Post by John Chanin on Oct 25, 2023 10:03:35 GMT
This seat is central Brighton, covering the resort area with its hotels and restaurants and pier, the Brighton Centre where party conferences are held, the ludicrous i360 tower along the coast, the main shopping centre along Western Road, and the grand street leading from the central clocktower up to Brighton’s palatial station. Down in the valley on the eastern edge of the seat alongside the A23 is the indianate folly of the Royal Pavilion, after which the constituency is quaintly named. But the majority of the constituency inland is much less exotic, and has considerable variety.
This seat is one of the best examples of major social and demographic change with a unique recent political history. Even in 1966 this was a safe Conservative constituency. Julian Amery had 70% of the vote on winning the 1969 by-election and had majorities of around 10,000 in the 1980s. But inexorably the majorities reduced thereafter. Labour were boosted a little by the addition of Hanover ward from Kemptown in 1997, and sure enough the seat fell then to Labour, becoming for the first time better for them than Kemptown. It looked safe in 2001, but the Greens made a big advance in 2005, and with the unpopularity of the Labour government fell narrowly to Caroline Lucas on a low share of the vote in 2010. Subsequently she has made it into a safe seat, aided by Liberal Democrat withdrawal, and this is not entirely a personal vote as the Greens have considerable local strength in the constituency. Locally there have been big swings between them and Labour, with the Greens winning overwhelmingly in 2011 and 2019, and going on to lead the council, and then Labour coming back strongly in 2015 and 2023 after the council became unpopular.
Originally the resort area with its hotels and small businesses was very Conservative as similar places elsewhere in the country, but the Regency ward which covers the coast and the boutique shops and restaurants of the Lanes, and the West Hill & North Laine ward that covers the city centre, are now the core of the Green vote in the city (although even here Labour picked up one councillor in 2023). Over half the households in this area rent privately, and there are significant number of students, particularly in the terraces of small houses around the station. Inland is Preston Park, with Brighton’s second station on the fast railways into London with high levels of commuters in semi-detached houses. But this area has changed too. It may have the highest level of managerial workers and degree holders in the city (close to 60% in both cases), but private renting is also high, as is Green voting, and this area above all deserves the familiar accolade of “London by the sea”. Hanover & Elm Grove ward is really part of Kemptown, and along with Queens Park to the south (in Kemptown) is the core of the gay community for which Brighton is famous. There are many students here too in Elm Grove, close to the main campus of Brighton University. In the only boundary change the Commission has chipped 1000 voters off this ward to bring Kemptown up to minimum size. In this central area which includes the new Round Hill ward the Conservative vote has entirely eroded away.
The outer part of the constituency is rather different. Climbing up the slope of the South Downs to the hillfort of Hollingbury Castle is the Hollingdean area, very similar to Preston Park. North-east alongside the A27 road to Lewes sits isolated Coldean, the only substantial area of council housing in the constituency, and on the city boundary the large campus of Sussex University at Stanmer where there is much student housing on site. This is directly opposite the equally large Falmer campus of Brighton university (in Kemptown constituency), and there can’t be many places in the country where two universities sit side by side, or indeed where a small city like Brighton has two big universities. Students form a full 40% of the electorate here, and this ward is also a Green/Labour marginal. Patcham and Hollingbury to the north-west however remain more traditional owner-occupied suburbs with an older population, and a strong Conservative vote.
In summary, as the statistics below show the seat comes in the top 50 for both managerial occupations and educational qualifications, but also 31st for private renting - a demography similar to parts of London, although there are less council tenants and more students, as both universities have expanded massively over the last 20 years. Alongside this, the constituency is one of the youngest in Britain, rather different from other south coast towns. The MP since 2010 was Caroline Lucas, a former charity worker, who was the lead figure in the Green Party, and their representative in the European Parliament, before her election here. It was speculated that she had a considerable personal vote, and after she announced her retirement the Greens nominated Sian Berry, another former leader and London Assembly member as her replacement. With no previous connection with the constituency, and Labour riding high in the polls, it was thought that a close election would be likely. And indeed Labour did close a bit, but Berry still won very comfortably..
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (478/575 in England & Wales), private rented 36% (31st), social rented 11% (461st).
: White 85%(359th), Black 2%(240th), South Asian 2%(313th), Mixed 5%(65th), Other 6%(139th)
: Managerial & professional 52% (46th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (528th)
: Degree level 48%(48th), Minimal qualifications 15%(565th)
: Students 20% (24th), Over 65 12% (516th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Brighton Pavilion
99% of the old seat is in the new one, with 1% going to Brighton Kemptown
This seat is one of the best examples of major social and demographic change with a unique recent political history. Even in 1966 this was a safe Conservative constituency. Julian Amery had 70% of the vote on winning the 1969 by-election and had majorities of around 10,000 in the 1980s. But inexorably the majorities reduced thereafter. Labour were boosted a little by the addition of Hanover ward from Kemptown in 1997, and sure enough the seat fell then to Labour, becoming for the first time better for them than Kemptown. It looked safe in 2001, but the Greens made a big advance in 2005, and with the unpopularity of the Labour government fell narrowly to Caroline Lucas on a low share of the vote in 2010. Subsequently she has made it into a safe seat, aided by Liberal Democrat withdrawal, and this is not entirely a personal vote as the Greens have considerable local strength in the constituency. Locally there have been big swings between them and Labour, with the Greens winning overwhelmingly in 2011 and 2019, and going on to lead the council, and then Labour coming back strongly in 2015 and 2023 after the council became unpopular.
Originally the resort area with its hotels and small businesses was very Conservative as similar places elsewhere in the country, but the Regency ward which covers the coast and the boutique shops and restaurants of the Lanes, and the West Hill & North Laine ward that covers the city centre, are now the core of the Green vote in the city (although even here Labour picked up one councillor in 2023). Over half the households in this area rent privately, and there are significant number of students, particularly in the terraces of small houses around the station. Inland is Preston Park, with Brighton’s second station on the fast railways into London with high levels of commuters in semi-detached houses. But this area has changed too. It may have the highest level of managerial workers and degree holders in the city (close to 60% in both cases), but private renting is also high, as is Green voting, and this area above all deserves the familiar accolade of “London by the sea”. Hanover & Elm Grove ward is really part of Kemptown, and along with Queens Park to the south (in Kemptown) is the core of the gay community for which Brighton is famous. There are many students here too in Elm Grove, close to the main campus of Brighton University. In the only boundary change the Commission has chipped 1000 voters off this ward to bring Kemptown up to minimum size. In this central area which includes the new Round Hill ward the Conservative vote has entirely eroded away.
The outer part of the constituency is rather different. Climbing up the slope of the South Downs to the hillfort of Hollingbury Castle is the Hollingdean area, very similar to Preston Park. North-east alongside the A27 road to Lewes sits isolated Coldean, the only substantial area of council housing in the constituency, and on the city boundary the large campus of Sussex University at Stanmer where there is much student housing on site. This is directly opposite the equally large Falmer campus of Brighton university (in Kemptown constituency), and there can’t be many places in the country where two universities sit side by side, or indeed where a small city like Brighton has two big universities. Students form a full 40% of the electorate here, and this ward is also a Green/Labour marginal. Patcham and Hollingbury to the north-west however remain more traditional owner-occupied suburbs with an older population, and a strong Conservative vote.
In summary, as the statistics below show the seat comes in the top 50 for both managerial occupations and educational qualifications, but also 31st for private renting - a demography similar to parts of London, although there are less council tenants and more students, as both universities have expanded massively over the last 20 years. Alongside this, the constituency is one of the youngest in Britain, rather different from other south coast towns. The MP since 2010 was Caroline Lucas, a former charity worker, who was the lead figure in the Green Party, and their representative in the European Parliament, before her election here. It was speculated that she had a considerable personal vote, and after she announced her retirement the Greens nominated Sian Berry, another former leader and London Assembly member as her replacement. With no previous connection with the constituency, and Labour riding high in the polls, it was thought that a close election would be likely. And indeed Labour did close a bit, but Berry still won very comfortably..
Census data: Owner-occupied 53% (478/575 in England & Wales), private rented 36% (31st), social rented 11% (461st).
: White 85%(359th), Black 2%(240th), South Asian 2%(313th), Mixed 5%(65th), Other 6%(139th)
: Managerial & professional 52% (46th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (528th)
: Degree level 48%(48th), Minimal qualifications 15%(565th)
: Students 20% (24th), Over 65 12% (516th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Brighton Pavilion
99% of the old seat is in the new one, with 1% going to Brighton Kemptown
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Green | 30,139 | 52.3 | 33,151 | 57.2 | 32,575 | 57.1 | 28,809 | 55.0 |
| Labour | 15,450 | 26.8 | 13,211 | 22.8 | 12,945 | 22.7 | 14,519 | 27.7 |
| Conservative | 11,082 | 19.2 | 10,176 | 17.5 | 10,129 | 17.7 | 3,975 | 7.6 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,604 | 3.1 | ||||||
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 630 | 1.1 | 770 | 1.3 | 762 | 1.3 | 2,836 | 5.4 |
| Other | 376 | 0.7 | 690 | 1.2 | 690 | 1.2 | 620 | 1.2 |
| Majority | 14,689 | 25.5 | 19,940 | 34.4 | 19,630 | 34.4 | 14,290 | 27.3 |
