Post by Robert Waller on Nov 5, 2023 14:24:55 GMT
I would like to acknowledge the contribution by Pete Whitehead from the previous sub-board to the information and discussion below on boundary changes and their effects.
North Buckinghamshire has consistently been one of the greatest areas of population growth within England ever since the establishment of Milton Keynes as a planned new community in 1967. The first major housing development, Galley Hill, first offered housing in 1972 and was completed in 1973. Since then the ‘New City’ has spread inexorably like a giant fungal growth, encompassing a plethora of housing neighbourhoods, industrial areas, and the central retail complex all linked by an alphanumeric road grid system (the first, H2 eastbound from V4, was built in 1970) as well as the famous roundabouts.
The expansion in the number of residents has led to a series of developments in terms of parliamentary representation. Until 1983 Milton Keynes was subsumed within the Buckingham seat, but by 1979 its electorate was well over the average and for 1983 a seat named after the new community was established for the first time. It only lasted nine years before being split in 1992, in an unusual adjustment between periodic national reviews, into SW and NE divisions. In 2010 these were renamed as Milton Keynes South and North. By the time of the December 2019 election, both were among the 17 seats in the United Kingdom with an electorate over 90,000. South (96,343) was the 5th highest of all, after only the anomalous Isle of Wight and the rapidly growing urban constituencies of Bristol West, East Ham and West Ham.
Clearly major changes were necessary and after the latest ‘2023’ review MK effectively has two and a half seats. The half is the ‘Bletchley’ section of Bletchley and Buckingham. There were some changes of nomenclature regarding the other two: originally the Commission proposed calling them Milton Keynes South and Newport Pagnell, but these have ended up as Central and North. Central is a more sensible description, not only because South has been split almost evenly between the new Central and Bletchley/Buckingham, but because it takes 37.7% of North as well – and because it covers a rectangle of ‘new town’ territory with relatively few of the older communities that were subsumed into MK, certainly compared with North.
The ‘pure Milton Keynes’ developments in South that has existed up to and including the 2019 general election include (already present on my 1980 Ordnance Survey Landranger 152 map) Coffee Hall, Netherfield and Beanhill, and (more recent so present on the 1999 version) massive infilling as MK marched across the Buckinghamshire fields in a westerly direction, filling the gap between between Bletchley and Fenny Stratford. The wards covering these neighbourhoods are Shenley Brook End, Loughton & Shenley, and Tattenhoe (which includes Emerson Valley). The wards do not currently match the constituency boundaries, so South also includes parts of Bradwell, Monkston and Woughton & Fishermead, and most of the sprawling Danesborough & Walton, which includes the upmarket and attractive survival of Wavendon Village, reaches as far as Little Brickhill and Woburn Sands in the extreme south-east of the authority – some of the few parts of the Milton Keynes Central constituency that existed before the 1970s.
However, in general the more recent housing developments are less favourable for the Labour party. This is not unconnected with their different appearance. Coffee Hall, for example, is one of those striking inner MK neighbourhoods of distinctive appearance, with ‘adventurous’ modern terraced rows of small houses. The much later western additions appear much more as suburban and identikit end-twentieth century detached owner occupied estates. Which of these types is more attractive is very much a matter of taste, rather like attitudes to Milton Keynes as a whole.
In the boundary changes, along with the disappearance of the Bletchley, Stony Stratford and Tattenhie sections of Milton Keynes South, the strongly Labour Central Milton Keynes ward is added from Milton Keynes North along with more historically Conservative Broughton, Campbell Park and part of Monkston. In return the part of Bradwell not already in the seat is removed along with the marginal Stony Stratford. Overall Pete Whitehead has calculated that in December 2019 Milton Keynes Central, on the boundaries as now defined, would have had a Conservative majority of between 4,000 and 4,500, requiring a swing of only a little over 4% for Labour to take it. It therefore comes into the category of ‘must gain’ even to establish a lead in seat over the Tories, never mid secure anything like an overall majority. In a situation in which Labour and Conservative are level nationally, Central would be on the Labour side of the divide.
Labour appear to be on track, here as elsewhere. In the May 2023 local elections within the new boundaries, they polled 33% of the vote compared to 30% for the Conservatives, which is not in itself convincing, but it needs to be observed that the Liberal Democrats took 30% at local level (and the Greens anther 6%). It is highly likely that tactical voting will assist Labour in a general election, as in both South and North sat the 2019 general election there was no doubt which party was better placed to challenge the incumbent members (and government). In South Labour took 39&, the LDs 7%. In North, the figures were 39.5% and 8%.
The wards that Labour won in May 2023 were Central Milton Keynes, Danesborough & Walton (a gain from C), Loughton & Shenley, and their strongest; Woughton & Fishermead. The Liberal Democrats won the other four: Broughton, Campbell Park & Old Woughton, Monkston and Shenley Brook End (a gain from C). Thus Labour generally did better in the more central and earlier established areas, but not universally. The Conservatives won none at all, though had a respectable share spread across the wards and attained over 35% in Danesborough & Walton, Loughton & Shenley and Shenley Brook End.
This pattern is connected to demographic variation, which was not intended to be a significant factor within the New Town movement, but has (inevitably) become so. In fact, looking at the demographic maps of Milton Keynes Central constituency it appears a mosaic that adds up to a microcosm of modern Britain as a whole. In occupational class terms, the modern private estates on the western and eastern edges of the seat are really rather upmarket. The professional and managerial worker proportions exceed 40%, and indeed approach 50%, in census MSOAs such as Loughton, Shenley Wood & Crownhill and Westcroft & Shenley Brook End (west) and Broughton East and Broughton West & Milton Keynes Village (east), along with the anomalous ‘older’ MSOA of Bow, Brickhill & Woburn Sands that is similar in scope to the Danesborough & Walton ward. On the other hand the central MSOAs Oldbrook & Coffee Hall and Eaglestone & Fishermead have a plurality of routine and semi-routine workers. The same pattern applies to educational qualifications, although overall (as befits the home of the Open University, an early adopter if the MK brand, moving its HQ there in 1969), this seat has well above the average of degree holders.
One aspect of Milton Keynes that may come as a surprise to some is the high proportion of ethnic minority residents. The newly drawn Central constituency only has a white percentage of 65.6, which is substantially lower than either the former North or South. The Asian residents are spread fairly evenly across the whole seat, in both middle and working class neighbourhoods: over 20% in inner Oldbrook & Coffee Hall, but also in the much more affluent western edge neighbourhood of Shenley Wood & Crownhill and in Broughton in the east. The Black population, at 12.4% overall one of the top 40 in England and Wales and one of the highest outside London, is somewhat more concentrated, reaching 23% in Eaglestone & Fishermead MSOA and over 19% in Central Milton Keynes & Newlands. Drilling down even deeper to OA (Output Area) level, it peaks within the Conniburrow and most of all Fishermead estates, where the highest OA is over 40%, along Fishermead Boulevard. However nowhere in the ‘new’ Milton Keynes section of Central does the Black proportion significantly dip below 10%.
Milton Keynes has always divided opinion and still does. Some see it as a massive excrescence, crawling across and obliterating the countryside of England’s douce heartland, soulless and ugly, typified by endless roundabouts and stereotypical shopping malls, with an ever expanding range of neighbourhoods all lacking distinctive character and the attractive patina of unplanned evolutionary development. Others say it is actually a good place to live, with excellent entertainment, educational and retail facilities, and a very wide range of employment. The figures do indeed suggest relative prosperity and less deprivation, with a high proportion of adults in work, a plurality in managerial and professional positions rather than routine or semi-routine, and a very young population (only 10.6% over 65, within the lowest fifty seats), and much fewer than average with no educational qualifications.
It could be argued, though, that Milton Keynes is now so large that it cannot be simply characterized as a whole, that there is variety, there are indeed distinct neighbourhoods and communities, and maybe something, if not for all, then for most people. It is also sufficiently a microcosm politically that both the present MK seats and their successors after the boundary changes will be key marginals that need to be won in order to win the general election itself. As such this area will be a key test for the appeal of post-Corbyn (Starmer’s?) Labour, as well as for whoever will be Prime Minister circa 2024.
One final point. By May 2023 the combined electorate of the wards within Central has already reached 85,212, a feature of the protracted review process in operation in Britain as well as the continued growth of Milton Keynes. By the time of the next boundary commission, yet further boundary changes will be necessary, as this huge and unique experiment continues to evolve.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 10.8% 533/575
Owner occupied 54.7% 459/575
Private rented 24.9% 112/575
Social rented 20.4% 138/575
White 65.6% 482/575
Black 12.4% 39/575
Asian 15.0% 95/575
Managerial & professional 36.4% 191/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.9% 281/575
Degree level 38.8% 134/575
No qualifications 14.9% 422/575
Students 7.9% 158/575
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Stewart 32,011 50.0 +2.5
Labour Hannah O'Neill 25,067 39.2 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Saleyha Ahsan 4,688 7.3 +4.4
Green Alan Francis 1,495 2.3 +0.5
Independent Stephen Fulton 539 0.8 New
CPA Amarachi Ogba 207 0.3 New
C Majority 6,944 10.8 +8.2
Turnout 64,007 66.4 -3.4
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Milton Keynes Central consists of
43.6% of Milton Keynes South
62.3% of Milton Keynes North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_340_Milton%20Keynes%20Central_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 on the new boundaries, Milton Keynes Central (Rallings & Thrasher)
North Buckinghamshire has consistently been one of the greatest areas of population growth within England ever since the establishment of Milton Keynes as a planned new community in 1967. The first major housing development, Galley Hill, first offered housing in 1972 and was completed in 1973. Since then the ‘New City’ has spread inexorably like a giant fungal growth, encompassing a plethora of housing neighbourhoods, industrial areas, and the central retail complex all linked by an alphanumeric road grid system (the first, H2 eastbound from V4, was built in 1970) as well as the famous roundabouts.
The expansion in the number of residents has led to a series of developments in terms of parliamentary representation. Until 1983 Milton Keynes was subsumed within the Buckingham seat, but by 1979 its electorate was well over the average and for 1983 a seat named after the new community was established for the first time. It only lasted nine years before being split in 1992, in an unusual adjustment between periodic national reviews, into SW and NE divisions. In 2010 these were renamed as Milton Keynes South and North. By the time of the December 2019 election, both were among the 17 seats in the United Kingdom with an electorate over 90,000. South (96,343) was the 5th highest of all, after only the anomalous Isle of Wight and the rapidly growing urban constituencies of Bristol West, East Ham and West Ham.
Clearly major changes were necessary and after the latest ‘2023’ review MK effectively has two and a half seats. The half is the ‘Bletchley’ section of Bletchley and Buckingham. There were some changes of nomenclature regarding the other two: originally the Commission proposed calling them Milton Keynes South and Newport Pagnell, but these have ended up as Central and North. Central is a more sensible description, not only because South has been split almost evenly between the new Central and Bletchley/Buckingham, but because it takes 37.7% of North as well – and because it covers a rectangle of ‘new town’ territory with relatively few of the older communities that were subsumed into MK, certainly compared with North.
The ‘pure Milton Keynes’ developments in South that has existed up to and including the 2019 general election include (already present on my 1980 Ordnance Survey Landranger 152 map) Coffee Hall, Netherfield and Beanhill, and (more recent so present on the 1999 version) massive infilling as MK marched across the Buckinghamshire fields in a westerly direction, filling the gap between between Bletchley and Fenny Stratford. The wards covering these neighbourhoods are Shenley Brook End, Loughton & Shenley, and Tattenhoe (which includes Emerson Valley). The wards do not currently match the constituency boundaries, so South also includes parts of Bradwell, Monkston and Woughton & Fishermead, and most of the sprawling Danesborough & Walton, which includes the upmarket and attractive survival of Wavendon Village, reaches as far as Little Brickhill and Woburn Sands in the extreme south-east of the authority – some of the few parts of the Milton Keynes Central constituency that existed before the 1970s.
However, in general the more recent housing developments are less favourable for the Labour party. This is not unconnected with their different appearance. Coffee Hall, for example, is one of those striking inner MK neighbourhoods of distinctive appearance, with ‘adventurous’ modern terraced rows of small houses. The much later western additions appear much more as suburban and identikit end-twentieth century detached owner occupied estates. Which of these types is more attractive is very much a matter of taste, rather like attitudes to Milton Keynes as a whole.
In the boundary changes, along with the disappearance of the Bletchley, Stony Stratford and Tattenhie sections of Milton Keynes South, the strongly Labour Central Milton Keynes ward is added from Milton Keynes North along with more historically Conservative Broughton, Campbell Park and part of Monkston. In return the part of Bradwell not already in the seat is removed along with the marginal Stony Stratford. Overall Pete Whitehead has calculated that in December 2019 Milton Keynes Central, on the boundaries as now defined, would have had a Conservative majority of between 4,000 and 4,500, requiring a swing of only a little over 4% for Labour to take it. It therefore comes into the category of ‘must gain’ even to establish a lead in seat over the Tories, never mid secure anything like an overall majority. In a situation in which Labour and Conservative are level nationally, Central would be on the Labour side of the divide.
Labour appear to be on track, here as elsewhere. In the May 2023 local elections within the new boundaries, they polled 33% of the vote compared to 30% for the Conservatives, which is not in itself convincing, but it needs to be observed that the Liberal Democrats took 30% at local level (and the Greens anther 6%). It is highly likely that tactical voting will assist Labour in a general election, as in both South and North sat the 2019 general election there was no doubt which party was better placed to challenge the incumbent members (and government). In South Labour took 39&, the LDs 7%. In North, the figures were 39.5% and 8%.
The wards that Labour won in May 2023 were Central Milton Keynes, Danesborough & Walton (a gain from C), Loughton & Shenley, and their strongest; Woughton & Fishermead. The Liberal Democrats won the other four: Broughton, Campbell Park & Old Woughton, Monkston and Shenley Brook End (a gain from C). Thus Labour generally did better in the more central and earlier established areas, but not universally. The Conservatives won none at all, though had a respectable share spread across the wards and attained over 35% in Danesborough & Walton, Loughton & Shenley and Shenley Brook End.
This pattern is connected to demographic variation, which was not intended to be a significant factor within the New Town movement, but has (inevitably) become so. In fact, looking at the demographic maps of Milton Keynes Central constituency it appears a mosaic that adds up to a microcosm of modern Britain as a whole. In occupational class terms, the modern private estates on the western and eastern edges of the seat are really rather upmarket. The professional and managerial worker proportions exceed 40%, and indeed approach 50%, in census MSOAs such as Loughton, Shenley Wood & Crownhill and Westcroft & Shenley Brook End (west) and Broughton East and Broughton West & Milton Keynes Village (east), along with the anomalous ‘older’ MSOA of Bow, Brickhill & Woburn Sands that is similar in scope to the Danesborough & Walton ward. On the other hand the central MSOAs Oldbrook & Coffee Hall and Eaglestone & Fishermead have a plurality of routine and semi-routine workers. The same pattern applies to educational qualifications, although overall (as befits the home of the Open University, an early adopter if the MK brand, moving its HQ there in 1969), this seat has well above the average of degree holders.
One aspect of Milton Keynes that may come as a surprise to some is the high proportion of ethnic minority residents. The newly drawn Central constituency only has a white percentage of 65.6, which is substantially lower than either the former North or South. The Asian residents are spread fairly evenly across the whole seat, in both middle and working class neighbourhoods: over 20% in inner Oldbrook & Coffee Hall, but also in the much more affluent western edge neighbourhood of Shenley Wood & Crownhill and in Broughton in the east. The Black population, at 12.4% overall one of the top 40 in England and Wales and one of the highest outside London, is somewhat more concentrated, reaching 23% in Eaglestone & Fishermead MSOA and over 19% in Central Milton Keynes & Newlands. Drilling down even deeper to OA (Output Area) level, it peaks within the Conniburrow and most of all Fishermead estates, where the highest OA is over 40%, along Fishermead Boulevard. However nowhere in the ‘new’ Milton Keynes section of Central does the Black proportion significantly dip below 10%.
Milton Keynes has always divided opinion and still does. Some see it as a massive excrescence, crawling across and obliterating the countryside of England’s douce heartland, soulless and ugly, typified by endless roundabouts and stereotypical shopping malls, with an ever expanding range of neighbourhoods all lacking distinctive character and the attractive patina of unplanned evolutionary development. Others say it is actually a good place to live, with excellent entertainment, educational and retail facilities, and a very wide range of employment. The figures do indeed suggest relative prosperity and less deprivation, with a high proportion of adults in work, a plurality in managerial and professional positions rather than routine or semi-routine, and a very young population (only 10.6% over 65, within the lowest fifty seats), and much fewer than average with no educational qualifications.
It could be argued, though, that Milton Keynes is now so large that it cannot be simply characterized as a whole, that there is variety, there are indeed distinct neighbourhoods and communities, and maybe something, if not for all, then for most people. It is also sufficiently a microcosm politically that both the present MK seats and their successors after the boundary changes will be key marginals that need to be won in order to win the general election itself. As such this area will be a key test for the appeal of post-Corbyn (Starmer’s?) Labour, as well as for whoever will be Prime Minister circa 2024.
One final point. By May 2023 the combined electorate of the wards within Central has already reached 85,212, a feature of the protracted review process in operation in Britain as well as the continued growth of Milton Keynes. By the time of the next boundary commission, yet further boundary changes will be necessary, as this huge and unique experiment continues to evolve.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 10.8% 533/575
Owner occupied 54.7% 459/575
Private rented 24.9% 112/575
Social rented 20.4% 138/575
White 65.6% 482/575
Black 12.4% 39/575
Asian 15.0% 95/575
Managerial & professional 36.4% 191/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.9% 281/575
Degree level 38.8% 134/575
No qualifications 14.9% 422/575
Students 7.9% 158/575
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Stewart 32,011 50.0 +2.5
Labour Hannah O'Neill 25,067 39.2 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Saleyha Ahsan 4,688 7.3 +4.4
Green Alan Francis 1,495 2.3 +0.5
Independent Stephen Fulton 539 0.8 New
CPA Amarachi Ogba 207 0.3 New
C Majority 6,944 10.8 +8.2
Turnout 64,007 66.4 -3.4
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Milton Keynes Central consists of
43.6% of Milton Keynes South
62.3% of Milton Keynes North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_340_Milton%20Keynes%20Central_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 on the new boundaries, Milton Keynes Central (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 25035 | 47.6% |
| Lab | 20083 | 38.1% |
| LD | 5489 | 10.4% |
| Grn | 1297 | 2.5% |
| Oths | 746 | 1.4% |
| Majority | 4952 | 9.4% |