Post by Robert Waller on Nov 10, 2023 10:37:55 GMT
One of two Westminster constituencies largely or wholly in the county Borough and former county of West Lothian, Bathgate & Linlithgow is based on the previous Linlithgow & East Falkirk seat. Like that division, and unlike Livingston, this redrawn constituency includes part of the Falkirk borough as well as West Lothian, but that section has been reduced to just one ward with 11,870 voters, Bo’ness and Blackness. This is because a more populous part of Falkirk - Grangemouth and its environs - has been shifted into the new Alloa & Grangemouth seat. In return, almost exactly 10% of Livingston is moved in, including the area around Winchburgh north of Broxburn, and Seafield west of Livingston itself. Finally, the reduced ‘East Falkirk’ portion is no longer recognised in the name, and is replaced with that of Bathgate, which was already in the constituency, anonymously. This is fitting, as Bathgate (population around 23,000) is larger, if less historically distinguished, than Linlithgow (about 13,000).
Bathgate and Linlithgow is a constituency set between Edinburgh and Glasgow, though more in the orbit of the former city as its positioning predominantly within the Lothian region suggests. Through it passes most of the key links between Scotland’s two biggest cities: the M8 motorway which runs south of Bathgate (the M9 runs north of Linlithgow too, on its way towards Stirling) and two rail lines, one through Bathgate and Armadale and one through Linlithgow and Manuel Junction on the Falkirk line.
The town of Linlithgow has a distinguished history as a royal burgh, the site of a royal palace prominent in the 15th and 16th centuries, and as the former county town of West Lothian (or, indeed, ‘Linlithgowshire’). Under that name it had a UK parliamentary constituency from 1708 to 1950, and then again a seat named just Linlithgow from 1983 to 2005. In the inaugural creation of Scottish parliament seats in 1999 Linlithgow was honoured in the same way - and still is. Linlithgow itself is a mixed town in which all four main parties have been known to poll respectably in a reasonable year, and this is still true. In the unified ward cleared for STV elections, in the most recent contest in May 2022 the SNP finished first, but with only 26.2%. The Liberal Democrats received 20.3%, The Conservatives 19.8%, and Labour 19.5% - one of the closest four way balances anywhere in Scotland. Going back to the pre-STV wards to identify the strength of the various parties in the different neighbourhoods of Linlithgow, the Conservatives were clearly the strongest in the Kingsfield area in the north east of the town, where the golf club of that name and the Linlithgow cricket club are to be found. The Liberal Democrats did best in the Preston ward, along the Preston Road in the south of the town, another predominantly middle class zone. Labour’s greatest area of strength was in the social housing estates in the south west of the town, around Braehead and Hamilton Avenues; this is where Linlithgow Rose football club is to be found. The SNP’s voters were more scattered, though their best ward was St Michael’s in the town centre.
No other part of this seat is as evenly balanced as Linlithgow itself. In Bathgate ward in May 2022 the SNP (42% and Labour (40%) took 82% between them , and the Tories (14%) and especially the Liberal Democrats (2%) were not competitive. Bathgate is what could be characterized as an ex-industrial town multiple times over. In the Industrial Revolution itself it was known for coal mining and chemicals including oil distilled from shale, but all this was gone by the time BMC (later British Leyland) opened a motor manufacturing factory (trucks and tractors) in 1961. It closed in 1986. As technology became ever more advanced, it was the turn of Motorola to open a mobile phone manufacturing plant in Bathgate in 1992. That market slumped in 2001 and the factory was closed after nine years with the loss of over 3,000 jobs. The site is now the Pyramids Business Park, with many smaller ventures. Labour’s greatest strength within Bathgate has been in the Boghall section in the east of the town, but generally ex-council estates are to be found in all its quarters; such as Boghead neighbourhood in its west.
The third West Lothian ward included in Bathgate & Linlithgow is also predominantly working class. It is Whitburn and Blackburn, strung along the A705 road west of Livingston (and including the new addition of Seafield). It is also an SNP-Labour marginal, the former taking 38.6% first preferences in 2022, the latter 37.4%. This resulted in two councillors each under the STV system, with nothing for anyone else despite the Tories getting 18%. Whitburn (population 11,500) was strongly dominated by coal mining, principally the renowned Polkemmet colliery, which closed in 1986 after flooding during the 1984-85 strike. It is another of the ex-manufacturing parts of this constituency; between 1969 and 1999 there was a factory employing 500 that produced jeans for Levi Strauss. Blackburn (6,000), not to be confused with the larger town in England, has large 1950s Glasgow overspill estates, and was previously split with the Livingston seat, as was Seafield a mile or two to its east, which consists almost entirely of housing built for the social rented sector.
The final West Lothian ward is Armadale and Blackridge, west of Bathgate, which looks largely rural on a map but is dominated by the former town, yet another creation of the West Lothian coalfield (Woodend colliery, 1870-1965) and one of the three largest in the constituency with a population estimated at 12,690 in 2021. It is harder to assess its voting patterns as in May 2022 a popular Independent took 49.7% of the first preferences, but the SNP were second and Labour third, and these two parties took the other two available council spots. Independents have led the lists here ever since 2007, though historically the SNP and Labour have done far better than the Conservatives in the Armadale based ward.
Finally, there is still the one ward form the Falkirk council area. This is Bo’ness & Blackness. Bo’ness is short for Borrowstounness, and has a population of nearly 15,000, which makes it the second largest town in the constituency. Just along the Forth east of Grangemouth, it is a long established port (more shipbreaking than shipbuilding) and also had a coal mine until as late as 1982. Like the Armadale based ward, an Independent easily finished top of the poll in 2022, with SNP, Labour and Conservatives taking close order behind with 2%, 18% and 15% respectively. Going back to the May 2017 local elections to eliminate the Independent effect, the SNP were just ahead of the Tories (28% to 26%) with Labour third (21%). It would seem that Bo’ness (Blackness is only a hamlet, a point, a bay and a ruined castle) is the other part of the constituency apart from Linlithgow where the Tories can be competitive in a good year.
Despite the predominantly working class background of most of this sub-region, the Conservatives did finish a clear second in the 2019 general election in Linlithgow and East Falkirk, as Labour’s share fell far more than theirs. This seat has not been an SNP stronghold. Though they have won it since their 2015 landslide, they only had 44% in 2019 and just 36% in 2017, when Labour (30% and Conservative (29%) divided the chief opposition almost equally. That the Nationalist majority over Labour was only 2,919 in 2017 suggests that Bathgate & Linlithgow may be a realistic target for Labour if the SNP woes continue into 2024. However they would have to rise from third place, which apart from anything else will make it harder to convince Conservative voters that they are the best bet as a ‘unionist’ challenger next time. One clue may be that in the 2021 Scottish parliament election in the similar but not identical Linlithgow constituency, Labour did finish second and the Conservatives third, though it does include the working class Broxburn but not the more mixed Bo’ness. Nevertheless, Labour are probably the strongest at present of the anti-Nationalist parties in Bathgate & Linlithgow.
Before 2015 Labour had a strong tradition in West Lothian, most famously as Tam Dalyell was MP for the seat so named, then Linlithgow from 1962 to 2005. His family’s estate, The House of the Binns is just east of Linlithgow (and south of Blackness) in this constituency. There may never be a Bathgate & Linlithgow question as famed as his West Lothian Question, but the initial query here is which of three contending parties will win its inaugural contest, probably in 2024. If it were conducted under a preferential system as council elections in Scotland are, the SNP would be in even greater trouble. As it is, under first past the post it is quite possible that whoever wins will do so with a share of well under 40%.
2011 Census, Linlithgow & East Falkirk
Age 65+ 15.7% 403/650
Owner-occupied 63.0% 430/650
Private rented 8.2% 634/650
Social rented 27.7% 74/650
White 98.5% 52/650
Black 0.2% 516/650
Asian 1.0% 530/650
Managerial & professional 27.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2%
Degree level 21.5% 419/650
No qualifications 27.3% 165/650
Students 5.6% 571/650
2022 Census, Bathgate and Linlithgow
Age 65+ 17.9%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Martyn Day 25,551 44.2 +7.9
Conservative Charles Kennedy 14,285 24.7 -4.4
Labour Wendy Milne 10,517 18.2 -12.9
Liberal Democrats Sally Pattle 4,393 7.6 +4.2
Brexit Party Marc Bozza 1,257 2.2
Scottish Green Gillian Mackay 1,184 2.0
Veterans and People's Mark Tunnicliff 588 1.0 N
SNP Majority 11,266 19.5 +14.3
Turnout 57,775 66.4 +1.7
SNP hold
Swing 6.1 C to SNP
Boundary Changes
Bathgate and Linlithgow consists of
71.4% of Linlithgow & East Falkirk
9.9% of Livingston
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Bathgate_and_Linlithgow.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Bathgate and Linlithgow is a constituency set between Edinburgh and Glasgow, though more in the orbit of the former city as its positioning predominantly within the Lothian region suggests. Through it passes most of the key links between Scotland’s two biggest cities: the M8 motorway which runs south of Bathgate (the M9 runs north of Linlithgow too, on its way towards Stirling) and two rail lines, one through Bathgate and Armadale and one through Linlithgow and Manuel Junction on the Falkirk line.
The town of Linlithgow has a distinguished history as a royal burgh, the site of a royal palace prominent in the 15th and 16th centuries, and as the former county town of West Lothian (or, indeed, ‘Linlithgowshire’). Under that name it had a UK parliamentary constituency from 1708 to 1950, and then again a seat named just Linlithgow from 1983 to 2005. In the inaugural creation of Scottish parliament seats in 1999 Linlithgow was honoured in the same way - and still is. Linlithgow itself is a mixed town in which all four main parties have been known to poll respectably in a reasonable year, and this is still true. In the unified ward cleared for STV elections, in the most recent contest in May 2022 the SNP finished first, but with only 26.2%. The Liberal Democrats received 20.3%, The Conservatives 19.8%, and Labour 19.5% - one of the closest four way balances anywhere in Scotland. Going back to the pre-STV wards to identify the strength of the various parties in the different neighbourhoods of Linlithgow, the Conservatives were clearly the strongest in the Kingsfield area in the north east of the town, where the golf club of that name and the Linlithgow cricket club are to be found. The Liberal Democrats did best in the Preston ward, along the Preston Road in the south of the town, another predominantly middle class zone. Labour’s greatest area of strength was in the social housing estates in the south west of the town, around Braehead and Hamilton Avenues; this is where Linlithgow Rose football club is to be found. The SNP’s voters were more scattered, though their best ward was St Michael’s in the town centre.
No other part of this seat is as evenly balanced as Linlithgow itself. In Bathgate ward in May 2022 the SNP (42% and Labour (40%) took 82% between them , and the Tories (14%) and especially the Liberal Democrats (2%) were not competitive. Bathgate is what could be characterized as an ex-industrial town multiple times over. In the Industrial Revolution itself it was known for coal mining and chemicals including oil distilled from shale, but all this was gone by the time BMC (later British Leyland) opened a motor manufacturing factory (trucks and tractors) in 1961. It closed in 1986. As technology became ever more advanced, it was the turn of Motorola to open a mobile phone manufacturing plant in Bathgate in 1992. That market slumped in 2001 and the factory was closed after nine years with the loss of over 3,000 jobs. The site is now the Pyramids Business Park, with many smaller ventures. Labour’s greatest strength within Bathgate has been in the Boghall section in the east of the town, but generally ex-council estates are to be found in all its quarters; such as Boghead neighbourhood in its west.
The third West Lothian ward included in Bathgate & Linlithgow is also predominantly working class. It is Whitburn and Blackburn, strung along the A705 road west of Livingston (and including the new addition of Seafield). It is also an SNP-Labour marginal, the former taking 38.6% first preferences in 2022, the latter 37.4%. This resulted in two councillors each under the STV system, with nothing for anyone else despite the Tories getting 18%. Whitburn (population 11,500) was strongly dominated by coal mining, principally the renowned Polkemmet colliery, which closed in 1986 after flooding during the 1984-85 strike. It is another of the ex-manufacturing parts of this constituency; between 1969 and 1999 there was a factory employing 500 that produced jeans for Levi Strauss. Blackburn (6,000), not to be confused with the larger town in England, has large 1950s Glasgow overspill estates, and was previously split with the Livingston seat, as was Seafield a mile or two to its east, which consists almost entirely of housing built for the social rented sector.
The final West Lothian ward is Armadale and Blackridge, west of Bathgate, which looks largely rural on a map but is dominated by the former town, yet another creation of the West Lothian coalfield (Woodend colliery, 1870-1965) and one of the three largest in the constituency with a population estimated at 12,690 in 2021. It is harder to assess its voting patterns as in May 2022 a popular Independent took 49.7% of the first preferences, but the SNP were second and Labour third, and these two parties took the other two available council spots. Independents have led the lists here ever since 2007, though historically the SNP and Labour have done far better than the Conservatives in the Armadale based ward.
Finally, there is still the one ward form the Falkirk council area. This is Bo’ness & Blackness. Bo’ness is short for Borrowstounness, and has a population of nearly 15,000, which makes it the second largest town in the constituency. Just along the Forth east of Grangemouth, it is a long established port (more shipbreaking than shipbuilding) and also had a coal mine until as late as 1982. Like the Armadale based ward, an Independent easily finished top of the poll in 2022, with SNP, Labour and Conservatives taking close order behind with 2%, 18% and 15% respectively. Going back to the May 2017 local elections to eliminate the Independent effect, the SNP were just ahead of the Tories (28% to 26%) with Labour third (21%). It would seem that Bo’ness (Blackness is only a hamlet, a point, a bay and a ruined castle) is the other part of the constituency apart from Linlithgow where the Tories can be competitive in a good year.
Despite the predominantly working class background of most of this sub-region, the Conservatives did finish a clear second in the 2019 general election in Linlithgow and East Falkirk, as Labour’s share fell far more than theirs. This seat has not been an SNP stronghold. Though they have won it since their 2015 landslide, they only had 44% in 2019 and just 36% in 2017, when Labour (30% and Conservative (29%) divided the chief opposition almost equally. That the Nationalist majority over Labour was only 2,919 in 2017 suggests that Bathgate & Linlithgow may be a realistic target for Labour if the SNP woes continue into 2024. However they would have to rise from third place, which apart from anything else will make it harder to convince Conservative voters that they are the best bet as a ‘unionist’ challenger next time. One clue may be that in the 2021 Scottish parliament election in the similar but not identical Linlithgow constituency, Labour did finish second and the Conservatives third, though it does include the working class Broxburn but not the more mixed Bo’ness. Nevertheless, Labour are probably the strongest at present of the anti-Nationalist parties in Bathgate & Linlithgow.
Before 2015 Labour had a strong tradition in West Lothian, most famously as Tam Dalyell was MP for the seat so named, then Linlithgow from 1962 to 2005. His family’s estate, The House of the Binns is just east of Linlithgow (and south of Blackness) in this constituency. There may never be a Bathgate & Linlithgow question as famed as his West Lothian Question, but the initial query here is which of three contending parties will win its inaugural contest, probably in 2024. If it were conducted under a preferential system as council elections in Scotland are, the SNP would be in even greater trouble. As it is, under first past the post it is quite possible that whoever wins will do so with a share of well under 40%.
2011 Census, Linlithgow & East Falkirk
Age 65+ 15.7% 403/650
Owner-occupied 63.0% 430/650
Private rented 8.2% 634/650
Social rented 27.7% 74/650
White 98.5% 52/650
Black 0.2% 516/650
Asian 1.0% 530/650
Managerial & professional 27.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2%
Degree level 21.5% 419/650
No qualifications 27.3% 165/650
Students 5.6% 571/650
2022 Census, Bathgate and Linlithgow
Age 65+ 17.9%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Martyn Day 25,551 44.2 +7.9
Conservative Charles Kennedy 14,285 24.7 -4.4
Labour Wendy Milne 10,517 18.2 -12.9
Liberal Democrats Sally Pattle 4,393 7.6 +4.2
Brexit Party Marc Bozza 1,257 2.2
Scottish Green Gillian Mackay 1,184 2.0
Veterans and People's Mark Tunnicliff 588 1.0 N
SNP Majority 11,266 19.5 +14.3
Turnout 57,775 66.4 +1.7
SNP hold
Swing 6.1 C to SNP
Boundary Changes
Bathgate and Linlithgow consists of
71.4% of Linlithgow & East Falkirk
9.9% of Livingston
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Bathgate_and_Linlithgow.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20306 | 43.0% |
| Con | 11635 | 24.6% |
| Lab | 8874 | 18.8% |
| LD | 3881 | 8.2% |
| Green | 1029 | 2.2% |
| Brexit | 904 | 1.9% |
| Oth | 588 | 1.3% |
| Majority | 8671 | 18.4% |
