1979 Scottish Tory collapse

[weld]

In 1979, Labour's only gain from the Tories was Glasgow, Cathcart (sans by-election regains). They got close in several others, including:

Aberdeen South (Conservative majority 772)
Edinburgh Pentlands (Conservative majority 1,198)
Edinburgh South (Conservative majority 2,460)
Glasgow, Hillhead (Conservative majority 2,002)

That, and the SNP narrowly lost the following:

Aberdeenshire East (Tory lead 558)
Argyll (Tory lead 1,646)
Banffshire (Tory lead 799)
Moray and Nairn (Tory lead 420)
South Angus (Tory lead 963)

The Liberals were close in one seat:

West Aberdeenshire (Conservative lead 2,766)

What if the Scottish Tories win ten fewer seats in 1979 than IOT? Thatcher would have a majortiy of 22 or so.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

In 1979 Labour also gained East Dunbartonshire from the SNP, when it had been Conservative in February 1974.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Oct 27, 2023 9:22:52 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

In 1979 Labour also gained East Dunbartonshire from the SNP, when it had been Conservative in February 1974.

From a narrow 3rd place! The BBC did an exit poll in the seat on the night

[The Bishop]

Constituency exit polls were a feature of BBC election programmes from 1970-79, despite being fairly accurate overall they seemed to go out of fashion after that.

[weld]

Suppose the result was:

Conservative: 329
Labour: 274
Liberal: 12
SNP: 7

How is the 1979 - 1983 Parliament different?

[johnloony]

Oct 27, 2023 10:46:55 GMT weld said:

Suppose the result was:

Conservative: 329
Labour: 274
Liberal: 12
SNP: 7

How is the 1979 - 1983 Parliament different?

Post-1979 the SNP went through turmoil and tumult, and swung to the far left, with some people being expelled or whatever. If the SNP had had 7 seats instead of 2, it might have made some differences in the long term as far as SNP leadership is concerned.

[edgbaston]

Could the Thatcher government have shown any more contempt for Scotland than they already did? Perhaps.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Oct 27, 2023 10:31:46 GMT The Bishop said:

Constituency exit polls were a feature of BBC election programmes from 1970-79, despite being fairly accurate overall they seemed to go out of fashion after that.

A closer inspection of the results suggests the 1979 ones and the October 1974 one in stirling, Falkirk and grangemouth weren't that great so perhaps Gravesend 1970 was beginner's luck

[weld]

Gordon Brown becomes an MP in 1979 in this scenario!

[edgbaston]

Oct 27, 2023 12:32:21 GMT weld said:

Gordon Brown becomes an MP in 1979 in this scenario!

For which division?

[greatkingrat]

Oct 27, 2023 17:54:11 GMT edgbaston said:

Oct 27, 2023 12:32:21 GMT weld said:

Gordon Brown becomes an MP in 1979 in this scenario!

For which division?

He stood in Edinburgh South in 1979. If he had been elected in 1979, there is a good chance he would have lost in 1983, so he was probably better off losing in 1979 in the long run.

[Merseymike]

Oct 27, 2023 17:54:11 GMT edgbaston said:

Oct 27, 2023 12:32:21 GMT weld said:

Gordon Brown becomes an MP in 1979 in this scenario!

For which division?

Edinburgh South.
Michael Ancram won in 1979, with a majority of
2,460. I suppose Brown could have won in 1979?

[afleitch]

It's an interesting question actually.

The Tories hadn't fully committed to dumping the Assembly by the 1979 GE. It's manifesto was ambitious. Given thay had breathed life into devolution less than a decade before, it's possible attempts would be made to institute it. Perhaps with a slightly different bill (adding PR for example) and with a further referendum.

The Scots Tories at that time were patrician, not strongly part of the 'New Right'; a case could be made for a greater degrees of exceptionalism.

The SNP aren't left with Gordon Wilson by default; Ewing and Douglas Henderson and Andrew Welsh might remain on the scene to take over. A repeat of 1983 might scalp a few, but there was less of an Alliance uplift in marginal Tory/SNP seats IRL. If the SNP were holding these sorts of seats, they might not suffer losses at all.