Post by Robert Waller on Nov 3, 2023 22:56:12 GMT
Based on a profile by yellowperil and boundary change analysis by Pete Whitehead, plus updates and additions by me
This is a constituency, created in 1997, which forms a substantial part of Arun district in West Sussex, but excluding up to and including 2019 the mainly downland interior of the district around Arundel and also the most easterly part of the coastal strip bordering on Worthing, primarily the small resort of Rustington. That leaves within the constituency a predominantly built up seaside zone, never much more than a couple of miles from the beaches, and much of it devoted to residential use, often retirement related, some rather unflashy tourist activities, and where not built over much of the remaining land given over to some pretty intensive horticulture. A certain amount of light manufacturing is mostly smallish in scale and unobtrusive - the Body Shop establishments in Littlehampton being something of an exception.
Broadly, it could be divided into 4 distinct and almost equal areas, each with their own characteristics. In the west, a fairly non-urbanised area, tending to look towards Chichester, just over the border of the constituency, but also to some extent suburban to Bognor. This comprises the two Aldwick wards, West and East, Pagham a bit further west and Bersted. One of the few wards not to have its own bit of beach! Then there is Bognor Regis proper, the largest town in the constituency, just, again comprising 4 wards, Pevensey (confusing, that!), Marine, Orchard and Hotham. Further east we come to the third zone, comprising more smallish seaside settlements of Feltham (like Aldwick divided into west and east wards), Middleton -on-Sea and Yapton. Finally we come to the second more substantial resort in Littlehampton, again having 4 wards: Courtwick &Toddington (much easier when it was just called Wick), River, Beach (both appropriately descriptive ward names) and finally Brookfield.
Although the whole constituency is comfortably Conservative and has been since its creation with the same MP (Nick Gibb) returned now for the Conservatives at seven successive general elections with a majority that has grown from a minimum of 5,643 in 2001 to a thumping 22,503 in 2019, Tory support is not uniform over the whole constituency. There is fairly substantial minority support for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Littlehampton, and to a lesser degree in Bognor Regis, but away from these larger towns the Conservatives tend to be very dominant. This is a constituency that is far more strongly Brexiteer than much of the Sussex coast - certainly in contrast with the Brighton conurbation, but even compared with the East Sussex constituencies like Eastbourne and Hastings. The Leave vote in 2016 was 64.8%. UKIP had got over 10,000 votes and 21% in 2010, but never seriously threatened Conservative control , but the constituency as a whole remained fairly typical of many small seaside resorts with above average elderly population.
Probably the most distinctive demographic feature of the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton constituency is its age profile. It is one of the 35 most elderly in the sense of the proportion of residents over 65, which is 27% overall but reaches 44.4% in Aldwick MSOA in the 2021 census, and 35.6% in Middleton-on-Sea. There are few in social rented housing, not much more than 10% overall and only exceeding 20% in northern Bognor and the inland Wick and Toddington neighbourhoods north west if Littlehampton. However the rivate rented sector accounts for over 20% overall and reaches nearly 50% by the sea in both Bognor Regis Central MSOA and Littlehampton West & River. This is not a highly educated constituency, with relatively very few holding degrees, though that is partly a function if the age profile, but it is also far from occupationally upper class, with routine and semi-routine employment well above average in inland Littlehampton and throughout most if Bognor Regis. Full time students are very thin in the ground except in the eastern half of Bognor near its campus of Chichester University.
The local government vote for Arun district had been for some years overwhelmingly Conservative. In the early years of this century Labour had had a strong presence in Littlehampton, while the Lib Dems had a strongish base in Bognor and a smaller one in Littlehampton - in 2003 there 11 Lib Dem district councillors within the constituency, and 8 Labour, while the Tories, not that far ahead on 14, relied on the overwhelming Conservative vote in the rest of Arun district outside this constituency to keep their control of the district. This opposition dwindled at each subsequent local election up to 2015, with the Lib Dems collapsing in Bognor and Labour in Littlehampton (to some degree to the Lib Dems), so that in 2015 Labour had only one councillor left, to 5 Lib Dems , 2 independents and 4 UKIP, while the Tories had 23 councillors within the constituency as well as all the others in the rest of Arun. There was however a dramatic turnaround in May 2019 with the Lib Dems taking 18 seats to 7 for the Conservatives and 9 independents and still just one Labour. The Lib Dems pretty well swept the board in both Bognor and Littlehampton towns - 5 LDs and 3 Indies in Bognor, 7 LDs, 2 Tories and 1 Labour in Littlehampton. The Tories were also wiped out in the area west of Bognor which returned 5 Indies and 4 LDs, while the only patch where the Tories really managed to hang on was in the central patch of Felpham and Middleton - altogether in that middle patch there were 5 Tories to 1 Indy and 2 Lib Dems. Any suggestion that this Conservative collapse might presage a similar turn around at the general election 6 months later were soon dashed, of course, with by far the largest Conservative majority yet, as Labour fell back and the Liberal Democrats, while improving , were still in a distant third place.
The county council elections have for some time been showing the strong political divide between those two larger towns and the rest of the constituency. In the last county council elections in May 2021, the Lib Dems took Littlehampton East and Bognor East, while the other 5 county council seats were Tory. The pattern was not back to 2009 when the split had been 4-4, with the Lib Dems then stronger at the Bognor end, taking both Bognor town divisions and Bersted, but in between in 2013 the county results had shown the strong Kipper tendency in this area, with UKIP then having taken 3 divisions, the Lib Dems 3, and with the Conservatives then squeezed between the two and taking only 2.
One problem for the Conservatives in local elections is that Arun district council was often not highly regarded and perceived as remote and impersonal. This was particularly true in the larger towns with quite active and very political town councils, especially Littlehampton, but Bognor may now have caught up. At present the representation on the two town councils after the May 2023 elections is : Littlehampton LD 6, Lab 9; Bognor LD 10, Lab 2, Ind 2 plus 1 Independent Independent(!) and 1 Grandads Front Room (!!), but no Conservatives at all. Despite these town council elections being fought on party lines*, the Conservative vote in those towns do not seem to have improved even now they are no longer running Arun council.
One thing that does seem clear is that their control damaged the Liberal Democrats, as they lost no fewer than eight seats in the May 2023 election, which meant they in turn lost their majority. The main gainers were Labour (plus 7) not the Conservatives (plus one net). Labour’s advances came in Littlehampton in River ward (three seats) and Courtwick & Toddington (two), and Pevensey in Bognor (two). The Tories gained three in Aldwick and three in Rustington but had losses elsewhere, such as two if those in Courtwick & Toddington pus some in the Arundel & South Downs constituency portion of Arun. Overall Adam Gray’s additions for May 2023 come to 29% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat, 20% Labour and 18% Independent.
In the initial boundary proposals this constituency was to be split into two, with a Bognor Regis seat expanding into Chichester district and Littlehampton being combined in a new Arundel & Littlehampton seat. The revised and final proposals have done a better job of preserving existing arrangements in this area, though at the expense of splitting Bognor. Bersted and Pagham which are integral if peripheral parts of that town are removed to join Chichester. In their place Rustington on the far side of Littlehampton is added from Worthing West. All these areas are generally strong for the Conservatives and the partisan effects are minimal. Although there was some sign in the May 2023 Arun results of the spread of the Brighton –then Hove – then Worthing Labour surge westwards along the Sussex coast, it does not look nearly strong enough, at least as yet, to threaten the Conservative grip - even though on the day of the Sunak reshuffle that brought David Cameron back into the Cabinet, 13 November 2023, Nick Gibb announced that he would retire and not seek an 8th term here.
*As seen here
www.arun.gov.uk/tandp-results-4-may-2023/
though admittedly Hatherleigh ward (untypically) only attracted a turnout of 29 Liberal Democrats and 18 Labour.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.2% 34/575
Owner occupied 68.6% 217/575
Private rented 21.2% 175/575
Social rented 10.3% 506/575
White 95.5% 164/575
Black 0.6% 420/575
Asian 1.7% 421/575
Managerial & professional 28.8% 387/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.4% 154/575
Degree level 24.8% 539/575
No qualifications 20.5% 166/575
Students 4.9% 421/575
General Election 2019: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nick Gibb 32,521 63.5 +4.5
Labour Alan Butcher 10,018 19.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Francis Oppler 5,645 11.0 +4.5
Green Carol Birch 1,826 3.6 +1.7
UKIP David Kurten 846 1.7 -1.9
Independent Andrew Elston 367 0.7 New
C Majority 22,503 43.9 +9.8
2019 electorate 77,488
Turnout 51,223 66.1 -1.6
Conservative hold
Swing +4.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton consists of
84.7% of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
14.3% of Worthing West
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_293_Bognor%20Regis%20and%20Littlehampton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
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This is a constituency, created in 1997, which forms a substantial part of Arun district in West Sussex, but excluding up to and including 2019 the mainly downland interior of the district around Arundel and also the most easterly part of the coastal strip bordering on Worthing, primarily the small resort of Rustington. That leaves within the constituency a predominantly built up seaside zone, never much more than a couple of miles from the beaches, and much of it devoted to residential use, often retirement related, some rather unflashy tourist activities, and where not built over much of the remaining land given over to some pretty intensive horticulture. A certain amount of light manufacturing is mostly smallish in scale and unobtrusive - the Body Shop establishments in Littlehampton being something of an exception.
Broadly, it could be divided into 4 distinct and almost equal areas, each with their own characteristics. In the west, a fairly non-urbanised area, tending to look towards Chichester, just over the border of the constituency, but also to some extent suburban to Bognor. This comprises the two Aldwick wards, West and East, Pagham a bit further west and Bersted. One of the few wards not to have its own bit of beach! Then there is Bognor Regis proper, the largest town in the constituency, just, again comprising 4 wards, Pevensey (confusing, that!), Marine, Orchard and Hotham. Further east we come to the third zone, comprising more smallish seaside settlements of Feltham (like Aldwick divided into west and east wards), Middleton -on-Sea and Yapton. Finally we come to the second more substantial resort in Littlehampton, again having 4 wards: Courtwick &Toddington (much easier when it was just called Wick), River, Beach (both appropriately descriptive ward names) and finally Brookfield.
Although the whole constituency is comfortably Conservative and has been since its creation with the same MP (Nick Gibb) returned now for the Conservatives at seven successive general elections with a majority that has grown from a minimum of 5,643 in 2001 to a thumping 22,503 in 2019, Tory support is not uniform over the whole constituency. There is fairly substantial minority support for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Littlehampton, and to a lesser degree in Bognor Regis, but away from these larger towns the Conservatives tend to be very dominant. This is a constituency that is far more strongly Brexiteer than much of the Sussex coast - certainly in contrast with the Brighton conurbation, but even compared with the East Sussex constituencies like Eastbourne and Hastings. The Leave vote in 2016 was 64.8%. UKIP had got over 10,000 votes and 21% in 2010, but never seriously threatened Conservative control , but the constituency as a whole remained fairly typical of many small seaside resorts with above average elderly population.
Probably the most distinctive demographic feature of the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton constituency is its age profile. It is one of the 35 most elderly in the sense of the proportion of residents over 65, which is 27% overall but reaches 44.4% in Aldwick MSOA in the 2021 census, and 35.6% in Middleton-on-Sea. There are few in social rented housing, not much more than 10% overall and only exceeding 20% in northern Bognor and the inland Wick and Toddington neighbourhoods north west if Littlehampton. However the rivate rented sector accounts for over 20% overall and reaches nearly 50% by the sea in both Bognor Regis Central MSOA and Littlehampton West & River. This is not a highly educated constituency, with relatively very few holding degrees, though that is partly a function if the age profile, but it is also far from occupationally upper class, with routine and semi-routine employment well above average in inland Littlehampton and throughout most if Bognor Regis. Full time students are very thin in the ground except in the eastern half of Bognor near its campus of Chichester University.
The local government vote for Arun district had been for some years overwhelmingly Conservative. In the early years of this century Labour had had a strong presence in Littlehampton, while the Lib Dems had a strongish base in Bognor and a smaller one in Littlehampton - in 2003 there 11 Lib Dem district councillors within the constituency, and 8 Labour, while the Tories, not that far ahead on 14, relied on the overwhelming Conservative vote in the rest of Arun district outside this constituency to keep their control of the district. This opposition dwindled at each subsequent local election up to 2015, with the Lib Dems collapsing in Bognor and Labour in Littlehampton (to some degree to the Lib Dems), so that in 2015 Labour had only one councillor left, to 5 Lib Dems , 2 independents and 4 UKIP, while the Tories had 23 councillors within the constituency as well as all the others in the rest of Arun. There was however a dramatic turnaround in May 2019 with the Lib Dems taking 18 seats to 7 for the Conservatives and 9 independents and still just one Labour. The Lib Dems pretty well swept the board in both Bognor and Littlehampton towns - 5 LDs and 3 Indies in Bognor, 7 LDs, 2 Tories and 1 Labour in Littlehampton. The Tories were also wiped out in the area west of Bognor which returned 5 Indies and 4 LDs, while the only patch where the Tories really managed to hang on was in the central patch of Felpham and Middleton - altogether in that middle patch there were 5 Tories to 1 Indy and 2 Lib Dems. Any suggestion that this Conservative collapse might presage a similar turn around at the general election 6 months later were soon dashed, of course, with by far the largest Conservative majority yet, as Labour fell back and the Liberal Democrats, while improving , were still in a distant third place.
The county council elections have for some time been showing the strong political divide between those two larger towns and the rest of the constituency. In the last county council elections in May 2021, the Lib Dems took Littlehampton East and Bognor East, while the other 5 county council seats were Tory. The pattern was not back to 2009 when the split had been 4-4, with the Lib Dems then stronger at the Bognor end, taking both Bognor town divisions and Bersted, but in between in 2013 the county results had shown the strong Kipper tendency in this area, with UKIP then having taken 3 divisions, the Lib Dems 3, and with the Conservatives then squeezed between the two and taking only 2.
One problem for the Conservatives in local elections is that Arun district council was often not highly regarded and perceived as remote and impersonal. This was particularly true in the larger towns with quite active and very political town councils, especially Littlehampton, but Bognor may now have caught up. At present the representation on the two town councils after the May 2023 elections is : Littlehampton LD 6, Lab 9; Bognor LD 10, Lab 2, Ind 2 plus 1 Independent Independent(!) and 1 Grandads Front Room (!!), but no Conservatives at all. Despite these town council elections being fought on party lines*, the Conservative vote in those towns do not seem to have improved even now they are no longer running Arun council.
One thing that does seem clear is that their control damaged the Liberal Democrats, as they lost no fewer than eight seats in the May 2023 election, which meant they in turn lost their majority. The main gainers were Labour (plus 7) not the Conservatives (plus one net). Labour’s advances came in Littlehampton in River ward (three seats) and Courtwick & Toddington (two), and Pevensey in Bognor (two). The Tories gained three in Aldwick and three in Rustington but had losses elsewhere, such as two if those in Courtwick & Toddington pus some in the Arundel & South Downs constituency portion of Arun. Overall Adam Gray’s additions for May 2023 come to 29% Conservative, 25% Liberal Democrat, 20% Labour and 18% Independent.
In the initial boundary proposals this constituency was to be split into two, with a Bognor Regis seat expanding into Chichester district and Littlehampton being combined in a new Arundel & Littlehampton seat. The revised and final proposals have done a better job of preserving existing arrangements in this area, though at the expense of splitting Bognor. Bersted and Pagham which are integral if peripheral parts of that town are removed to join Chichester. In their place Rustington on the far side of Littlehampton is added from Worthing West. All these areas are generally strong for the Conservatives and the partisan effects are minimal. Although there was some sign in the May 2023 Arun results of the spread of the Brighton –then Hove – then Worthing Labour surge westwards along the Sussex coast, it does not look nearly strong enough, at least as yet, to threaten the Conservative grip - even though on the day of the Sunak reshuffle that brought David Cameron back into the Cabinet, 13 November 2023, Nick Gibb announced that he would retire and not seek an 8th term here.
*As seen here
www.arun.gov.uk/tandp-results-4-may-2023/
though admittedly Hatherleigh ward (untypically) only attracted a turnout of 29 Liberal Democrats and 18 Labour.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 27.2% 34/575
Owner occupied 68.6% 217/575
Private rented 21.2% 175/575
Social rented 10.3% 506/575
White 95.5% 164/575
Black 0.6% 420/575
Asian 1.7% 421/575
Managerial & professional 28.8% 387/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.4% 154/575
Degree level 24.8% 539/575
No qualifications 20.5% 166/575
Students 4.9% 421/575
General Election 2019: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nick Gibb 32,521 63.5 +4.5
Labour Alan Butcher 10,018 19.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Francis Oppler 5,645 11.0 +4.5
Green Carol Birch 1,826 3.6 +1.7
UKIP David Kurten 846 1.7 -1.9
Independent Andrew Elston 367 0.7 New
C Majority 22,503 43.9 +9.8
2019 electorate 77,488
Turnout 51,223 66.1 -1.6
Conservative hold
Swing +4.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton consists of
84.7% of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
14.3% of Worthing West
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_293_Bognor%20Regis%20and%20Littlehampton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 32645 | 62.2% |
| Lab | 9963 | 19.0% |
| LD | 6978 | 13.3% |
| Grn | 1711 | 3.3% |
| Oths | 1213 | 2.3% |
| Majority | 22682 | 43.2% |
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