Post by Robert Waller on Nov 8, 2023 19:38:41 GMT
This is based on the original profile by yellowperil, with boundary changes by Pete Whitehead, and updated by me.
This West Sussex seat is a very extensive constituency by South-East England standards and is almost entirely rural, with more than half its area in the South Downs National Park. Before 1974 much of this was in the old constituency of Arundel & Shoreham, so then containing an urban area of sorts, but since then, although there have been a number of changes since, notably in 1997 and most recently in 2010, the constituency based on Arundel has remained deeply rural. When the constituency was named in 1997, it was seriously suggested naming it as Chanctonbury after the downland hill fort which had once probably been one of the centres of population in the area - back in the Iron Age! Shades of Old Sarum, perhaps. So, deeply rural, but maybe equally deeply Conservative, although it sometimes displays as a rather Liberal brand of Conservatism. It was, for instance, a constituency that voted Remain in 2016 though by the finest of margins-an estimated 50.3% Remain! It does contain two of the great ducal family seats in Arundel Castle and Petworth House and so maybe the Conservative tradition here in some respects is more Whiggish than Tory.
Arundel might be regarded as the principal centre, as the named town in the constituency title, but had less than 3,500 people as recorded in the 2021 census, and Petworth, the only other place that could be called a town, barely 2,500. On the other hand a number of villages on the edges of the Downs have been popular residential and retirement locations and have been allowed to sprawl. Hassocks, a village which only came into being on the coming of the railways , is actually the largest settlement in the current constituency and together with the contiguous village of Hurstpierpoint adds up to a population of 14,000.There are a number of other rather oversized villages: Angmering, Pulborough, Steyning and Storrington are all examples. There are however many tiny villages and hamlets high up on the Downs and deep into the Weald, and linked by a maze of narrow lanes where it is very easy to get lost.
Arundel though small is a major tourist centre, dominated by its grand medieval (if extensively modernised) castle, which remains the seat of the Duke of Norfolk, the hereditary Earl Marshal of England. It also boasts a fine (Roman Catholic) cathedral and a cricket ground hosting matches up to first class standard. These 3C's- Castle, Cathedral, Cricket, say much about the sort of place Arundel is, and maybe also indicates the dominance of the Howard family and their interests and persuasions. There is more than a touch of the feudal about the place, and the Duke still lives in his castle. Tourists are of course drawn to all that, but also to the wonderful Wildfowl and Wetlands centre beneath the castle walls.
Petworth is if anything even more dominated by its own massive mansion, associated with two more of the most significant families of the English aristocracy, the Percys and the Seymours, but now in the hands of the National Trust. Its central grid of streets and miniature town square are, rather appropriately, well supplied with antique shops.
It comes as no surprise that Arundel & South Downs is a Conservative fiefdom, and in some elections this has been a constituency ranked in the top 10 or so of safe Tory seats. On the boundaries in force in 2019 it was split between 4 different district councils, in each case one might feel the most rural and most Tory bits of those four districts all lumped in together! It included 3 wards from Arun, 2 wards from Mid Sussex, 3 from Chichester, and 6 from Horsham. In 2015, there were 35 councillors returned- 34 Conservatives...and one Independent! The Horsham wards were fought for the first time in a new format in 2019, which means there were now 36 councillors in total. 33 Conservatives, 1 Independent...and 2 Greens!
Given the scale of this historic local dominance, the Conservative performance in some recent general elections might be seen as almost modest by comparison. After all, in 2005 the Tory majority had shrunk to a paltry 11,309. By 2015 it was back up at 26,177, and that over UKIP. Nevertheless in 2019 when the Conservatives were making big inroads into Labour territory elsewhere, in this quintessential Tory territory the majority fell back a bit to 22,521 over the Lib Dems who had managed a reasonably respectable 13,045, or 21.2% - maybe a reflection of that marginal Remain tendency.
Since 1997 when the present constituency title was adopted, there have now been 3 MPs, all of them Conservative of course. Howard Flight (1997-2005) had been a Tory deputy chairman (who hasn't?), and Shadow Chief Secretary (2002-4, sandwiched between Bercow and Osborne in that office- what a sequence!) but who then fell out in a big way with the party leadership, and particularly Michael Howard, over comments he made that an incoming Conservative government would make much bigger cuts than had been stated in the manifesto. This ended with Flight's deselection and replacement by Nick Herbert (2005-19). This may explain the "poor" Conservative performance in 2005 referred to above. Herbert was a gay activist, a countryside activist and a noted Europhile. He held office under Cameron as Police and Criminal Justice minister (2010-12). He played a significant role in the Equal Marriage campaign, he was a leading founder of the Countryside Alliance and of the Committee for Reform in Europe. One might have thought as a moderate Europhile, a social liberal and a countryside man, he was a goodish fit for this particular constituency, but not altogether surprisingly he stood down in 2019. He was replaced by Andrew Griffith who was a key figure in Boris Johnson's inner circle, as his business advisor. It was Griffith's house that was used as campaign headquarters for the Johnson leadership campaign. After which he was well placed to fall into this very safe Westminster seat.
In May 2023, though, the Greens gained 8 council seats from the Tories in the Horsham council section, covering Pulborough, Storrington and Steyning. Within Chichester borough the Liberal Democrats gained Fittlesham and Petworth. In Arun the Greens gained all the seats in Arundel itself and the Lib Dems one in a split result in Angmering & Findon. Finally in May 2023 the LDs held their existing seats in the Mid Sussex wards of Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint by massive margins over the Tories - over three to one and over two to one respectively. Across the whole Arundel & South Downs constituency (on ‘old’ boundaries), the 2023 local election figures added up to just 30.0% Conservative, with Liberal Democrats on 23.5% and Greens in the lead on 30.5%. Revolution has come to Arundel and South Downs! However some relief is to hand in the shape of parliamentary boundary changes.
The initial proposals for this area were radical and effectively tore up the current seat, linking Arundel with Littlehampton (and parts of Worthing) with much of the rural hinterland going to Shoreham and other seats.
The revised proposals do maintain this constituency in something approximating to its current form. The boundary changes are still quite significant though without having any partisan impact. Over 25,000 voters are removed in all, in the South and East of the seat - Angmering & Findon to Worthing West, Cowfold etc to Horsham, Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint to Mid Sussex. In their place over 20,000 voters are added from a large swathe of the rural North of Chichester district and constituency, centred on Midhurst. This now brings the boundary of this constituency up to the border with both Surrey and Hampshire.
It also removes some of the local elements that have not remained loyal to the Conservatives in recent years: Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint that fell to the Lib Dems in 2019, and Angmering/Findon which defected in 2023. The areas added, in the north of Chichester constituency and district, were somewhat more loyal even in May 2023: although Midhurst was gained by the Liberal Democrats, and Loxwood and Harting were already in their hands, the Tories held Easebourne, Westbourne and Goodwood and one of the two in Fernhurst. The effects of the boundary changes for the May 2023 calculations are that in the new lines Arundel & South Downs did at east see a Conservative lead, with 34.7& to 26.7% for the LDs and 27.5% for the Greens. One might think that some arrangement might be made by the latter to parties for the next general election, but even if this were acceptable in principle it is not clear which might withdraw.
Arundel & South Downs covers a highly attractive, generally affluent part of southern England, and all its demographic indicators would, by tradition, suggest a Tory heartland. It is comfortably within the 100 seats with the highest proportion of owner occupiers, nearly 75% overall, and there are only small pockets of social housing, for example in Storrington and Pulborough. Noweher does the proportion of workers in routine and semi-routine occupations exceed 20%, and it is close to that number only in Amberley, Pulborough & Storrington MSOA and Midhurst MSOA. The whole constituency is nearly 97% white, remarkably high for the south of England, and there are no concentrations of any ethnic minority community. As might be expected, property prices are very high. There can hardly be may better places to live than, say, Petworth. Yet as the 2023 local election results – and to a extent those in the 2019 general election – show, Arundel & South Downs is in fact not a true blue citadel. There were 123 safer Tory seats then, including places like Amber Valley, North Warwickshire and Great Yarmouth – which it may be argued are nowhere near as attractive and have far more relative deprivation.
Indeed, it may be that it is because Arundel & South Downs is so comfortable that it has moved away from the Conservative party in recent years, that environmental issues can rise up the agenda here and fuel Green support, that there are few things that the EU could have been blamed for, which helps the Liberal Democrats, that there are fewer targets for the populist approach of a Boris Johnson. The divided opposition should help Andrew Griffith to retain his place in the Commons at the forthcoming general election, but it would now be a surprise if as many as 50% of the electors who turn out in this lush and affluent corner of England’s deep south actually vote for him.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 28.9% 15/575
Owner occupied 73.9% 77/575
Private rented 14.4% 468/575
Social rented 11.7% 443/575
White 96.8% 88/575
Black 0.3% 494/575
Asian 1.0% 516/575
Managerial & professional 41.6% 89/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 505/575
Degree level 37.4% 152/575
No qualifications 14.1% 461/575
Students 4.6% 483/575
General Election 2019: Arundel and South Downs
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andrew Griffith 35,566 57.9 -4.5
Liberal Democrats Alison Bennett 13,045 21.2 +13.3
Labour Bella Sankey 9,722 15.8 -6.9
Green Isabel Thurston 2,519 4.1 -0.1
Independent Robert Wheal 556 0.9
C Majority 22,521 36.7 −3.0
2019 electorate 81,726
Turnout 61,408 75.1 -0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Arundel and South Downs consists of
68.1% of Arundel and South Downs
24.5% of Chichester
0.1% of Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_285_Arundel%20and%20South%20Downs_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
This West Sussex seat is a very extensive constituency by South-East England standards and is almost entirely rural, with more than half its area in the South Downs National Park. Before 1974 much of this was in the old constituency of Arundel & Shoreham, so then containing an urban area of sorts, but since then, although there have been a number of changes since, notably in 1997 and most recently in 2010, the constituency based on Arundel has remained deeply rural. When the constituency was named in 1997, it was seriously suggested naming it as Chanctonbury after the downland hill fort which had once probably been one of the centres of population in the area - back in the Iron Age! Shades of Old Sarum, perhaps. So, deeply rural, but maybe equally deeply Conservative, although it sometimes displays as a rather Liberal brand of Conservatism. It was, for instance, a constituency that voted Remain in 2016 though by the finest of margins-an estimated 50.3% Remain! It does contain two of the great ducal family seats in Arundel Castle and Petworth House and so maybe the Conservative tradition here in some respects is more Whiggish than Tory.
Arundel might be regarded as the principal centre, as the named town in the constituency title, but had less than 3,500 people as recorded in the 2021 census, and Petworth, the only other place that could be called a town, barely 2,500. On the other hand a number of villages on the edges of the Downs have been popular residential and retirement locations and have been allowed to sprawl. Hassocks, a village which only came into being on the coming of the railways , is actually the largest settlement in the current constituency and together with the contiguous village of Hurstpierpoint adds up to a population of 14,000.There are a number of other rather oversized villages: Angmering, Pulborough, Steyning and Storrington are all examples. There are however many tiny villages and hamlets high up on the Downs and deep into the Weald, and linked by a maze of narrow lanes where it is very easy to get lost.
Arundel though small is a major tourist centre, dominated by its grand medieval (if extensively modernised) castle, which remains the seat of the Duke of Norfolk, the hereditary Earl Marshal of England. It also boasts a fine (Roman Catholic) cathedral and a cricket ground hosting matches up to first class standard. These 3C's- Castle, Cathedral, Cricket, say much about the sort of place Arundel is, and maybe also indicates the dominance of the Howard family and their interests and persuasions. There is more than a touch of the feudal about the place, and the Duke still lives in his castle. Tourists are of course drawn to all that, but also to the wonderful Wildfowl and Wetlands centre beneath the castle walls.
Petworth is if anything even more dominated by its own massive mansion, associated with two more of the most significant families of the English aristocracy, the Percys and the Seymours, but now in the hands of the National Trust. Its central grid of streets and miniature town square are, rather appropriately, well supplied with antique shops.
It comes as no surprise that Arundel & South Downs is a Conservative fiefdom, and in some elections this has been a constituency ranked in the top 10 or so of safe Tory seats. On the boundaries in force in 2019 it was split between 4 different district councils, in each case one might feel the most rural and most Tory bits of those four districts all lumped in together! It included 3 wards from Arun, 2 wards from Mid Sussex, 3 from Chichester, and 6 from Horsham. In 2015, there were 35 councillors returned- 34 Conservatives...and one Independent! The Horsham wards were fought for the first time in a new format in 2019, which means there were now 36 councillors in total. 33 Conservatives, 1 Independent...and 2 Greens!
Given the scale of this historic local dominance, the Conservative performance in some recent general elections might be seen as almost modest by comparison. After all, in 2005 the Tory majority had shrunk to a paltry 11,309. By 2015 it was back up at 26,177, and that over UKIP. Nevertheless in 2019 when the Conservatives were making big inroads into Labour territory elsewhere, in this quintessential Tory territory the majority fell back a bit to 22,521 over the Lib Dems who had managed a reasonably respectable 13,045, or 21.2% - maybe a reflection of that marginal Remain tendency.
Since 1997 when the present constituency title was adopted, there have now been 3 MPs, all of them Conservative of course. Howard Flight (1997-2005) had been a Tory deputy chairman (who hasn't?), and Shadow Chief Secretary (2002-4, sandwiched between Bercow and Osborne in that office- what a sequence!) but who then fell out in a big way with the party leadership, and particularly Michael Howard, over comments he made that an incoming Conservative government would make much bigger cuts than had been stated in the manifesto. This ended with Flight's deselection and replacement by Nick Herbert (2005-19). This may explain the "poor" Conservative performance in 2005 referred to above. Herbert was a gay activist, a countryside activist and a noted Europhile. He held office under Cameron as Police and Criminal Justice minister (2010-12). He played a significant role in the Equal Marriage campaign, he was a leading founder of the Countryside Alliance and of the Committee for Reform in Europe. One might have thought as a moderate Europhile, a social liberal and a countryside man, he was a goodish fit for this particular constituency, but not altogether surprisingly he stood down in 2019. He was replaced by Andrew Griffith who was a key figure in Boris Johnson's inner circle, as his business advisor. It was Griffith's house that was used as campaign headquarters for the Johnson leadership campaign. After which he was well placed to fall into this very safe Westminster seat.
In May 2023, though, the Greens gained 8 council seats from the Tories in the Horsham council section, covering Pulborough, Storrington and Steyning. Within Chichester borough the Liberal Democrats gained Fittlesham and Petworth. In Arun the Greens gained all the seats in Arundel itself and the Lib Dems one in a split result in Angmering & Findon. Finally in May 2023 the LDs held their existing seats in the Mid Sussex wards of Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint by massive margins over the Tories - over three to one and over two to one respectively. Across the whole Arundel & South Downs constituency (on ‘old’ boundaries), the 2023 local election figures added up to just 30.0% Conservative, with Liberal Democrats on 23.5% and Greens in the lead on 30.5%. Revolution has come to Arundel and South Downs! However some relief is to hand in the shape of parliamentary boundary changes.
The initial proposals for this area were radical and effectively tore up the current seat, linking Arundel with Littlehampton (and parts of Worthing) with much of the rural hinterland going to Shoreham and other seats.
The revised proposals do maintain this constituency in something approximating to its current form. The boundary changes are still quite significant though without having any partisan impact. Over 25,000 voters are removed in all, in the South and East of the seat - Angmering & Findon to Worthing West, Cowfold etc to Horsham, Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint to Mid Sussex. In their place over 20,000 voters are added from a large swathe of the rural North of Chichester district and constituency, centred on Midhurst. This now brings the boundary of this constituency up to the border with both Surrey and Hampshire.
It also removes some of the local elements that have not remained loyal to the Conservatives in recent years: Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint that fell to the Lib Dems in 2019, and Angmering/Findon which defected in 2023. The areas added, in the north of Chichester constituency and district, were somewhat more loyal even in May 2023: although Midhurst was gained by the Liberal Democrats, and Loxwood and Harting were already in their hands, the Tories held Easebourne, Westbourne and Goodwood and one of the two in Fernhurst. The effects of the boundary changes for the May 2023 calculations are that in the new lines Arundel & South Downs did at east see a Conservative lead, with 34.7& to 26.7% for the LDs and 27.5% for the Greens. One might think that some arrangement might be made by the latter to parties for the next general election, but even if this were acceptable in principle it is not clear which might withdraw.
Arundel & South Downs covers a highly attractive, generally affluent part of southern England, and all its demographic indicators would, by tradition, suggest a Tory heartland. It is comfortably within the 100 seats with the highest proportion of owner occupiers, nearly 75% overall, and there are only small pockets of social housing, for example in Storrington and Pulborough. Noweher does the proportion of workers in routine and semi-routine occupations exceed 20%, and it is close to that number only in Amberley, Pulborough & Storrington MSOA and Midhurst MSOA. The whole constituency is nearly 97% white, remarkably high for the south of England, and there are no concentrations of any ethnic minority community. As might be expected, property prices are very high. There can hardly be may better places to live than, say, Petworth. Yet as the 2023 local election results – and to a extent those in the 2019 general election – show, Arundel & South Downs is in fact not a true blue citadel. There were 123 safer Tory seats then, including places like Amber Valley, North Warwickshire and Great Yarmouth – which it may be argued are nowhere near as attractive and have far more relative deprivation.
Indeed, it may be that it is because Arundel & South Downs is so comfortable that it has moved away from the Conservative party in recent years, that environmental issues can rise up the agenda here and fuel Green support, that there are few things that the EU could have been blamed for, which helps the Liberal Democrats, that there are fewer targets for the populist approach of a Boris Johnson. The divided opposition should help Andrew Griffith to retain his place in the Commons at the forthcoming general election, but it would now be a surprise if as many as 50% of the electors who turn out in this lush and affluent corner of England’s deep south actually vote for him.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 28.9% 15/575
Owner occupied 73.9% 77/575
Private rented 14.4% 468/575
Social rented 11.7% 443/575
White 96.8% 88/575
Black 0.3% 494/575
Asian 1.0% 516/575
Managerial & professional 41.6% 89/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 505/575
Degree level 37.4% 152/575
No qualifications 14.1% 461/575
Students 4.6% 483/575
General Election 2019: Arundel and South Downs
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andrew Griffith 35,566 57.9 -4.5
Liberal Democrats Alison Bennett 13,045 21.2 +13.3
Labour Bella Sankey 9,722 15.8 -6.9
Green Isabel Thurston 2,519 4.1 -0.1
Independent Robert Wheal 556 0.9
C Majority 22,521 36.7 −3.0
2019 electorate 81,726
Turnout 61,408 75.1 -0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 8.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Arundel and South Downs consists of
68.1% of Arundel and South Downs
24.5% of Chichester
0.1% of Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_285_Arundel%20and%20South%20Downs_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 35117 | 60.4% |
| LD | 11012 | 19.0% |
| Lab | 9108 | 15.7% |
| Grn | 2312 | 4.0% |
| Oth | 556 | 1.0% |
| Majority | 24105 | 41.5% |
