudd represented Falmouth & Camborne for the Conservatives from 1970-92 and athelete Sebastian Coe held on in 1992 against a strong Liberal Democrat challenge from Terrye Jones, later Terrye Teverson upon her marriage to former MEP Robin Teverson. Mr Coe as he was then lasted five years before his defeat by Labour's Candy Atherton, whose selection was controversial because of the imposition of the All-Women Shortlist, leading to local councillor John Geach standing against her as an Independent in protest; he only polled 1,691 votes (3.2%). The Liberal Democrats did eventually catch up after this setback and Julia Goldsworthy defeated Ms Atherton in 2005, making her the first Liberal/Liberal Democrat MP in Camborne since 1929. It also meant that from 2005-10, Cornwall was the only county represented entirely by Liberal Democrat MPs. Ms Goldsworthy was surprisingly defeated in 2010 in Camborne & Redruth, losing by only 66 votes to George Eustice, even though her vote share notionally increased by 1.6%, mainly due to traditional Labour voters not willing to vote for her tactically. In 2015, Ms Goldsworthy stood her again but dropped to 4th place and just 12.4% of the vote, and Labour regained second place with ease. Labour reduced Mr Eustice's majority to just 1,577 in 2017 but in a traditionally working-class seat with a higher than average Brexit vote, it was no surprise that there was a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative in 2019.
We await the official notional results but i suspect the Conservative majority in 2019 of 8700 or 17.3% will be boosted slightly by the boundary changes. I also think that the slightly polarised nature of this constituency of Labour voting towns and some surrounding areas where Labour has its work cut out may lead to a smaller than average swing here. However if Labour achieve the likely looking double figure lead nationally, then they should take this seat and will be grateful for Falmouth being in a different constituency to Camborne and Redruth which could well deliver 2 Labour seats in Cornwall for the first time.
If one found oneself in the centre of either of the Cornish towns of Camborne or Redruth one could be forgiven for not realising that one was in the county of a beautiful coastline, sandy beaches, tourist hotspots, an issue with second home ownership pricing locals out of the housing market, and spots of serious wealth. There is still some of that in this constituency but less than we find elsewhere in Cornwall. Indeed in the core of this constituency one could be forgiven for thinking one were in an industrial town in Northern England.
The core of this constituency is the neighbouring titular towns of Camborne ( population 20,000) and Redruth ( 16,000). The two towns are, however, only 3 miles apart and including the settlements in between the towns of Pool, Illogan and Carn Brea there is one continuous built up area of about 55000 people.
Both Redruth and Camborne grew in the 19th century on the back of the Cornish mining industry. Camborne used to be the hub of the Cornish tin mining industry, with the last tin mine at South Crofty closing in 1998. Because of the importance of tin mining to Camborne and Cornwall as a whole, the Cornwall School of Mines was opened there and dedicated itself to advanced mining; it now forms part of the Penryn Campus of the University of Exeter. Redruth contains the Cornish Studies Centre, dedicated to the Cornish language and Cornish history, and was an important copper mining centre given the importance of brass in the Industrial Revolution. Both towns have suffered hardships as they have transitioned away from the traditional mining industries and today feel like working class down at heel towns.
This constituency in its present form was created in 2010, when Cornwall was granted a 6th and extra constituency which caused the break up of some long standing constituency links. This seat was mainly derived from the Falmouth & Camborne constituency without the town of Falmouth itself but also including the eastern edge of the former St Ives constituency in the form of the town of Hayle. It mostly shares its boundaries with the now defunct Kerrier district of Cornwall.
The town of Hayle ( population 9000) , situated to the West of Camborne and Redruth and at the side of the estuary of the Hayle river was once a key engineering centre, supplying bromine for aircraft fuel and explosives for military aircraft, although most engineering facilities there have long since gone.
The boundary changes that will come into force here for the 2024 election, like most of Cornwall, are relatively minor. St Ives constituency to the west of this constituency needed its electorate topping up slightly and there was only one place those extra voters could come from. About 2000 voters to the east of Helston are moved from this constituency to St Ives and In addition about 3000 voters around Budock Water on the outskirts of Falmouth are moved from here into Falmouth and Truro. This constituency in turn needs to look east for extra electors to remain within quota. About 8000 electors along the north coast in the seaside sandy beach villages of Perranporth and St Agnes are moved into the seat from Falmouth and Truro.
Politically these changes around the edges of the constituency probably dont have much political effect overall. All the areas moving both in and out would have favoured the Conservatives over Labour in 2019. The Labour vote is based in the titular towns. The changes do however change the geographical shape of the constituency. Currently this seat, on a map, is a dog leg around the ankle of Cornwall, and previously when its predecessor seat elected a Labour MP in 1997 and 2001 gave the appearance of a yellow leg ( Cornwall) with a red ankle band ( Falmouth and Camborne) . Following those boundary changes, the constituency will be a rather awkward T shape with a broad top along the North coast and a rather thin straggly base running down to a very short stretch of the south coast.
Camborne & Redruth's qualification levels are only slightly below average. IT ranks in the top 50 constituencies for people in semi routine jobs, and just outside the top 50 constituencies nationally for those working for small employers and for the percentage of people with apprenticeships. This is a constituency with a lot of small business and self employed people and there are very few large companies here. Its demographics are mostly average. There is a considerable amount of council housing remaining, although it is now 67.1% owner occupied. 43.7% of people are over 50 and, like most of Cornwall, is very white ( 96.9%)
In the 2021 local elections, the Conservatives did very well in Cornwall. In the divisions in this new constituency, they won 11 of the 15 divisions. Labour and the Liberal Democrat’s won 1 each and 2 independents were elected. The Conservatives won 2 out of the 3 divisions in Camborne and 2 out of 3 in Redruth with Labour inching home by 6 votes in Redruth North for their only win here. The Conservative winner in Redruth Central, Carharrack and St Day was Connor Donnithorne, a 27 year old owner of a fish chip shop situated at Porthtowan on the north coast of this constituency, and who in 2023 was selected as the Conservative parliamentary candidate to succeed retiring MP George Eustice here.
In the past Camborne switched between the Liberals and Conservatives frequently, and the Conservatives only held on in 1945 due to split opposition between the Liberals and Labour. The Conservative MP in question, Peter Agnew, was one of only a handful of Conservative MPs defeated in 1950 when Labour's Harold Hayman unseated him in Falmouth & Camborne. Mr Hayman represented the seat for the next 16 years until his death in 1966, to be succeeded by John Dunwoody whose wife Gwyneth was elected in Exeter the same year. Both lost their seats in 1970 and they divorced in 1975, one year after Mrs Dunwoody returned to Parliament via Crewe. David Mudd represented Falmouth & Camborne for the Conservatives from 1970-92 and athelete Sebastian Coe held on in 1992 against a strong Liberal Democrat challenge from Terrye Jones, later Terrye Teverson upon her marriage to former MEP Robin Teverson. Mr Coe as he was then lasted five years before his defeat by Labour's Candy Atherton, whose selection was controversial because of the imposition of the All-Women Shortlist, leading to local councillor John Geach standing against her as an Independent in protest; he only polled 1,691 votes (3.2%). The Liberal Democrats did eventually catch up after this setback and Julia Goldsworthy defeated Ms Atherton in 2005, making her the first Liberal/Liberal Democrat MP in Camborne since 1929. It also meant that from 2005-10, Cornwall was the only county represented entirely by Liberal Democrat MPs. Ms Goldsworthy was surprisingly defeated in 2010 in Camborne & Redruth, losing by only 66 votes to George Eustice, even though her vote share notionally increased by 1.6%, mainly due to traditional Labour voters not willing to vote for her tactically. In 2015, Ms Goldsworthy stood her again but dropped to 4th place and just 12.4% of the vote, and Labour regained second place with ease. Labour reduced Mr Eustice's majority to just 1,577 in 2017 but in a traditionally working-class seat with a higher than average Brexit vote, it was no surprise that there was a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative in 2019.
We await the official notional results but i suspect the Conservative majority in 2019 of 8700 or 17.3% will be boosted slightly by the boundary changes. I also think that the slightly polarised nature of this constituency of Labour voting towns and some surrounding areas where Labour has its work cut out may lead to a smaller than average swing here. However if Labour achieve the likely looking double figure lead nationally, then they should take this seat and will be grateful for Falmouth being in a different constituency to Camborne and Redruth which could well deliver 2 Labour seats in Cornwall for the first time.
