Post by Robert Waller on Oct 21, 2023 13:18:32 GMT
Bangor Aberconwy consists of the whole of the Aberconwy constituency plus the northern 41% of the abolished Arfon, one of the victims of the cull of Welsh seats in the review that reported in 2023, and reduced the principality’s representation from 40 to 32.
Both contributing divisions were heavily undersized in terms of electorate. Aberconwy had fewer than 45,000 voters at the time of the December 2019 general election, and Arfon just over 42,000. The justification in both cases was not merely the long-standing guarantee of a minimum number of Westminster seats for Wales, that resulted in a significantly lower electorate quota compared with the other three parts of the UK. They also were favoured on grounds of rugged and difficult terrain, so had even fewer voters than average, even for Wales. Aberconwy, although its population was mainly concentrated on the north Wales coast, extended south into the mountains, such as Glyder Fach (994 metres), around Betws-y-Coed and Capel Curig (known as the wettest place in Wales, which is saying something). Arfon went further – or rather higher – in that regard, including within its boundaries the loftiest of all, Yr Wyddfa (Snowdon).
However, the ‘2023 review’ ended these privileges, and Bangor Aberconwy was constituted with an initial electorate count of 70,438, which is only 4% below the UK quota set for the review (73,393) and thus within the acceptable 5% tolerance. It has lost some of the most mountainous section, as the very heart of Snowdonia including the highest part has been placed in Dwyfor Meifironydd, which has also taken the other 59% of Arfon’s voters. On the other hand, Bangor Aberconwy also includes 14% of the former Clywd West, and this is essentially its rural and hilly south western quadrant, not its Anglicised coast - as may be demonstrated from its ward names and electorates: from Conwy borough: Betws yn Rhos (1,623), Llangernyw (1,104), Llansannan (1,495) and Uwchaled (1,139); and from Denbighshire Efenechtyd (1,321) and Llanrhaeadr-Yng-Nghinmeirch (1,496).
These are clearly not typical parts of the usually Conservative Clwyd West, but politically the main sections of Bangor Aberconwy come from two constituencies with very different electoral traditions. Essentially Aberconwy was a marginal Tory seat with a strong Labour challenge while Arfon had always been won by Plaid Cymru, but also with Labour close behind.
Taking Aberconwy first, since its creation in 2010 (also Arfon’s first contest) it has been a classic Conservative/Labour marginal, though the Tories have won on each of the four occasions, with a majority ranging from a high of 13.3% in 2015 to a low of 2% (in 2017). In 2019 a new candidate, Robin Millar took over from Guto Bebb, one of the victims of the ‘Brexit’ whip removal in September 2019, and held on by 6.4% or a majority of 2,034.
Despite the acreage of the inland section, Aberconwy was dominated by the coastal strip from Llanfairfechan through the seaide resort Penmaenmawr and dramatically castellated Conwy (the name of a similar constituency before 2010) to the largest town by far, Llandudno (2021 population just under 20,000), ending in the east at Penrhyn Bay. The current internal political makeup of the larger, Aberconwy, element of the new constutuency is clouded both by a large number of strong Independent candidatures (they returned 22 of the 55 councillors in the most recent Conwy county borough elections, in May 2022) and local government boundary changes which meant that this contests were not on the same electoral divisions as used by the Commission. However, it is clear that Labour are competitive in most of the urban units. In 2022 they took the top spot in the elections in Penmaenmawr, the Pandy division of eastern Llanfairfechan, Conwy itself, and the Gogarth Mostyn division of Llandudno – which is the one covering the dominant physical feature of St Ormes Head, as well as Tudno, which covers the south Llandudno neighbourhoods where most if its social rented housing is to be found. Labour too one of the seats too in the Llandudno Junction area (Glyn y Mark division). In most of these cases the representation was shared with Independents, not another party, but not all.
The Conservatives do best in the more middle class and owner occupied urban neighbourhoods, such as Craig-y-Don in Llandudno itself and Deganwy on the way from there to Llandudno Junction. They took two of the three seats in Gogarth Mostyn and shared Bryn with Labour. Plaid Cymru, unsurprisingly do best inland notably in the small market town of Llanrwst on the River Conwy, and in picturesque Betws-y-Coed, as the proportion of Welsh speakers is much higher in these parts.
The Gwynedd (and former Arfon constituency) section is much harder to analyse, not because of Independent strength but because the Plaid Cymru dominance of the council (44 seats compared with 23 Independents and just 2 from other parties) does not reflect general election behaviour. In particular the Labour party has almost no presence in municipal elections. They only put up 10 candidates for the 69 available places in the most recent Gwynedd elections in 2022, and most of them finished bottom of the poll. The major exceptions to this were outside the areas placed in Bangor Aberconwy (the only one they won was in the Hendre division of Caernarfon town, majority 7, and they missed out in Yr Eifl on the Llyn peninsula by 2 votes). Yet there is Labour strength in the Gwynedd part of the new constituency, for example in Bangor itself.
Bangor is the major urban unit of the Arfon section of the new seat, with a population of 17,000 in 2021, though it is perhaps a little fortunate to be given the lead in the name, given that Aberconwy donates almost 65% of the electorate, and the ex-Arfon sector includes other communities like Bethesda inland and Abergwyngregyn near the Menai Strait. Nevertheless, Bangor is a distinguished place – a city ‘by ancient prescriptive right, and confirmed as such in 1927 and again by Queen Elizabeth II in 1974, when it was abolished as a borough in the local government reforms. As well as a cathedral, it also has a long-established university, set mainly on the hills of Upper Bangor, where well over half the residents are full time students. The cosmopolitan ambience casts doubt on that Welsh Nationalist municipal dominance. Even though Plaid Cymru did indeed win the Canol Bangor ward which covers the university area, only 754 votes were cast in total in 2022, and there was no Labour candidate here either. Even though Hywel Williams won Arfon in every one of its elections, Labour held his majority to between 3,688 (in 2015) to just 92 in 2017, and they still polled over 10,000 votes in December 2019.Their lack of local government organisation - indeed of presence - belies a substantial level of support scattered across the whole of the former Arfon.
Oddly, therefore, it is the party which never won either Aberconwy or Arfon which starts favourite for the first parliamentary contest in Bangor Aberconwy. Labour, having narrowly missed out in a number of occasions in both the predecessor seats, look to have the consistent strength, especially when on a roll as in the latter half of the 2019-24 period, finally to make a breakthrough. For Plaid Cymru, Arfon’s abolition is a definite loss, and for the Tories, Bangor Aberconwy will probably become a notional loss. Labour, with their opposition split between the Nationalist Welsh speaking areas and the more Tory north coast, are in all senses the winners after these particular boundary changes.
Thank you to Lord Twaddleford for clearly indicating to me that he may not find time to update his profiles such as Aberconwy and Arfon from the previous sub-board.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.6% 116/575
Owner occupied 66.1% 287/575
Private rented 19.7% 222/575
Social rented 14.3% 322/575
White 95.2% 175/575
Black 0.6% 439/575
Asian 2.3% 366/575
Managerial & professional 30.2% 341/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.2% 299/575
Degree level 34.7% 216/575
No qualifications 16.0% 375/575
Students 11.3% 72/575
General Election 2019: Aberconwy
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robin Millar 14,687 46.1 +1.5
Labour Emily Owen 12,653 39.7 -2.9
Plaid Cymru Lisa Goodier 2,704 8.5 -1.4
Liberal Democrats Jason Edwards 1,821 5.7 +2.8
C Majority 2,034 6.4 +4.4
Turnout 31,865 71.3 +0.3
Registered electors 44,699
Conservative hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Bangor Aberconwy consists of
100% of Bangor Aberconwy
40.9% of Arfon
14.2% of Clwyd West
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Both contributing divisions were heavily undersized in terms of electorate. Aberconwy had fewer than 45,000 voters at the time of the December 2019 general election, and Arfon just over 42,000. The justification in both cases was not merely the long-standing guarantee of a minimum number of Westminster seats for Wales, that resulted in a significantly lower electorate quota compared with the other three parts of the UK. They also were favoured on grounds of rugged and difficult terrain, so had even fewer voters than average, even for Wales. Aberconwy, although its population was mainly concentrated on the north Wales coast, extended south into the mountains, such as Glyder Fach (994 metres), around Betws-y-Coed and Capel Curig (known as the wettest place in Wales, which is saying something). Arfon went further – or rather higher – in that regard, including within its boundaries the loftiest of all, Yr Wyddfa (Snowdon).
However, the ‘2023 review’ ended these privileges, and Bangor Aberconwy was constituted with an initial electorate count of 70,438, which is only 4% below the UK quota set for the review (73,393) and thus within the acceptable 5% tolerance. It has lost some of the most mountainous section, as the very heart of Snowdonia including the highest part has been placed in Dwyfor Meifironydd, which has also taken the other 59% of Arfon’s voters. On the other hand, Bangor Aberconwy also includes 14% of the former Clywd West, and this is essentially its rural and hilly south western quadrant, not its Anglicised coast - as may be demonstrated from its ward names and electorates: from Conwy borough: Betws yn Rhos (1,623), Llangernyw (1,104), Llansannan (1,495) and Uwchaled (1,139); and from Denbighshire Efenechtyd (1,321) and Llanrhaeadr-Yng-Nghinmeirch (1,496).
These are clearly not typical parts of the usually Conservative Clwyd West, but politically the main sections of Bangor Aberconwy come from two constituencies with very different electoral traditions. Essentially Aberconwy was a marginal Tory seat with a strong Labour challenge while Arfon had always been won by Plaid Cymru, but also with Labour close behind.
Taking Aberconwy first, since its creation in 2010 (also Arfon’s first contest) it has been a classic Conservative/Labour marginal, though the Tories have won on each of the four occasions, with a majority ranging from a high of 13.3% in 2015 to a low of 2% (in 2017). In 2019 a new candidate, Robin Millar took over from Guto Bebb, one of the victims of the ‘Brexit’ whip removal in September 2019, and held on by 6.4% or a majority of 2,034.
Despite the acreage of the inland section, Aberconwy was dominated by the coastal strip from Llanfairfechan through the seaide resort Penmaenmawr and dramatically castellated Conwy (the name of a similar constituency before 2010) to the largest town by far, Llandudno (2021 population just under 20,000), ending in the east at Penrhyn Bay. The current internal political makeup of the larger, Aberconwy, element of the new constutuency is clouded both by a large number of strong Independent candidatures (they returned 22 of the 55 councillors in the most recent Conwy county borough elections, in May 2022) and local government boundary changes which meant that this contests were not on the same electoral divisions as used by the Commission. However, it is clear that Labour are competitive in most of the urban units. In 2022 they took the top spot in the elections in Penmaenmawr, the Pandy division of eastern Llanfairfechan, Conwy itself, and the Gogarth Mostyn division of Llandudno – which is the one covering the dominant physical feature of St Ormes Head, as well as Tudno, which covers the south Llandudno neighbourhoods where most if its social rented housing is to be found. Labour too one of the seats too in the Llandudno Junction area (Glyn y Mark division). In most of these cases the representation was shared with Independents, not another party, but not all.
The Conservatives do best in the more middle class and owner occupied urban neighbourhoods, such as Craig-y-Don in Llandudno itself and Deganwy on the way from there to Llandudno Junction. They took two of the three seats in Gogarth Mostyn and shared Bryn with Labour. Plaid Cymru, unsurprisingly do best inland notably in the small market town of Llanrwst on the River Conwy, and in picturesque Betws-y-Coed, as the proportion of Welsh speakers is much higher in these parts.
The Gwynedd (and former Arfon constituency) section is much harder to analyse, not because of Independent strength but because the Plaid Cymru dominance of the council (44 seats compared with 23 Independents and just 2 from other parties) does not reflect general election behaviour. In particular the Labour party has almost no presence in municipal elections. They only put up 10 candidates for the 69 available places in the most recent Gwynedd elections in 2022, and most of them finished bottom of the poll. The major exceptions to this were outside the areas placed in Bangor Aberconwy (the only one they won was in the Hendre division of Caernarfon town, majority 7, and they missed out in Yr Eifl on the Llyn peninsula by 2 votes). Yet there is Labour strength in the Gwynedd part of the new constituency, for example in Bangor itself.
Bangor is the major urban unit of the Arfon section of the new seat, with a population of 17,000 in 2021, though it is perhaps a little fortunate to be given the lead in the name, given that Aberconwy donates almost 65% of the electorate, and the ex-Arfon sector includes other communities like Bethesda inland and Abergwyngregyn near the Menai Strait. Nevertheless, Bangor is a distinguished place – a city ‘by ancient prescriptive right, and confirmed as such in 1927 and again by Queen Elizabeth II in 1974, when it was abolished as a borough in the local government reforms. As well as a cathedral, it also has a long-established university, set mainly on the hills of Upper Bangor, where well over half the residents are full time students. The cosmopolitan ambience casts doubt on that Welsh Nationalist municipal dominance. Even though Plaid Cymru did indeed win the Canol Bangor ward which covers the university area, only 754 votes were cast in total in 2022, and there was no Labour candidate here either. Even though Hywel Williams won Arfon in every one of its elections, Labour held his majority to between 3,688 (in 2015) to just 92 in 2017, and they still polled over 10,000 votes in December 2019.Their lack of local government organisation - indeed of presence - belies a substantial level of support scattered across the whole of the former Arfon.
Oddly, therefore, it is the party which never won either Aberconwy or Arfon which starts favourite for the first parliamentary contest in Bangor Aberconwy. Labour, having narrowly missed out in a number of occasions in both the predecessor seats, look to have the consistent strength, especially when on a roll as in the latter half of the 2019-24 period, finally to make a breakthrough. For Plaid Cymru, Arfon’s abolition is a definite loss, and for the Tories, Bangor Aberconwy will probably become a notional loss. Labour, with their opposition split between the Nationalist Welsh speaking areas and the more Tory north coast, are in all senses the winners after these particular boundary changes.
Thank you to Lord Twaddleford for clearly indicating to me that he may not find time to update his profiles such as Aberconwy and Arfon from the previous sub-board.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.6% 116/575
Owner occupied 66.1% 287/575
Private rented 19.7% 222/575
Social rented 14.3% 322/575
White 95.2% 175/575
Black 0.6% 439/575
Asian 2.3% 366/575
Managerial & professional 30.2% 341/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.2% 299/575
Degree level 34.7% 216/575
No qualifications 16.0% 375/575
Students 11.3% 72/575
General Election 2019: Aberconwy
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robin Millar 14,687 46.1 +1.5
Labour Emily Owen 12,653 39.7 -2.9
Plaid Cymru Lisa Goodier 2,704 8.5 -1.4
Liberal Democrats Jason Edwards 1,821 5.7 +2.8
C Majority 2,034 6.4 +4.4
Turnout 31,865 71.3 +0.3
Registered electors 44,699
Conservative hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Bangor Aberconwy consists of
100% of Bangor Aberconwy
40.9% of Arfon
14.2% of Clwyd West
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 19355 | 40.0% |
| Lab | 18606 | 38.4% |
| Plaid Cymru | 7849 | 16.2% |
| LD | 2142 | 4.4% |
| Brexit | 455 | 0.9% |
| | ||
| Majority | 749 | 1.6% |
