Post by John Chanin on Oct 25, 2023 6:48:20 GMT
This is the western seat in the city of Brighton & Hove. Formerly Hove was an independent council prior to its merger with Brighton in 1996. Reputationally while Brighton was raffish, Hove was the stolid residential area. However the distinction was always overdone - there was never any logic to the boundary that cut through the middle of the city, and in truth not so much difference on the ground. Hove was however even safer for the Conservatives in the 1970s and 1980s, with majorities of over 15,000 and the Liberal Democrats in second place until 1992, when the majority was still over 10,000. Hove since then is a classic example of both demographic and political change.
Conservative success was based on a settled middle-class population, with many retirees as in other south coast towns. The resort area of Brighton continues along the coast to the west passed the derelict West Pier, with grand Georgian squares opening out onto the seafront, but is quieter. West of the King Alfred swimming pool and leisure centre it becomes solidly residential. The south coast railway line runs through the middle of the seat with three stations, and while there are direct trains to London, they are slower than those from Brighton, and there are many less commuters here. The old A27 forms a rather down market corridor just north of the railway, where the old Brighton football ground sat (now redeveloped), and Hove dog track still does. North of the road large semi-detached houses stretch back into the foothills of the Downs. The seat has many less students than Pavilion, but the larger cheaper housing has led to a spillover of professionals from Brighton. The other great transformation has been in the age of the population. From a seat with a high level of retirees, Hove now has less people over 65 than average.
The seat can roughly be divided into three parts. The inner three wards are a continuation of Brighton Pavilion - very high levels of private renting around 50%, but over 50% in managerial occupations, and close to 50% with degrees. They also share its politics, Brunswick & Adelaide, and Goldsmid normally returning Greens to the city council , and Central Hove being more transitional is marginal. The county cricket ground is here in Goldsmid ward, close to Hove station. However the Greens were wiped out in Hove in the 2023 local elections, when the travails of the council led to a strong swing to Labour. The three central wards - Westbourne & Wish along the coast and Hove Park inland are just as high in managerial occupations, but a little older and less well qualified, and many more owner occupiers, particularly in Hove Park where they reach 80%, and this is the safest, and now the only, Conservative held ward in the constituency, although the two coastal wards remain competitive. The three western wards are notably more working class with less than 40% in managerial occupations and less than a third with degrees, but still middle-class by any normal standards. Hove’s council housing is concentrated in Hangleton out by the ring road, where it coexists with modern owner-occupied estates. There is also quite a bit of council housing in Portslade - a more industrial area stretching north from Shoreham harbour, with many smaller terraced houses. Portslade was traditionally the only Labour part of the seat, and remains so, while Hangleton is normally Conservative as the owner-occupiers outweigh the council tenants. Curiously the Boundary Commission has added Portslade to the seat’s name, despite it being completely unchanged, although it has always been an integral part of Hove, albeit with a different feel to it. In fact the seat has now been unchanged since its creation in 1950, and it is the only non-insular constituency in the country with such a long history of continuity.
At a parliamentary level the two key years were 1997 and 2017. In the former Labour achieved a swing of over 16% - the 22nd highest in the country, enabling them to overcome a 12,000 majority to comfortably win the seat. In 2005 Labour clung on by 420 votes, before the Conservatives regained the seat in 2010, with a smaller than average swing. In 2015 Labour won its only seat in the south of England here, while narrowly failing in Kemptown. Then in 2017 an extraordianry 15% swing, second only to Bristol West in the whole country, has turned the seat into apparently safe Labour, a view reinforced by the small swing back to the Conservatives in 2019, whose share of the vote continues to decline. Perhaps even more than neighbouring Pavilion this is one of the most astonishing political transformations in the country, comparable in the opposite direction to seats like North Warwickshire. In my original profile I predicted that the Green vote would rise, given their local strength, and the fact that a Conservative victory is no longer in consideration. And indeed this is what we saw in 2024, as they moved into second place. But Labour increased their majority, despite a reduced share of the vote, as the opposition was split in all directions. The MP here who won the seat in 2015 is Peter Kyle, former charity worker, and now a cabinet minister in the new government.
Census data: Owner-occupied 56% (453/575 in England & Wales), private rented 33% (46th), social rented 11% (477th).
: White 86%(350th), Black 2%(275th), South Asian 2%(301st), Mixed 5%(86th), Other 6%(133rd)
: Managerial & professional 49% (79th), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (504th)
: Degree level 47%(52nd), Minimal qualifications 20%(520th)
: Students 7% (203rd), Over 65: 15% (436th)
Boundaries : The seat is unchanged
Conservative success was based on a settled middle-class population, with many retirees as in other south coast towns. The resort area of Brighton continues along the coast to the west passed the derelict West Pier, with grand Georgian squares opening out onto the seafront, but is quieter. West of the King Alfred swimming pool and leisure centre it becomes solidly residential. The south coast railway line runs through the middle of the seat with three stations, and while there are direct trains to London, they are slower than those from Brighton, and there are many less commuters here. The old A27 forms a rather down market corridor just north of the railway, where the old Brighton football ground sat (now redeveloped), and Hove dog track still does. North of the road large semi-detached houses stretch back into the foothills of the Downs. The seat has many less students than Pavilion, but the larger cheaper housing has led to a spillover of professionals from Brighton. The other great transformation has been in the age of the population. From a seat with a high level of retirees, Hove now has less people over 65 than average.
The seat can roughly be divided into three parts. The inner three wards are a continuation of Brighton Pavilion - very high levels of private renting around 50%, but over 50% in managerial occupations, and close to 50% with degrees. They also share its politics, Brunswick & Adelaide, and Goldsmid normally returning Greens to the city council , and Central Hove being more transitional is marginal. The county cricket ground is here in Goldsmid ward, close to Hove station. However the Greens were wiped out in Hove in the 2023 local elections, when the travails of the council led to a strong swing to Labour. The three central wards - Westbourne & Wish along the coast and Hove Park inland are just as high in managerial occupations, but a little older and less well qualified, and many more owner occupiers, particularly in Hove Park where they reach 80%, and this is the safest, and now the only, Conservative held ward in the constituency, although the two coastal wards remain competitive. The three western wards are notably more working class with less than 40% in managerial occupations and less than a third with degrees, but still middle-class by any normal standards. Hove’s council housing is concentrated in Hangleton out by the ring road, where it coexists with modern owner-occupied estates. There is also quite a bit of council housing in Portslade - a more industrial area stretching north from Shoreham harbour, with many smaller terraced houses. Portslade was traditionally the only Labour part of the seat, and remains so, while Hangleton is normally Conservative as the owner-occupiers outweigh the council tenants. Curiously the Boundary Commission has added Portslade to the seat’s name, despite it being completely unchanged, although it has always been an integral part of Hove, albeit with a different feel to it. In fact the seat has now been unchanged since its creation in 1950, and it is the only non-insular constituency in the country with such a long history of continuity.
At a parliamentary level the two key years were 1997 and 2017. In the former Labour achieved a swing of over 16% - the 22nd highest in the country, enabling them to overcome a 12,000 majority to comfortably win the seat. In 2005 Labour clung on by 420 votes, before the Conservatives regained the seat in 2010, with a smaller than average swing. In 2015 Labour won its only seat in the south of England here, while narrowly failing in Kemptown. Then in 2017 an extraordianry 15% swing, second only to Bristol West in the whole country, has turned the seat into apparently safe Labour, a view reinforced by the small swing back to the Conservatives in 2019, whose share of the vote continues to decline. Perhaps even more than neighbouring Pavilion this is one of the most astonishing political transformations in the country, comparable in the opposite direction to seats like North Warwickshire. In my original profile I predicted that the Green vote would rise, given their local strength, and the fact that a Conservative victory is no longer in consideration. And indeed this is what we saw in 2024, as they moved into second place. But Labour increased their majority, despite a reduced share of the vote, as the opposition was split in all directions. The MP here who won the seat in 2015 is Peter Kyle, former charity worker, and now a cabinet minister in the new government.
Census data: Owner-occupied 56% (453/575 in England & Wales), private rented 33% (46th), social rented 11% (477th).
: White 86%(350th), Black 2%(275th), South Asian 2%(301st), Mixed 5%(86th), Other 6%(133rd)
: Managerial & professional 49% (79th), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (504th)
: Degree level 47%(52nd), Minimal qualifications 20%(520th)
: Students 7% (203rd), Over 65: 15% (436th)
Boundaries : The seat is unchanged
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 36,942 | 64.1 | 32,876 | 58.3 | 27,209 | 52.4 |
| Conservative | 18,185 | 31.6 | 15,832 | 28.1 | 6,630 | 12.8 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,311 | 2.3 | 3,731 | 6.6 | 3,046 | 5.9 |
| Brexit/Reform | 1,111 | 2.0 | 4,558 | 8.8 | ||
| Green | 971 | 1.7 | 2,496 | 4.4 | 7,418 | 14.3 |
| Other | 187 | 0.3 | 345 | 0.6 | 3,048 | 5.9 |
| Majority | 18,757 | 32.6 | 17,044 | 30.2 | 19,791 | 38.1 |
