Post by John Chanin on Oct 26, 2023 8:51:06 GMT
Lewes is an important old mediaeval town with a castle and priory, and a fine old high street. It sits at a strategic site at the foot of the South Downs where it is cut by the river Ouse - and occasionally flooded by it. It is most famous in modern times for its riotous bonfire night celebrations with their ceremonial burning of effigies of the pope, and these days anyone else they take a dislike to. Socially and politically it is an extension of Brighton - well-educated, middle-class, and with the Greens having taken over representation on Lewes District Council from the Liberal Democrats who long dominated, while the Conservatives get a derisory vote. There is a significant amount of social housing here too, and as the county town of East Sussex there are a lot of public sector workers. However Lewes is not a large town, and accounts for only 13,000 voters, and is unrepresentative of the rest of the constituency.
There are three other urban settlements in the constituency. The largest is Seaford with 19,000 electors, sitting on the coast between the marshy estuary of the Ouse and Cuckmere Haven. This is a poor man’s Eastbourne, its neighbour to the east - without the fine architecture and facilities of that town. It is a low-key and undistinguished seaside resort, and shares Eastbourne’s generally elderly population, and also Eastbourne’s political tendencies, being normally Conservative with a strong Liberal Democrat challenge. There is no social housing to speak of in Seaford and like most coastal towns it is more down market inland, with a lower proportion of managerial workers, and degree holders, although still middle class. On the opposite side of the Ouse estuary is Newhaven, a very different place. This is an old fishing port, from which ferries run to Dieppe in France, and has some industry, as well as being a dormitory for Brighton. This is a working class town, with less owner-occupation, a much higher proportion of routine workers, and a much lower proportion of degree holders. Newhaven’s 9,000 voters form the most down market part of the seat. Politically it is the sort of place that you would expect to have Labour councillors, or at least a Labour challenge, but in the context of Lewes the town is safely Liberal Democrat.
Lastly there is Willingdon and Polegate. These aren’t in Lewes District, and aren’t a separate town. They are suburbs of Eastbourne, part of a continuous urban area, outwith the borough boundaries, and sit uneasily in Wealden District for local government purposes, and in Lewes for parliamentary purposes. The northern area of Polegate was added to this seat in 1997 from the oversized Eastbourne seat, in exchange for the Peacehaven wards of Lewes District which were added to the undersized Brighton Kemptown seat. Willingdon to the south has been moved in from Eastbourne, once again oversized, in the latest boundary review in exchange for villages up in the Weald hived off to the new East Grinstead & Uckfield seat. This strengthens the urban element of the seat - there are now 15,000 voters from the Eastbourne suburbs, more than in Lewes town. As in Seaford the further inland you go, the less up market it becomes, and managerial workers in Polegate are lower than everywhere else in the seat except Newhaven. However the area is solidly owner-occupied reaching 90% in Willingdon where there is no council housing at all. It is difficult to tell how Polegate and Willingdon vote in the parliamentary contests between Conservative and Liberal Democrat as representation at a local level in recent years has been dominated by a family of Chinese descent standing as independents.
The remaining quarter of the seat consists of villages sprawling across the South Downs. This is very attractive countryside, including the large village of Alfriston sitting in the valley of the Cuckmere, the village of Glyndebourne east of Lewes with its famous music festival, and the highest point in the South Downs at Ditchling Beacon. There is an old racecourse up on the Downs, and straddling the boundary with Brighton sits the new AMEX stadium of Brighton FC. The area is also associated with the Bloomsbury Group, with Vanessa Bell’s country house in the village of Firle, south of Lewes. The rural area reaches the sea on the high cliffs between Seaford and Eastbourne, in the oxymoronic South Downs ward of Wealden Council. There is one new addition to the rural area in the boundary changes. The village of Stone Cross, with its 2,800 voters, just outside Eastbourne, and to the east of Polegate, has been added from the Bexhill & Battle seat, and doesn’t sit very happily in either. Stone Cross is essentially a commuter village with demographics very similar to the other addition, Willingdon, and is safely Conservative. The other villages are as you would expect all very well off and middle-class, but there is political variety. The villages surrounding Lewes are not as Conservative as elsewhere. Along the Ouse valley Green influence has spread out from their now stronghold in Lewes town. Kingston ward which covers the area between Lewes and Brighton is solidly Liberal Democrat. The Conservatives fought hard and successfully at the boundary review to keep the two village wards between Lewes and Burgess Hill in the seat, but these also fell to the Liberal Democrats in the 2023 local elections, when there was a complete Conservative wipe-out in the Lewes District part of the seat. The Conservatives do better in the Wealden District villages, both wards, plus Stone Cross, not having the same Liberal Democrat challenge.
These political tendencies, pitting Liberal Democrat Lewes and Newhaven against the Conservative villages, with Seaford and the Eastbourne suburbs contested, make for a highly marginal seat. The seat was won by Norman Baker for the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and he held the seat with increasingly comfortable majorities until disaster overtook the Liberals nationally in 2015. However their vote did not fade away here in the same way as it did in other parts of the country, and this was one of the main Liberal Democrats targets at the 2024 General Election. The boundary changes are hard to assess but probably help the Conservatives. Certainly the villages up on the Weald transferred out would have favoured them, but so probably is the territory moved in, and there is more of it. Nonetheless this small advantage proved of little help as the Liberal Democrats stormed to a huge win, with over 50% of the vote. The new MP is James MacCleary, a local councillor with an amorphous career in business and charity administration.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (76/575 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (364th), social rented 10% (530th).
: White 95%(190th), Black 1%(422nd), South Asian 1%(437th), Mixed 2%(300th), Other 2%(385th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (189th), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (441st)
: Degree level 35%(211th), Minimal qualifications 26%(355th)
: Students 5% (407th), Over 65: 28% (20th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 85% from Lewes, 8% from Eastbourne, 6% from Bexhill & Battle, and 1% from Wealden
88% of the old seat is in the new one, with 12% going to East Grinstead & Uckfield
There are three other urban settlements in the constituency. The largest is Seaford with 19,000 electors, sitting on the coast between the marshy estuary of the Ouse and Cuckmere Haven. This is a poor man’s Eastbourne, its neighbour to the east - without the fine architecture and facilities of that town. It is a low-key and undistinguished seaside resort, and shares Eastbourne’s generally elderly population, and also Eastbourne’s political tendencies, being normally Conservative with a strong Liberal Democrat challenge. There is no social housing to speak of in Seaford and like most coastal towns it is more down market inland, with a lower proportion of managerial workers, and degree holders, although still middle class. On the opposite side of the Ouse estuary is Newhaven, a very different place. This is an old fishing port, from which ferries run to Dieppe in France, and has some industry, as well as being a dormitory for Brighton. This is a working class town, with less owner-occupation, a much higher proportion of routine workers, and a much lower proportion of degree holders. Newhaven’s 9,000 voters form the most down market part of the seat. Politically it is the sort of place that you would expect to have Labour councillors, or at least a Labour challenge, but in the context of Lewes the town is safely Liberal Democrat.
Lastly there is Willingdon and Polegate. These aren’t in Lewes District, and aren’t a separate town. They are suburbs of Eastbourne, part of a continuous urban area, outwith the borough boundaries, and sit uneasily in Wealden District for local government purposes, and in Lewes for parliamentary purposes. The northern area of Polegate was added to this seat in 1997 from the oversized Eastbourne seat, in exchange for the Peacehaven wards of Lewes District which were added to the undersized Brighton Kemptown seat. Willingdon to the south has been moved in from Eastbourne, once again oversized, in the latest boundary review in exchange for villages up in the Weald hived off to the new East Grinstead & Uckfield seat. This strengthens the urban element of the seat - there are now 15,000 voters from the Eastbourne suburbs, more than in Lewes town. As in Seaford the further inland you go, the less up market it becomes, and managerial workers in Polegate are lower than everywhere else in the seat except Newhaven. However the area is solidly owner-occupied reaching 90% in Willingdon where there is no council housing at all. It is difficult to tell how Polegate and Willingdon vote in the parliamentary contests between Conservative and Liberal Democrat as representation at a local level in recent years has been dominated by a family of Chinese descent standing as independents.
The remaining quarter of the seat consists of villages sprawling across the South Downs. This is very attractive countryside, including the large village of Alfriston sitting in the valley of the Cuckmere, the village of Glyndebourne east of Lewes with its famous music festival, and the highest point in the South Downs at Ditchling Beacon. There is an old racecourse up on the Downs, and straddling the boundary with Brighton sits the new AMEX stadium of Brighton FC. The area is also associated with the Bloomsbury Group, with Vanessa Bell’s country house in the village of Firle, south of Lewes. The rural area reaches the sea on the high cliffs between Seaford and Eastbourne, in the oxymoronic South Downs ward of Wealden Council. There is one new addition to the rural area in the boundary changes. The village of Stone Cross, with its 2,800 voters, just outside Eastbourne, and to the east of Polegate, has been added from the Bexhill & Battle seat, and doesn’t sit very happily in either. Stone Cross is essentially a commuter village with demographics very similar to the other addition, Willingdon, and is safely Conservative. The other villages are as you would expect all very well off and middle-class, but there is political variety. The villages surrounding Lewes are not as Conservative as elsewhere. Along the Ouse valley Green influence has spread out from their now stronghold in Lewes town. Kingston ward which covers the area between Lewes and Brighton is solidly Liberal Democrat. The Conservatives fought hard and successfully at the boundary review to keep the two village wards between Lewes and Burgess Hill in the seat, but these also fell to the Liberal Democrats in the 2023 local elections, when there was a complete Conservative wipe-out in the Lewes District part of the seat. The Conservatives do better in the Wealden District villages, both wards, plus Stone Cross, not having the same Liberal Democrat challenge.
These political tendencies, pitting Liberal Democrat Lewes and Newhaven against the Conservative villages, with Seaford and the Eastbourne suburbs contested, make for a highly marginal seat. The seat was won by Norman Baker for the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and he held the seat with increasingly comfortable majorities until disaster overtook the Liberals nationally in 2015. However their vote did not fade away here in the same way as it did in other parts of the country, and this was one of the main Liberal Democrats targets at the 2024 General Election. The boundary changes are hard to assess but probably help the Conservatives. Certainly the villages up on the Weald transferred out would have favoured them, but so probably is the territory moved in, and there is more of it. Nonetheless this small advantage proved of little help as the Liberal Democrats stormed to a huge win, with over 50% of the vote. The new MP is James MacCleary, a local councillor with an amorphous career in business and charity administration.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (76/575 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (364th), social rented 10% (530th).
: White 95%(190th), Black 1%(422nd), South Asian 1%(437th), Mixed 2%(300th), Other 2%(385th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (189th), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (441st)
: Degree level 35%(211th), Minimal qualifications 26%(355th)
: Students 5% (407th), Over 65: 28% (20th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 85% from Lewes, 8% from Eastbourne, 6% from Bexhill & Battle, and 1% from Wealden
88% of the old seat is in the new one, with 12% going to East Grinstead & Uckfield
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Conservative | 26,820 | 49.5 | 26,268 | 47.9 | 26,977 | 48.5 | 14,271 | 26.8 |
| Liberal Democrat | 21,312 | 39.3 | 23,811 | 43.4 | 22,851 | 41.1 | 26,895 | 50.6 |
| Labour | 6,060 | 11.2 | 3,206 | 5.8 | 3,930 | 7.1 | 3,574 | 6.7 |
| Reform | 6.335 | 11.9 | ||||||
| Green | 1,453 | 2.6 | 1,587 | 2.9 | 1,869 | 3.5 | ||
| Other | 113 | 0.2 | 235 | 0.4 | 229 | 0.4 | ||
| Majority | 5,508 | 10.2 | 2,457 | 4.5 | 4,126 | 7.4 | -12,624 | -23.7 |