Colombia, elections

[Georg Ebner]

As expected, the right candidates are doing well in the regional&local elections:

Bogota: Galán (New Liberalism), son of the 1989 murdered presidential candidate, was outright elected with nearly 50%.
Medellín: A cons. received 3/4.
Barranquilla: The same.
Cali: An AfroAmerican cons. standsminimally above 40%, the liberal contender is below - thus a runOff could be avoided.

Antioquia: As usual going to Uribismo. 

Addendum:
Apart from Galán being not a Cons. in several important provinces the liberal/centrist candidates seem to be ahead.
But quite certainly bad numbers for the left around president Petro.

[maxque]

Oct 30, 2023 1:56:44 GMT Georg Ebner said:

As expected, the right candidates are doing well in the regional&local elections:

Bogota: Galán (New Liberalism), son of the 1989 murdered presidential candidate, was outright elected with nearly 50%.
Medellín: A cons. received 3/4.
Barranquilla: The same.
Cali: An AfroAmerican cons. standsminimally above 40%, the liberal contender is below - thus a runOff could be avoided.

Antioquia: As usual going to Uribismo. 

Addendum:
Apart from Galán being not a Cons. in several important provinces the liberal/centrist candidates seem to be ahead.
But quite certainly bad numbers for the left around president Petro.

There is no runoffs in Columbia, except in Bogota (which has a different status, as it's both a province and a city at the same time).

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 30, 2023 5:01:15 GMT maxque said:

Oct 30, 2023 1:56:44 GMT Georg Ebner said:

As expected, the right candidates are doing well in the regional&local elections:

Bogota: Galán (New Liberalism), son of the 1989 murdered presidential candidate, was outright elected with nearly 50%.
Medellín: A cons. received 3/4.
Barranquilla: The same.
Cali: An AfroAmerican cons. standsminimally above 40%, the liberal contender is below - thus a runOff could be avoided.

Antioquia: As usual going to Uribismo. 

Addendum:
Apart from Galán being not a Cons. in several important provinces the liberal/centrist candidates seem to be ahead.
But quite certainly bad numbers for the left around president Petro.

There is no runoffs in Columbia, except in Bogota (which has a different status, as it's both a province and a city at the same time).

And if the forum's resentmentRanters delivered us some numberCrunching instead, i would have the time to have a closer look.

[rcronald]

Oct 30, 2023 5:01:15 GMT maxque said:

Oct 30, 2023 1:56:44 GMT Georg Ebner said:

As expected, the right candidates are doing well in the regional&local elections:

Bogota: Galán (New Liberalism), son of the 1989 murdered presidential candidate, was outright elected with nearly 50%.
Medellín: A cons. received 3/4.
Barranquilla: The same.
Cali: An AfroAmerican cons. standsminimally above 40%, the liberal contender is below - thus a runOff could be avoided.

Antioquia: As usual going to Uribismo. 

Addendum:
Apart from Galán being not a Cons. in several important provinces the liberal/centrist candidates seem to be ahead.
But quite certainly bad numbers for the left around president Petro.

There is no runoffs in Columbia, except in Bogota (which has a different status, as it's both a province and a city at the same time).

So there are no runoffs in both the gubernatorial elections and the mayoral ones?

[rcronald]

I noticed that Ivan Duque won 2 of the 3 provinces won by a Petro backed candidate.

[iain]

Oct 31, 2023 6:03:30 GMT rcronald said:

So there are no runoffs in both the gubernatorial elections and the mayoral ones?

Correct.

To the extent that these elections can be looked at nationally, they are indeed poor for the left, but these elections are very much fought on local issues - it's very common for the same area to vote for ideologically quite  different candidates for Mayor and Governor for example. Local elections in Colombia are very much still the fief of 'traditional' parties - mostly ranging from the centre to the right in terms of notional ideology, but in most places little more than a badge of convenience for the local clientelist machine. It's also worth remembering that there are also no consecutive terms allowed for Mayors and Governors, so different coalitions of parties emerge each four years, and it can be difficult to pin down exactly what candidates stand for.

That said, La Silla Vacía (an excellent resource for Colombian election / political coverage) have attempted to classify the winners according to ideology, and this is what they've come up with:

Governors:
Right - 13 (-4)
Centre Right - 10 (-)
Centre - 6 (+5)
Left - 3 (+2)
Centre Left - 0 (-3)

Mayors of Department Capitals:
Right - 11 (+3)
Centre Right - 10 (-)
Centre - 7 (+1)
Centre Left - 2 (-3)
Left - 2 (-1)

[rcronald]

Oct 31, 2023 10:02:32 GMT iain said:

Oct 31, 2023 6:03:30 GMT rcronald said:

So there are no runoffs in both the gubernatorial elections and the mayoral ones?

Correct.

To the extent that these elections can be looked at nationally, they are indeed poor for the left, but these elections are very much fought on local issues - it's very common for the same area to vote for ideologically quite  different candidates for Mayor and Governor for example. Local elections in Colombia are very much still the fief of 'traditional' parties - mostly ranging from the centre to the right in terms of notional ideology, but in most places little more than a badge of convenience for the local clientelist machine. It's also worth remembering that there are also no consecutive terms allowed for Mayors and Governors, so different coalitions of parties emerge each four years, and it can be difficult to pin down exactly what candidates stand for.

That said, La Silla Vacía (an excellent resource for Colombian election / political coverage) have attempted to classify the winners according to ideology, and this is what they've come up with:

Governors:
Right - 13 (-4)
Centre Right - 10 (-)
Centre - 6 (+5)
Left - 3 (+2)
Centre Left - 0 (-3)

Mayors of Department Capitals:
Right - 11 (+3)
Centre Right - 10 (-)
Centre - 7 (+1)
Centre Left - 2 (-3)
Left - 2 (-1)

Thank you. I've been trying to figure out which winners from U and Greens are Centre, Centre right, or centre left. Seems like the new Green governors are less left leaning than their counterparts from the last election, while the U numbers seem like the majority are from the more right-leaning wing of the party.


Btw, do you have the ideology of each governor-elect?

[iain]

The Silla Vacía map is here - www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacional/el-giro-a-la-izquierda-se-frena-en-las-elecciones-regionales-de-2023/

Broadly speaking, focusing on the results in the big cities / provinces makes most sense, as, whilst 'machines' are still important, there tends to be a much larger 'opinion vote', so results here are more meaningful in terms of looking ahead to national elections.

In terms of the big prizes:


Bogotá - Galán 49%, Oviedo 20%, Bolívar 19%

Outgoing mayor Claudia López is a centrist Green, whilst her successor, Carlos Fernando Galán (who she narrowly beat back in 2019), is also a centrist and has a similar vision for the city. Second placed Juan Daniel Oviedo is centre right, but liberal and technocratic, and would likely have followed a similar path in power to López and Galán. Gustavo Bolívar was the candidate of the left and increased their vote from 2019, but it was a big fall from Petro's 47% in the first round of the Presidential election last year.

The biggest issue here was the ongoing saga of the Bogotá Metro (Bogotá is the third largest city in the world without a metro, and is incredibly congested), which can largely explain the poor performance for the left. A metro has been planned since the 1940s but has suffered setback after setback, including the issue of successive mayors wanting to rip up existing plans and start again. The current controversy comes down to the fact that Petro in his term as mayor planned an underground metro, but his successor decided the metro should run above ground. López favoured underground, but once in power she decided to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good and forge ahead with an above ground line, whilst planning future lines underground. Work finally started on Line 1 in 2020, but since Petro gained power nationally he has been obsessed with trying to restart the project, including threatening to withold other funds to the city unless work was stopped and new plans made. López refused, and all candidates this time with the exception of Bolívar supported her stance. People in Bogotá are fed up of the constant chopping and changing, and just want a metro system in place - and voted accordingly.



Medellín - Gutiérrez 73%, Upegui 10%

Incumbent mayor Daniel Quintero is centre left-ish and won power in this traditionally right wing bastion in a major shock in 2019. In power he has become very unpopular, with a number of corruption scandals and a poor record. His chosen successor, Juan Carlos Upegui, did predictably badly. The winner, Federico 'Fico' Gutiérrez, was Quintero's predecessor. He originally won in a surprise as a centre right alternative to Uribismo (this city is Uribismo's main political base), but drifted right during his term and ended up running for president in 2022 (finishing third) as the de facto Uribista candidate. In power he had an objectively very poor record, including on his top priority of crime, where he performed notably worse than both his predecessor and successor, but nontheless left office with sky high approval ratings of over 80%. The scale of his victory is a mild surprise, but he was always expected to win well in excess of 50%.



Cali - Éder 40%, Ortíz 28%, Rentería 11%

Jorge Iván Ospina, the outgoing mayor, is very unpopular, having been dogged by corruption scandals and with a poor record (in contrast to his first term from 2007-11, where he remained popular and had some notable achievements. He is a leftist Green, but lining his pockets appears to have become his main ideology in power. His unpopularity probably contributed to the poor performance of Petro's candidate, Danis Rentería, though Rentería was an odd choice of candidate - he ran for a Christian right party in 2019, and didn't have the full backing of the Pacto Histórico. Much of the leftist 'base' in Cali (Petro won 53% here in the first round in 2022) will have voted for Roberto Ortíz, a populist lottery magnate who has achieved electoral success based around the poor women who sell his lottery tickets. The winning candidate, Alejandro Éder, is broadly centrist / centre right and had the backing of the city's influential business elite. He ran as Sergio Fajardo's candidate in 2019, finishing third, but has allied this time with traditional 'machine' parties.



Barranquilla - Char 73%, Bohórquez 9%

Alex Char is back for his third term as mayor, extending Charismo's (named for his father, not him) unbroken control of the city to 20 years by the end of this term. The Char family run Colombia's most successful electoral machine (they quite literally own about half the city), thanks in part to many corrupt and dodgy practices, but also the fact that their record running the city has been rather decent. Barranquilla is often cited as an 'up and coming' city, and Alex Char left power in 2019 with an approval rating over 90%! Char ran (an incredibly lacklustre campaign) in the right wing Presidential primary in 2022. The left originally had delusions of taking control of the city after Petro's victory here last year, but their campaign was a shit show from start to finish, and Bohórquez got a slightly worse result than last time (13%).



Bucaramanga - Beltrán 35%, Parra 15%, Oviedo 13%, Serpa 9%, Ordóñez 9%

Previously run by populist oddball, and almost President, Rodolfo Hernández, he was able to elect his chosen successor, Alejandro Cárdenas, in 2019. Cárdenas, broadly a centrist, has become quite unpopular, and wasn't able to repeat the feat. His chosen candidate was Fabián Oviedo, who was also supported by a range of other shady characters. He also flirted with backing Horacio Serpa, son of former Liberal Presidential candidate and ex-governor of Santander, Horacio Serpa. However Serpa Jr's previous political runs had been in Bogotá, and he wasn't able to win a meaningful level support. The other main losing candidates were Consuelo Ordóñez, a big critic of Rodolfo Hernández's administration who this time ran with the endorsement of his party, and Carlos Felipe Parra, a centre left 'opinion' candidate with the backing of the Greens and Sergio Fajardo. The new Mayor is Jaime Andrés Beltrán, a Nayib Bukele fan and evangelical pastor whose campaign was propped up by a number of 'machines'. His major promises are based around hardline security policies, many of which he has no powers to implement as a Mayor.



Cartagena - Turbay 43%, Bejarano 15%, Pinedo 10%, García 10%

The poster child for Colombian political disfunction, Cartagena has been governed by a succession of corrupt and ineffective mayors backed by extremely dodgy political clans and machines. That is until 2019, when anti-corruption outsider William Dau took power in a huge shock. Unfortunately, whilst not corrupt, Dau has been just as useless as his predecessors, and quickly became very unpopular. He was implicitly seen as backing Judith Pinedo, who had herself upset the traditional politicians by winning the election for Mayor in 2007 - before ending up wrongly imprisoned for 2 years due to cases brought by her political opponents. Her administration had been seen as doing a fairly good job, but Dau's endorsement was never likely to be helpful in this contest. Javier Julio Bejarano was the Pacto's (Petro's) candidate, and was never really able to get off the ground in this campaign. William García was the 'machine' candidate beaten by Dau last time, whilst this time they backed eventual winner Dumek Turbay. He is a former governor, and also gained the support of centrist parties with a 'cleaner' image.

[rcronald]

Oct 31, 2023 13:44:52 GMT iain said:

The Silla Vacía map is here - www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacional/el-giro-a-la-izquierda-se-frena-en-las-elecciones-regionales-de-2023/

Broadly speaking, focusing on the results in the big cities / provinces makes most sense, as, whilst 'machines' are still important, there tends to be a much larger 'opinion vote', so results here are more meaningful in terms of looking ahead to national elections.

In terms of the big prizes:


Bogotá - Galán 49%, Oviedo 20%, Bolívar 19%

Outgoing mayor Claudia López is a centrist Green, whilst her successor, Carlos Fernando Galán (who she narrowly beat back in 2019), is also a centrist and has a similar vision for the city. Second placed Juan Daniel Oviedo is centre right, but liberal and technocratic, and would likely have followed a similar path in power to López and Galán. Gustavo Bolívar was the candidate of the left and increased their vote from 2019, but it was a big fall from Petro's 47% in the first round of the Presidential election last year.

The biggest issue here was the ongoing saga of the Bogotá Metro (Bogotá is the third largest city in the world without a metro, and is incredibly congested), which can largely explain the poor performance for the left. A metro has been planned since the 1940s but has suffered setback after setback, including the issue of successive mayors wanting to rip up existing plans and start again. The current controversy comes down to the fact that Petro in his term as mayor planned an underground metro, but his successor decided the metro should run above ground. López favoured underground, but once in power she decided to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good and forge ahead with an above ground line, whilst planning future lines underground. Work finally started on Line 1 in 2020, but since Petro gained power nationally he has been obsessed with trying to restart the project, including threatening to withold other funds to the city unless work was stopped and new plans made. López refused, and all candidates this time with the exception of Bolívar supported her stance. People in Bogotá are fed up of the constant chopping and changing, and just want a metro system in place - and voted accordingly.



Medellín - Gutiérrez 73%, Upegui 10%

Incumbent mayor Daniel Quintero is centre left-ish and won power in this traditionally right wing bastion in a major shock in 2019. In power he has become very unpopular, with a number of corruption scandals and a poor record. His chosen successor, Juan Carlos Upegui, did predictably badly. The winner, Federico 'Fico' Gutiérrez, was Quintero's predecessor. He originally won in a surprise as a centre right alternative to Uribismo (this city is Uribismo's main political base), but drifted right during his term and ended up running for president in 2022 (finishing third) as the de facto Uribista candidate. In power he had an objectively very poor record, including on his top priority of crime, where he performed notably worse than both his predecessor and successor, but nontheless left office with sky high approval ratings of over 80%. The scale of his victory is a mild surprise, but he was always expected to win well in excess of 50%.



Cali - Éder 40%, Ortíz 28%, Rentería 11%

Jorge Iván Ospina, the outgoing mayor, is very unpopular, having been dogged by corruption scandals and with a poor record (in contrast to his first term from 2007-11, where he remained popular and had some notable achievements. He is a leftist Green, but lining his pockets appears to have become his main ideology in power. His unpopularity probably contributed to the poor performance of Petro's candidate, Danis Rentería, though Rentería was an odd choice of candidate - he ran for a Christian right party in 2019, and didn't have the full backing of the Pacto Histórico. Much of the leftist 'base' in Cali (Petro won 53% here in the first round in 2022) will have voted for Roberto Ortíz, a populist lottery magnate who has achieved electoral success based around the poor women who sell his lottery tickets. The winning candidate, Alejandro Éder, is broadly centrist / centre right and had the backing of the city's influential business elite. He ran as Sergio Fajardo's candidate in 2019, finishing third, but has allied this time with traditional 'machine' parties.



Barranquilla - Char 73%, Bohórquez 9%

Alex Char is back for his third term as mayor, extending Charismo's (named for his father, not him) unbroken control of the city to 20 years by the end of this term. The Char family run Colombia's most successful electoral machine (they quite literally own about half the city), thanks in part to many corrupt and dodgy practices, but also the fact that their record running the city has been rather decent. Barranquilla is often cited as an 'up and coming' city, and Alex Char left power in 2019 with an approval rating over 90%! Char ran (an incredibly lacklustre campaign) in the right wing Presidential primary in 2022. The left originally had delusions of taking control of the city after Petro's victory here last year, but their campaign was a shit show from start to finish, and Bohórquez got a slightly worse result than last time (13%).



Bucaramanga - Beltrán 35%, Parra 15%, Oviedo 13%, Serpa 9%, Ordóñez 9%

Previously run by populist oddball, and almost President, Rodolfo Hernández, he was able to elect his chosen successor, Alejandro Cárdenas, in 2019. Cárdenas, broadly a centrist, has become quite unpopular, and wasn't able to repeat the feat. His chosen candidate was Fabián Oviedo, who was also supported by a range of other shady characters. He also flirted with backing Horacio Serpa, son of former Liberal Presidential candidate and ex-governor of Santander, Horacio Serpa. However Serpa Jr's previous political runs had been in Bogotá, and he wasn't able to win a meaningful level support. The other main losing candidates were Consuelo Ordóñez, a big critic of Rodolfo Hernández's administration who this time ran with the endorsement of his party, and Carlos Felipe Parra, a centre left 'opinion' candidate with the backing of the Greens and Sergio Fajardo. The new Mayor is Jaime Andrés Beltrán, a Nayib Bukele fan and evangelical pastor whose campaign was propped up by a number of 'machines'. His major promises are based around hardline security policies, many of which he has no powers to implement as a Mayor.



Cartagena - Turbay 43%, Bejarano 15%, Pinedo 10%, García 10%

The poster child for Colombian political disfunction, Cartagena has been governed by a succession of corrupt and ineffective mayors backed by extremely dodgy political clans and machines. That is until 2019, when anti-corruption outsider William Dau took power in a huge shock. Unfortunately, whilst not corrupt, Dau has been just as useless as his predecessors, and quickly became very unpopular. He was implicitly seen as backing Judith Pinedo, who had herself upset the traditional politicians by winning the election for Mayor in 2007 - before ending up wrongly imprisoned for 2 years due to cases brought by her political opponents. Her administration had been seen as doing a fairly good job, but Dau's endorsement was never likely to be helpful in this contest. Javier Julio Bejarano was the Pacto's (Petro's) candidate, and was never really able to get off the ground in this campaign. William García was the 'machine' candidate beaten by Dau last time, whilst this time they backed eventual winner Dumek Turbay. He is a former governor, and also gained the support of centrist parties with a 'cleaner' image.

Looks like I would have voted for the left-wing candidate in Bogotá if the Metro was the only major issue, but I suspect that it wasn’t, and that I would have supported Oviedo.

[iain]

Oct 31, 2023 14:13:04 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like I would have voted for the left-wing candidate in Bogotá if the Metro was the only major issue, but I suspect that it wasn’t, and that I would have supported Oviedo.

Well there is never just one issue, but it certainly dominated the campaign, with crime as another big issue. If you're interested then this is an outline of where all the candidates stood on the four main policy areas the mayor has control over (transport, security, environment / planning and poverty reduction):
www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacional/bogota/que-tanto-se-parecen-a-claudia-los-candidatos-a-la-alcaldia-de-bogota-2/

From your posting history here I suspect you would have supported one of the fringe right wing candidates

[rcronald]

Oct 31, 2023 15:22:27 GMT iain said:

Oct 31, 2023 14:13:04 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like I would have voted for the left-wing candidate in Bogotá if the Metro was the only major issue, but I suspect that it wasn’t, and that I would have supported Oviedo.

Well there is never just one issue, but it certainly dominated the campaign, with crime as another big issue. If you're interested then this is an outline of where all the candidates stood on the four main policy areas the mayor has control over (transport, security, environment / planning and poverty reduction):
www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacional/bogota/que-tanto-se-parecen-a-claudia-los-candidatos-a-la-alcaldia-de-bogota-2/

From your posting history here I suspect you would have supported one of the fringe right wing candidates

Thank you for the link. Btw, I’m significantly more pragmatic than you think. 😊

[rcronald]

Oct 31, 2023 15:28:58 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 31, 2023 15:22:27 GMT iain said:

Well there is never just one issue, but it certainly dominated the campaign, with crime as another big issue. If you're interested then this is an outline of where all the candidates stood on the four main policy areas the mayor has control over (transport, security, environment / planning and poverty reduction):
www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacional/bogota/que-tanto-se-parecen-a-claudia-los-candidatos-a-la-alcaldia-de-bogota-2/

From your posting history here I suspect you would have supported one of the fringe right wing candidates

Thank you for the link. Btw, I’m significantly more pragmatic than you think. 😊

Theoretically, I’m closest to Molano and Lara (like you said), but to my surprise, I’m very much a toss-up between Galan, and Oviedo (slight edge to Galan on mobility, slight edge to Oviedo on crime and essentially a tie on poverty reduction & Urban Planning) and would have voted for one of them to make sure my vote doesn’t go to waste.

Edit: I suspect Galan’s plans cost more money, so I guess I would have preferred Oviedo to him by a slight margin.

[Georg Ebner]

Yes, La Silla Vacia is helpful (not much else, unfortunately). In the mentioned article with the maps are also the positions of several governors on abortion/... Their colouring was misleading, here is another variant for
- 2019

- 2023

A TeleVision-channel split the governors into pro/contra-government, which differ quite a lot (because e.g. Mr.Uribe has not gone into the opPosition-camp so far):

The original map (incl. the mayors of the capitals):