Post by gerrardwinstanley on Oct 29, 2023 12:02:36 GMT
After the Liberal landslide of 1906, Valentine Fleming – father of the James Bond author Ian Fleming – won the seat of Henley back for the Conservative Party in 1910. Since that election, the seat has continuously returned Conservative MPs. A number of prominent Tory politicians have represented Henley, including the former cabinet minister, Michael Heseltine, and the former prime minister, Boris Johnson. The seat is currently represented by John Howell; however, Howell has confirmed that he will not stand at the next general election. Moreover, at the next election, the seat will now be known as Henley and Thame, following the 2023 boundary review.
The seat was created by the Redistribution of Seats Act of 1885, as one of three seats which covered the county of Oxfordshire. The ceremonial county is now represented by seven constituencies. During its existence, the boundaries of Henley and Thame have changed considerably. From 1918 until 1974, the seat covered much of eastern Oxfordshire, stretching from Henley in the south to Bicester and beyond in the north. During this period, however, parts of this constituency were transferred to the Oxford and Reading seats, corresponding to the expansion of both boroughs. Following boundary changes for the February 1974 general election, Henley, as it was just known then, was drastically reduced in size, only taking in the southern tail of Oxfordshire. Over the years, however, the Henley seat has creeped further north again, and before the 2023 review, the seat once again covered much of eastern Oxfordshire, stretching up to the edges of Bicester. Thankfully, this review has removed these northern Cherwell wards from the constituency, producing a more coherent and compact seat, whereby all the wards in Henley and Thame belong to the district of South Oxfordshire. These Cherwell wards have been incorporated into the Bicester and Woodstock constituency – a brand new seat, created due to the significant population increase in Oxfordshire. In the west, Henley and Thame has also lost one South Oxfordshire ward to the re-named Didcot and Wantage seat: “Sandford & The Wittenhams”. Arguably, this ward fits better into Didcot and Wantage anyway, with most of the villages in this ward looking towards Didcot and Wallingford, rather than Henley and Thame, as their primary centres.
As well as dominating national elections in Henley and Thame, the Conservatives have also controlled South Oxfordshire District Council for much of its existence. To note, however, the western areas of the South Oxfordshire district – the areas that are part of the historic county of Berkshire – are represented by Didcot and Wantage. Prior to the 2019 local election, the Conservative’s main opposition were the Liberal Democrats, who have historically been strongest in Wheatley and other villages on the eastern outskirts of Oxford. Nevertheless, at the 2019 local election there was a dramatic change in the political landscape of the council: the Conservatives lost 23 seats, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens gained 12 and 5 seats respectively. All three wards in the the town of Henley were won by a residents group. Following the election, a ‘rainbow coalition’ was formed, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens taking control of the administration. Whilst normality resumed at the 2019 general election, where the Conservative John Howell was easily reelected, the Liberal Democrats did achieve their best result in the seat. The Remain-nature of this seat is a likely explainer for the Liberals strong performance at this election. Indeed, Conservative decline in South Oxfordshire has continued, where they were reduced to all but one councillor at the 2023 local elections. This councillor, too, represents a ward in Didcot, hence within once true-blue Henley and Thame, there is currently not a single Conservative councillor within the seat at district level. That said, there are Conservative councillors on the county council. Both the Liberal Democrats and Greens have been the benefiters of Tory decline in this “Blue wall” seat. Generally, this seat is a mix of fiscally conversative and socially liberal views; the shift to the right under successive Conservative leaders, then, may be a reason for their decline in support in recent years. One might suggest that “Cameronism”, instead, is a good representative of the ideological mindset of a majority of voters in Henley and Thame.
In the east of the seat are the rolling Chiltern Hills, and running along the western and southern border is the river Thames. Located on the Thames is the pretty market town which, until recently, exclusively gave name to this seat: Henley. This small town is famous for its annual rowing regatta and is a byword for middle class. Although in Oxfordshire, Henley is far closer to Reading than the county town, and as it is only some 33 miles from central London, it is a popular commuter town with well-paid, managerial professionals who work in the capital. Other significant settlements in the seat are the small towns of Thame and Chinnor – the former of which has been added to the name of the constituency, due to its population being slightly bigger than Henley’s, and to represent those electors in the north of the seat who feel little connection to Henley. Many of the towns and villages in this seat are filming locations for the TV series ‘Midsomer Murders’. The show offers a watercolour of ‘middle England', with fetes, village greens, and characterful pubs. Minus the murders, the show provides a glimpse (if not a slightly romanticized one) of what life is like in the villages that make up this seat. Dorchester-on-Thames is a good example of one of these villages, a charming and historic place which sits at the confluence of the rivers Thame and Thames; unlike the village's monastic buildings, its beautiful Norman abbey church survived the dissolution of the monasteries.
Like Henley itself, the rest of the constituency is affluent, particularly as you move further east and south, where commuting to London is easiest. The constituency benefits from high-speed connections to Paddington and Marylebone. The average income in this seat is way above national and regional averages, with property prices to match. There are, however, small pockets of deprivation; in the large post-war village of Berinsfield, for example, 19% of children are living in poverty compared with 7% across the South Oxfordshire district. Nevertheless, this deprivation is an outlier, with the seat ranking as the 517th least deprived in England - out of 533.
It was once hard to imagine a situation where Henley and Thame would not return a Conservative candidate at a general election. However, the inroads made by opposition parties at local level offer a possible route to a more competitive seat in the future. Arguably, it is the Liberal Democrats who are best placed to challenge the Tories here; indeed, after Didcot and Wantage, Henley and Thame is probably their main target in Oxfordshire. As huge Tory majorities are being surpassed in by-elections leading up to the next election, perhaps a Liberal Democrat win here is thus not out of the question, if not still unlikely.
The seat was created by the Redistribution of Seats Act of 1885, as one of three seats which covered the county of Oxfordshire. The ceremonial county is now represented by seven constituencies. During its existence, the boundaries of Henley and Thame have changed considerably. From 1918 until 1974, the seat covered much of eastern Oxfordshire, stretching from Henley in the south to Bicester and beyond in the north. During this period, however, parts of this constituency were transferred to the Oxford and Reading seats, corresponding to the expansion of both boroughs. Following boundary changes for the February 1974 general election, Henley, as it was just known then, was drastically reduced in size, only taking in the southern tail of Oxfordshire. Over the years, however, the Henley seat has creeped further north again, and before the 2023 review, the seat once again covered much of eastern Oxfordshire, stretching up to the edges of Bicester. Thankfully, this review has removed these northern Cherwell wards from the constituency, producing a more coherent and compact seat, whereby all the wards in Henley and Thame belong to the district of South Oxfordshire. These Cherwell wards have been incorporated into the Bicester and Woodstock constituency – a brand new seat, created due to the significant population increase in Oxfordshire. In the west, Henley and Thame has also lost one South Oxfordshire ward to the re-named Didcot and Wantage seat: “Sandford & The Wittenhams”. Arguably, this ward fits better into Didcot and Wantage anyway, with most of the villages in this ward looking towards Didcot and Wallingford, rather than Henley and Thame, as their primary centres.
As well as dominating national elections in Henley and Thame, the Conservatives have also controlled South Oxfordshire District Council for much of its existence. To note, however, the western areas of the South Oxfordshire district – the areas that are part of the historic county of Berkshire – are represented by Didcot and Wantage. Prior to the 2019 local election, the Conservative’s main opposition were the Liberal Democrats, who have historically been strongest in Wheatley and other villages on the eastern outskirts of Oxford. Nevertheless, at the 2019 local election there was a dramatic change in the political landscape of the council: the Conservatives lost 23 seats, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens gained 12 and 5 seats respectively. All three wards in the the town of Henley were won by a residents group. Following the election, a ‘rainbow coalition’ was formed, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens taking control of the administration. Whilst normality resumed at the 2019 general election, where the Conservative John Howell was easily reelected, the Liberal Democrats did achieve their best result in the seat. The Remain-nature of this seat is a likely explainer for the Liberals strong performance at this election. Indeed, Conservative decline in South Oxfordshire has continued, where they were reduced to all but one councillor at the 2023 local elections. This councillor, too, represents a ward in Didcot, hence within once true-blue Henley and Thame, there is currently not a single Conservative councillor within the seat at district level. That said, there are Conservative councillors on the county council. Both the Liberal Democrats and Greens have been the benefiters of Tory decline in this “Blue wall” seat. Generally, this seat is a mix of fiscally conversative and socially liberal views; the shift to the right under successive Conservative leaders, then, may be a reason for their decline in support in recent years. One might suggest that “Cameronism”, instead, is a good representative of the ideological mindset of a majority of voters in Henley and Thame.
In the east of the seat are the rolling Chiltern Hills, and running along the western and southern border is the river Thames. Located on the Thames is the pretty market town which, until recently, exclusively gave name to this seat: Henley. This small town is famous for its annual rowing regatta and is a byword for middle class. Although in Oxfordshire, Henley is far closer to Reading than the county town, and as it is only some 33 miles from central London, it is a popular commuter town with well-paid, managerial professionals who work in the capital. Other significant settlements in the seat are the small towns of Thame and Chinnor – the former of which has been added to the name of the constituency, due to its population being slightly bigger than Henley’s, and to represent those electors in the north of the seat who feel little connection to Henley. Many of the towns and villages in this seat are filming locations for the TV series ‘Midsomer Murders’. The show offers a watercolour of ‘middle England', with fetes, village greens, and characterful pubs. Minus the murders, the show provides a glimpse (if not a slightly romanticized one) of what life is like in the villages that make up this seat. Dorchester-on-Thames is a good example of one of these villages, a charming and historic place which sits at the confluence of the rivers Thame and Thames; unlike the village's monastic buildings, its beautiful Norman abbey church survived the dissolution of the monasteries.
Like Henley itself, the rest of the constituency is affluent, particularly as you move further east and south, where commuting to London is easiest. The constituency benefits from high-speed connections to Paddington and Marylebone. The average income in this seat is way above national and regional averages, with property prices to match. There are, however, small pockets of deprivation; in the large post-war village of Berinsfield, for example, 19% of children are living in poverty compared with 7% across the South Oxfordshire district. Nevertheless, this deprivation is an outlier, with the seat ranking as the 517th least deprived in England - out of 533.
It was once hard to imagine a situation where Henley and Thame would not return a Conservative candidate at a general election. However, the inroads made by opposition parties at local level offer a possible route to a more competitive seat in the future. Arguably, it is the Liberal Democrats who are best placed to challenge the Tories here; indeed, after Didcot and Wantage, Henley and Thame is probably their main target in Oxfordshire. As huge Tory majorities are being surpassed in by-elections leading up to the next election, perhaps a Liberal Democrat win here is thus not out of the question, if not still unlikely.
