Post by andrewp on Oct 25, 2023 12:33:37 GMT
Monmouth ( which gains its Shire in these boundary changes) is the most South Easterly constituency in Wales, and includes the points on the M4 and M48 through which most travellers to South Wales cross the border into the principality. This is arguably the most ‘English’ of all Welsh constituencies- indeed there was a long dispute as to whether Monmouthshire was in England or Wales. This English tinge is reflected by the fact that Plaid Cymru, the Party of Wales, have never achieved more than 3.9% of the vote in a general election here in 15 attempts.
This constituency borders the eastern most South Wales Valley constituencies but this area of gently rolling hills could barely be more different to its neighbours. This lush countryside has become popular with commuters to Bristol, as well as Cardiff, in the last few decades and particularly since the 2nd severn crossing was built, people have been attracted by the lower house prices in this part of the world compared to Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset. Fully 33% of residents here were born in England. The constituency has some of the demographics that might indicate that were it in England, this might be a very safe Conservative seat. The constituency is 96.9% white and has quite an old age profile being in the top 50 constituencies in England and Wales for both the 50-64 and over 65 age groups and is in the bottom 100 constituencies for all age categories under 50. It is 72.3% owner occupied and has a relatively high percentage of people who work in managerial positions, higher than say the Weald of Kent or Skipton and Ripon.
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Monmouth itself ( population 11000) is actually the 3rd largest town in this constituency. Both Abergavenny and Chepstow are slightly larger.
Chepstow probably contains Labour’s strongest part of the constituency. It’s a classic border town situated right in the South East corner of the constituency on the River Wye, with an imposing castle looking down on the river. It is also home to a racecourse on which the Welsh Grand National is run. In the 2022 local elections the town split between its northern and western divisions- Mount Pleasant and St Kingsmark, which contains the racecourse, electing Conservative councillors and its central and southern divisions- Chepstow Castle and Bulwark, a largely local authority housing estate, electing Labour councillors.
In the North West corner of the constituency we find the comfortable pretty market town of Abergavenny. Abargavenny is only 4 miles away from Blaenavon at the top of the Welsh valleys but is a much further distance away economically and politically. There is some Labour strength here though, with the central wards of Park, Lansdown and Croesonen being safe divisions for that party. The Conservatives fight back in Penyfai to the South of the town centre and Mardy to the north. In 2022 the town elected 5 Labour councillors to 2 Conservatives
Monmouth itself lies in the North Eastern corner of the constituency and is the most Conservative of the 3 largest towns. It too has a castle built in Norman times. In good years for that party, like 2017, Monmouth town elects a full slate of Conservative councillors. Although in 2022 Labour won 3 divisions to the Conservatives 1 in Monmouth, with the Conservatives only winning the affluent Osbaston to the north of the town.
Boundary changes have been relatively rare here, with the current boundaries having come into force in 1983 and the constituency having been left unchanged in the last 2 boundary reviews. This is far from the smallest constituency in Wales but with an electorate of just over 67000 at the time of the Boundary review of the 2019-24 parliament it is still below the minimum for a parliamentary constituency. Short of crossing the River Wye and creating a cross nation constituency, the position of Monmouth in the corner of Wales was always likely to lead to changes here being less radical than elsewhere.
The boundary changes that will come into force in 2024 almost reverse the changes that were made in 1983 and mean that the constituency will be coterminous with the Monmouthshire council area. About 8000 voters in the communities of Croesyceiliog and LLanyrafon from Torfaen district and situated on the edge of Cwmbran are lost. This is a more affluent area than most of Cwmbran. They are replaced by 13500 electors from Newport East from the communities of Caldicot, Magor and Rogiet, small towns to the south of the m4 on the way to Newport, who have all spent 41 years in Newport East. Both the areas departing and arriving are better than average for the Labour Party in this constituency. In the 8 wards arriving from Newport East, Labour won 7 in the 2022 local elections, a good year for the party in Monmouthshire, and Labour also won all 4 of the wards departing to Torfaen. These changes, therefore, do not drastically affect the political balance greatly but the fact that 5500 more voters are gained than lost,does give Labour a slight advantage from these changes.
The 4 areas described so far - the 3 towns and the new territory gained - are probably quite close between the Conservatives and Labour at general elections. The Conservatives really build their majority in the rural centre of the seat. Affluent large villages and small towns like Usk and Raglan are as Conservative territory as can be found anywhere in Wales. The eastern border follows the picturesque Wye Valley as its winds it way through gorges, passing the 12th century Tintern Abbey.
Overall this adds up to a seat that is Conservative leaning. If this were in England, it would quite probably have a much larger Conservative majority, but this is still Wales- Labour can win Monmouth. They have won it four times. In their three landslide elections of 1966, 1997 and 2001 and in a 1991 by election caused by the death of Conservative MP Sir John Stradling Thomas. In 1997, Huw Edwards ( no, not that one) gained the seat for Labour by 4000 votes and narrowly held on by 384 in 2001. In 2005 he was defeated by current Conservative MP and Secretary of State for Wales David Davies, one of three Conservative victories in Wales that year following the 2 wipeouts in 1997 and 2001. This is also the only constituency in Wales that has always been won by the Conservative party in Senedd elections. Following his initial win in 2005, Davies has won 4 further times with solid majorities. In 2019, Davies share actually went down 1% but Labour went down 4%.
This is a seat that has historically seen relatively low swings- in 1997 the swing to Labour was a relatively low 7.4%, although this may have been influenced by a further unwind from the 1991 by election. The Conservative majorities since 2010 have been relatively steady- 22%, 23%, 17% and then 20% in 2019. One fancies this may be a slightly more difficult nut to crack for Labour than some Conservative seats in England that are currently safer on paper, although will almost certainly fall in landslide conditions. The 2019 Conservative majority of 9,982 will be reduced slightly by the boundary changes but this is probably still the second safest Conservative seat in Wales and will be one of the last 3 to fall alongside Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.
This constituency borders the eastern most South Wales Valley constituencies but this area of gently rolling hills could barely be more different to its neighbours. This lush countryside has become popular with commuters to Bristol, as well as Cardiff, in the last few decades and particularly since the 2nd severn crossing was built, people have been attracted by the lower house prices in this part of the world compared to Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset. Fully 33% of residents here were born in England. The constituency has some of the demographics that might indicate that were it in England, this might be a very safe Conservative seat. The constituency is 96.9% white and has quite an old age profile being in the top 50 constituencies in England and Wales for both the 50-64 and over 65 age groups and is in the bottom 100 constituencies for all age categories under 50. It is 72.3% owner occupied and has a relatively high percentage of people who work in managerial positions, higher than say the Weald of Kent or Skipton and Ripon.
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Monmouth itself ( population 11000) is actually the 3rd largest town in this constituency. Both Abergavenny and Chepstow are slightly larger.
Chepstow probably contains Labour’s strongest part of the constituency. It’s a classic border town situated right in the South East corner of the constituency on the River Wye, with an imposing castle looking down on the river. It is also home to a racecourse on which the Welsh Grand National is run. In the 2022 local elections the town split between its northern and western divisions- Mount Pleasant and St Kingsmark, which contains the racecourse, electing Conservative councillors and its central and southern divisions- Chepstow Castle and Bulwark, a largely local authority housing estate, electing Labour councillors.
In the North West corner of the constituency we find the comfortable pretty market town of Abergavenny. Abargavenny is only 4 miles away from Blaenavon at the top of the Welsh valleys but is a much further distance away economically and politically. There is some Labour strength here though, with the central wards of Park, Lansdown and Croesonen being safe divisions for that party. The Conservatives fight back in Penyfai to the South of the town centre and Mardy to the north. In 2022 the town elected 5 Labour councillors to 2 Conservatives
Monmouth itself lies in the North Eastern corner of the constituency and is the most Conservative of the 3 largest towns. It too has a castle built in Norman times. In good years for that party, like 2017, Monmouth town elects a full slate of Conservative councillors. Although in 2022 Labour won 3 divisions to the Conservatives 1 in Monmouth, with the Conservatives only winning the affluent Osbaston to the north of the town.
Boundary changes have been relatively rare here, with the current boundaries having come into force in 1983 and the constituency having been left unchanged in the last 2 boundary reviews. This is far from the smallest constituency in Wales but with an electorate of just over 67000 at the time of the Boundary review of the 2019-24 parliament it is still below the minimum for a parliamentary constituency. Short of crossing the River Wye and creating a cross nation constituency, the position of Monmouth in the corner of Wales was always likely to lead to changes here being less radical than elsewhere.
The boundary changes that will come into force in 2024 almost reverse the changes that were made in 1983 and mean that the constituency will be coterminous with the Monmouthshire council area. About 8000 voters in the communities of Croesyceiliog and LLanyrafon from Torfaen district and situated on the edge of Cwmbran are lost. This is a more affluent area than most of Cwmbran. They are replaced by 13500 electors from Newport East from the communities of Caldicot, Magor and Rogiet, small towns to the south of the m4 on the way to Newport, who have all spent 41 years in Newport East. Both the areas departing and arriving are better than average for the Labour Party in this constituency. In the 8 wards arriving from Newport East, Labour won 7 in the 2022 local elections, a good year for the party in Monmouthshire, and Labour also won all 4 of the wards departing to Torfaen. These changes, therefore, do not drastically affect the political balance greatly but the fact that 5500 more voters are gained than lost,does give Labour a slight advantage from these changes.
The 4 areas described so far - the 3 towns and the new territory gained - are probably quite close between the Conservatives and Labour at general elections. The Conservatives really build their majority in the rural centre of the seat. Affluent large villages and small towns like Usk and Raglan are as Conservative territory as can be found anywhere in Wales. The eastern border follows the picturesque Wye Valley as its winds it way through gorges, passing the 12th century Tintern Abbey.
Overall this adds up to a seat that is Conservative leaning. If this were in England, it would quite probably have a much larger Conservative majority, but this is still Wales- Labour can win Monmouth. They have won it four times. In their three landslide elections of 1966, 1997 and 2001 and in a 1991 by election caused by the death of Conservative MP Sir John Stradling Thomas. In 1997, Huw Edwards ( no, not that one) gained the seat for Labour by 4000 votes and narrowly held on by 384 in 2001. In 2005 he was defeated by current Conservative MP and Secretary of State for Wales David Davies, one of three Conservative victories in Wales that year following the 2 wipeouts in 1997 and 2001. This is also the only constituency in Wales that has always been won by the Conservative party in Senedd elections. Following his initial win in 2005, Davies has won 4 further times with solid majorities. In 2019, Davies share actually went down 1% but Labour went down 4%.
This is a seat that has historically seen relatively low swings- in 1997 the swing to Labour was a relatively low 7.4%, although this may have been influenced by a further unwind from the 1991 by election. The Conservative majorities since 2010 have been relatively steady- 22%, 23%, 17% and then 20% in 2019. One fancies this may be a slightly more difficult nut to crack for Labour than some Conservative seats in England that are currently safer on paper, although will almost certainly fall in landslide conditions. The 2019 Conservative majority of 9,982 will be reduced slightly by the boundary changes but this is probably still the second safest Conservative seat in Wales and will be one of the last 3 to fall alongside Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.
