Post by Robert Waller on Nov 8, 2023 0:10:18 GMT
Based on a profile by yellowperil, who is the first person in the below; and boundary change analysis by Pete Whitehead, plus updates and additions by me
The Isle of Thanet area of Kent is again being reorganised by the Boundary Commission, as it was in both 1974 and 1983. That a new seat of East Thanet is being created does suggest that they have returned to dividing the isle and its environs by a vertical line rather than horizontal, and this is indeed largely the case. However there is not to be a West Thanet, or even a Thanet West. Instead, the terrain not included in East Thanet is to be named Herne Bay and Sandwich, after its two contrasting largest (whole) communities.
North Thanet was created as a new constituency in 1983, although its short lived predecessor, Thanet West, only itself formed in 1974, covered much of the same area, and it might be argued was a better descriptor for the new seat. Like South Thanet however, the constituency has extended beyond the confines of the island after which it is named, crossing the Wantsum channel, once a proper arm of the sea able to take sizeable ships, but now scarcely more than a ditch, to include the north-eastern corner of Canterbury district (and that whole district has city status). This bit of the city of Canterbury though, comprising six Canterbury wards, has probably more in common with Thanet than to Canterbury proper, the city centre with its major cathedral, medieval city walls and its two universities. The part of Canterbury within the North Thanet constituency includes a sizeable seaside resort, Herne Bay, and a sprinkling of villages in a seaside and rural settings very similar to the interior of Thanet island.
The newly created constituency had a 40 year old hopeful called Roger Gale representing the Conservative cause, against a fairly strong challenge from the SDP, and there were also Labour and BUP candidates to contend with. The Labour candidate, eventually trailing in a distant third, was one Cherie Blair. 40 years later, Gale is still in place, having now won North Thanet in ten successive general elections. He was knighted in 2012 and made a Privy Councillor in 2019, but never made it to the ministerial ranks - PPS was as high as he ever went in that regard. Sir Roger, who turned 80 on 20 August 2023, has been selected to contest the inaugural contest in Herne Bay & Sandwich, and if elected will in all probability be the oldest MP in the next Parliament.
Tourism is pretty central to the economy of North Thanet, not only in and around Margate but also the Herne Bay area. All British seaside resorts have had their ups and downs over the years that this constituency has existed, and Margate has had its travails, not least the somewhat chequered history of the Dreamland amusement centre, but my feeling is that there has been less angst on this side of the Isle, and there has recently been a big bounce back usually associated with the building of the Turner Contemporary art complex. North Thanet has always felt a less volatile place than South Thanet, and the threat to Conservative hegemony, from either Labour or UKIP, while always there, has been more muted than in South Thanet. No Stephen Ladyman, no Nigel Farage.
The stronger Labour areas were mostly in the Margate area. Margate Central is a pretty mixed area with some very nice period houses among the grot, but usually votes Labour, as do the built-up inland wards of Salmestone and Dane Valley. The coastal area going west from central Margate, gets increasingly solidly Conservative - Westgate still a bit mixed, Birchington a lot safer Tory territory. The big rural ward of Thanet Villages has tended to mix Conservatives with Indies. The Canterbury coastal part of the constituency now looks much the same as Birchington, but pre-coalition Herne Bay often voted Lib Dem, while the single member ward of Marshside, the bit of the Kent coalfield within Canterbury, voted Labour, until it was abolished in the last review. In 2015, here as in South Thanet there was the huge rise in UKIP mainly at the expense of Labour, who were reduced to just one seat, in Margate Central. The Thanet district seats within the constituency went Con 12, Lab 5, Thanet Independent 4, Green 1 in 2019. Note that the Thanet Independents are the successors to UKIP and they have partly hung on, mostly in the former Labour areas like Dane Valley. The Conservatives were more or less back to where they were before in the Thanet part of the constituency and much more entrenched in the Canterbury coastal area.
Then in May 2023, in the Canterbury section Labour made an inroad gaining one of the three seats in Heron ward (central Herne Bay), and the Greens gained West Bay form the Conservatives, but the Tories did retain all their other wards. In the parts of Thanet council that were in North Thanet, Labour gained Dane Valley, Westbrook and one in Westgate-on-Sea, and kept their strongholds in Margate Central and Salmestone, but the Tories held all five seats in Birchington and the three in Thanet Villages. Overall Labour would certainly have been competitive in North ThaneT on the May 2023 addition, with 29% to 37% for the Conservatives. However major boundary changes have been made which are far from politically neutral in their effects.
Although both Thanet seats as currently drawn are within quota, the need for North Thanet to absorb some excess voters from Canterbury (which push it over quota) has led to a complete reconfiguration of the boundaries in this area. This constituency gains the Dover district wards of Little Stour & Ashstone and Sandwich (some 11,000 voters) from South Thanet and part of Sturry from Canterbury (4,500 voters) and loses over 12,000 in Central Margate, Dane Valley and Salmestone wards. This is the (even) grottier end of Margate and effectively this swaps out the most Conservative part of South Thanet for the most Labour part of North Thanet. The seat is was to be renamed 'West Thanet' on the initial proposals but the revised plans go for 'Herne Bay & Sandwich' - a bit of a demotion for 'Thanet' but after all only a minority of voters in this 'new' seat will live in Thanet.
(Credit and thanks to Pete Whitehead for the commentary on the boundary changes)
Looking at the May 2023 results in the areas to be added in the process of the transformation to Herne Bay & Sandwich, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by over two to one in both Little Stour & Ashstone and Sandwich itself, though an Independent actually finished top of the poll in the latter. Sandwich, although a bijou little town of only 5,000 people (compared with Herne Bay’s 25,000 in the 2021 census) is a historic Cinque Port with a distinguished past, including having been considered worth invading by the French in 1457, though its career as an important port was ended by the silting up of the same Wentsum channel as defined the Isle of Thanet. Perhaps Labour did narrowly gain both seats in Sturry, but as it was close and part if the ward was already in North Thanet this does not alter the fact that the boundary changes will heavily help Sir Roger Gale retain his place in the Commons yet again. A good illustration of this is that Adam Gray’s figures for the totals in Herne Bay & Sandwich under the new boundaries in May 2023 were as follows: Conservative 40.1%, Labour 19.5%. This is a gap of 20.6% compared with the 7.9% in the existing North Thanet in the same local elections.
The compensation is, of course, that Labour would have been over 10% ahead on the May 2023 figures in the revised East Thanet, compared with just 4% in the present South Thanet. So it looks like the pattern of parliamentary results that pertained between 1997 and 2005 will re-emerge: one Thanet seat for Labour, one (this one) beyond their grasp.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.2% 33/575
Owner occupied 72.9% 102/575
Private rented 18.3% 280/575
Social rented 8.8% 550/575
White 95.3% 171/575
Black 0.6% 423/575
Asian 1.7% 418/575
Managerial & professional 31.4% 313/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 279/575
Degree level 27.0% 432/575
No qualifications 20.5% 168/575
Students 4.8% 437/575
General Election 2019: North Thanet
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Roger Gale 30,066 62.4 +6.2
Labour Coral Jones 12,877 26.7 –7.3
Liberal Democrats Angie Curwen 3,439 7.1 +3.8
Green Robert Edwards 1,796 3.7 +2.0
C Majority 17,189 35.7 +13.5
2019 electorate 72,811
Turnout 48,178 66.2 –0.4
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Herne Bay and Sandwich consists of
82.6% of North Thanet
15.1% of South Thanet
5.7% of Canterbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_330_Herne%20Bay%20and%20Sandwich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results - Herne Bay & Sandwich (Rallings & Thrasher)
The Isle of Thanet area of Kent is again being reorganised by the Boundary Commission, as it was in both 1974 and 1983. That a new seat of East Thanet is being created does suggest that they have returned to dividing the isle and its environs by a vertical line rather than horizontal, and this is indeed largely the case. However there is not to be a West Thanet, or even a Thanet West. Instead, the terrain not included in East Thanet is to be named Herne Bay and Sandwich, after its two contrasting largest (whole) communities.
North Thanet was created as a new constituency in 1983, although its short lived predecessor, Thanet West, only itself formed in 1974, covered much of the same area, and it might be argued was a better descriptor for the new seat. Like South Thanet however, the constituency has extended beyond the confines of the island after which it is named, crossing the Wantsum channel, once a proper arm of the sea able to take sizeable ships, but now scarcely more than a ditch, to include the north-eastern corner of Canterbury district (and that whole district has city status). This bit of the city of Canterbury though, comprising six Canterbury wards, has probably more in common with Thanet than to Canterbury proper, the city centre with its major cathedral, medieval city walls and its two universities. The part of Canterbury within the North Thanet constituency includes a sizeable seaside resort, Herne Bay, and a sprinkling of villages in a seaside and rural settings very similar to the interior of Thanet island.
The newly created constituency had a 40 year old hopeful called Roger Gale representing the Conservative cause, against a fairly strong challenge from the SDP, and there were also Labour and BUP candidates to contend with. The Labour candidate, eventually trailing in a distant third, was one Cherie Blair. 40 years later, Gale is still in place, having now won North Thanet in ten successive general elections. He was knighted in 2012 and made a Privy Councillor in 2019, but never made it to the ministerial ranks - PPS was as high as he ever went in that regard. Sir Roger, who turned 80 on 20 August 2023, has been selected to contest the inaugural contest in Herne Bay & Sandwich, and if elected will in all probability be the oldest MP in the next Parliament.
Tourism is pretty central to the economy of North Thanet, not only in and around Margate but also the Herne Bay area. All British seaside resorts have had their ups and downs over the years that this constituency has existed, and Margate has had its travails, not least the somewhat chequered history of the Dreamland amusement centre, but my feeling is that there has been less angst on this side of the Isle, and there has recently been a big bounce back usually associated with the building of the Turner Contemporary art complex. North Thanet has always felt a less volatile place than South Thanet, and the threat to Conservative hegemony, from either Labour or UKIP, while always there, has been more muted than in South Thanet. No Stephen Ladyman, no Nigel Farage.
The stronger Labour areas were mostly in the Margate area. Margate Central is a pretty mixed area with some very nice period houses among the grot, but usually votes Labour, as do the built-up inland wards of Salmestone and Dane Valley. The coastal area going west from central Margate, gets increasingly solidly Conservative - Westgate still a bit mixed, Birchington a lot safer Tory territory. The big rural ward of Thanet Villages has tended to mix Conservatives with Indies. The Canterbury coastal part of the constituency now looks much the same as Birchington, but pre-coalition Herne Bay often voted Lib Dem, while the single member ward of Marshside, the bit of the Kent coalfield within Canterbury, voted Labour, until it was abolished in the last review. In 2015, here as in South Thanet there was the huge rise in UKIP mainly at the expense of Labour, who were reduced to just one seat, in Margate Central. The Thanet district seats within the constituency went Con 12, Lab 5, Thanet Independent 4, Green 1 in 2019. Note that the Thanet Independents are the successors to UKIP and they have partly hung on, mostly in the former Labour areas like Dane Valley. The Conservatives were more or less back to where they were before in the Thanet part of the constituency and much more entrenched in the Canterbury coastal area.
Then in May 2023, in the Canterbury section Labour made an inroad gaining one of the three seats in Heron ward (central Herne Bay), and the Greens gained West Bay form the Conservatives, but the Tories did retain all their other wards. In the parts of Thanet council that were in North Thanet, Labour gained Dane Valley, Westbrook and one in Westgate-on-Sea, and kept their strongholds in Margate Central and Salmestone, but the Tories held all five seats in Birchington and the three in Thanet Villages. Overall Labour would certainly have been competitive in North ThaneT on the May 2023 addition, with 29% to 37% for the Conservatives. However major boundary changes have been made which are far from politically neutral in their effects.
Although both Thanet seats as currently drawn are within quota, the need for North Thanet to absorb some excess voters from Canterbury (which push it over quota) has led to a complete reconfiguration of the boundaries in this area. This constituency gains the Dover district wards of Little Stour & Ashstone and Sandwich (some 11,000 voters) from South Thanet and part of Sturry from Canterbury (4,500 voters) and loses over 12,000 in Central Margate, Dane Valley and Salmestone wards. This is the (even) grottier end of Margate and effectively this swaps out the most Conservative part of South Thanet for the most Labour part of North Thanet. The seat is was to be renamed 'West Thanet' on the initial proposals but the revised plans go for 'Herne Bay & Sandwich' - a bit of a demotion for 'Thanet' but after all only a minority of voters in this 'new' seat will live in Thanet.
(Credit and thanks to Pete Whitehead for the commentary on the boundary changes)
Looking at the May 2023 results in the areas to be added in the process of the transformation to Herne Bay & Sandwich, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by over two to one in both Little Stour & Ashstone and Sandwich itself, though an Independent actually finished top of the poll in the latter. Sandwich, although a bijou little town of only 5,000 people (compared with Herne Bay’s 25,000 in the 2021 census) is a historic Cinque Port with a distinguished past, including having been considered worth invading by the French in 1457, though its career as an important port was ended by the silting up of the same Wentsum channel as defined the Isle of Thanet. Perhaps Labour did narrowly gain both seats in Sturry, but as it was close and part if the ward was already in North Thanet this does not alter the fact that the boundary changes will heavily help Sir Roger Gale retain his place in the Commons yet again. A good illustration of this is that Adam Gray’s figures for the totals in Herne Bay & Sandwich under the new boundaries in May 2023 were as follows: Conservative 40.1%, Labour 19.5%. This is a gap of 20.6% compared with the 7.9% in the existing North Thanet in the same local elections.
The compensation is, of course, that Labour would have been over 10% ahead on the May 2023 figures in the revised East Thanet, compared with just 4% in the present South Thanet. So it looks like the pattern of parliamentary results that pertained between 1997 and 2005 will re-emerge: one Thanet seat for Labour, one (this one) beyond their grasp.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.2% 33/575
Owner occupied 72.9% 102/575
Private rented 18.3% 280/575
Social rented 8.8% 550/575
White 95.3% 171/575
Black 0.6% 423/575
Asian 1.7% 418/575
Managerial & professional 31.4% 313/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 279/575
Degree level 27.0% 432/575
No qualifications 20.5% 168/575
Students 4.8% 437/575
General Election 2019: North Thanet
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Roger Gale 30,066 62.4 +6.2
Labour Coral Jones 12,877 26.7 –7.3
Liberal Democrats Angie Curwen 3,439 7.1 +3.8
Green Robert Edwards 1,796 3.7 +2.0
C Majority 17,189 35.7 +13.5
2019 electorate 72,811
Turnout 48,178 66.2 –0.4
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Herne Bay and Sandwich consists of
82.6% of North Thanet
15.1% of South Thanet
5.7% of Canterbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_330_Herne%20Bay%20and%20Sandwich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results - Herne Bay & Sandwich (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 32807 | 64.4% |
| Lab | 12435 | 24.4% |
| LD | 3799 | 7.5% |
| Grn | 1921 | 3.8% |
| Majority | 20372 | 40.0% |