Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven
Oct 25, 2023 14:22:08 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 3 more like this
Post by John Chanin on Oct 25, 2023 14:22:08 GMT
This seat is east Brighton. Kemptown sits to the east of the deep valley that takes the A23 down to the seafront. Its terraces of small houses climb up the steep hill to Queens Park. This is the traditional working class area of Brighton, but was early colonised by the gay community that is centred here, and there is a leavening of students amongst middle-class professionals these days. Queens Park ward has the highest educational standards in the constituency and the second highest managerial occupations. However Kemptown is a misnomer for the constituency now, as around 40% of it in Hanover ward was transferred to the Pavilion constituency in 1997. A thousand votes in the Elm Park area have come back in the minimal boundary changes but this will make no difference. Along the coast are some grand Georgian terraces - the original Kemp Town - leading to Brighton Marina where the Downs reach the sea. There are modern flat blocks here, and the area is more up market, but does not stretch far from the coast. The Greens have never had the same impact east of the Old Steine, and this area is safely Labour.
Inland of Kemptown are the large grim council estates of Moulescoomb, along the Lewes Road, and Whitehawk, nestled under the Downs below Brighton racecourse. These have very high deprivation scores, and form the heart of the traditional Labour vote in the constituency, although no doubt like similar areas they are less so these days. Nonetheless both the wards that contain them remain solidly Labour. The old Moulscoomb & Bevendean ward though also contains both the campuses of Brighton University, with on site residential accommodation, and a third of people in the ward were students. The original polytechnic is in Bevendean, closer to the city centre, while the original college of education is at Falmer, directly opposite the campus of Sussex University, and just south of Brighton & Hove Albion’s new Amex stadium. The council estate sits incongruously between them. The new Brighton wards came in too late for the Boundary Commission, but have now joined both campuses together, along with council estates on both sides of the Lewes Road, to form what is one of the more curious wards in the country.
Given this you may wonder why this is traditionally a Conservative seat, Labour only in the very best years until recently. This is because on the edge of the city, separated from the main built-up area, are two very different wards, both 70% owner-occupied, compared to just a third in the four inner wards. Out on the Downs is Woodingdean, full of suburban semis, and down on the coast in a valley between two ridges is Rottingdean, the most up market part of Brighton where 50% of households have managerial occupations, and there is a large retired population. Saltdean further east and straddling the city boundary is similar but a bit down market. Both these wards are Conservative, though less so than they used to be, and lost at the disastrous 2023 council elections.
Brighton & Hove is not big enough for three seats on its own, and the Brighton wards account for only three-quarters of this seat. In 1997 in exchange for Hanover ward, the Kemptown seat gained the Peacehaven area further east along the coast, and part of Lewes District Council, which is now to be recognised in the name. This tilted the seat substantially to the Conservatives, the notional 1992 figure for the revised seat showing a 20% Conservative lead compared to the actual 7%. Peacehaven is the Sussex equivalent of the Essex plotlands with higgledy piggledy development of a wide variety of standards. It has low educational qualifications, and as many routine workers as managerial, except for the Telscombe Cliffs area on the Brighton side, which is up market, modern and wholly owner-occupied, with a monument on the high cliffs showing where the Greenwich meridian meets the Channel. As befits its history owner-occupation is high in Peacehaven, with little social housing, but not as high as it used to be. Labour used to have no votes in Peacehaven, but have worked hard since the area was added to Kemptown, and managed to elect councillors in 2 of the wards in 2019, and took a clean sweep of all 4 wards in 2023 - the only Labour councillors in Lewes District.
Despite the unfavourable boundary change Labour won the seat in 1997 on a 14% swing, and held it reasonably comfortably in 2005 before a narrow loss in 2010. They failed to regain it in 2015, but won in 2017 with a swing of nearly 11%, one of the 10 highest in the country, aided by the withdrawal of the Greens. There was little swing back in 2019 as the Conservative vote continues to drop, and the seat is now looking fairly safe. While not as astonishing as in neighbouring Pavilion and Hove, there is no question that social and demographic change here has swung the seat towards Labour fairly continuously over the last 40 years. However the salience of the EU issue probably flatters the Labour performance here in the last 2 elections, with Brighton & Hove voting 69% Remain at the referendum, and closer contests can be expected in future. The suburbs remain half the seat, and are still voting Conservative for the most part. The MP here who won the seat in 2017 is Lloyd Russell-Moyle, a former charity worker, left-winger and junior shadow minister until his recent resignation.
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (477/575 in England & Wales), private rented 26% (103rd), social rented 22% (120th).
: White 87%(336th), Black 2%(222nd), South Asian 2%(302nd), Mixed 4%(120th), Other 5%(162nd)
: Managerial & professional 40% (250th), Routine & Semi-routine 26% (350th)
: Degree level 35%(221st), Minimal qualifications 27%(337th),
: Students 13% (51st), Over 65: 18% (337th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 98% from Brighton Kemptown, and 2% from Brighton Pavilion
100% of the old seat is in the new one
Inland of Kemptown are the large grim council estates of Moulescoomb, along the Lewes Road, and Whitehawk, nestled under the Downs below Brighton racecourse. These have very high deprivation scores, and form the heart of the traditional Labour vote in the constituency, although no doubt like similar areas they are less so these days. Nonetheless both the wards that contain them remain solidly Labour. The old Moulscoomb & Bevendean ward though also contains both the campuses of Brighton University, with on site residential accommodation, and a third of people in the ward were students. The original polytechnic is in Bevendean, closer to the city centre, while the original college of education is at Falmer, directly opposite the campus of Sussex University, and just south of Brighton & Hove Albion’s new Amex stadium. The council estate sits incongruously between them. The new Brighton wards came in too late for the Boundary Commission, but have now joined both campuses together, along with council estates on both sides of the Lewes Road, to form what is one of the more curious wards in the country.
Given this you may wonder why this is traditionally a Conservative seat, Labour only in the very best years until recently. This is because on the edge of the city, separated from the main built-up area, are two very different wards, both 70% owner-occupied, compared to just a third in the four inner wards. Out on the Downs is Woodingdean, full of suburban semis, and down on the coast in a valley between two ridges is Rottingdean, the most up market part of Brighton where 50% of households have managerial occupations, and there is a large retired population. Saltdean further east and straddling the city boundary is similar but a bit down market. Both these wards are Conservative, though less so than they used to be, and lost at the disastrous 2023 council elections.
Brighton & Hove is not big enough for three seats on its own, and the Brighton wards account for only three-quarters of this seat. In 1997 in exchange for Hanover ward, the Kemptown seat gained the Peacehaven area further east along the coast, and part of Lewes District Council, which is now to be recognised in the name. This tilted the seat substantially to the Conservatives, the notional 1992 figure for the revised seat showing a 20% Conservative lead compared to the actual 7%. Peacehaven is the Sussex equivalent of the Essex plotlands with higgledy piggledy development of a wide variety of standards. It has low educational qualifications, and as many routine workers as managerial, except for the Telscombe Cliffs area on the Brighton side, which is up market, modern and wholly owner-occupied, with a monument on the high cliffs showing where the Greenwich meridian meets the Channel. As befits its history owner-occupation is high in Peacehaven, with little social housing, but not as high as it used to be. Labour used to have no votes in Peacehaven, but have worked hard since the area was added to Kemptown, and managed to elect councillors in 2 of the wards in 2019, and took a clean sweep of all 4 wards in 2023 - the only Labour councillors in Lewes District.
Despite the unfavourable boundary change Labour won the seat in 1997 on a 14% swing, and held it reasonably comfortably in 2005 before a narrow loss in 2010. They failed to regain it in 2015, but won in 2017 with a swing of nearly 11%, one of the 10 highest in the country, aided by the withdrawal of the Greens. There was little swing back in 2019 as the Conservative vote continues to drop, and the seat is now looking fairly safe. While not as astonishing as in neighbouring Pavilion and Hove, there is no question that social and demographic change here has swung the seat towards Labour fairly continuously over the last 40 years. However the salience of the EU issue probably flatters the Labour performance here in the last 2 elections, with Brighton & Hove voting 69% Remain at the referendum, and closer contests can be expected in future. The suburbs remain half the seat, and are still voting Conservative for the most part. The MP here who won the seat in 2017 is Lloyd Russell-Moyle, a former charity worker, left-winger and junior shadow minister until his recent resignation.
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (477/575 in England & Wales), private rented 26% (103rd), social rented 22% (120th).
: White 87%(336th), Black 2%(222nd), South Asian 2%(302nd), Mixed 4%(120th), Other 5%(162nd)
: Managerial & professional 40% (250th), Routine & Semi-routine 26% (350th)
: Degree level 35%(221st), Minimal qualifications 27%(337th),
: Students 13% (51st), Over 65: 18% (337th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 98% from Brighton Kemptown, and 2% from Brighton Pavilion
100% of the old seat is in the new one
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Labour | 28,703 | 58.3 | 25,033 | 51.6 | 25,299 | 51.2 |
Conservative | 18,835 | 38.3 | 16,972 | 35.0 | 17,019 | 34.4 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,457 | 3.0 | 2,964 | 6.1 | 2,964 | 6.0 |
Brexit | 1,327 | 2.7 | 1,335 | 2.7 | ||
Green | 2,237 | 4.6 | 2,813 | 5.7 | ||
Other | 212 | 0.4 | ||||
| Majority | 9,868 | 20.1 | 8,061 | 16.6 | 8,280 | 16.8 |