Post by andrewp on Oct 30, 2023 18:38:51 GMT
The third largest city in Wales, Newport, lies about 12 miles North East of Cardiff at the mouth of the river Usk. Newport grew at the mouth of the river as a port for the Coal mines of the Eastern South Wales valleys and gained City status in 2002.
The built up area of the City, south of the M4, is not far off the ideal size for a single parliamentary constituency, an arrangement that existed prior to 1983. This configuration could however lead to potential issues elsewhere as east-west transport links to the north of the city are not ideal. So it was that In the redistribution of the parliamentary boundaries that came into force for the 1983 general election, the boundary commission split the previously fairly safe Labour seat of Newport along the River Usk to form the basis of 2 new seats. Both halves of the then town were merged with rural and more Conservative territory from the neighbouring Monmouth constituency. Newport had returned Roy Hughes, Labour member since 1966, by 9,000 votes in 1979, and he opted to stand for this East division which had the larger notional Labour majority of 5,600 compared to the 3,100 notional majority in West. He picked wisely, as in the initial contest in Newport East he won by 2,500 votes whilst West was narrowly won by the Conservatives.
The boundaries have remained unchanged since 1983 until 2024 when, like most Welsh seats, the 2 Newport constituencies are under the statutory quota for a parliamentary constituency so change was required. What the commission has arrived at is a ‘Newport East’ seat which could perhaps be called plain Newport and actually will now comprise of most, but not quite all, of the city itself. The current Newport East loses about 13,500 of its non city voters in the fairly detached Severn side communities of Caldicot, Magor and Rogiet which move into the Monmouth seat. That leaves the core of the city East of the river along with some easterly outlying villages- Bishton, Langstone and Llanwern, totalling about 45000 electors or 77% of the current east to move into this East.
They are joined by 30700 voters from, or 46% of, the current Newport West. About 12000 of these are in the wards of Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury and Stow Hill. These wards cover the city centre and Docks on the west side of the Usk, and this really does feel like ‘the’ Newport constituency now.
The other 18000 voters moved from west to east are in the semi detached communities of Bettws, Caerleon and Malpas to the North of the city.
The inner wards of Newport, on both sides of the river are solid labour territory. The strongest wards for Labour on the West side of the river are Stow Hill, which is the ward containing Newport City Centre, and Pillgwenlly a working class area South of the Centre.It is in these wards, where the 5% of the population of Asian origin, a high percentage for Wales, are concentrated. Stow Hill voted over 2 to 1 for Labour in 2022. Labour easily won Pillgwenlly ward as well. The Green Party took one of the seats in Shaftesbury ward, immediately to the north of the city centre from Labour. Working class Wards on the east side of the river, across from the City Centre, like Victoria and Beechwood also voted more than 2 to 1 in Labour’s favour in 2022. Moving east we reach the peripheral former council estates of Ringland and Liswerry. There is not much middle class territory in the city itself here, most of those areas are now in Newport West and Islwyn.
The more semi detached settlements to the North of the city are Malpas, situated above the famously narrow, and congestion causing, Brynglas tunnel on the M4, the mixed hilly 1960s estate of Bettws and then around to the Celtic Manor resort hotels and golf resort, host to the Ryder Cup in 2010 and a NATO summit in 2014 , and the ancient Roman town of Caerleon, with its hillfort which had been occupied from the 5th century BC. All of this territory has been more marginal in recent elections.
This constituency also does still however contain farmland and small villages. Langstone and ( despite its name being notable for the steelworks) Llanwern wards to the east of Newport contain affluent commuter villages where the Conservatives clocked up 58 and 64 percent of the vote respectively in 2022. Llanwern steelworks was built for Richard Thomas and Baldwins and opened in 1962. It was a major local industry and closed in 2001 with the loss of 1300 jobs. Part of the works were demolished in 2004.
This seat will have a relatively large ethnic minority population for Wales. It is 78% white British with the largest ethnic minority populations being of Pakistani ( 3.72%) and Bangladeshi ( 2.18%) populations, concentrated in the central wards. It is a seat with a relatively young age profile and a lower than average percentage of people working in managerial positions. It is 60% owner occupied. It has a lower proportion of people than average who work in managerial positions and fully 24% of adults have no formal qualifications.
The wards in this constituency elected 24 Labour councillors in 2022, 7 Independents, 3 Conservatives and 1 each for the Liberal Democrat’s and Green’s.
The range of territory in this seat is of a level of diversity that is not matched by many other constituencies in Wales, and possibly not by many in the UK- It contains a city centre, some council estates, some fairly rural villages and a roman town.
Unlike its Western partner, East has always remained in the hands of the Labour party. Roy Hughes built his majority up to 10,000 in 1992. Hughes was one of several last minute Labour retirements in 1997 and his replacement was the Conservative/Labour defector Alan Howarth, formerly MP for Stratford on Avon. Howarth served 8 relatively quiet years here and was succeeded as Labour candidate in 2005 by the Surrey born but Welsh educated Jessica Morden. The Liberal Democrats, building on local government success, moved in second place in 2005 and then came within 1,650 votes of winning in 2010. In 2015, the Conservatives moved back into second place. This seat is estimated to have voted 59% leave and in 2019, the Conservatives secured an 8% swing here to cut the Labour majority back from 8,000 to 2,000.
West was represented by Labour veteran Paul Flynn for over 30 years until his death in 2019. In the by election to succeed Flynn held in April 2019, Labour’s Ruth Jones was elected by 2000 votes, and then just 8 months later in a rematch with Conservative Matthew Evans, crept home again by 902 votes.
Taking the more central parts of both seats probably gives Labour a notional majority from 2019 of 3-4000 here and its harder to see this seat falling out of Labour hands than it was the ‘old’ East or West.
The built up area of the City, south of the M4, is not far off the ideal size for a single parliamentary constituency, an arrangement that existed prior to 1983. This configuration could however lead to potential issues elsewhere as east-west transport links to the north of the city are not ideal. So it was that In the redistribution of the parliamentary boundaries that came into force for the 1983 general election, the boundary commission split the previously fairly safe Labour seat of Newport along the River Usk to form the basis of 2 new seats. Both halves of the then town were merged with rural and more Conservative territory from the neighbouring Monmouth constituency. Newport had returned Roy Hughes, Labour member since 1966, by 9,000 votes in 1979, and he opted to stand for this East division which had the larger notional Labour majority of 5,600 compared to the 3,100 notional majority in West. He picked wisely, as in the initial contest in Newport East he won by 2,500 votes whilst West was narrowly won by the Conservatives.
The boundaries have remained unchanged since 1983 until 2024 when, like most Welsh seats, the 2 Newport constituencies are under the statutory quota for a parliamentary constituency so change was required. What the commission has arrived at is a ‘Newport East’ seat which could perhaps be called plain Newport and actually will now comprise of most, but not quite all, of the city itself. The current Newport East loses about 13,500 of its non city voters in the fairly detached Severn side communities of Caldicot, Magor and Rogiet which move into the Monmouth seat. That leaves the core of the city East of the river along with some easterly outlying villages- Bishton, Langstone and Llanwern, totalling about 45000 electors or 77% of the current east to move into this East.
They are joined by 30700 voters from, or 46% of, the current Newport West. About 12000 of these are in the wards of Pillgwenlly, Shaftesbury and Stow Hill. These wards cover the city centre and Docks on the west side of the Usk, and this really does feel like ‘the’ Newport constituency now.
The other 18000 voters moved from west to east are in the semi detached communities of Bettws, Caerleon and Malpas to the North of the city.
The inner wards of Newport, on both sides of the river are solid labour territory. The strongest wards for Labour on the West side of the river are Stow Hill, which is the ward containing Newport City Centre, and Pillgwenlly a working class area South of the Centre.It is in these wards, where the 5% of the population of Asian origin, a high percentage for Wales, are concentrated. Stow Hill voted over 2 to 1 for Labour in 2022. Labour easily won Pillgwenlly ward as well. The Green Party took one of the seats in Shaftesbury ward, immediately to the north of the city centre from Labour. Working class Wards on the east side of the river, across from the City Centre, like Victoria and Beechwood also voted more than 2 to 1 in Labour’s favour in 2022. Moving east we reach the peripheral former council estates of Ringland and Liswerry. There is not much middle class territory in the city itself here, most of those areas are now in Newport West and Islwyn.
The more semi detached settlements to the North of the city are Malpas, situated above the famously narrow, and congestion causing, Brynglas tunnel on the M4, the mixed hilly 1960s estate of Bettws and then around to the Celtic Manor resort hotels and golf resort, host to the Ryder Cup in 2010 and a NATO summit in 2014 , and the ancient Roman town of Caerleon, with its hillfort which had been occupied from the 5th century BC. All of this territory has been more marginal in recent elections.
This constituency also does still however contain farmland and small villages. Langstone and ( despite its name being notable for the steelworks) Llanwern wards to the east of Newport contain affluent commuter villages where the Conservatives clocked up 58 and 64 percent of the vote respectively in 2022. Llanwern steelworks was built for Richard Thomas and Baldwins and opened in 1962. It was a major local industry and closed in 2001 with the loss of 1300 jobs. Part of the works were demolished in 2004.
This seat will have a relatively large ethnic minority population for Wales. It is 78% white British with the largest ethnic minority populations being of Pakistani ( 3.72%) and Bangladeshi ( 2.18%) populations, concentrated in the central wards. It is a seat with a relatively young age profile and a lower than average percentage of people working in managerial positions. It is 60% owner occupied. It has a lower proportion of people than average who work in managerial positions and fully 24% of adults have no formal qualifications.
The wards in this constituency elected 24 Labour councillors in 2022, 7 Independents, 3 Conservatives and 1 each for the Liberal Democrat’s and Green’s.
The range of territory in this seat is of a level of diversity that is not matched by many other constituencies in Wales, and possibly not by many in the UK- It contains a city centre, some council estates, some fairly rural villages and a roman town.
Unlike its Western partner, East has always remained in the hands of the Labour party. Roy Hughes built his majority up to 10,000 in 1992. Hughes was one of several last minute Labour retirements in 1997 and his replacement was the Conservative/Labour defector Alan Howarth, formerly MP for Stratford on Avon. Howarth served 8 relatively quiet years here and was succeeded as Labour candidate in 2005 by the Surrey born but Welsh educated Jessica Morden. The Liberal Democrats, building on local government success, moved in second place in 2005 and then came within 1,650 votes of winning in 2010. In 2015, the Conservatives moved back into second place. This seat is estimated to have voted 59% leave and in 2019, the Conservatives secured an 8% swing here to cut the Labour majority back from 8,000 to 2,000.
West was represented by Labour veteran Paul Flynn for over 30 years until his death in 2019. In the by election to succeed Flynn held in April 2019, Labour’s Ruth Jones was elected by 2000 votes, and then just 8 months later in a rematch with Conservative Matthew Evans, crept home again by 902 votes.
Taking the more central parts of both seats probably gives Labour a notional majority from 2019 of 3-4000 here and its harder to see this seat falling out of Labour hands than it was the ‘old’ East or West.
